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-   -   Possible new handicaping show (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45399)

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rare Bog (Post 835074)

Coming from someone who finds a lot of men to be exciting.

First my priest at the Catholic school growing up never diddled me ... now this.

GenuineRisk 01-30-2012 11:13 AM

Hey, Doug- it's really good and a really, really good idea. That said, a few thoughts for going forward-

MMSC is right; if you can, you should put yourself on video. Two reasons:

1. Video is a visual medium, and something active (a person talking) is good to break up the many static shots-racing forms, still photos, which are very useful and have a place in this, but need some visual motion to break it up a bit.
2. You are young. For the pieces on handicapping tips and techniques, this is a huge plus, as one of the things racing is always grousing about is needing to attract more young bettors. Your youth makes handicapping a race seem accessible to a younger audience.

If you're not going to video yourself, I would still suggest sitting up or standing up to do the voice recording. It gives your voice a bit more energy and focus. You took a little while to warm up, vocally- your voice was very confident and assured a few minutes in to the piece. Bring that quality to the first few minutes of your next video. Sitting up or standing up helps energize your voice from the start.

On a content level, as a novice handicapper viewing it, I would have liked some explanation of why speed duels setting up races for lesser horses are useful. Is it going forward knowing not to bet the winning horse back? Is it a toss out when analyzing a losing horse's race later? Is there a way to recognize when one might happen ahead of time? Since the entire goal of handicapping is to win money, how does being able to recognize a speed duel help when placing a wager?

Also, maybe a line or two explaining the whys- like, why is a speed duel bad? Why is it a fallacy that a horse loose on the lead would run faster if challenged? Hey, that could a fun segment- handicapping myths.

And time-wise, I would suggest keeping them under ten minutes, or even under eight if you can. When you're famous and have your handicapping show on ESPN, you can do 22-minute shows, but the internet is a different beast.

These are just suggestions for improving the look going forward. I really, really hope you continue. You're such a good writer, and are able to explain so clearly what happens in a race- you really could get a wider audience with what you're doing. That said, I'll totally watch them, even if you don't change a thing.

OldDog 01-30-2012 11:44 AM

This is great stuff, Doug. I liked how you tied historical to contemporary examples. I hope you'll continue to produce these. Good promotional value to you, and educational for me.

Immanuel Kant 01-30-2012 01:47 PM

Enjoyed the video. Looking forward to more

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 02:30 PM

Here's todays feel-out segment.

Races from across the country -- this is more bread and butter work geared toward betting with a lot of cheaper class racing.

I put about 60 to 100 horses a week in stable watches when I'm going full out. Basically just pick a horse I added or had in from each region and talk about a race of his.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDLzo...XsRxfkWmkglr5i


I left a real wordy chart text up for a minute and a half just to annoy My Miss Storm Cat. The video editing came out beyond terrible and this was a freaking pain in the ass because of it.

Going to have to get better software so I can do this faster and the final product doesn't look horrible -- or I might as well not even bother.

Indian Charlie 01-30-2012 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 835134)
Here's todays feel-out segment.

Races from across the country -- this is more bread and butter work geared toward betting with a lot of cheaper class racing.

I put about 60 to 100 horses a week in stable watches when I'm going full out. Basically just pick a horse I added or had in from each region and talk about a race of his.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDLzo...XsRxfkWmkglr5i


I left a real wordy chart text up for a minute and a half just to annoy My Miss Storm Cat. The video editing came out beyond terrible and this was a freaking pain in the ass because of it.

Going to have to get better software so I can do this faster and the final product doesn't look horrible -- or I might as well not even bother.

what video editing software are you using?

Indian Charlie 01-30-2012 03:37 PM

Oh geez, you even left the stupid watermark on it.

I sometimes need these reminders to recall how retahded you can be.

MaTH716 01-30-2012 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 835139)
Oh geez, you even left the stupid watermark on it.

I sometimes need these reminders to recall how retahded you can be.

