We clearly have different definitions of "abundance of hype." Pyro went off at 5.7-1 after a 10th place finish. El Padrino is at 20.5-1 right now at thegreek.com. What's more, I don't see anybody expecting him to win. Rather, folks are looking to play him underneath, which I don't find outrageous.

If Pletcher had a cute son, hot wife and said El Padrino didn't like GP, all would be fine. Oh, and if El Padrino was also by Indian Charlie.

Injun Chuck,

I went into the write up liking the fact that he showed potential to move forward off the FL Derby where he wasn't as bad as people might think. And fig-wise, he's actually been pairing up and is completely in line with all the obvious, lower-priced options. He has a good style for how I think the race flow is going develop as well. The problem, if he indeed has gone the wrong way, is that the Risen Star corker gutted him and Mark Valeski and it will be a while before he's back to where it appeared he was headed. While Jones & Jones may OK a start Wednesday after his jog, Valeski appears to be sideways right now as well..

But, people have (and had) abandoned ship somewhat after their final Derby preps!

The rest of what you say is true enough.

Glad this has generated discussion. Take a good look at the Derby charts from the last 7-8 years. Headed to a dinner but anxious to see more of everyone's thoughts later!

I don't find boys cute, I have no idea if his wife is hot or not, but you might be onto something with that third point!

That being said, if the sire was IC, than El Padrino would obviously be a much better racehorse.

This would all be a mute point.

OMG, I totally forgot he ran in the Fla Derby.

While a bit better of a performance, perhaps, than his race in Louisianna, it really wasn't much to get excited about.

Neither was Thunder Gulch's Blue Grass..

I suppose. And I suppose you could fine quite a few Derby winners that had a lackluster, or worrisome final prep.

Secretariat for instance.

However, these horses had established form and had run in top races, distinguishing themselves quite well.

Can't really say that for El Padrino.

El Padrino is getting a look because of his positive figure pattern.
He is supposedly set for a good performance, and his best puts him in contention (minus the big Bode number).

Initially I liked him but his last work has me concerned.

"I'm very unhappy about the reports on El Padrino, but the picks were an attempt to send a message about how to approach the race."

Steve - What did you mean by this? Are the reports that he is not looking so well??? I had not heard that, so any info is great.

Many Thanks

Rousing Sermon is my suck up for 3rd or 4th Horse.

GOOD!!!!

Not looking so GOOD!!!!!!

Why does everyone in horse racing insist on using "well" instead of "good"????? The HRTV and TVG people do this all the time and it drives me up a god.damn wall.

It has to be the fact that you are supposed to say "I don't feel well" or "I didn't play well" as opposed to "I don't feel good" or "I didn't play good". But in the sense of describing how a horse looks, it is OK to say "he looks good."

Sounds like you are not feeling well. Did you get what I asking? sheeesh!

You know what pisses me off? Your use punctuation. !!!!!!! and ?????? It is fine and well to just use one.

The Palm Meadows work seems disconcerting, but the track was messy. I will be looking forward to hearing Welsch's comments on him when the horse finally makes his way to Churchill.

Is anyone else finding it impossible to construct a cost-effective tickets for tris and supers? I may limit to exactas and then try the Pick 3/4 with 4-5 of my top selections....

Steve - You mention looking over the past few Derby charts...I've looked at the past 10 PPs for the Derby and tried to compare relative to eventual outcome. I've noticed the following:

1. This group is unlike any group in the past 10 years....or any year that I can remember to be exact. Each of them seem to primed for a top performance.

2. I've posted this before elsewhere, the past five winners have been setup so that the Derby is third off the bench. With that in mind, this angle fits seven horses: Trinniberg, Done Talking, Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat, Dullahan, Gemologist and Union Rags.

Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat and Union Rags all appear to be training well at CD....Gemologist is undefeated and has two wins at the track...Dullahan seems plausible...Done Talking is logical underneath and Trinniberg is a toss.

I'm scared of Bodemiester not being on that list, but I'm thinking about using 5 of the seven above in the multi's.

Thoughts?

Sounds like you might just wann take a deep breath and then key "Went the Day Good" in your verticals on Saturday

lol
i'm still hung up on IC saying a point was mute, but that's a personal problem.

:D
:$:
:tro:

Went the Day Well is actually proper grammar.

I will not have Bodemeister on any of my tickets. He has progressed for 4 straight races; I think he is due to regress in the Derby, even though he did work lights out and looked good on Sunday.

I don't get this stance at all. . . especially considering the second half of what you said.

I know it doesn't seem to make sense, hockey. But I just don't think he will run another big race. His last work made me want to reconsider, but I'm sticking by my first instinct. If he beats me, he beats me.

I suppose one has to take a stand somewhere.

If only all points were mute.

I want to be in love with him. I really do.

But the curse of Apollo lives strong. Just look at the laundry list of casualties listed in Saturday's DRF. Some really good names on the list. In the past 30 years alone, 28 starters, one 2nd (Strodes Creek in '94 with a weak field after Holy Bull's disastrous run) and two 3rds (the great Curlin and Reinvested in 1982- don't know anything about him.) Even the great Pulpit, long the fastest debut in Beyer history, could only manage 4th against a very deep field.

Trends are made to be broken- but this one at least has a physiological basis on why it hasn't. Keep this in mind on Saturday.

This may help a few of you out. Unless they draw the rail, Bode and TCI are my A's. No one else. I feel Bode is very very likely, and TCI has so much going for him. Plus I have him in pool 1. As of now ill have 2 back ups. Creative Cause and Hansen. That's it.

Certainly depending on how the post postios goes......Bodie and Union are the ONLY 2 in here for me.....
We have all seen even the best of the best goe down, but those two seem to be a bit better than the rest.

What did Dale Romans have for breakfast?

As of now.............

A's --- Daddy Nose Best, Dullahan, Creative Cause

B's --- Union Rags, I'll Have Another, Went The Day Well

C's --- Gemologist, Prospective

Really hard race to go vertical............doubles, pic 3's, is where I'm leaning.

FTFY

haha!!!

:tro:

Just read that Mark Valeski is definitely out of the race.

after reading beyer on t'burg, i'm leaning toward dullahan, creative cause and gemologist. i think his points about the early pace and who it will affect is absolutely correct.

I agree with Beyer for the most part. If a horse is going to go out and run a 45 half in the Derby, it's going to effect the race outcome regardless.

:tro:

All he had to do was buck this morning and he would have been in the gate :rolleyes: