The 11th feels like 3,6 to me. Why would anyone want any horse who ran already in this race?

JV will be at Keeneland.

You prefer just guessing on if a firster can run? Seems like a solid way to attack a pick 6.

A chance to discuss races without insulting me? Cool. First off, I won't play that pick 6. I might play some Keeneland Friday and wait for Aqu Saturday. If I were playing I would roll with 3,6. I don't like anything that's run. We know Pletcher is deadly first out, and KMC can hit. Both horses are well bred, especially the 6. It's not the strongest opinion, but it's how I would play the race.

And it's a horrible way to try and play a pick 6. Who cares if you are insulted? Your presence here is insulting.

Multi race exotics are all about getting through the races you don't have a strong opinion on, IMO. If you don't have a strong opinion, it makes no sense to just guess and limit yourself to 2 horses.

We lost each other there. I was happy that you didn't insult me. Now I do feel a bit insulted, but it's fine. Like I said I'm not playing it. I disagree with you though. If you don't have a strong opinion you spread deeper and spend more $?

Rosario is only 5 wins behind him, if he gets closer on Wednesday and Thursday wonder if he will regret not sticking around on Friday.

You do your best to get through the leg, while going light in the legs you have a stronger opinion in. You don't have to hit the all button, but if Fogozano wins as the favorite and cost you the pick 6, while you catch a price or two in the other legs, wouldn't you feel kind of dumb?

Hard to believe that Rosario would give up his mount on Fire Guard on FRI to challenge for the riding title at GP after cashing out in Dubai.

I get it. In this specific race I can't make Fogozano at all. He would be the type of chalk I'd totally toss in my pick 3's.

Those were my two strongest opinions as well, along with the mentioned Fogonazo. I'll probably structure the ticket such that I have to get one or the other home to have a realistic chance. Right now my ticket is $565.60 before scratches (which includes AE's that won't draw in) if I bet some multiples on my stronger tickets. $417.20 if I single bet every ticket. Since I'm more than likely going to have a group with around a grand total I'll be adding rather than subtracting. It's a very daunting sequence.

As for race 10- before seeing the Thorographs I have it as 5,10 A's 4,12 B's 3,7 C's. I think the 1 is done at this level with this trainer, the 2 hasn't run a winning race at this level since last May, the 6 is an easy toss, 8 isn't impossible and may add him back in but significant step up in class, the 9 is an easy toss, and the 11 is consistent but not good enough to win.

The hardest leg for me is the first. The only two I feel confident tossing are the 1 and 13. The 1 draws the rail for its debut, works are ok but nothing special, terrible first out trainer, and they only paid $2k at a mixed sale when it had been working already for the previous owner. The 13, by a sire I've never even heard of, debuts for a trainer that hasn't won a race like, ever and a jockey that has 8 wins in 2 years against a bunch of monsters. Would be the ultimate putover. Any of the rest can win. I have it as 2,3,6,10 A's 4,5,8,11 B's 7,9,12 C's, and that is not even confident.

A pick 3 and a pick 6 are very different bets.

Why would anyone want a firster against a horse that already ran a winning race? Did you watch it? He missed the break and lost 2 lengths and stayed on nicely against a tough field. Four have come back and three ran well, the other was the 6th place horse beaten 40 lengths. Velazquez jumps on when he had two other great options (3,10). Lochte looks like a horse to me that takes a bunch of money and finishes an indifferent 5th. Obviously I'm not betting against Pletcher in his playground hard with the 3 though.

JV won't be there Phil.

Band Is Passing was a multiple stakes winner at Calder.

Just hit the all button or single Pletcher's horse for me. Tough sequence.

I'd feel alot better about the $260k for the 2 if it was someone other than Bear Stables. He throws away money like Klaravich on underbred horses that run fast furlongs at under tack shows like it's going out of style. This one went 21 2/5 which was tied for 50th best out of 250 (on synthetic of course)... decent but not great. Certainly has a chance though.

I like your thoughts on Herd Mentality (speaking of Klaravich at 2yo sales), very live at 10 or 12/1. No times available at the FTM sale though.

