Good stuff Brian, funny you mentioned Shumoos, he's one of the horses that I just don't know what to do with.
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Thanks. . . Ya, Shumoos is a weird one and I went back and forth on her a few times.

Exactly... she's one where we might look stupid not betting on her. And at this point I'm gonna roll the dice and just hope I don't look stupid. Just too much unknown with her.

Getting deep into day two handicapping now - Wrote has a huge chance in the Juv. Turf. . . victim of a patented Spencer ride last time.

Like the filly version of this event, this is clearly a spread race. With so many places to go, it seems like a good idea to start with the Euros. I want no part of exposed sprinter Caspar Netscher and, while he's got a shot and is certainly one to use, Farraaj seems to be a wise guy horse from what I've read and heard. Wrote is very interesting--or at least as interesting as a horse can be in an inscrutable race that anyone can win. I loved his performance to be third last time in the G2 Royal Lodge over Newmarket's Rowley Mile behind stablemate and Juvenile contender Daddy Long Legs. He was last early behind what seemed to be a slow pace set by his Ballydoyle buddy and, when producing his run, was inexplicably guided towards a blocked rail before being taken back outside by Jamie Spencer. He loomed ominously before tailing off a bit late, but the final furlong of that course is uphill (granted, the previous furlong is downhill), so going from a mile there to a mile at Churchill Downs could almost be considered a turn back. He gives the impression of a horse that will love a firm American turf course, and trainer Aidan O'Brien is having a huge year Stateside after suffering from an extended rough patch previously. I'm expecting a breakout performance from Wrote, and doubt any American horse can hang with him if he runs that sort of race.

Very interesting. Definately see her getting in top three.

Dirt Mile:

Uncle Mo would have been a sensational bet-against at a short-price had he entered this race.

People keep talking about "getting a distance" -- for a horse like Uncle Mo - this would have been a SUPER HARD mile to get ... where the Classic -- by BC Classic standerds -- looks to be an extremely easy 10 furlongs this year.

The Factor couldn't "get" six furlongs in the Ancient Title - he stopped and was off the board at 2/5 odds. Because The Factor failed to stay six furlongs in Ancient Title -- does that mean he doesn't have enough stamina to get six furlongs? Obviously, he stopped because of early pressure through uncomfortably fast fractions.

To Honor and Serve couldn't "get" 6.5 furlongs in the Amsterdam - he faded badly in the stretch and quit at 7/2 odds. Because To Honor And Serve failed to stay 6.5 furlongs in the Amsterdam -- does that mean he doesn't have the stamina to get 6.5 furlongs and should thus cut-back? No -- he stopped because he couldn't handle the uncomfortably fast fractions. He improved leaps and bounds on the stretch out to route distances.

Uncle Mo didn't quite "get" a hard 7 furlongs in the King's Bishop ... and this spot would have been a ruthlessly hard to get 8 furlongs for a horse of his style. Six horses in this race have run pace figures open lengths faster than he's ever run in his life. He's not a closing sprinter/miler ... he's proven he will rate kindly when he's on the lead or an outside 2nd -- but he's never proven himself as a closing sprinter. Uncle Mo would have been dressed down had he run in this race. IMO -- a great bet against and a good chance of missing the top 3 at a short price if he didn't bring his good race.

I like Wilburn to win this race from well off the pace. Going to try to get Tres Borrachos underneath at a price. He was taken out of his game in the Goodwood and projects for a very good trip.



The Turf:

The Arc was a sensationally fast race and was run like an American turf race. I'm hoping St. Nicholas Abbey is the Euro most ignored in here. I like him. The American's have no shot in this race -- and I'm negative on the chances of Midday and Sea Moon (winner last out flopped in the Arc -- he was blocked last out, horses with his style aren't the kind that move-up over here)


Juvenile:

Take Charge Indy (30-1 on the ML) has a total dirt pedigree (AP Indy - Take Charge Lady) ... he's run three outstanding races on synthetic. There could be sharp improvment in him.

Union Rags is clearly the best horse in this race -- but from the 10-hole and at a short price in his first two-turn attempt... I'm going to spread against him. His Champagne win was great visually -- but the Frizette was on the same card and produced a faster final time.



Mile:

I don't like the chances of the 6, 9, 12, and 13 at all.

Gio Ponti is perfectly drawn -- 8f is his best distance... but he's a classic hanger who only goes by very late for the win at the expense of Get Stormy denied an early lead, or Mission Approved off of a claiming race last out, or when a hapless plug like Society's Chairmen is the only other one left standing at the 1/8th pole.

