Really?

You don't like him? Please expand on the one word reply, really.

I mean, you seemed to very "matter of factly" believe that Super Saver would win if he gets the rail, right?

The Derby is beginning to look like an aberration and winning it is always going to get Super Saver a lot of support at the windows. However, you have to believe he's going to rebound immensely in his 2nd start off a layoff to win this race and the price you're going to get on him doing that is just not worth it IMO.

NT

i'd use him if it's sloppy...and unlike some others, he's proven at 10f. there are certainly less likely horses in here; he may well surprise some doubters on saturday.

Six 9F races run @ SAR 7/30, 31 & 8/01

7/30 -- was that clown race won by Persistently, where the jocks played knockouts with each other and the last move won --- we'll throw this one out

7/31 --

R2 --- the Admiral Alex race goes 3-4-1 around the track but the top 3 were within 2 length of the lead at all times

R7 -- Arcodoro wires @ huge odds. the 3rd horse was 3rd, < 3 lengths back the 1st 3 calls.

R9 -- Jim Dandy goes 2-1 (essentially a duel around the track), with nothing running late

8/01

R8 -- CUrlin stakes --- Winslow HOmer goes wire to wire in a pronounced wipeout, that went 1-2 around the track

R9 -- Ruffian -- 1-2 around the track

Now, some of these results might make good sense in terms of the setups/pace but it also appears that there was a 2-turn bias on those days.

I don't want the Jim Dandy horses back. That much is clear.

Yes, maybe. I think his last 2 starts have cooled his appeal quite abit, plus he has a bad post. I'm hoping these 2 factors plus the belief that many believe the derby was aberation will offset the blind appeal of betting a derby winner. You may have a point, but he does have alot of questions to answer this race. I also think there are going to be quite a few wiseguy choices in this race, he should be a square price.

As for the rail, I can see him up on the pace but Borel just slotting himself behind the speed horses, I love horses that run an awful line and handicappers concentrating on that last race. I think he will run well this Saturday and if Borel can get him to the first turn just off the leaders and no more than 3 wide he should be able to slot him inside once they make the turn. If Pletch has him ready he should be in a prime sit and pounce position.

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.

Gotta think he's looking hard at the Pennsylvania Derby or elsewhere.

If he comes out Super Saver, First Dude, Afleet Express, Friend Or Foe, Trappe Shot and A Little Warm have all shown enough speed to be prominent early, so we could see 1 or 2 premature moves down the backstretch.

Personally, I think Trappe Shot, if he's still in one piece, will break out here. Whereas A Little Warm seemed to have ideal runs in his last pair, Trappe Shot has had at least some minor traffic issues to deal with and done fairly well. The 10f seems to be within range for him, too, which is ironic because he was considered for the 7f King's Bishop as well, something perhaps the connections of Afleet Express and Friend Or Foe should have seriously considered as well.

It's not a killer field, if one uses a projected beyer to win this race, he is one that can certainly hit the mark. He runs big or he flops into obscurity.

He does have two other horses entered, but their chances would both take a serious hit if Miner's Reserve scratched for another spot.

Very doubtful Miner's Reserve scratches-the reason why he is running is because Zito and the owner wanted him in the race. He was iffy last week cause he didnt have a jockey and was not sure but he had a great workout and gotta be in

Plus he helps out Fly Down big time if he runs. More speed out front

He was and is still iffy. Zito said he's undecided as to whether to run MR - they are looking at the Smarty Jones for him. I don't think La Penta would want his horse entered as mostly a way to help Fly Down.

What about being entered as mostly a way to help Ice Box?

NT

miner's reserve earned a spot here; i hope they don't opt to go elsewhere. i think he belongs more than the other two at this point.

A friend of mine in the media, who has been friendly with Nick for years asked him about "going with 3" on Sat, and he was snarled at. I'm not sure Zito is all that in favor of MR in this spot.

Does La Penta own Ice Box? Either way, he's a nice horse - I'd hate to see him be used as a rabbit.

I think Nicky likes Ice Box best.......then Fly Down. I don't think he's that enamored of MR - his quotes abou MR do not exactly radiate confidence.

I think Ice Box is overrated and although I like Fly Down a lot, he didn't show anything in the Jim Dandy.

