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-   -   Attempt to pick 1,000 straight horses who fail to win (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47847)

Calzone Lord 08-17-2012 03:17 AM

Bums for Saturday:

Arlington Park Race #3: Callaloo

Arlington Park Race #5: Direct Breeze

Arlington Park Race #7: Lemonade Kid

Arapahoe Park Race #2: Dixie's Lil Dandy and Unbridled Pollyann

Araphoe Park Race #4: Slip Away Darlin

Arapahoe Park Race #9: County Slip

Canterbury Park Race #5: Brave Little Bull

Charles Town Race #4: Banner Time

Charles Town Race #8: Reach For The Gold

Del Mar Race #4: Tiz Final

Ellis Park Race #2: D's Littlebit Wild

Evangeline Downs Race #3: Diamondsforjulia and High on the List

Evangline Race #5: Miss Juror

Evangline Race #10: Big W's La Tee

Finger Lakes Race #5: Patron's Emma K and First Dine

Fairmount Park Race #3: Hay Ring

Louisiana Downs Race #6: Twin City Thunder

Louisiana Downs Race #8: Main Stage

Remington Park Race #9: Oklahoma Traveler

Saratoga Race #1: Hookdonchurchpunch

Saratoga Race #11: Proud Siren

Suffolk Race #1: Bold Dream

Thistle Downs Race #7: Third Wish and Classic Reward

Woodbine Race #9: Cat Steps

OldDog 08-17-2012 07:18 AM

That's an ambitious list for Saturday.

Calzone Lord 08-18-2012 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 883714)
Bums For Friday:


Arlington Park: Race #1: Nuckser

Arlington Park: Race #6: Stage Tapper

Arapahoe Park: Race #6: Colorado High

Arapahoe Park: Race #9: Robyns Return

Canterbury Park: Race #1: Run Trevor Run

Canterbury Park: Race #5: Demi's No Trump

Charles Town Race #2: Reggae King

Charles Town Race #5: Ethlenes Merlot

Ellis Park Race #6: Bright White Sox

Hoosier Race #3: Whata Waki

Hastings Race #7: Secret Satin

Albuquerque Race #9: Amor de Mi Alma

Presque Isle Downs Race #7: Velvet Dancer

Remington Park Race #3: Ruby Pauline & Lady Teacup

Saratoga Race #5: Licentious Eyes

Saratoga Race #8: Saint Anna Carina

Thistle Downs Race #8: L. G. Twins

Woodbine Race #2: Twilight Shadow

Two of them scratched -- the other 17 all got buried. To this point, no horses has yet to finish 1-2-3 ... and no Superfecta was offered in the two races where the bums manage to cluck in to a 4th place finish.

90 down, only 910 more to go.

Calzone Lord 08-18-2012 04:26 AM

Bums for Sunday:

Canterbury Park: Race #1: Sammy Ray

Canterbury Park: Race #8: Orfan Ole

Del Mar Race #4: Undaunted Rally

Ellis Park Race #3: Go for Four Buddy

Ellis Park Race #6: Jennifer Ashton (Turf Only)

Emerald Downs Race #8: Jump Up and Kissme

Emerald Downs Race #9: Sharp Focus

Golden Gate: Race #5: Tiz Savy

Louisiana Downs Race #7: Wiggly

River Downs Race #8: Jaf

Saratoga Race #2: Tootsie's Girl

Saratoga Race #3: Harry Consolidator

Saratoga Race #7: Sucre and Rachini

Woodbine Race #2: Osculator

Woodbine Race #9: Real Hero

Calzone Lord 08-18-2012 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranger5830 (Post 884018)
Today's nags managed to attract $6,131 in failed win wagers, which brings the running total up to $59,625.


Ranger, you're slipping on the total! Will this Saturday top last Saturday's?

Over a hundred now.

It feels like 5,000 -- this is a grind!

MISTERGEE 08-18-2012 08:11 PM

just curious how many of your pics have been in top 3

MISTERGEE 08-18-2012 08:14 PM

sorry just saw answer above

ranger5830 08-19-2012 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 884564)
Ranger, you're slipping on the total! Will this Saturday top last Saturday's?

Over a hundred now.

It feels like 5,000 -- this is a grind!

I was out all night last night so I was unable to do the total for Friday, but from what I saw from the afternoon I estimate the total for Friday to be at least $9,000, so I will use that number as the total for Friday.

