Originally Posted by Scav (Post 680804)

Her dirt wins have been her best wins IMO. You can't change who shows up to face her, if there wasn't so many graded stakes races then there would be competitive races, why does everyone have such a hard on for her to ship across the country. I don't see people shipping from NY all the way to California every single day.

When she drills Rachel Alexandra they will blame something or someone. When she wins the BC Classic this year, people will still find something comedy to say. Its a tiresome argument.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680802)

Just to repeat what I said in an edited post earlier, I understand where you are all coming from. The grade 1s against fillies on the west coast are not very challening races for Z. As others have said, these races are almost like exhibitions. It is somewhat boring to watch Z beat up on medicore fillies. I agree with that. I see where you're all coming from. I understand why you would be frustrated. I don't blame you. But by the same token, I understand why the connections are doing what they are doing and I can't really fault them at this point. If they would have refused to face RA in the AB earlier in the year, then I would have faulted them. But they were actually eager to face RA. At this point, it's different. They are very close to their goal and they don't want to do anything to screw it up. I can't blame them . I see where they're coming from. I also see where you are all coming from and I understand your frustration.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch (Post 680807)

Here's another fallacy you Zen folks can't seem to get through your heads. It isn't about facing Rachel Alexandra. Get that. It's about PROVING you are a great horse by beating the best competition in the best races. The owners of the best horses always looked for the best races to show their stuff in, but these guys are different. They are more interested in protecting a record than running against the best horses. The filly crop of older horses is pathetic, but at least they could try to beat Misremembered in the Big Cap. That shouldn't be a problem if she is all you think she is.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680806)

Just because your boner from being at Santa Anita and 'hearing the crowd roar' still hasn't gone down, doesn't mean we can't be dissatisfied with her campaign. If she beats Rachel and wins the BCC, it'll make me sad, not 'comedy'. Not sad because she proved me wrong or some other nonsense. Sad because we had a truly great horse whose talent was completely wasted for four years running on a joke surface against almost nothing but crows.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch (Post 680807)

Here's another fallacy you Zen folks can't seem to get through your heads. It isn't about facing Rachel Alexandra. Get that. It's about PROVING you are a great horse by beating the best competition in the best races. The owners of the best horses always looked for the best races to show their stuff in, but these guys are different. They are more interested in protecting a record than running against the best horses. The filly crop of older horses is pathetic, but at least they could try to beat Misremembered in the Big Cap. That shouldn't be a problem if she is all you think she is.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680806)

Just because your boner from being at Santa Anita and 'hearing the crowd roar' still hasn't gone down, doesn't mean we can't be dissatisfied with her campaign. If she beats Rachel and wins the BCC, it'll make me sad, not 'comedy'. Not sad because she proved me wrong or some other nonsense. Sad because we had a truly great horse whose talent was completely wasted for four years running on a joke surface against almost nothing but crows.

Originally Posted by Scav

Who says I am not dissatisfied? Quite honestly, I feel all the races she runs this year are bonus because she was suppose to be retired.

Originally Posted by Scav

She can't control who shows up to run, she ran at Oaklawn and no one showed up, same would happen in NY or anywhere else.

Originally Posted by Scav

Oh, and sorry for being excited about being at the great race place for a great race, sure beats being onsite and cheering one of those NY bred turf sprints home....

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 680810)

Who says I am not dissatisfied? Quite honestly, I feel all the races she runs this year are bonus because she was suppose to be retired.

She can't control who shows up to run, she ran at Oaklawn and no one showed up, same would happen in NY or anywhere else.

Oh, and sorry for being excited about being at the great race place for a great race, sure beats being onsite and cheering one of those NY bred turf sprints home....

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680811)

Um, doesn't that mean you're not dissatisfied?



Then take on some of those monstrous males in your backyard. Or is that too stressful for her?



Yeah, because I've never seen any big races living in NY. Go back to trying to get people outside of Illinois to care about Arlington Million Day.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680811)

Um, doesn't that mean you're not dissatisfied?

Then take on some of those monstrous males in your backyard. Or is that too stressful for her?

Yeah, because I've never seen any big races living in NY. Go back to trying to get people outside of Illinois to care about Arlington Million Day.

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 680812)

Has your boner really not gone down since the BC last year? That must hurt.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch (Post 680807)

Here's another fallacy you Zen folks can't seem to get through your heads. It isn't about facing Rachel Alexandra. Get that. It's about PROVING you are a great horse by beating the best competition in the best races. The owners of the best horses always looked for the best races to show their stuff in, but these guys are different. They are more interested in protecting a record than running against the best horses. The filly crop of older horses is pathetic, but at least they could try to beat Misremembered in the Big Cap. That shouldn't be a problem if she is all you think she is.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680817)

You say, "The owners of the best horses always looked for the best races to show their stuff in, but these guys are different."

