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-   -   McKee Blew it! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4848)

Danzig 09-24-2006 08:53 AM

it's not mckee's fault he was rank and headstrong....but i think the general consensus is that if he's going to run off like that, don't sap his energy by making him fight you. he may have had enough left to fight off strong contender if mckee had just faced facts...
maybe next time he needs to keep ron behind horses, don't let him see an opening early on. hell, i don't know! he's got the ability, he sure didn't want to let contender by there at the end.

Pedigree Ann 09-24-2006 09:36 AM

Backtrack to February 1971. Whittingham has this promising colt who had come up from the Chile the previous summer and had won several nice races, and placed in a couple others, coming from off the pace. The Bald Eagle and his main man Shoemaker were finding their best strategy was to drop him out completely early and make a big looping move on the far turn. Today is the San Marcos H at 10f on the turf; Cougar II is the highweight and favorite. But when they spring from the gate, The Big Cat decides to throw out the script. He goes straight to the front and the Shoe wisely decides to humor him. He was 2 lengths in front the first time they went under the wire and 6 lengths in front the second time (the one that counted). His Felinity never did it again, I suppose because he had proved to his jock who was in control.

Moral of the story: Adjusting the plan to fit the horse's mood and race conditions works better than trying to force the horse to fit the plan. The ablility to make that kind of judgment on the fly is the difference between a top jock and a hard-working, consciencious midlevel jock like McKee.

Gander 09-24-2006 09:45 AM

Or could it just be Strong Contender is just a better horse?

Pointg5 09-24-2006 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Or could it just be Strong Contender is just a better horse?


He's definetely not a better horse, he only won by a little less than a length, not exactly a pounding, LR took the worst of it, but that's on him, it wasn't SC's fault that he won, they're both about the same talent level, not much seperates them...

Pedigree Ann 09-24-2006 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Or could it just be Strong Contender is just a better horse?

It is possible, but you can't prove it from the results of the Super Derby.

2Hot4TV 09-24-2006 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Or could it just be Strong Contender is just a better horse?

Strong Contender was fit and ready for the race, but to say he is a better race horse? Only on yesterday. In the future? We will see.

Pointg5 09-24-2006 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
He's definetely not a better horse, he only won by a little less than a length, not exactly a pounding, LR took the worst of it, but that's on him, it wasn't SC's fault that he won, they're both about the same talent level, not much seperates them...


I will mention one thing that seperates them, it is that some people refuse to acknowledge no matter how many times he proves it, that LR is a very good and possibly G1 type horse...If you are a LR fan, yesterday was nothing but a confirmation that he's a very good horse, that needs to learn to rate...

cal828 09-24-2006 10:17 AM

Strange that they seem to have been able to rate him in some races usually against lesser competition, but not others. Why is that? In the Saint Louis race maybe it was just rust being his first off layoff, but he was also rateable
in the Southwest. Anybody know what his beyer was? I think he had to run a bigger one that the Arkansas Derby. Yesterday's race was about 3 seconds faster, I think.

DiscreetCat=Monster 09-24-2006 10:51 AM

this horse is 6-8 lenghts faster if they could get a jock to do some work with him in the mornings and get him to relax.

Danzig 09-24-2006 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I have a feeling that if McKee lets him go yesterday, and opens up 10 down the backstretch, and still gets beat. All we'd here is why did McKee let him run off.

well, that is a possibility...but we only know what we know, and that's that he fought the horse, and the horse lost by about 3/4 of a length after a wrestling match with his rider.

Zoe 09-24-2006 01:09 PM

Trying not to be too critical, But Lawyer Ron will need to be carrying an oxygen tank instead of a rider to make it a step past 1 1/8 miles. He will be solid at 1 - 1 1/16, and may beat lesser at 1 1/8, but 1 1/4 is beyond this horse's ability.
If he runs in the Classic, he's not much more than a pace factor for the big boys.

Pointg5 09-24-2006 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zoe
Trying not to be too critical, But Lawyer Ron will need to be carrying an oxygen tank instead of a rider to make it a step past 1 1/8 miles. He will be solid at 1 - 1 1/16, and may beat lesser at 1 1/8, but 1 1/4 is beyond this horse's ability.
If he runs in the Classic, he's not much more than a pace factor for the big boys.

