We're not assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% based on his number of mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip, period. He has 20% winners this meet.

Stats arent his strong point Rupert. I think thats pretty clear. Number of mounts have nothing to do with pure percentage of wins.

But they dont have the same win %. Do you not understand that? Good lord.

Just going by the way you present yourself on this board.

I don't know what he's so confused about. You don't need to do any complex calculations. If you want to know who would have more wins if they had an equal number of mounts, their win percentage will tell you that, that is assuming that their win percentage stays constant. If they had an equal number of mounts right now, Gomez would be up by 2. It's not rocket science.

Yes I undertsand that. Gomez's win percenatge is 1 point higher. That means that they would need to have 700 mounts a piece for Gomez to have a 7 win lead.

7 is 1% of 700.

LOL!!!! This is sixth grade stats!!!!

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

As I said before, I'm not sure what he is so confused about. If they both had 5000 mounts, then Gomez would have 50 more wins. But with only 200 mounts a piece, you would expect Gomez to be leading by 2.

LOL!!! This is pretty funny.

I get that. I am saying that Gomez would have 7.35 more wins. I dont understand why are you are so confused.

Right now, Prado has 25 more mounts and he is ahead by 3. If Prado sat out the rest of the meet and Gomez rode 25 more horses, you would expect Gomez to win 5 races and that would put him ahead of Prado by 2. If you want to give Gomez an additional 35 mounts, that would give him 10 more mounts than Prado, so if you give Gomez 35 more mounts, then you need to give Prado 10 more mounts. You would expect Prado to win 2 races from those 10 mounts. That means that he would be 2 wins behind Gomez.

Exactly.......

That is incorrect. If Gomez had an equal number of mounts with Prado right now, he would be ahead by 2 wins. You can ask anyone on this board. This is simple math. You won't find one person out of 50 that would agree with your math. You're saying that 1+1 = 3.

What I am doing is projections.

What do you mean "exactly"? If you agree that Gomez would be ahead by 2, then what were we debating about?

I am not projection that Gomez maintains his 20% win based on his past week.

From a math perspective, the only thing you guys should be looking at is the percentage, all the rest is relative

I haven't followed the conversation, and don't have time to from everything I can see, Gomez is technically winning on more of his rides then Prado is winning on his rides.

There are no projections that would show Gomez leading by 7 right now. He would have to win with 10 out of his next 25 mounts to be ahead by 7. The proper projection would be to assume that he would win with 5 of those mounts, putting him ahead by 2.

I am projecting two things here. 1) how many races he would win based on his last two weeks and 2 how that carries over given the same amounts as Prado. It is all hypothetical.

Also, when arguing math and percentages, I find it useful to use 100 as the base point because people understand 40% of 100 is 40 and 3% of 100 is 3

For future discussion. You guys throwing numbers like 5000 and 700 are hard numbers from a math perspective when you are talking percentages, at least for those that aren't quick with math

as in right now

Gomez is winning with 21 out of 100 mounts and Prado is winning with 20 out of every 100 thus Gomez is winning more races

Well, what are you projecting then? We can project that Gomez will win 12 races the next week and that Prado will win 2. Then Gomez will be ahead by 7.

I can project that JV would be the leading rider if he had more mounts. If JV can win at a 50% clip for the rest of the meet, then he may be leading rdier.

I am using data for Gomez and Prado from the past two weeks of riding. Then I am making the number of mounts equal to get that number. That is all. Nothing big nothing confusing.

When I tell you what the debate is about, you will think that I am joking. Prado has 3 more wins this meet than Gomez. Prado also has 25 more mounts. Eurobounce speculated that if Prado and Gomez had an equal number of monuts, that Gomez would be ahead by somewher between 5-7 wins. That makes no sense. Gomez is ridng at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect to win with 5 of those mounts. He is 3 behind Prado right now. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect him to win with 5 of those mounts. That would put him ahead of Prado by 2. Euro kept arguing that he would be ahead by 5-7.

What Euro said isnt completely impossible, given the fact that Gomez is a guy who could easily go 10 for 25 or 0 for 25 in that matter. Hes very streaky.
This is getting old again.

I said 5-7 based on my projections of current winning and number of mounts.

Thanks Gander--this is what I was trying to say.

My two cents...euro is arguing something that is more opinion based on trends, while oracle and Robert are using actual stats to back up their arguments.

Yeah you are correct. I always have to look at business trends to figure out what the heck is going on. For example, why are we more busy on a rainy Thursday than a sunny Thursday? If you can figure that out then please let me know.

I can tell you why Euro!! Studies have shown that people tend to do more tasks that they have been putting off an rainy days than they do on good weather days. Kind of like well today is going to suck anyways so why not just take care of all the pain in the ass tasks I need to get done like oil changes, paying bills, etc. I myself am guilty of this.

I have never thought about that. You might be correct on that one. It has been driving me nuts for a few years now. What is so funny about this business is that on Saturday morning between 6am and 7am all the old people show up. I am talking about 80 years old. Then around noon the younger people show up. Then around 5 the middle age men with golf clothes show up. It is too funny.

Euro, old people tend to rise very early, so this makes sense. If you look at a Church mass on Sunday morning, the earliest mass(usually 7 AM) is usually chock full of old folks. The younger crowd tends to party on Friday night which would explain them showing up at noon. The middle aged guys wake up, take care of the errands that the wife and kids need done, then try and play golf or the ponies on a Saturday. They then stop and hit the store, or in your case, get an oil change. had you given me those three groups without telling me which showed up when, I would have had all three pegged. Give me another group without telling me the times they show.

I will give you two good ones----Soccer Moms and laborers.

Soccer Moms would arrive in midmorning on weekdays, 11-2. The kiddies have been gotten off to school and they've cleaned up breakfast dishes and the house a little. Time to hit the grocery store and get an oil change.

Laborers tend to rise and go straight to work. They work their nuts off all day and the last thing they wanna do right after work is tedious errands. They wanna chill out and rest or have a few beers. They would come in the evening before going home for the night.

Cooter???? wasnt he on the Dukes of Hazzard???

You are pretty much dead on. Soccer moms are from 10-1 and always the day that the coupon expires (and they never really expire). Laborers are funny. First you are right, they always come in smelling like a good beer and cig. But they always want to be right there with the tech. Like they need to be under the hood. Freaking cracks me up.

People have more things to do on a sunny day.They don't mind getting in and out of the car alot. On rainy days, they don't want to have to do that...so....I quick trip to get the oil change....and boom....back to work.

That is totally different from what you were saying before. In the beginning part of the argument you were saying that you were figuring that Gomez would continue at a 20% clip.

Now you are saying something totally different. If you are basing your projections on the last two weeks, then you should have said so. You would have saved me a lot of wasted energy arguing. I agree that if Gomez stays as hot as he is right now, then he could beat Prado by more than a couple of wins if he had more mounts. Gomez could easily win 12 races the next week if he has a good week. We all know that.

However, I don't think anyone would say that if Gomez and Prado had an equal number of mounts right now, that Gomez would be ahead by 5-7 wins. The numbers don't show that. The numbers show that Gomez would be slightly ahead(by 2 wins). It's that simple.

This is tiresome already,also I'm confused how in the hell can you get a .35 win? Enough of this already.