Gio Ponti to finish 2nd in a textbook back-wheel bet.



Classic:


Uncle Mo's perfectly drawn. His only pace rival is former plodder Game on Dude... a horse who stalked from 4th in last years 49-flat half-mile Belmont Stakes. To Honor And Serve is ridden by the smart Jose Lezcano -- anyone familar with his riding M. O. knows he's going to aim for that perfect stalk-and-go trip from 3rd.

This should be a fairly soft and easy 1 1/4 mile race. Like it was the year former BC Sprint placed Black Tie Affair won this race at Churchill wire-to-wire with a 120 Beyer. Like it was when Velazquez opted to avoid the duel above Roses in May and allow Ghostzapper an unpressured lead.


That said -- Flat Out is still the most likely winner of this race. He's run 4 straight sensational races ever since an issue with his foot was addressed. He's in a razor sharp form and you can trust him.

Projected favorite Uncle Mo is basically a cripple with just two good one-turn races in a year under his belt.

Havre De Grace has failed to fend off Blind Luck twice at 10fs in much smaller fields where her tactical speed edge should have been more of an advantage.

So You Think is a turf horse with no dirt pedigree.

The 3-year-olds have been much maligned all year and Stay Thirsty has struggled when he's left the NYRA circuit ... he was totally drowned by Uncle Mo with a great trip here last year. He was a total non-factor in the Kentucky Derby. He was nowhere when shipped to Florida for the FLA Derby. It's hard to trust him unleashing a breakthrough race here.

I'm going to try and get Headache 3rd or 4th or even 5th if they have a super high five. His alw win over this track was very impressive. He had no shot on the Whitney and Thoro-Graph claims his nice turn move was made on a dead-rail. Also, I thought the Hawthorne Gold Cup Beyer might have been on the low side. They had everyone either getting back to their last number or running far below it -- including some very consistant horses.

This just feels like the Euro spot here. I watched Caspar's last race (on the straightaway) and he had a wall off horses in front of him most of the way before finding a seam on the rail and making a big move in that final furlong. Not sure how it's will translate to Churchill, but I think he has a good chance. I will be using Farraaj too.

Day two analysis: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...-saturday.html

good stuff!

i see a bit of a pattern in all my cyber stalking of the internet picks and who i talk too..

1 that st nicholas abby will be ovelooked.and that take chrge lady will run huge at a big number. i think both are wrong.. my 2c

The trouble Brian talks about for Sea Moon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iakkf...3265C966DE46E0

Since you brought up Headache... he's my upsetter pick for both days. I think his running style is a good fit for this race. He's fired at 10f. And he's got my boy Paco in the irons. It's his only BC mount and he's great on horses coming off the pace. 5 for 7 ITM at CD. Exactas: 11/All and All/11. Come on Paco!

Friday (passing on the Juvy Sprint and JF Turf):

Filly & Mare Sprint
Turbulent Descent has one race that would win this and seven that would most likely leave her off the board. She's never been campaigned like a sound horse, and off of three months on the bench, in her first start against elders, she's a horrendous bet at anything close to 6-5. Obviously she can win, but she's the least trustworthy favorite in the entire Cup to me. Switch is the one to beat. She's pretty clearly a better horse on dirt than synthetic and she seems better around one turn than two. This is her game. Pomeroys Pistol was rock solid this summer and draws outside the other speeds (Tar Heel Mom and Golden Mystery, perhaps Champagne d'Oro as well). She was no match for TD in the Test, but unlike that one, she since came back with a bang-up race as a prep. Only major concern is that her only bad race at three came at Churchill. Tar Heel Mom and Tamarind Hall have both run multiple races fast enough to win this, but both have tailed off in their last two starts. I'll throw them both in on the hope that one of them will run back to her peak form at 12-1+ and because I don't like TD. Tanda's only dirt start was a good one, and she appears to be in good form, so she can hit the board at a price and maybe even take the top prize if a few others don't show up.

Juvenile Fillies
I tried pretty hard, but it's tough for me to get past the two favorites in this. My Miss Aurelia is far and away the fastest horse in the race and if she's able to sit just a few lengths off the lead, she'll be extremely difficult to beat. Grace Hall's Spinaway and subsequent two-turn prep/paid workout were both super, and Tony Dutrow's having an incredible year. If either of them bring their best, no one else can win. On the off chance neither of them fires, I'll run small backups through Candrea, Miss Netta and Weemissfrankie.

