Cue the tomatoes.

FTFY

Dont, BRO.

Winter Memories is going to be overbet off of a race that really might not be much, if at all better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine or the Natalma.

Off topic...

Does anyone possess a link where I could find out what the best wagers of past year's BC's have been? (i.e. - rolling p3's, DD's, ex, tri's . . .)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. thank you in advance.

Zenyatta

I have not downloaded a copy yet for this year, but the express bet wagering guide usually has some of the info you are looking for.

Call me crazy, but isn't that like handicapping the fifth race with the fourth race past performances? Inconsequential.

Looking over past payoffs in the BC is somewhat inconsequential because everything pays well, but getting your head wrapped around the insane value of various wagers is good for the mindset.

I have a binder with past BC charts and refer to it each year to remember things that worked, didn't etc. Plus, to remind myself at how valuable wagers like the P4 and Trifecta are.

Here's a start:
http://www.brisnet.com/library/softw...s/oct10brs.pdf

After you crack page 8 please give me a shout.

LOL I hope he is the favorite. Means plenty of money to win

Wont Zenyatta be th chalk ?

most vulnerable... any fav that draws in the double digit starting holes.

I would think.

Street Chimes disappointed mightily yesterday, and I would say moves the Natalma back a considerate amount in how it is viewed vs. some other preps. Also, that doesn't bode well for Pluck who ran a second slower than the girls did that day. That's just my opinion, of course.

i was thinking the same thing paul, i'm willing to toss the last 2 races if i can get a square price on this guy. Plus, as you mentioned, this is a step down from what he's been facing.

-bt-

Agreed that he stands out on class, but this 1 3/4 miles thing is a whole different animal. I'd like him more if someone like Sheppard was his trainer.

Pluck's bad. I don't think New Normal can be downgraded by anything Street Chimes does because of the nature of her performance.

I'm not sure what races you were watching.

That being said, I'm betting the Reddam horse.

Pluck is a disaster, if he wins, I lose triumphantly.

I'm not going to put too much into Street Chimes' 5th place finish yesterday since it seems like she wants to go a mile at most. She was also a little closer to the pace yesterday and it fell apart altogether. Perhaps I'm being too liberal with it, but I'll pay to find out. I thought that More Than Real and New Normal were the two best in the Natalma by more than the finishing margins and More Than Real is more likely to move forward in a race with a contested pace.

We'll see about it all but I'm not going to necessarily upgrade Winter Memories because Excited came back to run well or downgrade More Than Real because Street Chimes didn't.

You have some chip on your shoulder.

You're right about that. . . but I do respect your opinion.

I just don't see how anyone can think Kathmanblu and Winter Memories are equals.

I didn't really say they were equals and certainly like Winter Memories' prospects for being a good 3YO quite a bit more. Too many good McPeek 2YOs have turned into duds.

Kathmanblu ran against the bias at Saratoga in a race where I thought she should legitimately have been 60-1. She finished well after a slightly troubled break. The Jessamine was not a particularly strong race but she completely collapsed the race off the turn with that move.

My point was that the odds separation between Winter Memories and Kathmanblu is probably going to be so vast because of Winter Memories' last race. In my opinion, it was not so vastly better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine, facilitating a price difference of 5/2 vs. 8 or 10-1.

That's a fair point. I guess I just prefer other higher priced alternatives to WM.

17 races in the past 2 years with nary a win - five 2nds and two 3rds, and he's the favorite to win the Marathon? I must be missing something.:confused:

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Careful out on that limb:)

Can either of them be close to favorites?

Yeah she looked impressive, but against the clock it wasn't much better than others in here that I have alluded to. As well I think Winter Memories last race was also very much a bit of having an extremely weak field behind her...I mean seriously, Arch Support was 2nd. Arch Support has zero ability whatsoever. Winter Memories is going to be a short price and there are plenty of ways to go to take her on.

ok zenyatta,goldikova

FRIDAY

MOST: While I respect her immensely, how can Rightly So not be a vulnerable fave in the F&M Sprint? I suppose there is a distinct chance she gets edged in the wagering ultimately by Informed Decision, who has been making an increased case for herself daily, but the point is that this 7f dash looks like a spot ripe for something off the pace and at at least a square price.. (On that front, Champagne d'Oro & Evening Jewel are certainly in my grid.)

LEAST: Nick Luck from Racing UK, whom you can hear on today's ATR during all of Hour 3, feels Midday won't lose, and says that Europe collectively backs that thought. But I'm inclined to think Blind Luck has a lot going for her in a spot where she gets a pace to chase on a track she relished during the spring.


SATURDAY

MOST: With the arrival of the Euros (equine and human) and under increased scrutiny, Workforce appears a very vulnerable fave. For openers, those close to the scene say he's not going to like the hard surface. Second, and probably more importantly, he is built more for gracious Woodbine/Arlington/Belmont style grass courses, as opposed to Churchill's more narrow and rather hairpin oval.

LEAST: Goldikova. As I wrote in the Xpressbet Guide, if her story continues with a 3rd Mile victory, there won't be an accomplishment in Cup history more monumental. And as a coda, Luck said on air today that Wertheimer & Frere have hinted that they may bring the mare back in '11..

Didn't it seem like a lot of the Europeans last year were disparaging Midday? I think they have a tough time objectively evaluating their own horses when coming over here. Red Desire and Plumania should be stubborn foes for her.

I'm with you on Blind Luck. Earlier this year I was very much against her, but she has proven to be an excellent horse who always fires.

workforce was flattered in the arc, goldikova in my opinion will have to deal with paco boy with a better trip and priviso..

I was surprised Nick was so adamant about Midday. I like Red Desire myself as well off her scary looking presence on the track here and having discovered through Haskin's conversation with the Japanese that she went virtually untrained into the Flower Bowl.

I wish I factored that in before I singled her in all my tickets for the Flower Bowl :)

I think Midday is a very solid favourite.. I can't see Plumania beating her. In the Vermeille, I thought she got the run of the race and couldn't beat Midday. Also stepping down in trip from 12f to 11f wont help her bridge that gap imo.

I do agree that Red Desire will be difficult to beat and in my view, the only legit threat to Midday. I'd be willing to bet that she comes on leaps and bounds from her US debut.

Sorry about your luck as I love Evening Jewel. Victor Espinoza and one of his patented early moves scares me though.

Jessica Is Back.

I agree with all of this except the part about Champagne D'Oro coming from off the pace....:confused: