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-   -   Wagering Strategy for Breeders Cup (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48885)

goodcopy 10-26-2012 05:11 PM

Amen!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 898529)
There is a common perception among horseplayers that if a horse they like is too high in odds, something must be wrong with it.

That whole dead on the board thing.

I stopped doing that the first (and only) time I talked myself off a $50 winner.

That is what makes me a good handicapper but a lousy gambler!
So many times I have got off a horse because of "Hi-Odds"dead on the board.
This is The Bain of my existance!
That and the S.D.Chargers!:eek:

richard 10-27-2012 01:46 PM

There are so many good horses in the BC races you do need some luck to win however you bet.
http://www.hbo.com/luck/index.html#/...SVpgIAXbkXOA==
The pace scenario will be important to find an edge for a horse.

Thunder Gulch 10-29-2012 08:16 PM

I'm going to disagree with most of you on this thread. This day is all about the verticals, and the supers are the place to be. Playing in increments of 10 cents allows you to spread to catch the bombs. Look at the payoffs from the last several years and you'll see those pools offer the best chance to catch real jackpots, even when favorites are involved.

Rootdog1 10-30-2012 02:39 PM

What are the wagering options? $.10 supers? $0.50 pk3s and pk4s? $0.50 tris?

Thanks

Dahoss 11-03-2012 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898445)
Ill donate $100 to any charity of your choice if any of those horses run even 1-2.

:tro::tro:

cmorioles 11-03-2012 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 900297)
:tro::tro:

I hope he doesn't casino it.

Dahoss 11-03-2012 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 900303)
I hope he doesn't casino it.

It's 1/9 he does.

cmorioles 11-03-2012 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898468)
This is different. Ill tell you what, since you have always had issue with me.....Ill send you the money if any of those horses run 1-2.

Please keep us posted.

Coach Pants 11-03-2012 05:56 PM

I went from a hysterical laugh to tears. If I had only read this thread beforehand...

pointman 11-03-2012 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 900312)
I went from a hysterical laugh to tears. If I had only read this thread beforehand...

:tro:

bare it all 11-03-2012 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898445)
Ill donate $100 to any charity of your choice if any of those horses run even 1-2.

So $200 now?

Dahoss 11-03-2012 06:05 PM

Keeps getting better...

I hope Port Conway Lane actually played that bet.

moses 11-03-2012 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 898444)
Treasure Beach/little Mike/dullahan/
Trinniberg/
All/
All

I hope you made this bet.

Coach Pants 11-03-2012 06:10 PM

Dude if he did bring on two more bombs. Maybe he could be nice and pay tard's back payments on child support.

:D

Sightseek 11-03-2012 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 900328)
Dude if he did bring on two more bombs. Maybe he could be nice and pay tard's back payments on child support.

:D

Ouch.


:D

Bogey 11-03-2012 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898445)
Ill donate $100 to any charity of your choice if any of those horses run even 1-2.

All time classic!!!! LOL

GPK 11-03-2012 06:24 PM

Now officially a top 3 all time NT thread.

dagolfer33 11-03-2012 06:48 PM

There is NO more potent force in the universe than RHT.

jms62 11-03-2012 06:56 PM

We should have tabbed him to stop Hurricane Sanday. Looking at the Will-Pays that guy is either very happy or extremely distraught.

dagolfer33 11-03-2012 06:59 PM

Now if I could get him to say the following statement, "Obama will win the election." I know Jms is hoping for the opposite. By the way, absolutely fanfuc*k*ingtabulous day today at the windows Jms. AWESOME:$:

jms62 11-03-2012 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 900365)
Now if I could get him to say the following statement, "Obama will win the election." I know Jms is hoping for the opposite. By the way, absolutely fanfuc*k*ingtabulous day today at the windows Jms. AWESOME:$:

Thanks..

Coach Pants 11-03-2012 07:30 PM

Tony Bennett for the post parade?

Am I getting troll'd?

RockHardTen1985 11-03-2012 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 900308)
Please keep us posted.

Ill do it.

goodcopy 11-03-2012 10:02 PM

$hit the late pick 4 with Little Mike and Trinninberg
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898442)
Dullahan has no shot to win any race that he is entered in. Same w/ Little Mike. Triniberg? Another toss for me. Treasure Beach, another toss.
That saves you a few bucks.

