Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718201)

It's a pretty sad statement to the older males when you have a horse like Blame - who's run Beyers in the 101-to-103 range in five of his last six career starts .. and even so I thought enough of him to make him my 2nd pick in this race in the paper today.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 718205)

Who was your pick? (Or maybe I should ask: how many other 'picks' did you get in the race?)

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 718211)

All I know it was the easiest exacta of the whole two days and paid 33 and change. It is a shame we didn't see more of Zenyatta on dirt.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718201)

I think what might get lost here is how horrid this field was in relation to past editions of this race.

Whoever was riding First Dude caused a huge pace collapse .. it basically was supposed to be a stone cold Blame 1st and Fly Down 2nd type of race at that point. Credit John Shireffs - he has an amazing record when he points for an objective. Zenyatta ran much better than I thought she would.

The final time was a joke. Uncle Mo is going to get a Beyer figure only 3 full points slower than Blame will for winning a wildly sub-par edition of the Classic.

I remember everyone make a huge deal about about how Arazi was the star of the 1991 Breeders Cup ... keep in mind he needed 1:46.40 in his blowout win over Bertrando.. Uncle Mo needed 1:42.60 today ... his final time was 3.80 full seconds (or 22 lengths) faster than Arazi's in his destruction Bertrando.

Blame's final time of 2:02.28 - was just 0.52 seconds faster than Black Tie Affair's 2:02.80 Breeders Cup Classic win at Churchill also in 1991.

It's a pretty sad statement to the older males when you have a horse like Blame - who's run Beyers in the 101-to-103 range in five of his last six career starts .. and even so I thought enough of him to make him my 2nd pick in this race in the paper today.

There was no slouch like Volponi or Mine That Bird out there today to deep six this field and make a mockery of them ... but this group was asking for it. Japan sent over the wrong horse. A speedy miler off of a bad prep .. had they sent over some late running dirt closer in halfway decent form - they probably win this.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 718169)

the funny thing is, her ardent and airheaded fans who know nothing about racing will be incredibly disappointed, while anyone who knows anything about racing will say that was her best effort ever. yes, she lost. but she showed more today against the best field she's ever faced than against those soon forgotten cupcakes in cali.

it also shows glaringly just how much her chickenhearted connections have cost her. she should have been racing like today all year, instead of racing in paid glorified workouts.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718222)

I think the time of the race is very misleading because every day at Churchill the track slows down over the course of the day. I don't know if it was like that in past years but I've noticed that consistently this year.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718232)

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718232)

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718276)

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718276)

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718249)

My point is that I think if the race went earlier in the day, they run 2:01 1/5 or so rather than 2:02 1/5.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718276)

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

Originally Posted by Theatrical (Post 718223)

It is so enlightening to be put in a blanket assessment of Z's fans as airheaded. Am I ardent? You bet your ass I am. She may have lost by a head, but look who finished behind her.

Am I disappointed? Sure am, but Blame was very game. My girl made up a huge amount of distance to just miss. I could not be more proud of her.

She is a champion, despite the garbage that has been written. On another forum, where she has been sliced and diced unmercifully, those guys have shown a level of respect for her performance today. And, they didn't refer to Z's fans as some sort of circus show. Some of them got what made her fans so passionate about her.

She will probably be retired and I am glad. Posts like yours, after a race of this magnitude, just reinforce this mare could never do enough to suit.

It's time for another horse to take over the mantle of not being able to satisfy the armchair trainers.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 718282)

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718276)

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan (Post 718170)

She ran an impressive race. Nothing to be ashamed of. I'm not a Zentard but there is a lot to love about this horse.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 718282)

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718305)

That would give Uncle Mo a 107...

I'd have Blame/Zenyatta 108 - Uncle Mo 105

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718348)

The track at Churchill slows down by around a second every day over the course of the day. If the Classic goes at the same time as the Juvenille (the Juvenille was not running at the beginning of the day but more in the middle of the day), I think the race goes in the 2:01 2/5- 2:01 4/5 range.

I know that you disagree with that, but making that assumption what would that do to the Beyers? Uncle Mo obviously ran huge today. He ran a 102 when he broke his maiden. I'd probably give him a 105 or so and I'd probably give Blame a 111 or so.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718311)

Yeah - look where Haynesfield finished in relation to Blame and Fly Down last time out ....

Look where Haynesfield finished in relation to them today.

Nothing changed - the distance was 10fs both races. The pace pressure was a lot more in here.

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 718356)

That's not really how it works.

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 718343)

I'll admit at the end that I was a little disapointed that she didn't get up, even though it would have cost me money. It would have been so much easier if she didn't lift a hoof, which it looked like very early. But she came from the absolute clouds and ran a tremendous race.
It does amaze me that in the 19 prior races, Mike Smith came up the rail once to win and in what might have been her most important race he thought about doing it again (and mind you it was dead). She was just as good as Blame today, but I really believe that Smith just gave her too much to do against a very good horse who got a pretty good trip himself. She really deserved to win that race today.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718363)

How does it work? Please enlighten me.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718360)

How did First Dude hold on so realtively well? He crushed Haynesfield and QR by 12 lengths and 18 lengths respectively and he was going faster than either one of them.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718370)

With a perfect trip, she obviously wins the race. But when you are a dead-last come-from-behinder, you're not going to always get a perefct trip in a 12 horse field. That's the big disadvantage of having that type of running style.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718374)

First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

If First Dude runs in an N1X next time out - he'll be the biggest standout ever on paper...and even he couldn't get himself beat against N1X's

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 718375)

But my point about Mike Smith is that he has never been shy about going wide with her. Granted, he's not going against 12 horse fields most of the time. But in this case, I really feel this one time he tried to save some ground with her it might have cost her the race. Also because it seemed like the middle of the track was the place to be.

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 718375)

But my point about Mike Smith is that he has never been shy about going wide with her. Granted, he's not going against 12 horse fields most of the time. But in this case, I really feel this one time he tried to save some ground with her it might have cost her the race. Also because it seemed like the middle of the track was the place to be.

Originally Posted by Left Bank (Post 718138)

bullshit! I'll NEVER forget it,and I'll be rubbing it in every Zenyatta fan's face that I can,for as long as I live!

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 718395)

That is a ridiculous argument. QR and Haynesfield could not keep up with First Dude. It would be one thing if QR and Haynesfield caught First Dude but then gave up when the come-from-behinders blew by. That wasn't what happened. QR and Haynefield could not keep up with First Dude. They didn't have it today.

What if there were no come-from behinders in this race? If this was only a 4 horse field with QR, Haynesfield, First Dude, and Espoir City and the race unfolded the same way, what would have happened? The same thing would have happened. Then you couldn't have afgued that the pace was too fast because First Dude would have gone wire-to-wire.

And QR doesn't usually quit when he gets beat. He's gotten beat plenty of times in the past and he always hit the board.

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 718372)

What evidence do you have that the track was slowing down? It has been open for what? Three days before this? Are you basing this on what was going on months ago before the extreme drought? I guess we'll just assume every horse ran their top and work it out that way. . . It's obviously going to be a tough fig to make, and one that won't really tell us anything.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 718416)

It wasn't a 4 horse field - it was a 10 furlong horse race in which the riders of QR and Haynesfield had to be more concerned with the horses behind them instead of the ones in front of them.

This happens frequently in pace collapses.

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 718434)

The figs are out.