Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   Oaks and Derby Handicapping (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46336)

asudevil 04-17-2012 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853321)
That was a few days after my second show.

I'll guess...US Blues or Don't Ease Me In.

Are you a GD savant?

blackthroatedwind 04-17-2012 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 853371)
Are you a GD savant?

I find it much more fascinating than discussing races three weeks before they are run.

Alabama Stakes 04-17-2012 04:48 PM

aint no luck,
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853321)
That was a few days after my second show.

I'll guess...US Blues or Don't Ease Me In.


these were the days when you still liked US(eless) Blues....right ? of PT Barnum, Johnny Chan. or was that Jackie Chan ?

asudevil 04-17-2012 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853372)
I find it much more fascinating than discussing races three weeks before they are run.

So is that strictly from memory or did you chronicle all of the shows you attended?

RockHardTen1985 04-17-2012 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853372)
I find it much more fascinating than discussing races three weeks before they are run.

2 exceptions all year, and this is one of them. No?

Thunder Gulch 04-17-2012 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 853369)
In January, I told my brother that Gemologist will be an undefeated Triple Crown Winner. Well here it is 17 days to go, and I stand by what I said in January..............Gemologist will not be denied...........When he wins The Derby and is still undefeated, you all will jump on the bandwagon. Go Gem Go..

No offense, but forgive me for not getting on board with the guy who thinks Curlin was better than Sunday Silence, Cigar, John Henry, and Alysheba among others.

Sightseek 04-17-2012 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853309)
I'm guessing he doesn't get a chance.

I pity anyone who challenges Stevie to Dart Guns at Dawn. He's a quick draw!

Clip-Clop 04-18-2012 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 853369)
In January, I told my brother that Gemologist will be an undefeated Triple Crown Winner. Well here it is 17 days to go, and I stand by what I said in January..............Gemologist will not be denied...........When he wins The Derby and is still undefeated, you all will jump on the bandwagon. Go Gem Go..

You should have told Johnny Avello, probably be sitting on a 3000-1 ticket right now.

lemoncrush 04-18-2012 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 853526)
You should have told Johnny Avello, probably be sitting on a 3000-1 ticket right now.

Gemologist was bet down around 40-1 or so at Wynn after his win in the Kentucky Jockey Cup late November for the DERBY, but they don't offer odds for specific triple crown horses. Most places will just offer a flat bet like the one below.

Will there be a triple crown winner?
YES +750
NO - 900

Clip-Clop 04-18-2012 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush (Post 853531)
Gemologist was bet down around 40-1 or so at Wynn after his win in the Kentucky Jockey Cup late November for the DERBY, but they don't offer odds for specific triple crown horses. Most places will just offer a flat bet like the one below.

Will there be a triple crown winner?
YES +750
NO - 900

If you ask, they (Wynn) will give odds on pretty much anything assuming the bet amount is where they want it.

Port Conway Lane 04-18-2012 01:30 PM

http://horses.bovada.lv/who-will-win....htm?r=1019121

I can't copy and paste the odds properly without some tedious editing but the link above has odds of winning the TC for each horse.

No bargains that I see.

asudevil 04-18-2012 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853321)
That was a few days after my second show.

I'll guess...US Blues or Don't Ease Me In.

What number did they open with in the summer of '85 at Merriwether Post Pavillion in Columbia, MD?

justindew 04-18-2012 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 853640)
What number did they open with in the summer of '85 at Merriwether Post Pavillion in Columbia, MD?

That's easy. They played two nights there:

Mississippi Half-Step, and Dancin' in the Streets.

Everyone knows that.

blackthroatedwind 04-18-2012 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 853640)
What number did they open with in the summer of '85 at Merriwether Post Pavillion in Columbia, MD?

Casey Jones.

I was there. Equipment problems led to them finally playing it. One of two times I heard it in over 300 shows.

I just saw Justin Dew's post....I must have mixed it up with 1984. Oh well.

asudevil 04-18-2012 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 853667)
Casey Jones.

I was there. Equipment problems led to them finally playing it. One of two times I heard it in over 300 shows.

I just saw Justin Dew's post....I must have mixed it up with 1984. Oh well.

Just checking....

MaTH716 04-19-2012 10:35 AM

As per Baffert on Twitter
Bob Baffert ‏ @Midnightlute
Princess Arabella out of Ky Oaks. Live interview on HRTV today at 10am Pacific time for more details

GPK 04-19-2012 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 853839)
As per Baffert on Twitter
Bob Baffert ‏ @Midnightlute
Princess Arabella out of Ky Oaks. Live interview on HRTV today at 10am Pacific time for more details

work/wərk/
Noun:
Activity involving mental or physical effort done in order to achieve a purpose or result.
Verb:
Be engaged in physical or mental activity in order to achieve a purpose or result, esp. in one's job; do work.
Synonyms:
noun. job - labor - business - labour - occupation - employment
verb. operate - labor - function - labour - run - go - make

MaTH716 04-19-2012 10:39 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 1971

GPK 04-19-2012 10:40 AM

I think I just threw up in my mouth.

FGFan 04-19-2012 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 853839)
As per Baffert on Twitter
Bob Baffert ‏ @Midnightlute
Princess Arabella out of Ky Oaks. Live interview on HRTV today at 10am Pacific time for more details

Reports are saying she is done and going to be retired and bred.
What the heck happened???
Steve and inside info?

MaTH716 04-19-2012 12:05 PM

Apparently Secret Circle is out as well:


Secret Circle will get a rest in coming weeks and will not run in #KyDerby, Bob Baffert tells @DRFAndersen. Will get precautionary tests.