Saturday, however, was a record day for the nags, as they managed a combined $29,646 in losses, bringing the new total to $98,271. Hookdonchurchpunch in the first at the spa was only 18-1 and was responsible for $9,147 just by herself. So far the record low was on Friday at Arapahoe, Robyns Return drew only $21 in win bets.

It's a grind keeping up with you, so I can only imagine how it is for you, but I will persevere through the end, it is amazing to get this far and not have even one horse be respoonsible for any winning wager of any kind so far.

Calzone Lord 08-19-2012 05:12 AM

Thanks for the good record keeping Ranger.

I was flirting with taking Sea Island in the Alabama Stakes -- who was 13/1 in a race with over $1 million in the WPS pool -- but the unique distance of 10fs and the likelihood of a very fast pace was just enough to discourage me.

112 down, only 888 more to go.

Calzone Lord 08-19-2012 07:28 AM

Bums for Monday:

Finger Lakes Race #3: Flag Handler

Finger Lakes Race #9: Sea Slice

Mountaineer Park Race #4: Trust in Frank

Parx Race #5: Wild And Away

Parx Race #6: Marco Be Good

Parx Race #10: Brave Samson

Saratoga Race #1: Praetorian Guard and Burned Bridges

Saratoga Race #3: Thunderville

Suffolk Race #1: Castiel

Calzone Lord 08-19-2012 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 884248)
Bums for Sunday:

Canterbury Park: Race #1: Sammy Ray

Canterbury Park: Race #8: Orfan Ole

Del Mar Race #4: Undaunted Rally

Ellis Park Race #3: Go for Four Buddy

Ellis Park Race #6: Jennifer Ashton (Turf Only)

Emerald Downs Race #8: Jump Up and Kissme

Emerald Downs Race #9: Sharp Focus

Golden Gate: Race #5: Tiz Savy

Louisiana Downs Race #7: Wiggly

River Downs Race #8: Jaf

Saratoga Race #2: Tootsie's Girl

Saratoga Race #3: Harry Consolidator

Saratoga Race #7: Sucre and Rachini

Woodbine Race #2: Osculator

Woodbine Race #9: Real Hero

12 of them ran -- and all 12 of them got buried. One of them, even finished 5th in a field of 5.


124 down, only 876 more to go.

ranger5830 08-20-2012 02:00 AM

This was really a banner weekend for the bums, as Sunday alone they accounted for $22,006 in failed win wagers, bringing the grand total to $120,277. That's enough to buy a decent house in large portions of the country. Just this weekend $51,652 was wasted, or enough to buy a new Mercedes.

pweizer 08-20-2012 09:46 AM

This is a really fascinating and entertaining thread. But, Doug--my main question is how can you follow so many tracks at one time and still have conviction in your opinions?

Your ability to do that alone makes you one of the greatest handicappers I know.

Paul

Calzone Lord 08-20-2012 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 884881)
This is a really fascinating and entertaining thread. But, Doug--my main question is how can you follow so many tracks at one time and still have conviction in your opinions?

Your ability to do that alone makes you one of the greatest handicappers I know.

I've been working with CJ (cmorioles) the last few months in making performance figures for horses with him. Maybe I'm a little biased, but the CJ Performance figure and his pace figures are way better than Beyers, TG, Ragozin, and they aren't publicly available either.

Between the two of us, we make figures for every track in the country, so at a glance I can pull up every race in the country and look for spots where real handicaping appears worthwhile.

The rest is obviously all handicapping...and I still do have a trip note collection of future bet backs that has always been my bread and butter.

For this task, I'm simply using the CJ figures -- finding the least competitive horses -- and studying the past performances to make sure there are no angles I can see that should give a horse a chance to improve and win.

Sightseek 08-20-2012 11:20 AM

What happened to those great videos you were doing?

Calzone Lord 08-20-2012 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 884912)
What happened to those great videos you were doing?

I just couldn't find the time to keep them up.

The one trip handicapping video I did where I took one-horse from each circuit as a bet-back for next time -- 3 of the 7 in the video won their next start (one of them by 8+ lengths at 30/1 odds) and even a few of the ones who didn't win their next start improved by a lot.

That's really my strongest advantage as a handicapper -- is to isolate the right kind of race to watch, watch it, and find the right horse to play back next time.