Late Spread Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER/TREASURE BEACH/SHARETA/LITTLE MIKE/DULLAHAN/
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET/TRINNIBERG/THE LUMBER GUY/SUM OF THE PARTS/SECOND CITY/COIL
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN/WILLCOX INN/TURBO COMPRESSOR/TRAILBLAZER/OBVIOUSLY/MOONLIGHT CLOUD/LITTLE MIKE
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/RON THE GREEK/FORT LARNED
Tickets created using TicketMaker
Available exclusively in DRF.com's Formulator PPs
Santa Anita - 11/03/2012 - Pick P4 - Starting With Race 9
Page 1 of 1
Verbal Description
Bet Type Ticket Description Cost of Ticket
All A Entries 1 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 4,5 $12.00
A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 4,5 $12.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 4,11 with 2,6 with 4,5 $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 3 with 4,5 $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 10 $6.00
A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 4,11 with 2,6 with 4,5 $8.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,9 with 3 with 4,5 $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 10 $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 4,11 with 3 with 4,5 $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 4,11 with 2,6 with 10 $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 3 with 10 $3.00
A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5,9 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 4,5 $18.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 5 with 4,5 $6.00
Total: $99.00
Tabular Description
Bet Type Ticket Race 9 Race 10 Race 11 Race 12 $ Per Bet Cost of Ticket
All A Entries 1 3,12 6,7,9 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $12.00
A's with One B 2 1,7 6,7,9 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $12.00
3 3,12 4,11 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $8.00
4 3,12 6,7,9 3 4,5 $0.50 $6.00
5 3,12 6,7,9 2,6 10 $0.50 $6.00
A's with Two B's 6 1,7 4,11 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $8.00
7 1,7 6,7,9 3 4,5 $0.50 $6.00
8 1,7 6,7,9 2,6 10 $0.50 $6.00
9 3,12 4,11 3 4,5 $0.50 $4.00
10 3,12 4,11 2,6 10 $0.50 $4.00
11 3,12 6,7,9 3 10 $0.50 $3.00
A's with One C 12 4,5,9 6,7,9 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $18.00
13 3,12 6,7,9 5 4,5 $0.50 $6.00
Total: $99.00

@$.50per=$762.00 for all combos(Not the way you would play a "Spead Ticket I.E."TicketMaker" by Daily Racingform)
:$::zz:$5647.40
I,m Gladd I didn't throw out L.M and Trinn:eek:

DaTruth 11-03-2012 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodcopy (Post 900431)
Late Spread Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER/TREASURE BEACH/SHARETA/LITTLE MIKE/DULLAHAN/
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET/TRINNIBERG/THE LUMBER GUY/SUM OF THE PARTS/SECOND CITY/COIL
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN/WILLCOX INN/TURBO COMPRESSOR/TRAILBLAZER/OBVIOUSLY/MOONLIGHT CLOUD/LITTLE MIKE
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/RON THE GREEK/FORT LARNED

@$.50per=$762.00 for all combos(Not the way you would play a "Spead Ticket I.E."TicketMaker" by Daily Racingform)
:$::zz:$5647.40
I,m Gladd I didn't throw out L.M and Trinn:eek:

I thought The Fugue ran yesterday.

lemoncrush 11-03-2012 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodcopy (Post 900431)
Late Spread Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER/TREASURE BEACH/SHARETA/LITTLE MIKE/DULLAHAN/
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET/TRINNIBERG/THE LUMBER GUY/SUM OF THE PARTS/SECOND CITY/COIL
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN/WILLCOX INN/TURBO COMPRESSOR/TRAILBLAZER/OBVIOUSLY/MOONLIGHT CLOUD/LITTLE MIKE
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/RON THE GREEK/FORT LARNED
Tickets created using TicketMaker
Available exclusively in DRF.com's Formulator PPs
Santa Anita - 11/03/2012 - Pick P4 - Starting With Race 9
Page 1 of 1
Verbal Description
Bet Type Ticket Description Cost of Ticket
All A Entries 1 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 4,5 $12.00
A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 4,5 $12.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 4,11 with 2,6 with 4,5 $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 3 with 4,5 $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 10 $6.00
A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 4,11 with 2,6 with 4,5 $8.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,9 with 3 with 4,5 $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 10 $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 4,11 with 3 with 4,5 $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 4,11 with 2,6 with 10 $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 3 with 10 $3.00
A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5,9 with 6,7,9 with 2,6 with 4,5 $18.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 5 with 4,5 $6.00
Total: $99.00
Tabular Description
Bet Type Ticket Race 9 Race 10 Race 11 Race 12 $ Per Bet Cost of Ticket
All A Entries 1 3,12 6,7,9 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $12.00
A's with One B 2 1,7 6,7,9 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $12.00
3 3,12 4,11 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $8.00
4 3,12 6,7,9 3 4,5 $0.50 $6.00
5 3,12 6,7,9 2,6 10 $0.50 $6.00
A's with Two B's 6 1,7 4,11 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $8.00
7 1,7 6,7,9 3 4,5 $0.50 $6.00
8 1,7 6,7,9 2,6 10 $0.50 $6.00
9 3,12 4,11 3 4,5 $0.50 $4.00
10 3,12 4,11 2,6 10 $0.50 $4.00
11 3,12 6,7,9 3 10 $0.50 $3.00
A's with One C 12 4,5,9 6,7,9 2,6 4,5 $0.50 $18.00
13 3,12 6,7,9 5 4,5 $0.50 $6.00
Total: $99.00

@$.50per=$762.00 for all combos(Not the way you would play a "Spead Ticket I.E."TicketMaker" by Daily Racingform)
:$::zz:$5647.40
I,m Gladd I didn't throw out L.M and Trinn:eek:

Are you seriously red boarding a $762 pick 4 ticket that includes horses like the Fugue and emcee that didn't even enter the races you had then listed in?!?
:confused:

goodcopy 11-03-2012 11:07 PM

He Did
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth (Post 900438)
I thought The Fugue ran yesterday.