Filly & Mare Turf
Stacelita is the only American-based horse who has a realistic shot of beating the Europeans in here. I understand that these aren't the strongest Euro fillies we've seen in this race, but you have to think Nahrain still has upside to tap, and taking the Prix de l'Opera, even if it was a subpar running, in her fourth career start, is an impressive feat. Misty for Me crushed Midday two races back, albeit with a 12-pound weight break, and she's unlikely to face much early pressure in here. The distance is a bit of a concern, but Ryan Moore should be able to clear relatively easily and throw out the anchor to try to nurse her around the course. Announce is probably the weakest of the three Euros, but she handled Stacelita pretty easily in that one's last race overseas. Dubawi Heights has turned into a useful American grass filly and should benefit from easy early fractions. She'll be my lone C. Aruna has avoided the top turf girls this year and is questionable at ten furlongs, let alone 11.

Ladies' Classic
Like many others, I'm on the Royal Delta train. She has the most raw talent of any three-year-old filly in the country, and probably would have locked up the Eclipse already had it not been for physical issues. Now she's at the top of her game, and Mott is one of the best at bringing horses along to peak for the big races in the summer/fall. She has enough tactical speed to stay close to what I think will be a slow pace and should be tough to hold off. It's Tricky seems like the forgotten horse amongst the sophomore fillies, but she's had a very strong year and really was given no chance last time out being taken back to fourth over a speed-favoring track. Her Acorn and CCA Oaks are good enough to win this and she should get a good trip. Plum Pretty is a bet-against at 2-1, but I'm hesitant to toss her completely, as it seems like she and Ask the Moon have this field at their mercy pace-wise. The Oaks she won was one of the weaker runnings and she was given a huge boost by the track in her freakish effort last time, but she's not so far off the top two that she's a total throwout. Ask the Moon is the one to catch and has run a few races fast enough to win this, but those were two pathetic Grade 1's she stole at Saratoga and I don't think she'll be a match for the three-year-olds in here. Ultra Blend is a quality mare, but if she couldn't outclose Zazu with a perfect trip last time, I don't see how she's going to handle Royal Delta behind slower fractions. Royal Delta is my A, It's Tricky a B, and Plum Pretty and Ask the Moon are C's who would get upgraded to B's if the track is playing kindly to speed.

Saturday (passing on the Marathon):

Juvenile Turf
Finale is obviously the horse to beat, but his draw is crap and he has a nasty habit of breaking a step or two slow (he's done it in every race but his maiden win). You can get away with that in a six/seven/eight-horse field, but with 13 other horses, including speed to his inside (Excaper) and outside (State of Play, Tequila Factor), that could be costly. There are two interesting Euros in here, Farraaj and Wrote, both of whom most recently ran a few lengths behind promising two-year-olds that would've drowned this field. The former is a versatile runner whose last two races make him dangerous in here, the latter is improving and ran well despite a troubled trip in the Royal Lodge. I see no reason why Excaper can't be a threat again at an overlaid price. He looked Finale in the eye in the Summer and re-rallied to fight him tooth and nail to the wire. The pace may prove more difficult to overcome in here, but I prefer him to anybody out of the weak Bourbon, all of whom will be half the price. It will probably be tough for Majestic City to win a race of this caliber in his first run on the grass, but I was too impressed with his Futurity to exclude him. He did pretty much all the heavy lifting in contesting a sizzling pace, likely moved too early and was narrowly run down by Dullahan late. Shkspeare Shaliyah has run well three straight times despite three different pace scenarios and Shakespeare is off to predictably a great start as a turf sire. Connections showed a ton of confidence in him by ponying up the $100k to supplement him for this and I'll toss him at what should be a square price. Caspar Netscher is the fastest horse on paper, but there's a reason he was kept at six furlongs in England, and asking a specialist like him to deal with two turns after he's been running on straightaways his whole career is a recipe for an off the board finish.

Sprint
Big Drama might indeed be good enough to win this off just one slow race since January, but it's an absolute must that you bet against him as the favorite in here. Jackson Bend is the horse to beat and he's in razor sharp form, but there's a bit of a question as to whether six furlongs may be a tad short for him. The top two finishers from the Vosburgh are the other two I'm using. Giant Ryan has has had a great year and unless he gets stuck in a pace duel, his regular race puts him in contention as long as Big Drama doesn't run his A race. Force Freeze has run two huge races since returning from Dubai, where he was wasted for three years. He was a seriously fast three-year-old, so it's not like his last two came out of nowhere. Those are the four for me, but this is one of the more wide open Sprints I can remember and the pace scenario is murky, so I'll be tossing in Euroears and Amazombie as C's as well.