Let's see he's had 2 races @ 1 1/8th, he's won one and run 2nd in the other(while setting fast fractions), the Derby is a throwout, because he came up hurt and was over the top with all of the racing. Please justify your statement, because you have no proof that he can't go that far....

sumitas 09-24-2006 02:06 PM

SC almost broke the track record yesterday, only coming up 2 ticks off. Both SC and LR shoould get huge numbers for the race.

Gander 09-24-2006 02:47 PM

You cant say that there is no way Strong Contender is the better horse or vice versa. I personally think so but cnt argue with those who feel Lawyer Ron is the better horse. But please dont act like Lawyer Ron is some super horse like Bernardini and whos recent wins blow Strong Contender's resume out of the water. Its just not true. I agree these horses are very close in ability but I think Strong Contender is more talented. Only time will tell, and maybe time wont even tell with the way horses are retired just when your getting into rivalries.

kentuckyrosesinmay 09-24-2006 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
You cant say that there is no way Strong Contender is the better horse or vice versa. I personally think so but cnt argue with those who feel Lawyer Ron is the better horse. But please dont act like Lawyer Ron is some super horse like Bernardini and whos recent wins blow Strong Contender's resume out of the water. Its just not true. I agree these horses are very close in ability but I think Strong Contender is more talented. Only time will tell, and maybe time wont even tell with the way horses are retired just when your getting into rivalries.

I think you're right only that I think that SC and LR are about at the same level at 1 1/8. Past 1 1/8, it's SC all the way. I really think LR has distance limitations. Yesterday proved that neither one of these horses are "slow". SC made a very, very nice move coming around the final turn. I think that this horse is improving, and will be an extremely nice horse as a four year old. I really see SC being a late bloomer because of his size. I mean, you saw the difference in SC's size and LR's size yesterday. SC is HUGE!!! I also think that the Beyers for this race will be decent in the grand scheme of GI horses.

I would like to see Holthus skip the BCC with LR and point him to the Cigar Mile. I don't think that he will be a factor in the Classic because I really don't think this horse is going to want 1 1/4 especially with him being as rank as he is, but I do think that he would do very well in the CM.

Danzig 09-24-2006 03:20 PM

one race at 10f imo isn't enough to say lawyer ron can't get the distance. i remember that folks thought congaree couldn't get it either. altho he didn't win them all, he was always there at the end.

hard to say yet which of the two is better, SC or LR. of course head to head right now, you'd have to think strong contender is the better, since he's the one with the win.

not so sure that ron will be back. i know there's a stud deal in place for him. i wouldn't be surprised if he ran til the end of the year, whether bcc or elsewhere, and then retired.

strong contender--i'm hoping he'll be back next year. i don't feel he's done enough yet to really garner a lot of attention as far as breeding, and that he's still improving. still a lot of upside to this guy, i think he could be a top older horse.

2Hot4TV 09-24-2006 03:35 PM

If you watched the race you could see that Lawyer Ron was (IMO) intimidated by the horses around him in post parade. That was Strong Contender and he was cool , calm and relaxed. The only reason I didn't bet him was because he refused to be loaded in the gate. In hind sight he didn't get mad or angry he was just stubborn and kept turning sideways to the gate. I think Strong Contender is going to improve off this race.

dalakhani 09-24-2006 03:56 PM

Just a quick question for all of the Lawyer Ron apologists. What has he ever beaten? The Arkansas route was quite soft this year and its not like the St louis derby is a real race.

Has he beaten anything of quality?

Pointg5 09-24-2006 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Just a quick question for all of the Lawyer Ron apologists. What has he ever beaten? The Arkansas route was quite soft this year and its not like the St louis derby is a real race.

Has he beaten anything of quality?

Has Bernardini?

Besides, a bunch of tired horses in the Preakness and an injured Barbaro...He got away with slow fractions in the Jim Dandy and beat a 3 legged Blue Grass Cat in the Travers...

dalakhani 09-24-2006 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Has Bernardini?

Besides, a bunch of tired horses in the Preakness and an injured Barbaro...He got away with slow fractions in the Jim Dandy and beat a 3 legged Blue Grass Cat in the Travers...

Well, Bernardini won the Preakness and in doing so beat graded stakes winners in Sweetnorthernsaint and brother derek. If you include barbaro, he beat the three top favorites in the derby and did so convincingly.

In the travers he beat BGC who was a graded stake winner and a runner up in two classics.

I would say he has beaten the best in his class save a healthy barbaro.

I repeat, what has Lawyer Ron beaten?

Pointg5 09-24-2006 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Come on do you really want to compare Bernardini and Lawyer Ron.