He may not be, but I generally don't let riders influence my decisions- but I'll definitely look at if he has options.

Purses are mostly better at GP than KEE, for what it's worth.

Never heard of him. You're right about where he ran- he swept the CRC turf series back in the early 2000's. Only 9 runners to race.

I hear ya. I don't think he is going to give up the mount on Jack Milton. I could be wrong.
As for this pick 6 and pick 6's in general I'm not really equipped to discuss them. I don't play them. I was interested in talking the races.

Herd Mentality is the only firster other than Pletcher's that I'm seriously considering. One Brave Warrior looks to be pretty fit but I generally don't like Proctor in this kind of spot.

Fogonazo broke about 2 slow in that last. Think he will be right on/near the pace with a solid break. I would be against McLaughlin's first timer; his horses always seem to run much better in their 2nd start. The sleeper may be Bob and the Gang, who led two tough horses for 4 furlongs back on March 9. Pletcher's runner can't be dismissed.

Race 11
In Fogonazo's debut, he did break slow,made a nice middle move and stayed in the race although nobody was passing anyone. My worry about him is the 2 months since his last race and the erratic work pattern since. I'm using him, but need to include Siliver Lining John and Herd Mentality too.

I think I'll stand against the Proctor horse, and the Kirian horse looks like he'll need one. The Parboo horse (11) worries me, as does Bob and the Gang, who showed speed and faded in his debut on the inside going 7F. Cuts back, bullet work, jock upgrade.....some things to consider.

Herd Mentality worked an eighth at the sale in 10.1 and was pretty impressive. Big price for a son of Dance With Ravens, even if his half-brother Romancing the Gold was somewhat "hot" at the time. I'd have to think the horse could be live.

Klaravich 1st time starters are typically very very live when sprinting.....and it seems the ones they give to Pompay even more so. I will be narrow in this race for sure. I will probably be 5 7 and allow myself big coverage elsewhere. Need strong opinions in this sequence and this will be one of mine.

The worst race in the sequence, IMO, is the $6250 claimer. There's a few no-chancers, and maybe 4 or even 5 that could possibly win, but I don't see any of them being 10-1 or higher.

I'm still wrestling with the 12th.
I keep ending up on Film Making, but he's such a hanger and that
1 for 19 record is just staring me in the face. There looks to be a few who need the lead, so a decent pace seems assured and I don't envision someone stealing it on the front end. The 10 Forever Conga is my second choice right now but after that, I'm just not sure.

The weather forecast is looking grim for today:

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/Tornado...201465351.html

I can't trust Film Making, he really is a hanger's hanger. I think that Diez may be live for Wolfson off the troubled trip last out and an upgrade to Castellano. If he can break decently and get a mid pack trip saving ground from the 2 hole, there should be plenty of speed here to close into. Other then that, I am having a hard time making a case for anyone in this field.

I'm wondering if the race will stay on the turf. Good chance of heavy afternoon rain.

it's the last day of the meet. it won't come off the grass.

i meant "will".

It's been raining in Clearwater all day, and this is heading towards South Fl:



On or off, it is going to be a mess.

$1,961,806.16 the official C/O into closing day.

its going to be huge tomorrow.

Great, a sloppy mess and probably lots of scratches to come. No need to stay up all night capping now.

Anyone else think Running Wildcat might relish the 7 furlong distance tomorrow in the 10th? ESP if the track is muddy.

I like the Vitali in the 12th too. My top choice in that one is the horse to his inside, Forever Conga. 10,2,11,3,9 in there. I'll probably end up only going 3 deep.

I was thinking the same thing about Running Wildcat. And Vitali/Bocachica have been cleaning up in these cheap claimers all meet.

All Turf races in the Rainbow 6 sequence are OFF THE TURF per Mike Welsch tweet, @DRFWelsch

This is great news. I hope it is a scratch fest!

There are quite a number of scratches, but you have horses drawing in, too. Doesn't help that much. Also the likely PT fav got scratched in the 11th.

I think two of those three races are now a whole lot less competitive with the move to dirt.

I happen to disagree with you, I think the sequence became much easier with the three surface switches.