kev you gotta bear in mind that they can play games too with the spacing of works , just like they do with the times

Screw all that crap, Gales, WE WANT EDDIE K UPDATES!!!!!

nt

listening to Payson Dave is better than listening to the trainers IMO.

sometimes you can get a good tip on firsters though.

But I agree with jms. If I'm going to put $ on a firster, I want to see a bullet in the final work or two, and I prefer to see it at 5 furlongs, not 3 furlongs.

But I'm not much of a handicapper at all, I could be way off base.

But Payson Dave and that workout (and sometimes breeding and trainer 1st time stats) are all I'll bet firsters off of.

Usually, maiden races like this are just best to enjoy without a wager though... IMO

Three of the first four horses in the 3rd today are Dance With Ravens debuters going 5.5f. Wow.

I wouldn't be shocked if all three of them are prepping for turf routes.

The goofy ass one starting from the rail RNA'd for 12K a few months ago. Long stride and pretty green.

The dam of the David Donk one won her debut on the turf and won a stake goign 9f on turf.

The dam of the Aquilino won her debut going 4.5 furlongs on the dirt and was actually a solid 4th to Flanders in the Spinaway. Later ended up being a Graded Stakes winning turf router.

If any of those horses can run at all .. it will most likely be going long on turf.

oh boy...maybe I should remove my tounge from my cheek now:rolleyes:

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

What do you look for in a work? I actually figured that Stay Thirsty was going to run soon based on his last work, 51 and change. Prior to that he'd worked in 48 and change, breezing, so I figured Pletcher was just sending him out for some excercise. Of course he already has experience.............

That makes sense, so then how do you bet a race like this? I figure Stay Thirsty will be the favorite, but how do you determine which firsters to play? Pedigree?

Watch the board. Beyond that, look for win early sires/trainers/dams/siblings.

I agree. There's nothing funnier than listening to someone tell you how a Steve Asmussen horse can't win because their works are so slow. I don't ever listen to what anyone else has to say about a workout unless I know that they saw it or look at the way that trainer prepares their horses on a day to day basis.

The winner we just had in the 2nd was one of those that pops up that you can't be ready for. The horse had gaps in her workouts, was basically purchased from the dollar store at the sale and had nothing in her pedigree to lead you to believe she could win now or ever by ten lengths at Saratoga.

NT

Ralph Nicks isn't exactly John Shirreffs of 10 years ago - but he was 22% with debuters at a $6.39 ROI on paper coming in - and I don't think that stat includes his debut winner from a few days ago in the turf sprint. The ROI is so high because he had an $82 debut winner at KEE last year. Lion Heart is ok win early - and the fact that the horse sold for 11K as a yearling could be taken as a big positive ... because horses who sell that cheap as yearlings often debut for a tag when they go to a trainer who will place them aggressively.

I was hoping the horse would take money - She didn't so I pitched her.

1. Any Given Saturday only won his debut by a nose at Turfway Park. If by some miracle this ones as good as him - he'll need to be plenty better on debut to win this. Pass.

2. Not on debut at 6f against these. Pass.

3. Good deal of money to pay for a Roman Ruler out of a Silver Charm dam that's produced nothing. Was a colt when they bought him - is a gelding now. Would have to be pretty live on the board to use.

4. same comment as #2

5. Ralph Nicks - by Officer out of Forty Niner mare - 40K weanling turned 230K yearling. Gomez rides. Lots to like.

6. 200K yearling turned 2.3 million 2yo less than six months later. I wasn't quite as dazzled by its preview as much as some were - but its still a use.

7. No

8. Sold for 37K as a yearling in Jan - and 400K as a yearling in July. I guess when your by a young unproven sire in Jan - and your by the sire who threw both the Derby and Belmont winner come July - and you've filled out well and have Seattle Slew on the bottom that can happen. I'll pass unless this one is rabidly live on the board.

9. Same comment as 2 and 4

10. Coming out of a very strong MSW race, adding blinkers, two works since the race - a lot of reasons to improve but I hate Lukas and will play against this stopper.

11. 160k yl turned 500k 2yo - earned a figure in defeat in debut that's faster than winning par for a 2yo MSW at Saratoga. You're supposed to single these horses every time in races like this... but I don't want a short price on a Bernardini going just 6fs .. especially when the dams only career win came going 12fs in Europe on poly at Lingfield and its a half sibling to two monumental prick teases in Superfly and Andromedia's Hero.

The bet: backwheel the 11 in 2nd place in the exacta ... with the 5 and 6. If either the 3 or 8 happens to be live - include them in the top slot as well.

Solid analysis Doug.

Especially when there is no way, on paper, to tell which works were fiction and which were non-fiction.

I'm surprised Pletcher is running Stay Thirsty at 6 furlongs, but I suppose there weren't any 7 furlong races scheduled for awhile.

amen brother and so is betting heavily on those two year old races. throw darts...pick your favorite number or color.....i hope everyone had valiant passion at 30-1.....she won like she was 1-9....i guess she was working badly .....lol.....lol. bet those ridiculous races at your own risk! a little , yeah, if you get lucky...so be it. if you are betting them like you seriously know what might happen....you are a moron.

