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-   -   Saratoga Pick 4's (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37408)

Dahoss 07-27-2010 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 674764)
To the casual fan Babara is good on the drop, just like in will say in the form.
Taking a closer look tells me most of those big stats are at Belmont and Aqueduct, its a different game at Toga.

Past 5 years at Toga MSW-MCL 0-4... Of course its not a big sample but one of these was a 5-1 dud this year already.

Maiden Claiming Races past 5 years at Toga he is 1/14 with a .90 cent ROI. Two of those 14 bombed at around 3-1. His only winner is a turf runner.

If you go just Maiden Claim on dirt you will get 0/13.

Lezcano is also an ice cold 0/15 at the meet.

I think we all get it. You finally found formulator and how to use it. Welcome to 2010.

To the casual fan.....that's pretty funny. Good luck with your team's fantasy plays.

RockHardTen1985 07-27-2010 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 674810)
I think we all get it. You finally found formulator and how to use it. Welcome to 2010.

To the casual fan.....that's pretty funny. Good luck with your team's fantasy plays.

No need for this. If Im wrong, I lose $50, lol PLUS A FEW MORE BUCKS.

gales0678 07-27-2010 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 674663)
Coach of course luck is involved, but I put a lot of time into it and I expect a positive ROI following this structure of $120 and $160 on Saturdays/ just pick 4's.

hey joe who is in your avaitar?

RockHardTen1985 07-27-2010 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678 (Post 674906)
hey joe who is in your avaitar?

Hey Gales, how are you? My AVATAR IS THE FACE OF NYRA.
Any tips for me? PM me.

Dahoss 07-28-2010 12:02 PM

7/28

Early
$3 6/5/4,10/2,5,6 $18
$1 6/2,6/4,10/2,5,6 $12
$1 3/2,5,6/4,10/2,5,6 $18

$48 total

Late
$1 2,4,6,12/1,2,5/2,5,6,9/6,8 $96
$1 12/1,2,5/6,9/8 $6

$102 total

knickslions2 07-28-2010 12:20 PM

Early

4,6
1,4,6,8
1,4,5,6
8

Bet $64

MISTERGEE 07-28-2010 12:23 PM

early

3-4-6
1-2-4
1-4
2-6-8-9

total $72

tiggerv 07-28-2010 12:24 PM

Below is my all A ticket. Tough sequence that I didn't have a good handle on. I probably threw too much money at it with backup tickets but hopefully the right price horses come in.

Early P4

3,4,6
5,6
1,4
2,6,8,10

$48

MISTERGEE 07-28-2010 12:28 PM

late pic 4

8-10
1-6
5-6-9-12
3-6-7-10

RockHardTen1985 07-28-2010 12:30 PM

Good Luck Guys, this sequence is really tough.

knickslions2 07-28-2010 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 675080)
Below is my all A ticket. Tough sequence that I didn't have a good handle on. I probably threw too much money at it with backup tickets but hopefully the right price horses come in.

Early P4

3,4,6
5,6
1,4
2,6,8,10

$48

Bring it home!!

knickslions2 07-28-2010 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 674731)
Wednesday Early Pick 4, Ticket #1

4/2,3,4,5,8/1,4/1,5,6,7,8 $1, $50

THis sequence SUCKS, taking stands in the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd is much more of stand, I feel really good about my 2 in the 4th. I dont want Dutrow in the 3rd, really dont want Jacobson either, will cover him though because even though it was vs lesser competition his last was really good. IMO this is the same as a flat $50 win bet on Mcpeek in the second. If she gets home, this is very likely to be a winning ticket. Julian needs to put her in the race early like last time, the layoff does not scare me because the Trombetta horse SUCKS, and the other contenders are off similar layoffs. I think Dollase's horse who has the edge of recent races will be left with 2 much to do. The firsters, the trainers dont win in these spots, if one of them pops, Im beat. The 4th, Al Stall is 7/19 dropping allowance/claimer on turf... Gomez up tells me that horse is primed, will use the 1 thinking he can bounce back. GoOD Luck, this leaves us with $100 for the late pick 4.

Late pick 4, Ticket #2

6,8,10,12/1,6/1,6,9,12/6,7,10 $1, $96

The 7th looks like a total meltdown. THe 6 looks like the fastest horse but needs to show it in NY, the 1 should get the trip for a really dangerous trainer/jockey combo. THe 6th, Chad Brown is hot and Im thinking the Bond barn will eventually heat up. Those 2 are the mains, I will respect Jerkens and the Kentucky shipper really dont think anyone else can win the 6th. The Stakes race might be more wide open then I originally thought, I think the 1 will run huge but there are a few good ones in there. I love the switch to Julian on the Mott.