That is untrue. Most of the great mares usually run against mares. Some of them run against the boys sometimes, but that's not really expected and that's not really the norm. If you look at the records of most great mares, the majority of them usually ran against mares. It may be a little different in Europe, but not over here.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680805)

Really? So now the discussion is about broodmare value? Nice deflection. We're talking about level of competition, and it has been piss poor. Period. Enough with the excuses.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680822)

The point about broodmare value is that as long as grade 1s are so important for broodmare value, you're never going to get really easy grade 1s.

You have to remember that one of the reasons these races out west have been so easy is because Z is scaring the competition away. If Z wasn't in these races, you would have more shippers from the east coast coming out west to win a grade I. Top mares from the east coast don't want to fly out west to face Z. If Z wasn't in these races, you would have more of these top mares coming out west for a grade I. It's not Z's fault that she's scaring the competition away. That is the point you are missing.

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 680804)

Her dirt wins have been her best wins IMO.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680822)

The point about broodmare value is that as long as grade 1s are so important for broodmare value, you're never going to get really easy grade 1s.

You have to remember that one of the reasons these races out west have been so easy is because Z is scaring the competition away. If Z wasn't in these races, you would have more shippers from the east coast coming out west to win a grade I. Top mares from the east coast don't want to fly out west to face Z. If Z wasn't in these races, you would have more of thse top mares coming out west for a grade I. It's not Z's fault that she's scaring the competition away.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680826)

You're contradicting yourself. "As long as Grade 1's are important for broodmare value, there aren't easy Grade 1's. The reason these Grade 1's are so easy.."

Your point is, essentially, there are no California synthetic mares who can beat Zenyatta. Truly groundbreaking stuff. The "no east coast shippers want to take on Zenyatta" thing holds no water, because the playing field is not even close to level for dirt horses on the crap Zenyatta runs on. If Zenyatta weren't in these races, you may get two or three east coast dirt horses a year spinning the roulette wheel on synthetic, but the difference would be negligible. It's mainly the surface and its neutralization of dirt horses.

And please, I'm begging you, stop starting sentences with "It's not Zenyatta's fault.." It's completely meaningless. Who's blaming the actual horse? The connections are chickenshit. You have no counterargument.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680830)

When I say "it's not Z's fault", I mean it's not her connections fault that people don't want to face her.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680817)

You say, "The owners of the best horses always looked for the best races to show their stuff in, but these guys are different."

That is untrue. Most of the great mares usually run against mares. Some of them run against the boys sometimes, but that's not really expected and that's not really the norm. If you look at the records of most great mares, the majority of them usually ran against mares. It may be a little different in Europe, but not over here.

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 680824)

:zz: Did they fill up those collectible Zenyatta glasses with free kool-aid?

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 680825)

I laughed.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680847)

Z ran much faster than they did. I think she could have run her another 1/16th of a mile in a lot faster than 7 4/5 seconds. I think Z's legitmate Beyer that day was around 115.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680847)

If you don't think her 2008 Apple Blossom was a huge race and possibly her best race, I don't know what you're smoking.

She ran 1:42 3/5 that day. They originally had the wrong time posted for the Oaklawn Handicap because the clock was screwed up. But after they fixed it and re-timed the race, it turns out that Tiago and Heatseeker ran 1:50 2/5 just two races later. At that time, they were two of the top 5 best colts in the country. On their best day, and I think they both ran their best that day, they were both very good horses.

Z ran much faster than they did. I think she could have run her another 1/16th of a mile in a lot faster than 7 4/5 seconds. I think Z's legitmate Beyer that day was around 115.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680851)

So Brownie Points ran a 107 that day?

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 680855)

You have it all wrong.

The correct final time for the Tiago race when re-timed was 1:48.60

Here's the chart: http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...0405&raceNo=10

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 680851)

So Brownie Points ran a 107 that day?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680861)

Racereplays.com has the final times as 1:50.34. If you watch the replay of the race and you clock it, you will get 1:50 1/5 or 1:50 2/5. I know there is nothing wrong with my stop-watch because when I clock the Apple Blossom, I get 1:42 3/5.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680863)

She beat her by 4 1/2 lengths, so BP probably ran a 106. It wouldn't be all that shocking. I'm sure there have been plenty of mediocre horses that have run big numbers as also rans in fast races.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680863)

She beat her by 4 1/2 lengths, so BP probably ran a 106.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 680864)

I'll take the word of Equibase, Oaklawn Park, and Randy's Moss's fancy ESPN timer equipment over your stop watch.

Who knows though ... Maybe Brownie Points was a true superstar.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 680868)

4.5 lengths at 8.5 furlongs equals 8 points. It would be a 107.

When you consider Brownie Points ran 13 times on dirt - and the best figure she ever got in her life was easily the 96 when 2nd to Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom .. I think your 107 stop watch figure for her is a little high. The next time she ran on dirt - Miss Isella smoked her.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680870)

I guess if she ran a 106 Beyer one time as an also-ran, then that would make her a superstar. No mediocre horse has ever done that before.