Exactly.
I think workouts only matter if an actual pattern can be ascertained (for either the trainer or the horse). If a trainer typically works his horses fast (Baffert) and you see a debut animal that isn't working fast....okay, maybe that tells you something. If a trainer doesn't have a pattern, however, or if you just don't know what that trainer's pattern is, then I'm not sure workouts tell you anything. For horses with experience I might look at a pattern in works too. If a horse consistently has a bullet work right before their best races, then okay, that might tell you something too.

The other thing that is just like this is when people talk about how a horse acts in the paddock or the post parade. I guess some people really do get info from that, but 99% of people that talk about that stuff are full of crap. Like workouts, I only really think it matters if you can determine a pattern. They'll invariably be some dude saying, "Oh! the favorite looks worked up and agitated in the paddock. I'm not betting him!" Of course, the dude has no idea if the horse looked "worked up and agitated" before any of the horse's previous starts, and if there is any connection between times he looked worked up and times he ran poorly.

Good analysis of the race Doug, but this one confuses me a bit. If you are tossing the #1 because of the pedigree (DH / AP Indy mare), wouldn't the Asmussen colt (DH / AP Indy mare) need to be tossed by the same logic?
Or do you believe that the big price tag alone makes that one a must use?

I'm never betting a Violette firster again...

In the TDN Berkelhammer and Nicks said they basically last minute decided to buy Valiant Passion and didn't even vet her. They also dangled the "for sale" sign after yesterday.

I know, because now Rick is only 22% first time out, with a $2.46ROI the past 3 years.
16 second place finishes, 10 thirds....

Brock worked an unblinkered :10 and 3/5 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale and looked very smooth doing it, though I'll defer to Doug regarding the move because he watches way more of them than I do.

As far as Heisman, the dam's first foal broke her maiden by almost five lengths on the inner track and AGS broke his maiden, like Doug said, in a scintillating Polytrack win at Turfway. I wouldn't put it bast Heisman or Brock to be very strong at first asking while ultimately having the most success they can going long.

NT

One of the most overrated trainers in the game IMO. He's good with horses making their debut and for that reason alone he continues to get expensive horses that run one or two good races and then you need a searchlight to find them.

Its actually only one good race most of the time. He pops with a price on turf every so often, last week with Garcia last year at Toga with a NY bred that I forget the name of.
He bring Not Macho Any More back on Saturday, I think that race sets up nicely for him, but I have the same concerns you have... Bulls and Bears came back at Gulfstream and looked like a POS.
Sightseeks comment was a firster, and I dont see any problem betting him first out. I bet him first out when he beat Stay Thirsty.... You can still get a very fair price if Todd, Steve or anyone else has a big name horse going.

The guys firsters all get bet. I'm not sure how that equates to getting a fair price on them, but it's 2010. Everyone is privy to the same stats that show how good he does first out.

It's a catch 22, because you almost have to use his horses, but they rarely offer value IMO.

Exactly.

..

Can you break that down to Saratoga only? Was it last year that nearly every debuter he had went out 3/5 and didn't run to it?

Ill get you Toga...But you never said Toga you said first time out. HE RUNS BELMONT, HE DOMINATES THE BABY RACES, His firsters run Todds into the ground.

Sightseek... The Toga numbers are solid enough, if not really good.


13/63 16% $2.27ROI first out, Toga past 3 years.

Kind of like that firster you started a thread about this spring that did nothing? :p

Thanks for looking.

He's screwed me out of nice scores twice in the past three years by not having his big debut winners ready for stakes. Cribnote going to buy a beer in the grandstand in '08 and It's the Big Cat forgetting how to break from the gate this year. Like you said, he can win first time out and that's about it.

The only winner he has in a graded stake with a 2YO over the last five years is Worstcasescenario's win in the Adirondack last year. He also seems to have really stupid things happen in these races like Cribnote losing his mind, BUlls and BEars getting left, Bail Out the Cat being unprepared for the start, etc.

NT

Yeah, Bail Out the Cat, that's the horse. I got him confused with a rat NY-bred turf horse. It's the Big Cat at least could've broken with the field.

Its been three times for me your 2, plus Bulls and Bears.

I dont like Rick V bashing, please stop.

Yeah. Even though Brock's under-tack preview didn't exactly strike me as the type of horse I'm crazy about playing in a debut sprint - you have to respect a horse who pinhooks for 11.5 times his value six months later and sells for $2.3 million. He was basically like the first pick of the draft among the people putting up the money.

Or he is the guy who drafted Eli Manning first overall in their fantasy draft because he is a Giants fan.

Rick Violette at Saratoga with 2-year-olds has been an amazing angle going back at least as far as 1998. He goes out and gets the right type of horses for those races and he gets them ready.

Most of the time - those horses won't develop much. But there are exceptions like Dream Rush, High Finance, Read the Footnotes, Summer Doldrums etc.

He's a pretty solid turf trainer when given the kind of horse who isn't a win-early fast 2yo sale type. He developed Man From Wicklow well.

5 YEARS overall was horrible, I had to make it 3.