i do not think we have seen his best.

Referring to Bernardini, I completely agree. How scary is that? He could become the Roger Federer of horse racing. This horse is the one preventing me from making a huge bet on Lava Man in the Classic. I think its Bernardini and then everyone else. The fact that people think Invasor and the Sun King are going to give him any kind of sweat in the Jockey Club cracks me up.

I agree with you about Bernardini but there is always that one horse that pulls the upset. I really like Sun King I think he is going to love the 1 1/4 he came charging his last two races.

I don't think it is bizarre. It makes sense. If they had to give out HOY today then Lava Man would win it. However, when they are picking who will actually win the Classic he is only the third choice. I pretty much agree.

I dont agree that Invasor should be ranked above Lava Man. Why exactly? As much as people like to bash the company Lava Man has been keeping, Invasor hasnt exactly defeated world beaters either. Should be a fun bunch of weeks leading up to the BC.

I completely agree with this Gander on all accounts. A lot of people don't give Lava Man the credit he deserves.

With that being said, I will be surprised if Bernardini doesn't win his next two races because he is a freaking monster/superhorse. But, it is horse racing and anything can happen. I would just love it if either Bernardini, Lava Man, or Sun King wins the Classic (I'm huge fans of all three of these horses!)

[quote=SniperSB23]I don't think it is bizarre. It makes sense. If they had to give out HOY today then Lava Man would win it. However, when they are picking who will actually win the Classic he is only the third choice. I pretty much agree.[/QUOTE

Then what basis are they using to rank the poll that includes all the horses that has Lava Man #1? If he is #1 in that poll shouldn't he be #1 in the poll that ranks just the classic division as well?

No, I don't agree overall with Gander. I think alot of people know what kind of horse Lava Man is. He has his detractors out here in East because he has stayed home. but I don't blame his connections there are three Great Grade I's at a million dollars a race and at a 1 1/4. I think he is the feel good story of the year besides Barbaro, former claimer turned Grade I millionaire. I hope he stays healthy and we have a real battle between the Big Three on BCC. I am though a huge Invasor fan. He has gotten less hype ,since the Bernardini hype machine has started, as well. That's not to say Bernardini doen't deserve it!!!!!

Invasor has gotten plenty of press here in NY. Its as if he has beaten some monsters when really who has he beaten...Sun King, a very poor representation of Flower Alley, Wanderin Boy, Wild Dessert, Andromedas Hero.
I dont consider any of these horses all that much better than the horses Lava Man has beaten.

Nice horse? Sure. Perhaps better than I think (wouldnt be the first or second time I was wrong about a horse), but to rank him higher than Lava Man at this juncture of the year based on beating those horses...I cant agree with.

If he beats Bernardini or Lava Man I will admit I am an idiot. I just dont think he will.

Again, I agree. We'll know more about Invasor in the JCGC. I know that Lava Man is the goods; he just may not be a good shipper. I think that he will get beaten in the Classic based on that fact. If Invasor and Lava Man faced each other out west and Invasor was a good shipper (which I think that he is?), I am very confident that Lava Man would win. That is not to take anything away from Invasor because he is an extremely nice animal and I think that he beat a dramatically improved Sun King in the Woodward.

Exacltly how many races has Lava Man done so horribly in shipping? 2?
The Jockey Club in which there was one horse (Borrego) who did any real running. So that was a throwout for many horses including Flower Alley.
The other race was the Japan race. How many successful horses ship from the US to Japan? Not many.

So if you are going by just those 2 races, which I think is a bad idea, then yes Lava Man is a horrible shipper. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and quite frankly the only horse he has to beat in my opinion is Bernardini.

Well, those are the only two races in which has shipped out of Cali (that I know of unless he shipped when he was a claimer), and so based on those two performances, I have to acknowledge the fact that he may not be a good shipper. I just don't have anything else to go by. In fact, he may be a good shipper and it is just a coincidence that he didn't perform well in the two races in which he shipped. I know that most, if not all, horses don't ship successfully from the US to Japan. Also, he could have had a legitimate excuse as to why he didn't perform well in the JCGC last year. Quite frankly, I think that the horse was tired from three monstrous back to back performances. I know that he wasn't himself in that race. Do you know if they found any physical ailments with him after that race?

If Lava Man does win the BC Classic, it would be one of the greatest stories ever in the history of the sport. I would be fanatic if he won because I love the horse! But if he doesn't perform well at all in the BCC, then it is most likely because he isn't a good shipper. Of course, we'll probably have some on this message board saying that he just isn't good enough.

And let's not forget Lava Man shed his frog in the Japan race and they said he left a bloody trail coming off the track, that is a painful occurence for a horse, they don't all do it, but when they do it's a yucky mess.

Oh he did get alot of Press especially after the Whitney, but after that it has been all Bernardini.
I guess you can say the same about Lava Man, hasn't beaten any world beaters himself. I do agree Lava Man should be number one but fair is fair it's not exactly that tough out on West either.

Lava Man also tanked when he ran the Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream. So it has been three times out of California with those three races being the three biggest defeats of his life in beaten margins.

lava man shipped to japan after staggering down the lane in jcgc, apparently not in great shape, didn't ship well in, and then they tried to throw him out of the pan and into the fire in japan. it's why he'll ship into churchill with plenty of time to get acclimated.

the old schoolers always said either ship and race IMMEDIATELY, or ship in three weeks ahead of the race. ship in a few days ahead of time, a bad shipper will have just enough time to develop problems and skunk up the place in the race. so go three weeks out, time to get thru all those nagging things brought on by travel.

besides, he at least came back from japan better than ever, hasn't missed a beat since--how many dubai and back shippers can say the same??

