I'll use ateam's pick 4 to show why 4 singles in a row pays the same as his $30 investment would have when each play is parlayed.

Tampa 7
$.50 PK4 5,7,10/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,10,11/3
Starting with $10 to win on the three horses in the first leg...
1)winner paid $15.80 $79 return/4=$19.75 win on each entrant in leg 2
2)winner paid $31.20 $308.10 return/5=$61.62 win on each entrant in leg 3
3)winner paid $15.20 $468.312 return=$468.312 win on #3 in leg 4
4)winner paid $4.40 $1030.2864 returned on the parlay
$1030.2864 is the amount returned on a straight $0.50 win parlay.

It's a long story why I've stayed away.

But to continue on what you have started, since January 24th, it has paid an average of 2.34X the parlay (inclusive of the day where it was 111k on a 408k parlay) with 5 of those days exceeding 3.5X. To put that in perspective, I ran some numbers on recent pick 3's at Gulfstream and the late pick 4 and pick 6 at Aqueduct.

GP P3's: average of 1.40X, low of .498X, high of 2.555X.
AQU P4's: average of 1.91X, low of 1.14X, high of 3.59X.
AQU P6's: average of 2.31X on carryover days/1.94X on noncarryover days

Further, the payout relative to parlay is only relevant when the pool is sufficiently deep, which is why I chose GP & AQU as the control groups. The probability of a very high or low payout goes up significantly when the number of winning tickets falls into the single digits- which explains the two-ticket .27X day. Take a look at small tracks where there are frequently pool sweeps; the payoffs can be absurd (in both directions.)

So the Rainbow 6 is actually outperforming traditionally "good" wagers on a parlay comparison, offers players an affordable entry to a traditionally difficult wager, and has been generating massive handle on a daily basis. Because on the surface the "effective" takeout is high it's easy to bash, but the reality determined from some simple number crunching debases that theory.

Why is this the case? To me it's best described as sitting at a poker table where a third of the players are only there to chase the bad beat jackpot- freely handing over their money to the conscious player. The next third understand the rules of the game, but only have a basic knowledge of strategy. The final third has stepped down from the higher limit table and understands the nuances of the game.

Could this be the day in which it is finally hit!?

A 56/1 longshot won leg #1.

If it doesn't fall today, the carryover might make it to closing day.

considering the 2/6 sequence was 5-1,17-1,25-1,5-1,16-1, and 9-1 with multiple winners i'm not getting worried unless there's another bomb.

There's only 1,369 live combos left with 3 races to go.

This has a great chance to get hit with only one winner.

Only 60 live combos with 2 races left to go.

The real question is which of those are unique.

1, 2, 3, 7, 11 take it down. $3.6MM.

1-2-3-7-11 Pays it... I'm rooting for all others.

1,2,3,7,11 would take it down.

If the 1, 2, 3, 7, or 11 win ... it gets hit for $3.6 million.

All of those five horses are currently single digit odds.

Amazingly, two winning combos are alive to #12. The rest are all uncovered and would be 5 of 6's.

The chances of this getting hit with a single ticket are certainly a lot better than not right now.

They have run these 8.5 T Mclm 35 11 times during the meet and the favorite has won 5 of them. Somebody may be a really big Edgar Prado fan in 15 minutes.

i'm rooting for a dead heat.

Perfect time for Timothy Hills to improve his win % w/ maiden claimers!

Late scratch? Do they get the fave? If so, does that kill the lone winner on the fave? Crazy stuff...

Don't think so, since as Doug said, no one was 5-for-5 closing into the 4.

Well, on the bright side, there's still plenty of time to build up another seven-figure jackpot for closing day.

i hope they can release the structure of the entire ticket. it would be interesting to see how much was spent and if it was built on handicapping, lucky numbers, or some combination of the two.

From Gulfstream Park:
The winning 10-cent Rainbow 6 was played at The Meadowlands

The winning 10-cent Rainbow 6 ticket cost $3,118.50

The 56/1 shot winner in leg #1 triggered this...The interesting thing about him was that he was making a trainer change.

If you go back to his Pre-Jesus Chavez form, this horse had standout figures in that race to go along with his perfect rail post position at 8.5f on dirt.

He had the standout 52 figure on dirt in his final start before Jesus took over his training.







Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say I bet horses like this one, but this horse after its performance today simply looks like a horse that wouldn't run for Jesus Chavez. The new trainer today, simply got him to revert back to the pre-Jesus form.

Jesus is a career 8% trainer. This horse today certainly doesn't make him look like a great trainer.

Jesus should stick to saving instead of training

I be willing to bet they used the ALL button in a few of those races with that 1st leg being a high probability ALL button.

He bought 31,185 different combos with that ticket.

That's not a normal bet. If you're going to play that much money playing it, you have to play the thing irrationally if your goal is to have a shot to take it down.

One thing we can say is that he was 5 deep in the last race

1,2,3,7,11

everything else was 5 of 6

Had a Thoro-Graph sheet that hinted at his potential too. Had races as fast as the favorites and was circling back towards them..

And as Andy Serling says, "Bad horses win bad races."

And... Just pulled up the Thoro-Graph GP Analysis to find this:

BEST BET 5th-Keyner Veloz could be headed back to a top and is a strong play at the price. Keyner Veloz to win at 10-1 or more and a three horse box with Lunar Event and Monty’s Tune. B+

well the certainly deserve applause for putting that out there as a play, not a biggest fan of their stuff but this time they nailed it.

I read the guy played ALL the first 3 legs and singled the 7 in the last leg.

So others had the other live tix? You sure about that one?

I read that a couple places online. - im not sure of anything i read on the internet. Ill try to post the link.

I cant link because im on mobile but under Gulfstreams FB page this person seemed pretty sure of things.......<quote>ticket was purchased at Favorites in Woodbridge, OTW and yes he singled out the 7 horse in the last leg. He was screaming for joy and security surrounded him to guard him and his winning ticket. To the best of my knowledge he is either the owner or part owner of the 7 horse and that is why he singled it. Congrats to Favorites, number 1 off track wagering facility in the USA.</quote>

Good things happen when you get away from Jesus.

DRF's Jersey-based Kenny Peck has it coming from Favorites too. In terms of ownership, the winner is one of the Horse Racing League teams' horses (Joe Orseno/Awesome Again). As kooky as the League idea sounded, the people involved seem to be having a lot of fun with it.

And if the story is accurate and the guy singled to the winner on his HRL team as reported, the $6,000 buy-in ends up a great investment.

so what would of happened if another ticket won?

Jerry.. The jackpot would have continued to build and the 2 winners would have split that day's bet-in handle. The #12 had 2 live tickets to it and had it won, the two would have rec'd $105k each..

thanks, so I guess the bet was worth it then