Calzone Lord 08-20-2012 02:15 PM

Bums for Tuesday


Finger Lakes Race #5: Dear Marylou

Hoosier Race #1: Stormin Sherman

Hoosier Race #2: My Friend Ann

Hoosier Race #3: Da Suga Man

Hoosier Race #5: Rapid Survivor

Presque Isle Downs Race #6: Mighty Missy

Suffolk Race #5: Speed Diva

Suffolk Race #7: Sociano's Legacy

Calzone Lord 08-20-2012 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 884610)
Bums for Monday:

Finger Lakes Race #3: Flag Handler

Finger Lakes Race #9: Sea Slice

Mountaineer Park Race #4: Trust in Frank

Parx Race #5: Wild And Away

Parx Race #6: Marco Be Good

Parx Race #10: Brave Samson

Saratoga Race #1: Praetorian Guard and Burned Bridges

Saratoga Race #3: Thunderville

Suffolk Race #1: Castiel

All 10 of them went down in defeat.

One of them was dead last throughout at Finger Lakes at just 16/1 odds. Another one was buried at Saratoga at 25/1.

However, Trust In Frank finished 2nd (beaten about 10 lengths) at Mountaineer Park...he broke the streak of 133 straight to finish out of the top 3. Be sure to bet against everything he beat in that race, next time.

Current record stands at 134 starts, 0 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds, 2 fourths.

134 down, only 866 more to go.

pweizer 08-20-2012 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 884917)
I just couldn't find the time to keep them up.

The one trip handicapping video I did where I took one-horse from each circuit as a bet-back for next time -- 3 of the 7 in the video won their next start (one of them by 8+ lengths at 30/1 odds) and even a few of the ones who didn't win their next start improved by a lot.

That's really my strongest advantage as a handicapper -- is to isolate the right kind of race to watch, watch it, and find the right horse to play back next time.

It was really good stuff.

Paul

ranger5830 08-21-2012 04:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 885063)
All 10 of them went down in defeat.

One of them was dead last throughout at Finger Lakes at just 16/1 odds. Another one was buried at Saratoga at 25/1.

However, Trust In Frank finished 2nd (beaten about 10 lengths) at Mountaineer Park...he broke the streak of 133 straight to finish out of the top 3. Be sure to bet against everything he beat in that race, next time.

Current record stands at 134 starts, 0 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds, 2 fourths.

134 down, only 866 more to go.

Today's bums attracted approximately $11,407 to win on them, bringing the total up to $131,884. Totals are approximate due to not having access to detailed pool info for Parx, amounts are estimated based on odds and pool size.

Today also set a record for longest off odds of any of the bums, as Brave Samson in the 10th at Parx went off at 195-1. He was never better than 11th at any call and was beaten 22 lengths.

Calzone Lord 08-21-2012 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 884957)
Bums for Tuesday


Finger Lakes Race #5: Dear Marylou

Hoosier Race #1: Stormin Sherman

Hoosier Race #2: My Friend Ann

Hoosier Race #3: Da Suga Man

Hoosier Race #5: Rapid Survivor

Presque Isle Downs Race #6: Mighty Missy

Suffolk Race #5: Speed Diva

Suffolk Race #7: Sociano's Legacy

One scratched -- the other 7 got crushed.

141 down, only 859 more to go.

Calzone Lord 08-21-2012 10:00 PM

Bums for Wednesday

Del Mar Race #8: Searfavoritesecret

Hoosier Race #3: My Friend Ann

Hoosier Race #9: Push Button

Northlands Park Race #7: Genie's Gem and Wee Blue Bayou

Penn National Race #9: I'm a Lumberjack

Portland Meadows Race #5: Maui and Me

Portland Meadows Race #6: Cougar Bob

Saratoga Race #3: Warrior Marie

Suffolk Race #4: Majestics Adonis

Suffolk Race #7: Say Sandy Baby

Suffolk Race #9: Bright Alice

Thistle Downs Race #6: Alexi's Gold

Woodbine Race #7: Liftoff Lady


Probably going to take a few days off while I'm away.

ranger5830 08-22-2012 12:40 AM

As is typically the case, the bums had a major falloff in money lost on Tuesday versus where they had been, but still managed to court $2,029 in losses, bringing the grand total so far to $133,913.

cmorioles 08-22-2012 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 885364)
Saratoga Race #3: Warrior Marie

That was close, you should have known better!

Calzone Lord 08-23-2012 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 885502)
That was close, you should have known better!

I know -- best late pace fig.