What kind of numbers were Heatseeker and Tiago running at the time?

If you have time, go and clock the AB and the OH. You will see that the OH was in fact run in 1:50.34

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680873)

My number could be a little high. Myabe Z ran a 112 that day.

With regard to BP, horses do step up sometimes for a career best as also rans in a fast race. Look at Musket Man. He'd run a 99, a 102, and a 95 this year. Then he ran a 109 chasing QR in the Met Mile. What did MM run over the weekend? Around 100? Yet he somehow ran a 109 in the Met Mile. You are the numbers guy, not me, but I'm sure that this type of thing is not that unusual.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680839)

What I'm saying isn't even debatable.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680839)

I'm not saying anything controversial.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680839)

You must not be in the horse business. The main goal of anyone that owns a mare is to win a grade I. That's how you increase your mare's value dramatically. Everyone wants their mare to win a grade I. The value of your mare goes up 5x overnight.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680839)

Anyone with a good mare is looking to win a grade I. If you're back east and you're looking to get a grade I win, you will strongly consider shipping out west. It's been done a lot over the years. It's even done with colts to increase their value. It's probably not done quite as much now with the synthetics but it's still done.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680839)

Anyway, if a trainer is deciding whether or not to send his mare out west to try to win a grade I, you don't think Zenyatta's presence in the race will have a huge impact on the guy's decision. If you don't, then you are the one drinking the cool-aid.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 680873)

My number could be a little high. Myabe Z ran a 112 that day.

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 680897)

DrugS, how'd you expect Azeri to do vs her 5th place Classic finish and how'd you think she'd have fared in the 2002 BCC field rather than the Distaff?

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 680884)

Of course it is, because you're making no logical points. It's like making fun of Sarah Palin. At some point, you're just being mean for picking on a weaker kid.



Yeah you are, cuz people are arguing with you. Did you not notice that part?



Her value has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion:

1) They won't sell her. I bet they won't sell her offspring unless it's sending a colt to stud, and exactly how will anything she does in 2010 affect that? I don't think getting HOY would impact progeny value at this point. She's transcended it. She and Rachel are Hall of Fame bound and both sets of owners are probably gonna apply for the beatification process rather than sell their respective queens. End of.

2) What does being in the business or not being in the business have to do with logic? Jess Jackson's "in the horse business" and I have yet to understand very much of what he says or does. It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a rocket scientist who moonlights "in the horse business" :rolleyes: since I know how particular you are) to figure out that a mare is better off with a G1 than a G2 win. The only reason Zenyatta isn't in a bunch of walkovers is those owners like getting G1 placings. (Well not the only reason. She's teasing them with the close finishes to mediocre horses so some come back for more hoping she'll slip up one day, and if she doesn't, here ya go. Another G1 placing).

3) She's got a million G1s and the Breeders Cup Classic to boot. There's zero that racing her in the Vanity, the Clement Hirsch, the Zenyatta Stakes this year will do to her value. Another Classic win would matter for her legend. Possibly her value, but again, they're not gonna sell her majesty.

4) Why are you referencing what other people aspire to with their mares? That has nothing to do with the Mosses' decisions. They know they have a superhorse that has as many G1s as a 14yo boy has zits. Racking up more isn't the point so much as that's the level she belongs at. She's so clearly dominant at filly or mare G1s at CA that there's no reason not to go in them if only to pick up the bigger purses with ease.



Way to deflect the argument again. Why a mare owner runs their horse in a G1 is obvious. Why they'd go west is not. They have a G1 over a dirt surface at their home track and they go to CA why? Zenyatta's supposedly better on dirt, and synthetics seems to take the edge off dirt horses with speed. Why not go to a track that benefits both Zenyatta and her competition? Why does either have to compete with one hoof tied behind their back?



I seriously doubt it heavily affected the decisions of many of the dirt horses in the East or "east" since that apparently applies to Churchill and Oaklawn nowadays. The bigger factor--the surface. They learned their lesson. Horses that do go west are either taking a shot in the dark or they've shown they like synthetics too. The big question for the ones that don't ship is why bother?

There's no competition staying in California unless she tries open company. I get why they're doing it, but it's frustrating. The idea that not coming to her makes the rest of the horses outside California a bunch of chickens is nuts. No, a G1 isn't the be all end all when it's on synthetics and requires a cross-country flight.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 680888)

Brownie Points was a pretty nice honest horse who normally fired the same type of race.



I guess its possible that both Randy Moss and Equibase got the time wrong, and that BP could have ran one standout huge figure over the course of her career that happened to come while getting absolutely crushed by a better horse - but I doubt it.

The 2010 Apple Blossom performance by Zenyatta was more recent and less impressive imo.. and it was followed up with two near photo finish wins.

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 680879)

Of course he didn't run 100 this weekend. He ran much closer to 109 than 100. How can that be your evidence and you are miles wrong?

As for Shirreffs, please about the string already. He has 59 starts all year.