Turf Sprint
I'm probably crazy, but I'm singling Regally Ready in here. He ran some incredibly fast turf sprints over the winter and spring, and both of his Churchill races would blow the doors off this field. He was obviously disappointing in the Monmouth race after the freshening, but then he was given no chance in the Turf Monster and I thought his Nearctic win was outstanding. I get that the figure came back a little light, but if you look at what was behind him, it was a seriously quality group. Bated Breath is an top class turf sprinter in England and several other runners in the Nearctic ran numbers well below their capabilities without major excuses. Some of that can surely be attributed to the yielding turf, but these numbers will likely prove to be deflated because of the conditions. Winning a race of that quality suggests to me that RR is back to his top form, which would beat this mediocre field pretty easily. Obviously 3-1 is no bargain on anybody in a race like this, but he'll go off significantly higher than that in the pick four, and I'm going to take a stand with him. I'll back up with California Flag, Havelock and Chamberlain Bridge as C's. I really don't understand what the hell Caracortado is doing in this race, but he's sure to pull a good deal of money away from horses who can actually win.

Dirt Mile
If Trappe Shot can reproduce any of his summer sprint races, he'll bury this field, and even his Vosburgh was pretty good, but this is a curious placement for him and he may struggle to adapt to the dynamics of a one-turn mile after four straight six-furlong sprints. He's clearly the horse to beat, but I'll include a few others just in case there's something behind KMc opting for the smaller purse. Caleb's Posse ran two huge races at Saratoga before foolishly being sent around two turns again in the Indiana Derby. Wilburn is a typical late developing Asmussen three-year-old who probably will be overbet, but he should sit a good trip from midpack and his figures make him competitive. I'll also take a stab with Jersey Town, whose Cigar Mile win would probably get him in the winner's circle should he run back to it. I thought he ran well in the Forego and then he got stuck chasing a loose Uncle Mo through the mud last time out. I'm against The Factor, who still hasn't shown the ability to rate successfully and Shackleford, who had his lunch eaten by Wilburn and has been a disappointment since the Preakness.

I'll get to the last four races tomorrow.

Good read Joe. Good luck.

Had a long write up done and lost it, so I'm not doing it again. Here's a short version of my opinions for today of horses I'll be using.

2nd- #6 Chilled/ #9 Katz My Song
4th- #7 Derivitive/ #6 Free Entry/ #2 Uncle Brent
5th Juvy Sprint- #6 Secret Circle/ #8 Jake Mo
6th Juvy Filly Turf - #2 Dayatthespa/ #5 Stephanie's Kitten/ #6 Sweet Cat
7th F&M Sprint- #4 Champagne D'oro/ #8 Tanda/ #5 Musical Romance/ #6 Switch
8th Juvy Filly- #4 Miss Netta/ #5 Grace Hall/ #9 My Miss Aurelia
9th F&M Turf- #6 Announce/ #12 Misty for Me/ #2 Stacelita
10thth Distaff- #3 It's Tricky/ #6 Royal Delta/ #2 Pachattack

Good luck today everyone.

Saturday (continued):

Turf
Dean's Kitten has turned into a very nice turf horse, but he probably can't compete with the quintet of Euros in here. It's pretty amazing that So You Think is running in the Classic, where he has no hope, since he would've toyed with this field. There's very little separating the top four in here, but I prefer Sea Moon and St. Nicholas Abbey, followed by Await the Dawn and Sarafina, who's a confusing favorite. I'm of the mind that Midday is better going a little shorter, so I'll make her a C along with Dean's Kitten.

Juvenile
Union Rags will be tough to beat on his A race, but there are two others I find interesting in here. Take Charge Indy is an asburd overlay at 30-1 and is bred to be a monster on dirt. Hansen is the wild card, coming into this off two blowout Turfway wins, and normally I'd be wary of a horse like him, but there really isn't much speed in here, so he's a legitimate wire-to-wire threat. Those two are the only ones I can envision beating UR on his best. Crusade would've been interesting in the Juvy Sprint, as his dam was a seriously fast six-furlong horse who went off favored on the '07 F&M Sprint. Creative Cause and Alpha could conceivably win this if Union Rags doesn't show up.

Mile
Goldikova is obviously a sentimental favorite, but she looks to tower over this field on paper as well. Anybody who says she's lost a step probably hasn't actually looked at her races this year, because she's just as good as ever. She'll provide no value, but I'm not going to spend a lot of money trying to beat her. Byword is better going longer than a mile, and he's been beaten twice (albeit narrowly) by Goldikova going nine furlongs. I can't see him downing her at her preferred trip. Strong Suit has a much better chance at the upset, and his last race was scary good. The outside post doesn't help him, and the fact that he missed a six-furlong blowout this week is a major handicap. He'll be a C for me, along with Courageous Cat.