I saw a horse won at Suffolk at 83/1 about the same time. Had to go on tonight and check and make sure it wasn't disaster for the bums.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120822&RN=5

Calzone Lord 08-23-2012 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 885364)
Bums for Wednesday

Del Mar Race #8: Searfavoritesecret

Hoosier Race #3: My Friend Ann

Hoosier Race #9: Push Button

Northlands Park Race #7: Genie's Gem and Wee Blue Bayou

Penn National Race #9: I'm a Lumberjack

Portland Meadows Race #5: Maui and Me

Portland Meadows Race #6: Cougar Bob

Saratoga Race #3: Warrior Marie

Suffolk Race #4: Majestics Adonis

Suffolk Race #7: Say Sandy Baby

Suffolk Race #9: Bright Alice

Thistle Downs Race #6: Alexi's Gold

Woodbine Race #7: Liftoff Lady


Probably going to take a few days off while I'm away.

13 of them ran -- all of them 5th or worse other than the Saratoga scare.

154 down, only 846 more to go.

ranger5830 08-23-2012 11:16 AM

I was out of town so I didn't have a chance to calculate until this morning, the Wednesday bums lost an estimated $10,202 bringing the grand total so far to $144,115.

Calzone Lord 08-24-2012 09:27 AM

Bums for Friday (Quick glance at a few tracks edition)

Monmouth Race #1: Daring Saint

Monmouth Race #2: Sidney Anne and China Clipper

Monmouth Race #4: Tea Party Boy

Saratoga Race #4: Dontrainonmyparade and Sucre

Saratoga Race #10: Londoness


Thistle Downs Race #2: Bam Bam Jam

Del Mar: Race #1: Brother Ernie

Mountainner Race #4: Kyle's Treasury

Ellis Park Race #3: Cloudy Vision

Ellis Park Race #5: Johna's Hope

Indian Charlie 08-24-2012 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 885892)
Bums for Friday (Quick glance at a few tracks edition)


Del Mar: Race #1: Brother Ernie

Is he a full brother to handicapper?

Calzone Lord 08-24-2012 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 885892)
Bums for Friday (Quick glance at a few tracks edition)

Monmouth Race #1: Daring Saint

Monmouth Race #2: Sidney Anne and China Clipper

Monmouth Race #4: Tea Party Boy

Saratoga Race #4: Dontrainonmyparade and Sucre

Saratoga Race #10: Londoness


Thistle Downs Race #2: Bam Bam Jam

Del Mar: Race #1: Brother Ernie

Mountainner Race #4: Kyle's Treasury

Ellis Park Race #3: Cloudy Vision

Ellis Park Race #5: Johna's Hope

One scratched -- the remaining 11 of them got crushed.

165 down, only 835 more to go.

ranger5830 08-25-2012 02:28 AM

Today's bums managed to lose a staggering $22,552 bringing the grand total wasted so far to $166,667.

Amazingly, the two bums in the 4th at Saratoga were separated by only $6 in the wagering, Dontrainonmyparade had $4,599 lost on him while Sucre blew $4,605. 'Parade outran his rival though, beating him by 7 lengths, although he was still 6th of 7 beaten 32 lengths, and beaten 14 3/4 by the 5th place finisher.

Calzone Lord 08-25-2012 11:38 AM

Bums for Saturday:

Arlington Race #7: Midnight Lace

Arlington Race #8: A Nice Slewish Boy

Canterbury Race #5: Eighteen Belowe

Canterbury Race #9: Demi's Bold Ruler

Calder Race #10: G. T. Tabu

Charles Town Race #2: Dazzling Iolite

Charles Town Race #8: Nicknmina

Emerald Downs Race #8: Bookitbrooke

Ferndale Race #9: Castle of Dreams

Finger Lakes Race #5: Desert Doctor

Hoosier Race #7: Arrogantly Shabby

Monmouth Race #9: Blazing Honor

Northlands Park Race #13: Siberian Slewpy

Penn National Race #1: Mata Da Hot Tomata

Penn National Race #5: Jake's Mission

Parx Race #1: Potnia's Song

Parx Race #6: J P's Fling

Remington Park Race #1: Nine Degrees

Saratoga Race #4: Bank On Basta

Saratoga Race #7: Mad Bomber

Saratoga Race #9: Mykindofladyfriend

Saratoga Race #10: Well Kept

Saratoga Race #12: Speightscity

Suffolk Race #1: Share the Dance

Suffolk Race #5: Bold Dream

Suffolk Race #7: Brian's Spitfire

Suffolk Race #9: Agave Ridge

Thistle Downs Race #2: Black Potion

Timonioum Race #1: Satdnitejukbox

Timonium Race #3: Athena's Action

Timonium Race #6: Money Drive

Calzone Lord 08-25-2012 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 886118)
Bums for Saturday:


27 of them ran -- only one of them finished in the top 3 -- that was Black Potion who finished 3rd beaten 13 lengths at 31/1 odds in Thistle Downs 2nd race.