Thats why I post the actuale "Spread ticket I made" it was $99.00 and shows all the tickets I made to get to the winning one(Look at ticket #2 "all "a" and one "b"
I have been using ticket maker from D.R.F for the last six months with a now great return of investment!:$:

goodcopy 11-03-2012 11:33 PM

Check the original post
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush (Post 900441)
Are you seriously red boarding a $762 pick 4 ticket that includes horses like the Fugue and emcee that didn't even enter the races you had then listed in?!?
:confused:

10/28/2012
I think "Red Boarding" means posting after the fact,if so I don't care if you don't think I hit it I'll be making the deposit in the bank on monday:$: but my reply to Rock Hard Ten was intended to point out that I didn't throw out Little Mike or Trinninburg.
I save all my dated posted tickets on D.R.F ticket maker sight and if you make it worth my trouble I'll prove to you that this was my all time top Breeders Cup score (but thanks for trying to ruin the mood):mad:

South Beach Luv 11-04-2012 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodcopy (Post 900451)
10/28/2012
I think "Red Boarding" means posting after the fact,if so I don't care if you don't think I hit it I'll be making the deposit in the bank on monday:$: but my reply to Rock Hard Ten was intended to point out that I didn't throw out Little Mike or Trinninburg.
I save all my dated posted tickets on D.R.F ticket maker sight and if you make it worth my trouble I'll prove to you that this was my all time top Breeders Cup score (but thanks for trying to ruin the mood):mad:

You have been here since March 2008 but aren't sure what a redboard is? Nice.

Port Conway Lane 11-04-2012 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 900321)
Keeps getting better...

I hope Port Conway Lane actually played that bet.

I REALLY wish I had. Our group just got back from the track and we're all having fun reading the thread. Kiss of Life if there ever was one.:$:

richard 11-04-2012 01:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodcopy (Post 900451)
10/28/2012
I think "Red Boarding" means posting after the fact,if so I don't care if you don't think I hit it I'll be making the deposit in the bank on monday:$: but my reply to Rock Hard Ten was intended to point out that I didn't throw out Little Mike or Trinninburg.
I save all my dated posted tickets on D.R.F ticket maker sight and if you make it worth my trouble I'll prove to you that this was my all time top Breeders Cup score (but thanks for trying to ruin the mood):mad:

You are silly.

herkhorse 11-04-2012 05:35 AM

The best part is the GOAT getting skunked.

bare it all 11-04-2012 07:02 AM

Wish I had read Haskins BH piece for Saturday Longshots. He had the Classic exacta, Mizdirection, the Sprint tri, and the exacta in the Mile.

Sightseek 11-04-2012 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bare it all (Post 900468)
Wish I had read Haskins BH piece for Saturday Longshots. He had the Classic exacta, Mizdirection, the Sprint tri, and the exacta in the Mile.

Much is said about his "dapple report" in the days and weeks leading up to the Derby, but in 2006 he wrote an article about Premium Tap before the Breeder's Cup Classic. I hadn't considered Premium Tap at all. My strongest opinion was that Bernardini and Invasor were the very best horses and Lava Man was not going to hit the board (original I know). I went back and watched all of Premium Taps races after reading his article and this was the ticket I came up with afterwards:

Bernardini / Invasor, Premium Tap, Giacomo / Invasor, Premium Tap, Giacomo

Obviously after the race was run I wanted to jump off the largest bridge I could find, but I never forgot that Haskin article! :D

richard 11-04-2012 12:07 PM

I remember Haskin touting Invisible Ink for the Kentucky Derby. How I ever left Monarchos off my tickets I'll never know.

ADJMK 11-04-2012 01:21 PM

So much for the great theory we heard all week that horses that made their last starts at Belmont don't win BC races held at SA. Tell that to Shanghai Bobby, Tapizar, Fort Larned, Royal Delta,Little Mike,Zagora. SA -all Baffert all the time.(0-9)

Indian Charlie 11-04-2012 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK (Post 900495)
So much for the great theory we heard all week that horses that made their last starts at Belmont don't win BC races held at SA. Tell that to Shanghai Bobby, Tapizar, Fort Larned, Royal Delta,Little Mike,Zagora. SA -all Baffert all the time.(0-9)

Tell that to all the sand they added to the track to make it more like Belmont.


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