Classic
Flat Out is the horse for me. His last four races are all tremendous and he's the only one of the three favorites to have proven himself at the distance. Similarly to Royal Delta, he's an immensely talented horse who finally appears to be healthy. All reports are that he's doing outstanding this week and he's a steal at 5-1 or so as the most likely winner. Havre de Grace is a terrific filly and is clearly second most likely. The distance is a question mark, but she shows up with a top effort every time she runs and projects to sit a good trip just off the early speed. Uncle Mo may have the most talent in the race and could benefit from slow splits, but aside from his Kelso, where he was loose in the mud in a four-horse field, he doesn't have a race fast enough to win this. His Juvy was a fantastic run, but it's becoming more and more apparent that he didn't have much behind him that day. He'll be a C for me, as will To Honor and Serve, with Flat Out my A and HdG a B.

Good luck everyone.

Very nice work today.

Thanks man. Very good day here.

I sent this message to my cousin Brian on Facebook ...



I only wish I was smart enough to write what I did about the Filly and Mare turf to him here...

Congrats to Serling for picking Perfect Shirl in a more public forum than on a Facebook private message.

Thanks for your information. However I would love to see your betting structure rather than 6 or 7 horses you think will win a particular race. In the Sprint you mentioned 7 of the 9 horses who you think have a shot. Are you applying that Apriority and Hamazing Destiny have no shot in this race?

Strong effort Douglas... looking forward to tomorrow.

Nice hit on the F&M Turf P3 Phil!!! :$:

Are you serious? I gave you A's, B's and C's for pretty much every race. I said I have two A's, two B's and two C's in the Sprint. I don't know how much clearer I can be in terms of wagering structure.

Ok. I was not sure what you meant by A,B, and C's when I read it. I am still learning the lingo. I am just use to seeing actual bets with dollar amounts, bankrolls.

That's what the Selections forum is for. This thread title says "Handicapping Thoughts," not "Post Your Plays and Dollar Amounts."

Familiarize yourself with Steve Crist's ABCX method of multrirace wagering to understand what I mean.

NOt to be a smart a** or redboarder, but who won the classic.

What does the sire have to do with anything? And not to be a smart ass, but you never mentioned the Classic winner. You brought up the filly in the Juvy Sprint. What could you redboard? You not once said a word about Drosselmeyer.

My comment was directed at a response that a sires offspring does not move up a horse at a certain track. Personally, I disagree. I follow CD very closely and have seen many Distorted Humor offspring outperform their odds. I use certain sires as a handicapping tool when evaluating a race. John Asher even made the comment that Distorted humors offspring run well over the CD track. Jeremy Plonk for the fall Keeneland meet listed leading sires all time wins on the polytrack. Personally I think it is a useful tool. Ifigured I did not have to mention Drosselmeyer by name because most of the posters would know the classic winners sire. My point is that if you put a wager on every Distorted Humor at CD you would have a positive ROI

Dougie-poo, will your pace and post-race analysis be forthcoming?

As far as Distorted Humor, I think he is probably the best DIRT sire going.

I love finding a price on his firster's, no matter the trainer or workouts.
They run great as Juvy's and older horses.... long and short.
I just think DIRT attributes to his offspring's success more than anything.
Whether that DIRT is at CD, GP, MON, AQ, BEL, SAR.. I think is immaterial.

It will be.

Tough couple of days for my brothers. My youngest brother was sent to jail. My oldest brother was run over in his driveway by his wife and is still in ICU. He was laying down to try and prevent her from backing up and leaving -- and she made a freaking speed-bump out of him.

Never thought I'd say it, but poor Mom.

Agreed

JERRY JERRY JERRY

That is terrible, I hope both of your brothers are ok. Is the brother in ICU the one with the kids?

I'm a little disappointed, no sister-in-law pics? I'm guessing that she's not that hot.

Regardless, I hope your bro is ok.

Yeah. Two kids -- both in the car when she attempted to make him road-kill.



He's got some broken ribs and a collapsed lung.

Tough year for him -- the Colts can't win a game and now this.

Let this be a lesson ... if your wife gets all huffy and wants to grab your kids and leave you -- probably not a good idea to try and block the path of her car with your body.

Unless she was in a dump truck, she would have never gotten over my lard arse!