I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

Thanks again MMSC!

You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

I'll have to watch the race again.

Dirt stride? I'm not that clever. But, I will say, given her results over there, she appears to handle the turf just fine.

That's how you like to handicap...it's obvious looking at the PPs does you no good in terms of picking winners so why not try it without PPs. Maybe you would fare better by picking names? Saddle Colors? Pick the Grays?

If it matters, she's considered a very good filly overseas - one of the favorites for the Guineas. Her trainer said recently that her last was a good race, but not her best and she's thriving now. Perhaps she didn't handle the soft ground so well.......she is a big filly and considered to have a ton of potential by the Euros. She's the same as AZ Warrior to me (who I like a lot in the race); if she handles the dirt, she'll be very tough. Of course, just because she's bred for it doesn't mean she'll take to it.

It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

I think so. It's a very contentious group but she makes the most sense as who will be bet. That said, I'm against her- there is so much speed in here. My initial impression is this race is melting down.

She is some talent. Yet another case of synthetics masking true ability.

More idiocy - in Brad Free's little graded handicap thing on DRF for the Friday races, he has the "last race" for all horses coming out of the Darley Alcibiades listed as the Danny Alcibiades. Danny was a good man. . . I'm glad they named a race after him.

Can anyone confirm the max starters for the Juvenile Turf races? I've been told/read both 12 and 14. I think it's 14 based on a quick news search, but can't find anything official.

I read 14.... link to follow

edit: http://bcwc2010.com/the-races/

The Mott wont be glued to her?

Steve Crist's story in the DRF print advance says...

She was a buyback......

Just curious: what's the difference between AZ Warrior, who you thought was a contender in the Frizette if she preferred dirt, and this filly?

I believe that has to do with a turf course other than that of CD

That track was insane speed, no?

No.

You must be a Glen Beck Fan. I consistently cash.:$:

when is the draw? tues?

It would be really great if they can do this 1 week in advance so horseplayers have the full weekend before to handicap.

I thought Fridays card would be out Monday.

The draw for both days is Tuesday but the BC Advance kind of covers everything, right? These really aren't races where you have to make huge adjustments for post position or jockeys.

I mean, I know countless people nationwide are waiting to see who's in the Ack Ack, Dream Supreme, and Jimmy V Classic on Saturday.

I remember reading somewhere, and naturally can't find it now, that Friday's races will be drawn on Tuesday and Saturday's on Wednesday.

They're drawing both on Tuesday.

red desire
 

i understand she's run against males and won in dubai on the poly, and she ran a close 3rd to vodka last year, but one race since may.... i wasn't impressed with her flower bowl at all, not sure if she didn't like the surface or what...but i've heard a lot of buzz on her.

can anyone tell me the reason everyone seems to be high on her?


-bt-

Don't you find it humorous that you knock the fact she only had one race since May and then say you weren't impressed with it at all. It was a prep.

The connections pointed to the F&M Turf in July and did what, to my knowledge, no other Japanese horse has ever done in BC history, ship early and get a leg-stretching prep in the US. She beat Buena Vista in 2009 who will be a favorite in the Japan Cup, then ran 4th to her over a mile (well short of her best distance) in May...in 1:32.2. FWIW, Buena Vista ran 2000 last night in 1:58.2 over goodish going.

She bled in training and really wasn't possible to go in Japan, so instead of retiring her, they took a really good horse and got her some Lasix and said - let's go make some more money.

Not thrilled KD is on her, but she will be the single horse I bet most during the weekend, by far.

Not Soumillion?

none the less i wasn't overly impressed with her prep, i thought the horse had no excuse to lose that race. well, i guess we'll have to agree do disagree. The horse is a complete fade for me.

-bt-

Pat--what are your thoughts on the route Espoir City took to the Breeders Cup?

Paul

He'll have to beat Etched...

I would take that head to head matchup...

Paul

I similarly think the race in Japan was a true prep for the Classic (as Red Desire's Flower Bowl), and know that they pointed him to the Classic at the same time Red Desire was as well...but not happy that they didn't bring him here earlier to acclimate, and unimpressed with the trackwork I saw on Sunday.

Red Desire ran a huge race, and was asked for a ton, in the Maktoum Challenge in Dubai and came back to flop (relatively) in the Dubai World Cup. Seeing her take the Flower Bowl in stride was what I was looking for if I hoped to bet her on BC day.

What do you guys think of Shared Account's chances to hit the board?

I would give her almost no chance. The 2 Euros, Red Desire and Harmonious all look much better. Forever Together's running style could lead her to a clunk up third over SA IMO.

DISTAFF/LADIES CLASSIC (7:30p)

1. Life at Ten (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 7-2
2. It's Tea Time (R. Arnold/J. Leparoux) 15-1
3. Malibu Prayer (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 8-1
4. Milwaukee Appeal (S. Fairlie/R. Bejarano) 30-1
5. Acting Happy (R. Dutrow/J. Lezcano) 20-1
6. Persistently (C. McGaughey/A. Garcia) 12-1
7. Seeking the Title (D. Stewart/C. Borel) 30-1
8. Unrivaled Belle (B. Mott/K. Desormeaux) 8-1
9. Acoma (D. Carroll/R. Albarado) 20-1
10. Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario) 9-5*
11. Havre de Grace (A. Dutrow/J. Rose) 4-1

MARATHON (4:10p)

1. Atoned (N. Howard/R. Albarado) 20-1
2. Prince Will I Am (M. Nihei/J. Castellano) 4-1
3. Million Seller (G. Motion/J. Rose) 50-1
4. Eldaafer (D. Alvarado/J. Velazquez) 12-1
5. Romp (K. Mulhall/M. Garcia) 50-1
6. Gabriel's Hill (S. Benzel/J. Leparoux) 20-1
7. Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/D. Flores) 7-2*
8. Giant Oak (C. Block/J. Alvarado) 4-1
9. Bright Horizon (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 10-1
10. Alcomo (E. Caramori/G. Gomez) 6-1
11. Precision Break (P. Cole/J. Spencer) 6-1
12. A. U. Miner (C. Hanna/F. Pennington) 9-2

Atoned is 20-1? How wide can robbie go from the rail? Sign me up.