Derby Trail Forums - National Presidential Election contest thread

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Riot	10-30-2012 07:45 PM

Reuters/Ipsos Poll

Quote:

With two weeks to go before Election Day, a new Reuters/Ipsos forecast released today predicts an Electoral College landslide for President Barack Obama over Republican rival Mitt Romney.

Obama leads Romney by a point in the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll, 47-46. But results from Ipsos' tracking in key swing states leads to a projection of a much bigger Electoral College victory. The Ipsos projection has Obama winning the big three swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Ipsos' final Electoral College score: Obama wins 332-206. Here's what the firm's projected map looks like:

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama...#ixzz2ApgOrnjd

Nate Silver Five-Thirty-Eight

Quote:

Obama wins 194.6 vs 243.4

Ocala Mike

10-30-2012 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 899363)

The electoral count closest to the winner "wins" first - the correct Pres. pick only comes into play to break a tie.

Like I say, I like where I'm sitting, strategically (although I'm rooting for Joey)!

dalakhani

10-30-2012 11:02 PM

Obama 281

Ocala Mike

10-31-2012 01:03 AM

National Presidential Election contest thread

Well played, dalakhani. I hope you made the cutoff.

Rudeboyelvis

10-31-2012 11:40 AM

Obama and Romney will take their expected leaning and likely states, leaving a 95 votes up for grabs.

Obama will likely take OH(18) and WI(10).

Romney will likely take CO(9), FL(29), IA(6), NH(4), NV(6), and VA(10)

Final total - Romney 273; Obama 265

hi_im_god

10-31-2012 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 899409)

i don't see a single poll putting romney ahead in nevada. he's between 2.5 to 4.1 behind in most models. it's certainly not beyond a romney get but that seems like the longest stretch in what you're assuming. ohio looks tighter than nevada.

Rudeboyelvis

10-31-2012 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 899412)

The most recent poll for Nevada that I can find (NBC News / WSJ / Marist College) show 50-47 Obama with a 2% uncommitted and margin of error of +/- 5%.

If you want to make that bet, be my guest.

Rudeboyelvis

10-31-2012 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 899417)

The most recent poll for Nevada that I can find (NBC News / WSJ / Marist College) show 50-47 Obama with a 2% uncommitted and margin of error of +/- 5%.

If you want to make that bet, be my guest.

The most recent OH numbers are much closer, as I'mgod alluded to - the two most recent (10/28) polls:

Grove - 48/45 Obama
Rasmussen - 50-48 Romney

So it may well come down to who wins OH, but this notion that Obama can win the EC without OH does not add up.

pointmanscousin

10-31-2012 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 897805)

Pick the final electoral college count of the winning candidate.

You do not have to pick the winning candidate - only the electoral college vote count that candidate acquires.

Contest closes one week from today at 6:30pm (one week before the election).

There are 538 electoral votes. Thus your number must be a number between 270 (required to win) and 538.

No duplicate numbers - first come, first serve.

Winning number is closest to actual winning number without going over.

In case of ties, winner will be closest number under, with correct candidate chosen.

Jimmy cracked corn.....and I don't care.

Riot	10-31-2012 01:41 PM

Let's leave the contest open until day before election day - why not?

So far:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

dylbert

10-31-2012 10:21 PM

Romney = 274

Riot	10-31-2012 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dylbert (Post 899631)

Romney = 274

:tro:

pointmanscousin

10-31-2012 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 899437)

Let's leave the contest open until day before election day - why not?

So far:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 The Egyption - Riot(Jihadist)
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop
Jimmy Cracked Corn himself does not care-pointmanscousin

4444

Rupert Pupkin

11-01-2012 01:41 AM

Romney 278

bigrun

11-01-2012 11:48 AM

Obama just aced the election
Today's report on CNBC
Un-employment numbers down
Production numbers up
Housing numbers up
Auto sales up

Still time to change your number..

Also, yesterday the Donald made a humanitarian gesture to Obama, he extended the date of his offer to 5pm today....haha, you thought he gave the 5 mil to the Red Cross..:D

Also Colbert extended his offer of 1 mil to Trump to 5pm today...

bigrun

11-01-2012 12:12 PM

Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls.

Quote:

Theories that the decline in Mr. Obama’s polls that followed the first presidential debate in Denver would somehow skip the swing states were not looking good — as dubious as the idea that tornadoes “skip” houses.