RockHardTen1985 04-19-2012 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 853851)
Apparently Secret Circle is out as well:


Secret Circle will get a rest in coming weeks and will not run in #KyDerby, Bob Baffert tells @DRFAndersen. Will get precautionary tests.

Hope he is OK. Another great move by the GOAT. If this guys healthy how does he not win the Kings Bishop?

RockHardTen1985 04-19-2012 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 853839)
As per Baffert on Twitter
Bob Baffert ‏ @Midnightlute
Princess Arabella out of Ky Oaks. Live interview on HRTV today at 10am Pacific time for more details

Horrible news. I need horses to beat the 2 likely overbet chalks.

RockHardTen1985 04-19-2012 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 853867)
Hope he is OK. Another great move by the GOAT. If this guys healthy how does he not win the Kings Bishop?

I guess he wont be running in the Kings Bishop.

Danzig 04-19-2012 12:56 PM

sesamoid injury, no surgery, out a few months.

not sure how pegram thinks tho that winning over a million means SC could have gotten 10f.

RockHardTen1985 04-19-2012 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 853876)
sesamoid injury, no surgery, out a few months.

not sure how pegram thinks tho that winning over a million means SC could have gotten 10f.


Who says he cant though? His pedigree says he ran route. He has 43 flat blazing speed, but he rates. Maybe this injury has been brewing, if so he looks even better now.

Danzig 04-19-2012 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 853877)
Who says he cant though? His pedigree says he ran route. He has 43 flat blazing speed, but he rates. Maybe this injury has been brewing, if so he looks even better now.

a lot of people, which is why pegram said what he did. and your last sentence? :zz:

HaloWishingwell 04-24-2012 10:47 AM

How The Start Of The Race Looks
 
I know post position will have an impact on this but this is how I see the early order of the race;
Trinniberg
Hansen
Bodemeister
Gemologist
Take Charge Indy
Alpha
Mark Valeski
I'll Have Another
El Padrino
Union Rags
Creative Cause
Prospective
Dullahan
Daddy Nose Best
Daddy Long Legs
Rousing Sermon
Liaison
Sabercat
Went The Day Well
Done Talking

MaTH716 04-24-2012 10:57 AM

You posted this in the other thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell (Post 855191)
Using....All
Tossing....none

Post positions,reports, weather and etc. Just too much to come before dumping anyone.

For example a horse on the bubble like El Padrino and Take Charge Indy would go way up my list if it rains.

Now, you are trying to figure out the early pace scenarios?

I agree with your original post, for the most part let's figure out which 20 will be in the gate and where. Plus we'll have some sort of idea on what the weather will be and how the track is playing the first few days of the meet.

HaloWishingwell 04-24-2012 11:03 AM

I stand to my first post since it could make a difference to the final outcome of the race. I think not much at this point will change how the race unveils early on. Getting post one won't suddenly bless Done Talking with speed to the front.

tywizard 04-24-2012 08:09 PM

Steve has mentioned this before somewhere...And I couldn't agree more.

I can't make heads or tails of The Oaks. Every logical contender appears to have the exact same front running style. I suppose Grace Hall has shown some ability to sit and wait and maybe Summer Applause. Any thoughts on how this race will develop?

Sightseek 04-24-2012 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard (Post 855370)
Steve has mentioned this before somewhere...And I couldn't agree more.

I can't make heads or tails of The Oaks. Every logical contender appears to have the exact same front running style. I suppose Grace Hall has shown some ability to sit and wait and maybe Summer Applause. Any thoughts on how this race will develop?

Summer Applause will get the set-up that she didn't get last out, but nearly won anyway.

Travis Stone 04-24-2012 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 855376)
Summer Applause will get the set-up that she didn't get last out, but nearly won anyway.

What do you mean?

NTamm1215 04-24-2012 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 855376)
Summer Applause will get the set-up that she didn't get last out, but nearly won anyway.

Summer Applause got a HUGE setup last time and somehow still lost.

Sightseek 04-24-2012 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 855379)
What do you mean?

Meaning I like Summer Applause better for the Oaks than I do Believe You Can.

tywizard 04-29-2012 11:52 AM

http://t.co/41IBzPVc

Undercard probables for both days.

ADJMK 04-29-2012 12:13 PM

Keep hearing that Union Rags is not bred for the distance.Does anyone know if any of Dixie Union's progeny has run or even attempted to go 1 1/4?

miraja2 04-29-2012 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK (Post 856638)
Keep hearing that Union Rags is not bred for the distance.Does anyone know if any of Dixie Union's progeny has run or even attempted to go 1 1/4?

Grasshopper did in the '07 Travers. In addition to having the same sire, Union Rags & Grasshoppers' dams have a similar pedigree so he might be one to look at as a comparison if you're interested in that sort of thing.

Personally I don't see anything about Union Rags in his pedigree or (more importantly) in his past performances that says 10f will neccesarily be a problem for him. Doesn't mean it won't be, but I see no reason to think that the 1f stretch out will hurt (or help) this particular colt.

richard 04-29-2012 01:39 PM

He's from the family of Colonial Affair, winner of the Belmont S. Also from family of Angliana, 2nd in the 10F Red Smith H., 11F Lawrence Realization, and 13F Gallant Fox. 2nd dam Terpsichorist set a ntr @ Med for 11F in 2:13, so distance does not appear to be a disqualifier.

Thunder Gulch 04-30-2012 09:33 AM

UR certainly doesn't have that classic 10 f pedigree, but the last decade has been a parade of 8-9f pedigree looks that won on class.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:07 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.