What makes you so sure it's water?...............................:rolleyes:

Danzig 01-30-2012 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 835141)
What makes you so sure it's water?...............................:rolleyes:

EW! :eek:

GenuineRisk 01-30-2012 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 835138)
what video editing software are you using?

I'm guessing a non-activated version of avs4you?

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk (Post 835144)
I'm guessing a non-activated version of avs4you?

Yes -- sadly I had no other software that would allow me to copy the replays from the ADW websites.

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 04:19 PM

Learn even a LITTLE f'n french.

Raison D'Etat's name should hardly be difficult to pronounce.

tiggerv 01-30-2012 04:20 PM

Good one, better than your first effort although buy the damn video editing license.

I hope you plan on doing analysis of the sales this spring.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 835147)
Learn even a LITTLE f'n french.

Raison D'Etat's name should hardly be difficult to pronounce.


I did him just so I could give a shout out to Sightseek. I couldn't pass English, forget French.

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 835151)
I did him just so I could give a shout out to Sightseek. I couldn't pass English, forget French.

You totally botched his race anyway, so I guess not knowing how to pronounce his name is secondary.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 835152)
You totally botched his race anyway, so I guess not knowing how to pronounce his name is secondary.

Maybe, we will see.

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 835164)
Maybe, we will see.

It's not a future tense thing. To discuss that race without putting it in context to the rest of that day is to botch it. You're a very smart guy, who really understands the game, so surely you understand this.

cmorioles 01-30-2012 04:55 PM

I'm not sure how you could take much positive out of that last race for Raison D'Etat. In any case, he'll still be overbet.

my miss storm cat 01-30-2012 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 835134)

I left a real wordy chart text up for a minute and a half just to annoy My Miss Storm Cat. The video editing came out beyond terrible and this was a freaking pain in the ass because of it.

Going to have to get better software so I can do this faster and the final product doesn't look horrible -- or I might as well not even bother.

Thank you for that. I am honored.

I really liked this one a lot (text aside).

Two things... one is don't even say you might not bother anymore and two...

You need to reread this and listen to her cause it is dead on.

(Oh and last thing can I just say I am saddened to have missed Mr. Rare Bog Esquire)?

Nothing against you cause what is said between you two is none of my business but my heart jumped when I saw that name. :D

Okay read this again NOW!

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk (Post 835107)
Hey, Doug- it's really good and a really, really good idea. That said, a few thoughts for going forward-

MMSC is right; if you can, you should put yourself on video. Two reasons:

1. Video is a visual medium, and something active (a person talking) is good to break up the many static shots-racing forms, still photos, which are very useful and have a place in this, but need some visual motion to break it up a bit.
2. You are young. For the pieces on handicapping tips and techniques, this is a huge plus, as one of the things racing is always grousing about is needing to attract more young bettors. Your youth makes handicapping a race seem accessible to a younger audience.

If you're not going to video yourself, I would still suggest sitting up or standing up to do the voice recording. It gives your voice a bit more energy and focus. You took a little while to warm up, vocally- your voice was very confident and assured a few minutes in to the piece. Bring that quality to the first few minutes of your next video. Sitting up or standing up helps energize your voice from the start.

On a content level, as a novice handicapper viewing it, I would have liked some explanation of why speed duels setting up races for lesser horses are useful. Is it going forward knowing not to bet the winning horse back? Is it a toss out when analyzing a losing horse's race later? Is there a way to recognize when one might happen ahead of time? Since the entire goal of handicapping is to win money, how does being able to recognize a speed duel help when placing a wager?

Also, maybe a line or two explaining the whys- like, why is a speed duel bad? Why is it a fallacy that a horse loose on the lead would run faster if challenged? Hey, that could a fun segment- handicapping myths.

And time-wise, I would suggest keeping them under ten minutes, or even under eight if you can. When you're famous and have your handicapping show on ESPN, you can do 22-minute shows, but the internet is a different beast.