Instead, at that point, Mr. Obama’s position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast had declined for seven consecutive days. If he stopped the bleeding there, he might still be the Electoral College favorite, albeit a narrow one. But it wasn’t clear where the bottom was.

It turned out, however, that the worst was almost over for him. Mr. Obama had one more terrible day in the polls, on Friday, Oct. 12, when Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to almost 40 percent in the forecast. But that was when Mr. Romney’s momentum stopped.

Since then, Mr. Obama’s standing has rebounded slightly. His position in the national polls has stabilized; although the national polls continue to tell a different story about the race than the state polls do; it can no longer be said that they have Mr. Obama behind. Read more…

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Rupert Pupkin

11-01-2012 01:18 PM

For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.

bigrun

11-01-2012 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 899711)

Please don't let it come down to Fla again...those old people there don't know how to use those hanging chad ballots...Is Jeb Bush still gov there?:D

Riot	11-01-2012 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 899711)

Or, a different opinion:

Quote:

As always, these are the TPM poll composites, with all pollsters included, even the GOP ones like Rasmussen and Gravis.

Florida flipped back Red today after it was briefly Blue yesterday because of outfits Gravis and We Ask America.

But regardless, the credible pollsters see it as a one-point game one way or another. So whether it's a 0.5-point Obama or Romney edge, fact is Florida is being decided by GOTV.

Florida and Nevada have seen very little change since a week ago, proving to be the most stubbornly stable of the lot. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio have edged up half a point or so, which may not seem like much, but it's Democratic direction and at the right time.

Romney and his allies are spending gazillions trying to drag Ohio and Wisconsin back into contention, but the numbers are going the opposite way.

As I noted yesterday, Romney's own support continues to fall.

He is now above 47 percent in just two states—Florida and North Carolina. Being stuck in the 44s to 46s won't get him anywhere near the White House.

State Obama Romney Margin Change from 10/24

National 47.4 46.1 1.3 +1.3

Colorado 48.9 46.3 2.6 +2.7

Florida 48.5 49 -0.5 -0.1

Iowa 48.9 45.2 3.7 +2.8

New Hampshire 48.3 45.2 3.1 +2.1

Nevada 50.3 46.1 4.2 +0.3

North Carolina 46.5 48 -1.5 +0.7

Ohio 49.2 46 3.2 +0.6

Virginia 48.9 46.4 2.5 +2.7

Wisconsin 49.4 46.1 3.3 +0.5

Calzone Lord

11-04-2012 11:24 AM

I see the election going 277-to-261 for Barack Hussein Obama.

Romney will pull off a few upsets. I think he wins New Hampshire. I think he wins Colorado even though most polls show him trailing there.

But, he falls just a bit short in the state of Ohio...and that costs him everything.

bigrun

11-04-2012 11:40 AM

Election 2012 State Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/

Riot	11-04-2012 04:11 PM

Okay- get entries in by Monday midnight: Pick the electoral college margin, without going over, of winning candidate. You don't have to name candidate.

In case of tie, getting the winning candidate correct will be the tiebreaker

So far:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
278 Romney - Rupert Pumpkin
277 Obama - Calzone Lord
274 Romney - Dylbert
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

OldDog

11-05-2012 12:15 PM

Romney 328

Riot	11-05-2012 02:47 PM

C'mon guys, check fivethirtyeight, TPM, Ipsos, Gallup, etc. and place your final wagers :)

Pick the final electoral college count of the winning candidate.
You do not have to pick the winning candidate - only the electoral college vote count that candidate acquires.

There are 538 electoral votes. Thus your number must be a number between 270 (required to win) and 538.

No duplicate numbers - first come, first serve.

Winning number is closest to actual winning number without going over.

In case of ties, winner will be closest number under, with correct candidate chosen.

328 Romney - Old Dog
311 Romney - joeydb
292 Obama - Antitrust
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
278 Romney - Rupert Pumpkin
277 Obama - Calzone Lord
274 Romney - Dylbert
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

Antitrust32

11-05-2012 03:26 PM

292 Obama

Riot	11-05-2012 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32 (Post 900631)

292 Obama

:tro: Got it.

bigrun

11-05-2012 04:01 PM

Here comes the ROVE PATCH. In case you want to change your vote..

Quote:

Last-minute Ohio voting machine software patch: If there's nothing to worry about, why are officials being secretive?