I'd go with Super Saver here if they move the race to CD.

Travers looks relatively easy....
A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve
My money will probably go on MR as he is improving, works look good.
If he can avoid a duel with First Dude, he is much faster.
He's got the rail, not sure if that is bad or good. In top form, he could clear this field & hold off ALW. Spa's been speed-favoring.
I'll box 'em
JMO

Very easy race. You're right.

Will you be here?
What do you think of the pick 4? After looking at the pps Im not as excited. I might be more into the early pick 4.

Nah working from down here. . . I think the late pk4 looks pressable.

Pressable? Hmm..
Discreetly Mine is not a toss, but Im likely to use 3. Who do you like in the Victory Ride? Are you really pressing Qualia? I think she finally busts out, but her hang job last time is really disapointing.
Back to the Victory Ride... I would say the 3,4,5,7,8,9 can all win, with the 3 being the total key to the race. Does she put them all on the chase and cause a meltdown, or does she get brave? The 8 being least likely of the ones I mentioned, but in a spread I think I would cover.

Katy Now borders on a single for me. Not sure about who, if anyone, to back up with.

Against the chalk in Ballerina. Will use Qualia and 2 or 3 others.

Discreetly Mine is basically a single. Might back up w/ someone weird like the 6. . . maybe 2.

Afleet Express, Fly Down, Trappe Shot, Friend Or Foe.

Friend Or Foe is another toss for me, I forgot about him. I'm not letting Baffert beat me in the Bishop.

Rapport looks like the speed of the speed. I'd take her heads up against Katy Now.

Fly Down be the winner.

What do you like about Friend or Foe?

What do you like about First Dude? He has danced all the dances vs the best of this crop and has not been good enough. Now he faces some new guns plus the same horses, and a fair amount of early speed. I think he has very little chance.

He ran well enough to me last time that I'm tossing him in as my fourth horse. Considering the horses I'm for and the horses I'm against it makes sense to use him at a big price.

Why do you like Katty Now so much?
Shes logical for sure, she might even be on of my a's. But, a single?

So First Dude has little chance, but Admiral Alex does? Yeah, that makes sense.

To be honest, I liked First Dude a lot more before I found out Miners Reserve was in the race. But, I think he's better than his last race. Out of the horses that will be near the lead, he's the only one I think will be around at the end and the addition of blinkers should have him more focused. As of right now I'll probably just bet Ice Box to win and use IB, First Dude, Fly Down and Afleet Express in multi's.

I'll probably eat crow, but I want no part of Trappe Shot. I don't think he wants any part of 10 furlongs.

I want to use Fly Down and Afleet Express in multis and call it a day, but I do not trust Lezcano.

In the baby race on the Travers undercard ... Dominguez is named to ride on an Albertrani debuter by Henny Hughes out of Stormy Blues that is 12/1 on the morning line.

Stormy Blues won her debut by 16 lengths and was in a recent trivia thread..



Henny Hughes was also a very fast 2yo sprinter ... if that horse is live on the board it should be dangerous.

She reminds me of a lot of 3-year-olds who do well turning back after they've failed at longer distances. She can lay close enough to track the Baffert, who will either have to go crazy again to be loose on the lead or get pestered by a few others if they try to slow her down.

If its live is the big question. HH has been pretty bad, and it seems like his horses are showing up on turf a lot.
Im actually falling in love with the 4 in there, Im waiting for a PM from Gales to confirm.

Any IC babies on the card?

First Dude has a way better chance of winning than Admiral Alex however just watch the Belmont to see what will happen. First Dude will lead them around the whole way while posting nice fractions(No Jim Dandy here where 2 horses go 3F in 2 min:p) with Miner's Reserve pushing him.

The problem with ALW and Miner's Reserve and looking at the Jim Dandy is they got away with the lead. This won't happen in this race,First Dude is going out front and he has already shown he can take the lead all the way around.

Sets up perfect for Fly Down,Afleet Express and somewhat Ice Box.

I could see Friend or Foe hitting the board tho at a nice price.

Im looking at the wrong race, I was talking the 5th.

Yeah - if the Pletcher IC colt wins the 6th race - we could probably just concede next years triple crown to him. He's named after FreddyMo.

So, he's athletic, swift and smart?