These are just suggestions for improving the look going forward. I really, really hope you continue. You're such a good writer, and are able to explain so clearly what happens in a race- you really could get a wider audience with what you're doing. That said, I'll totally watch them, even if you don't change a thing.

So the question is are you serious about this or not?

Do you want to build an audience or not?

If you do really... you need to listen to people who are giving you advice.

At least think about it cause we wouldn't waste our time if we didn't believe in you.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 835167)
It's not a future tense thing. To discuss that race without putting it in context to the rest of that day is to botch it. You're a very smart guy, who really understands the game, so surely you understand this.

I thought he got a very, very poor ride. I also thought the track was inside-speed friendly.

There are others on that circuit who've run recently that I'm a lot more interested in, but I will quite likely be betting him next time.

One of the draw-backs of taking the approach of trying to follow so many circuits -- and dealing with so many races a week to review and so many to bet -- is that you aren't as on top of every detail as you would be if you grounded yourself to one or two circuits.

By all means correct my errors. You're more on top of that circuit than I am with the approach I've switched to.

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 835170)
I'm not sure how you could take much positive out of that last race for Raison D'Etat. In any case, he'll still be overbet.

He was WAY against the track.

He's not as good as I had thought. But, he's not as bad as he has looked. We'll see.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 835170)
I'm not sure how you could take much positive out of that last race for Raison D'Etat. In any case, he'll still be overbet.

I think he wins back.

I've got your figures working very nicely for me in the turf races now. I did my own parallel time charts for each distance and tinkered with the raw numbers... but it's coming along nice.

cmorioles 01-30-2012 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 835176)
He was WAY against the track.

He's not as good as I had thought. But, he's not as bad as he has looked. We'll see.

I know he was, I just don't think he is ever going to offer value and I don't think he ran very well even considering the track. Mostly though, he'll still be bet too heavily.

Scav 01-30-2012 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 835145)
Yes -- sadly I had no other software that would allow me to copy the replays from the ADW websites.

Try Pavtube Studio, im not sure if it will work but it will capture any video that is playing on your computer and you can save it in any format, i think

Indian Charlie 01-30-2012 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk (Post 835144)
I'm guessing a non-activated version of avs4you?

Yeah, that was pretty good detective work on your part :)

I asked before I checked the video.

You'd think with as much time as I took explaining bit torrents to him, he'd have figured out how to get either a cracked copy of it, or something better.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk (Post 835107)
And time-wise, I would suggest keeping them under ten minutes, or even under eight if you can. When you're famous and have your handicapping show on ESPN, you can do 22-minute shows, but the internet is a different beast.

Thanks for the pointers and advice Nicole.

I was really convinced you made a lot of good points until MMSC said she agreed with you 100%.

Even if I never get that handicapping show on ESPN -- I've already reached the mountain top by doing a show with Serling before he was ever famous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phF57...bv4Q-Aq3q1QM2D


The Bill Mott maiden was last years Breeders Cup Mile winner Court Vision - he was a next out.

Keeneland 10-6-2007 Race #4: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=4

Keeneland 10-6-2007 Race #8:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=8

I hope someone took BTW's advice and bet Court Vision back off the maiden win -- because I didn't. He won a Gr 3 next out at 8/1. The great Discreet Cat and the great Hystericalady! Never thought I'd say this, but 2007 was a fun racing season.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2012 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 835179)
Try Pavtube Studio, im not sure if it will work but it will capture any video that is playing on your computer and you can save it in any format, i think

I'll check it out. Travis was telling me about something that sounded perfect.

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 835185)
Even if I never get that handicapping show on ESPN -- I've already reached the mountain top by doing a show with Serling before he was ever famous.

I was infamous back then.

I was also younger.

Sightseek 01-30-2012 08:03 PM

I finally got to watch them.

Nice! ;)


While we have to miss out on seeing your pretty boy good looks, I like the format that you're using and would only suggest that you use more video, charts, pp cuts. For example, for Cigar's Pacific Classic, the screen shot was a great place to start - introduce the horses, show their relative positioning, odds, say a little about them etc., but I think you could have enchanced the lesson there by including some actual race clip and perhaps some of the chart or a cut of the horses's pps. Evidence always makes for a more lasting impression, you used that tool very well in the Rapid Redux race.