Last week, Bob Fitrakis and Gerry Bello at FreePress.org reported an important story concerning what they described as “uncertified ‘experimental’ software patches” being installed at the last minute on electronic vote tabulation systems in 39 Ohio counties.

http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/ohio...ting_machines/

Riot	11-05-2012 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigrun (Post 900638)

Here comes the ROVE PATCH. In case you want to change your vote..

Yeah - R- Secretary of State Ohio Jon Husted installing an illegal "test software patch" on voting machines in violation of his own state laws was noted days ago, it's working it's way through lawyers.

Husted also defying direct court order - for the second time - regarding absentee ballots was noted, too.

And down in Florida, lines were outrageous as R-Gov. Scott cut early voting days from 14 to 8, including the "souls to the polls" last Sunday before the election.

Early voting in both those states has overwhelmingly favored Democrats.

Remember 2004 when exit polling said Kerry distinctly won, but "magically" all those votes shifted Republican when final votes were tallied?

I predict we'll get no voting results from Ohio or Florida election night. If Obama wins North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado it won't matter.

UPDATE: Husted busted, hearing on illegal software patch by Federal Judge election day morning - see other thread.

bigrun

11-05-2012 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 900651)

Yeah - R- Secretary of State Ohio Jon Husted installing an illegal "test software patch" on voting machines in violation of his own state laws was noted days ago, it's working it's way through lawyers.

Husted also defying direct court order - for the second time - regarding absentee ballots was noted, too.

And down in Florida, lines were outrageous as R-Gov. Scott cut early voting days from 14 to 8, including the "souls to the polls" last Sunday before the election.

Early voting in both those states has overwhelmingly favored Democrats.

Remember 2004 when exit polling said Kerry distinctly won, but "magically" all those votes shifted Republican when final votes were tallied?

I predict we'll get no voting results from Ohio or Florida election night. If Obama wins North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado it won't matter.

UPDATE: Husted busted, hearing on illegal software patch by Federal Judge election day morning - see other thread.

He will have to do it in Northern VA, not around this part...and NC??

ShadowRoll

11-05-2012 07:31 PM

If Romney wins this election, I predict that within a week, the banks will be closed and the soldiers will be marching in the streets.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/humor/marching.asp

An old joke, but a good one.

bigrun

11-05-2012 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll (Post 900658)

:D
and all the political calls and tv ads will cease...please..

jms62

11-06-2012 05:05 AM

Obama 302

joeydb

11-06-2012 11:46 AM

Just for Reference:

Dick Morris predicts Romney 325
Michael Barone predicts Romney 315

Riot	11-06-2012 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 900766)

Just for Reference:

Dick Morris predicts Romney 325
Michael Barone predicts Romney 315

Um ... do you know Dick Morris' accuracy rate? He's a long-standing joke. Dick saying any candidate will win ensures his opponent will cream him :D

Apparently they are not even reading the right wing polls (which are predicting an Obama win yesterday)

Riot	11-06-2012 11:54 AM

Final entrants: most accurate electoral count of winner - without going over - wins this.

328 Romney - Old Dog
311 Romney - joeydb
302 Obama - jms62
292 Obama - Antitrust
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
278 Romney - Rupert Pumpkin
277 Obama - Calzone Lord
274 Romney - Dylbert
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

Frankly, I think Old Dog or joeydb will win, but the next president is obama, with those high totals.

Antitrust32

11-06-2012 12:06 PM

I call for a recount! jms's change came after the midnight deadline! It's a hanging chad vote!

Riot	11-06-2012 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32 (Post 900772)

I call for a recount! jms's change came after the midnight deadline! It's a hanging chad vote!

Humm ... you have a point! Posted 6:05am eastern time! We need a poll judge! We need an election monitor!

We need a vote!
Should jms entry be allowed, or not? Vote here!

Yes

No

Yum, I love Keeneland bread pudding!

Antitrust32

11-06-2012 12:17 PM

This thread may end up in the Supreme Court if JMS wins :)

Antitrust32

11-06-2012 12:18 PM

mmm, bread pudding.

bigrun

11-06-2012 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 900775)

Humm ... you have a point! Posted 6:05am eastern time! We need a poll judge! We need an election monitor!

We need a vote!
Should jms entry be allowed, or not? Vote here!

Yes Only if he votes Obama..:D

No

Yum, I love Keeneland bread pudding!

VA country ham is 10 times better than KY country ham...But i like KY Biscuits and Gravy better than VA...don't like bread pudding..

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