I can't believe $743 was bet on the hopeless bum in the last race at Northlands Park. They must have had one hell of a nice turnout for Canadian Derby day.

Ranger might get dizzy adding all of those up.

192 down, only 808 more to go.

Calzone Lord 08-26-2012 12:10 AM

Bums for Sunday:

Del Mar Race #3: Warren's Tyler S.

Del Mar Race #8: Carams and Shiver Ye Timbers

Del Mar Race #9: Riveting Reason

Albuquerque Race #3: Bandontheloose

Albuquerque Race #8: Voo Doo Duke

Albuquerque Race #11: Flood Zone and Green Tea

Canterbury Race #1: Inspired Demi

Canterbury Race #2: Sammy Ray

Canterbury Race #8: Scat On

Charles Town Race #3: God's Grace Valley and Siouxperhappy

Ellis Park Race #4: All Jacked Up

Golden Gate Race #8: Sukara

Parx Race #1: Ava's Saphire

Saratoga Race #2: Seven Dreams

Saratoga Race #8: Tiger Willie

Timonioum Race #4: Heir To The Kingdom

Timonioum Race #5: Spring Dragon

Timonioum Race #6: Atomic Guy

ranger5830 08-26-2012 03:06 AM

Thanks largely to the fleecing of the crowd at Saratoga, the bums managed to lose a single day record of $62,878 bringing the new (quite) grand total to $229,445 of real money.

I confess I could not find any info about the horse at Northlands as I don't have pool information for there and both DRF and Equibase charts only go up to race 10, but I will take your word about the $743 he lost and it is included in the total.

Calzone Lord 08-26-2012 12:28 PM

Bums for Monday:

Delaware Park Race #3: Alex For Dinner

Delaware Park Race #5: Is That Blue

Fort Erie Race #7: Deputy Lor

Finger Lakes Race #4: Beach Harber Man and Winged Warrior

FInger Lakes Race #7: Buddy System

Mountaineer Race #5: Day Road

Mountaineer Race #7: Seaside Native

Saratoga Race #9: Alykela

Suffolk Race #9: Double Your Dollar

Thistle Downs Race #7: Wegotta

cmorioles 08-26-2012 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 886332)
Bums for Sunday:

Del Mar Race #3: Warren's Tyler S. Last

Del Mar Race #8: Carams and Shiver Ye Timbers 6th and 8th

Del Mar Race #9: Riveting Reason Last

Albuquerque Race #3: Bandontheloose 6th

Albuquerque Race #8: Voo Doo Duke Last

Albuquerque Race #11: Flood Zone and Green Tea 5th and Last

Canterbury Race #1: Inspired Demi Last

Canterbury Race #2: Sammy Ray Last

Canterbury Race #8: Scat On 6th

Charles Town Race #3: God's Grace Valley and Siouxperhappy Last and Next to Last

Ellis Park Race #4: All Jacked Up Last

Golden Gate Race #8: Sukara 9th

Parx Race #1: Ava's Saphire Last

Saratoga Race #2: Seven Dreams Last

Saratoga Race #8: Tiger Willie Scratch

Timonioum Race #4: Heir To The Kingdom Canx

Timonioum Race #5: Spring Dragon Canx

Timonioum Race #6: Atomic Guy Canx

I'll save you some time. 17 ran, none hit the board. 10 ran last, and one of the others ran next to last to another bum.

Calzone Lord 08-26-2012 10:49 PM

Stunningly, one of the ones who didn't run was 6/1 in a five horse field at Timonioum with just 1 mintue to post before the entire card was cancelled.

209 down, only 791 more to go. (This is long -- I'm tempted to start taking 80 horses a day)

ranger5830 08-27-2012 01:43 AM

The bums today managed to incinerate another $30,553 bringing the total up to an impressive $260,002.

Calzone Lord 08-27-2012 08:49 PM

Bums for Tuesday:

Hoosier Race #1: Lilli Soprano

Hoosier Race #5: Greys Indy Princes

Mountaineer Race #1: City Warrior and Hot Air

Mountaineer Race #4: Misty's Idenity

Mountaineer Race #10: Dr. Nicole

Suffolk Race #2: Pats Love

Suffolk Race #4: K O's Puffalumps

Suffolk Race #6: Numerous One

Suffolk Race #9: South Jak


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