That said -- if you just conquer the sound so we can hear you, you've already produced something that is better than what the tracks or racing programs are putting out.

pweizer 01-30-2012 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 835232)
I finally got to watch them.

Nice! ;)


While we have to miss out on seeing your pretty boy good looks, I like the format that you're using and would only suggest that you use more video, charts, pp cuts. For example, for Cigar's Pacific Classic, the screen shot was a great place to start - introduce the horses, show their relative positioning, odds, say a little about them etc., but I think you could have enchanced the lesson there by including some actual race clip and perhaps some of the chart or a cut of the horses's pps. Evidence always makes for a more lasting impression, you used that tool very well in the Rapid Redux race.

That said -- if you just conquer the sound so we can hear you, you've already produced something that is better than what the tracks or racing programs are putting out.



I totally agree with that statement. This is obviously still a work in progress. But it provides very useful information which would be very helpful to almost any horse player.

I hope you stick with this.

Paul

freddymo 01-30-2012 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 835232)
I finally got to watch them.

Nice! ;)


While we have to miss out on seeing your pretty boy good looks, I like the format that you're using and would only suggest that you use more video, charts, pp cuts. For example, for Cigar's Pacific Classic, the screen shot was a great place to start - introduce the horses, show their relative positioning, odds, say a little about them etc., but I think you could have enchanced the lesson there by including some actual race clip and perhaps some of the chart or a cut of the horses's pps. Evidence always makes for a more lasting impression, you used that tool very well in the Rapid Redux race.

That said -- if you just conquer the sound so we can hear you, you've already produced something that is better than what the tracks or racing programs are putting out.

He is in love with a sox...let it go

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 835232)
I
That said -- if you just conquer the sound so we can hear you, you've already produced something that is better than what the tracks or racing programs are putting out.

I'm going to have to take exception to this....especially given that it is admittedly a copy of something I have been doing at NYRA for 3 1/2 years.

How about The National Racing Report? Have you watched it?

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 835235)
[/b]

I totally agree with that statement. This is obviously still a work in progress. But it provides very useful information which would be very helpful to almost any horse player.

I hope you stick with this.

Paul

And you agree as well?

pweizer 01-30-2012 09:22 PM

Andy--NYRA is the gold standard when it comes to these shows. No doubt. But after you, what else is really out there?

Paul

GenuineRisk 01-30-2012 09:25 PM

Here's a link on capturing streaming video from the internet:

http://en.kioskea.net/faq/140-how-to...m-the-internet


In what application are you editing it and what are you using to record your voice? Built-in mic or a separate device?

I work freelance from home recording textbooks on mp3 so I might have some suggestions for improving the sound if I know what you're using to record yourself.

GenuineRisk 01-30-2012 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 835183)
Yeah, that was pretty good detective work on your part :)

I asked before I checked the video.

You'd think with as much time as I took explaining bit torrents to him, he'd have figured out how to get either a cracked copy of it, or something better.

:D

DaTruth 01-30-2012 09:27 PM

You need a sidekick, although I don't think RHT1985 fits the bill. Having another handicapper on your broadcasts will make them seem to go faster for the viewer and gives you someone to bounce ideas off of.

blackthroatedwind 01-30-2012 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 835265)
Andy--NYRA is the gold standard when it comes to these shows. No doubt. But after you, what else is really out there?

Paul

No argument, Paul, but she implied nobody was doing anything. I'm not big on blowing our own horn, but I take a little offense to being ignored in this particular situation.

pweizer 01-30-2012 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 835272)
No argument, Paul, but she implied nobody was doing anything. I'm not big on blowing our own horn, but I take a little offense to being ignored in this particular situation.

I get it and this is an instance that you should be very proud of your work. Sadly, most tracks offer almost nothing in the way of useful information to their customers.

Paul


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