Invasor seems to be doing all right after shipping in from his debacle in Dubai

Yes hes doing very well. 3 wins since Dubai. He needs to step it up to Bernardini, plain and simple. Beating the Sun King by a head bob doesnt exactly translate to beating maybe the best horse we've seen in many a moons. I wasnt really that impressed with this year's Suburban field. Andromedas Hero is grade 3 material at best and Wild Dessert is getting to be very overrated. I think Invasor has a solid shot to run 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and maybe 3rd in the BC Classic.

And that is the beuty of the Sport. It is a wait and see. We can do all the talking we want but it is the horses that will have the finally say. I have not jump off the Invasor bandwagon yet. I think he proved something in gutting it out against Sun King. I can not wait for the JCGC. Race of the year thus far!!!!!!!!!!

But my question is who is he supposed to be beating? I have been on a few boards and have heard all the detractors of all of the Big 3. Lava Man - Has beaten nobody out on the West Coast, needs to ship out. Why? He is a West Coast Horse and is racing in the major races on the West Coast. Invasor - Has beaten nobody on the East. Who is he supposed to be beating, who is he ducking? has raced in all the major Grade I's on the East Coast since spring. Bernardini - Beat tired horses and a broken down Barbaro in the Preakness. Raced against nobody's in the Jim Dandy and Travers besides a hurt BGC. Is it his fault Bro. Derke and SNS went into hiding along with Bafferts trio. Is it his fault that they decided to duck him in favor of some crap Grade III at Del Mar? The bottom line is the horses have showed up to their respective main events in the spring and summer. And have won each time.

Now to the detractors of any of these horses, I ask, who were they supposed to be beating?

yeah, i know it, been giving him props for it too!! he's another rarity. we've seen a lot of those this year, yet every horse has his detractors.

BOSWD, I agree with everything your saying. I was playing devil's advocate with Invasor, simply because I am sick of people dissing Lava Man by way of the competition he has faced. These same people act as if Invasor or Bernardini have been beaten world class horses. The fact of that matter is all 3 horses have beaten who they have had to beat and we are in for one hell of an Oct 7th and BC! Enjoy. Our sport gets knocked around enough and now that we hava a very eagerly awaited BC, we should be excited!

Invasor has as much chance of beating Bernardini as I have of beating Tiger Woods in an 18 hole match.

I agree with your opinion Rupert but I'd be more inclined to take Invasor over Bernardini before I took you to be anywhere close to Tiger. LOL!

I don't know. I was a 3 handicap at one time. If it was at my home course and I had a great day and he had an off day, it would be possible. It would be extremely unlikely but possible. I remember when Lanny Wadkins was in his prime back in the early 1980s and he came out to my course. He was playing with some friends of mine and he was a few holes ahead of me. They only played 9 holes and I asked them what Lanny shot. I was surprised that he shot 39. That was the same score that I shot that day.

In all seriousness though, my chances of beating Tiger in an 18 hole match, even at my home course would be 1 in 1000 at best. Invasor's chances of beating Bernardini are probably 1 in 10. I wouldn't lay 1 to 10 because I hate laying big odds, but I wouldn't give Invasor much chance against Bernardini.

At my very best I was in between a 3 and 4 handicap from the blues at a course that was cery challenging, so I can relate to your ability. I could hit the ball 280 yards straight as an arrow almost every time and I had a pretty nifty draw that came in handy at most courses. There were guys I played against at the time that were 1 handicaps and even with a bunch of off days mixed in, they would be beat me 80 of 100 times.

Trust me, you would need more than you playing your very best and Tiger having an off day. LOL!

What about the choke factor? Tiger might be intimidated by me. When he sees me rip it 250 yards right down the middle, he'd be shaking in his boots.

LOL! In all seriousness, if I ever get back to So Cal or you ever come to Saratoga, I would like to play 18 holes with you. I am not much of a player these days but I have a feeling the sport will someday soon welcome me back. Last time I tee'ed it up was the day of my bachelor party, June 2005. Yikes!

I'm not good any more either. If I went out tomorrow, I couldn't break 80. I actually played about two months ago. We went out to Donald Trump's new course in Palos Verdes. It was very nice. It's right on the ocean and every hole had an ocean view. We saw Trump out there. We talked to him. He was actually really friendly.

I might be able to break 80 depending on where I played. A fairly challenging course I have never played on, no way. But a course I know well, quite possibly.

That course sounds nice. I've played a lot of golf on Cape Cod, in Massachusetts and I love the ocean courses.

Care to give me 10-1 in a matchup? I'd give you 100-1 on beating Tiger.

--Dunbar

Oops, I hadn't gotten to this post when I posted the one above.

I'd be surprised if you have to lay more than 3-1 in the JCGC, though.

--Dunbar

I've said it before and i'll say it again, I think Invasor will beat Bernardini.

I can not wait. It is going to be great!!!!!!!!!!!

I dont think we need to worry about these horses splitting. I doubt very seriously if Invasor could get Bernardini out of a gallop.

I agree with you. I think that people are underestimating the fact that Bernardini is younger than Invasor. Look at Showing Up for example... I think Showing Up is a very nice colt and will be in Cacique's league next year, but this year, he just wasn't ripe enough to beat him. I think the same goes for Bernardini. Against any other 3 year old, he wins for fun, but older horses... I'll believe it when I see it.

I really hope the public bets the way people are talking on here. I like Bernardini and think he COULD be great but Invasor is a pretty darn good horse that has been racing against older horses and would be an absolute steal at 5-1 which is the way people here are making it sound like he will go off at.

I doubt very much the public lets Invasor, the older horse, go off at 5/1.
As lopsided a matchup as the Travers was, Bluegrass Cat got bet down to 2/1. Depending on who else goes (from what it sounds like there wont be any other real contenders in there), I would guess Invasor goes off at around 5/2.