Did I say anything that wasn't true?

dalakhani 09-24-2006 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Did I say anything that wasn't true?

That tired horse thing is a bunch of ****. If sweetnorthensaint was so "tired" as you say, how come he ran such a nice fig in the preakness?

How about BGC? Correct me if im wrong but the fig in the travers was close to his best.

Has Lawyer Ron beaten anything at all...even "tired" horses?

Pointg5 09-24-2006 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Well, Bernardini won the Preakness and in doing so beat graded stakes winners in Sweetnorthernsaint and brother derek. If you include barbaro, he beat the three top favorites in the derby and did so convincingly.

In the travers he beat BGC who was a graded stake winner and a runner up in two classics.

I would say he has beaten the best in his class save a healthy barbaro.

I repeat, what has Lawyer Ron beaten?

Do you really think SNS and BD were at their best in the Preakness?

BGC was running on 3 legs in the Travers...

Bernardini is a talented horse, but I do not believe he's a super horse by any means...GZ, Smarty, and Mineshaft to name a few are better...

dalakhani 09-24-2006 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Do you really think SNS and BD were at their best in the Preakness?

BGC was running on 3 legs in the Travers...

Bernardini is a talented horse, but I do not believe he's a super horse by any means...GZ, Smarty, and Mineshaft to name a few are better...

Whatever. Didnt say Bernardini was a "superhorse" but he is certainly better than lawyer Ron by any measurement. And despite your excuses, he has beaten some pretty good horses.

I repeat...what has Lawyer Ron beaten?

Pointg5 09-24-2006 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Dude, he can only beat who is entered against him. His 1st race aside, he has defeated EVERY horse he has faced, easily. I'll ask again, you can't really be seriously comparing the two right? Because that might just be the most asinine thing I have heard on this board yet.


Bernardini is better, no doubt, but it's not out of the question to put Lawyer Ron in the Top 3yo's...

I am editing this, because I respect Kasept, I apologize to any it offended...

Gander 09-24-2006 04:53 PM

If Bernardini isnt a super horse, well then that makes Lawyer Ron a very average horse.

dalakhani 09-24-2006 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Excuses, excuses, this one was not at his best, this one was running on three legs. It gets tiresome. What was Lawyer Ron's excuse yesterday? I actually think he ran his race, and was beat. He would be lucky to finish within 10 of Bernardini.

I just want to know what Lawyer Ron has beaten. The LR apologists who keep blaming the jockey havent given anything but excuses.

Pointg5 09-24-2006 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Not talking down, just proving you wrong. I guess he is in the top ten three year olds right now, but I seriously doubt he's scaring anyone away. Bernardini scares people away. Plain and simple.

If you are proving me wrong how can you use argue the same thing for one and not the other...

dalakhani 09-24-2006 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
If you are proving me wrong how can you use argue the same thing for one and not the other...

Because Bernardini has actually beaten good horses. Your argument is one that you cannot prove thus it is very weak. There is no data supporting what you say.

I ask you again...what has Lawyer Ron beaten?

Danzig 09-24-2006 05:00 PM

i don't think ron needs excuses for yesterday. he held on well, showed a lot of heart. and jocks get blamed all the time for a horse not winning.
also, regarding mckee....when ron took off in the ark derby, he let him have his head. horse won. he fought him yesterday, the horse didn't win.

ALL horses have people who question who they beat, even the great man o war, and the almost as great native dancer! nothing wrong with questioning who ron defeated...all horses meet some good, and some not so good horses--including bernardini and his ilk.

Danzig 09-24-2006 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I ask you again...what has Lawyer Ron beaten?

enough horses to put him firmly in the top ten for earnings this year.

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
i don't think ron needs excuses for yesterday. he held on well, showed a lot of heart. and jocks get blamed all the time for a horse not winning.
also, regarding mckee....when ron took off in the ark derby, he let him have his head. horse won. he fought him yesterday, the horse didn't win.

ALL horses have people who question who they beat, even the great man o war, and the almost as great native dancer! nothing wrong with questioning who ron defeated...all horses meet some good, and some not so good horses--including bernardini and his ilk.

Yeah but...

What did Lawyer Ron beat that was any good?

Pointg5 09-24-2006 05:01 PM

He beat a hell alot of horses when he was reeling off his wins, he can only beat who runs against him. Correct? isn't that what you guys are arguing...Let's see what kind of number comes out of this race, I have a feeling it's going to be pretty good....


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