Bring it home

tiggerv 07-28-2010 01:57 PM

Thanks. I need a price here. I have 4 of them covered for $2 and 4 of them covered for $1. If it chalks out with the 8 then I am actually looking at a loss. :mad: I really need the Finger Lakes shipper to get up but he is ice cold on the board

knickslions2 07-28-2010 02:03 PM

Late pick 4

4,7,8,10
6
4,8,11,12
3,10

Bet $64

(This is tough)

MISTERGEE 07-28-2010 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE (Post 675078)
early

3-4-6
1-2-4
1-4
2-6-8-9

total $72

very typical 3 for 4 while having the long price in the 5th but not the favorite in the 3rd

hoovesupsideyourhead 07-28-2010 02:41 PM

late 2/4/8/12

2/5
1/2
6/5/7/11

win place on the 2 in the first leg and the 11 in the last.

tiggerv 07-28-2010 02:45 PM

Got lucky with the price horse in the 5th. Another tough sequence.

Late P4 - 4A ticket

4,7,10
1,3,6
4,5,6,12
3,7,10

$108

Coach Pants 07-28-2010 02:46 PM

Wednesday Race 6
$1 pick 4
1,6,8
1,6,9
3,9,11
3,7,10
$81

gales0678 07-28-2010 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 674909)
Hey Gales, how are you? My AVATAR IS THE FACE OF NYRA.
Any tips for me? PM me.

ok

tip #1

Sar r9 play the #5 - always a party

tiggerv 07-28-2010 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 675172)
Late P4 - 4A ticket

4,7,10
1,3,6
4,5,6,12
3,7,10

$108

Do I win a RHT hat?

RockHardTen1985 07-28-2010 10:22 PM

Disgusting day. I go 6/8 within the pick 4's. I hit my single, my 2 races where I only went 2 deep. I get knocked out in races where I went 4,5 deep. Hitting 3/4 in both. First 3 in the first one.

RockHardTen1985 07-29-2010 09:09 AM

Friday, early pick 4 Ticket #3 0/2

5/3,4/all/1,2,3,7,8 $70

Stands in the first 2 legs, I expect the Pletcher drop down to be around 4-5 at post time and crush that group. Made a premature move into contention last time and I thought ran ok. Any other meet this horse would be under 5-1 in a MSW but they spot this one more aggrasive because of Saratoga. R3 sucks, Im going with the drop downs, not much more to say. R4 is ok, not sold on any of the favorites, going 1/2 to start the ticket allows me to hit the all button, really believe any of them can win. R5 is a shitty MSW IMO, not sold at all on 1,2 but I will cover them, dont want to get beat by them if a bomb wins the 4th. My mains would be 3,8. $80 for the late pick 4.

Late pick 4, Ticket #4

1,3,4,6,7,10/1,2,4,5,6,7/2,3/1

tiggerv 07-29-2010 10:11 AM

Early P4

A:5 B:6
A:3,4,6,7 B:5
A:2 B:7
A:1,2,6,7,8 B:3

4A ticket $20

I agree that the Pletcher looks like a standout in the first leg although I'm going to include the Lerman horse on a backup ticket because it looks to me like she might have a win early pedigree and she is going to be a big price. I think the 3rd is open and will even include the Benzel horse on a backup ticket. Good numbers off the layoff and drew GG. Spreading in the 5th. Maidens going 11 furlongs is not in my handicapping wheelhouse.

RockHardTen1985 07-29-2010 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 675437)
Early P4

A:5 B:6
A:3,4,6,7 B:5
A:2,6
A:1,2,6,7,8 B:3

4A ticket $40

I agree that the Pletcher looks like a standout in the first leg although I'm going to include the Lerman horse on a backup ticket because it looks to me like she might have a win early pedigree and she is going to be a big price. I think the 3rd is open and will even include the Benzel horse on a backup ticket. Good numbers off the layoff and drew GG. I thought the 6 was a standout in the 4th but will include the 2 in case the 6 gets burned up in a race with a lot of pace. Spreading in the 5th. Maidens going 11 furlongs is not in my handicapping wheelhouse.

The Benzel was my next horse, my b. I would have included, but then would have been over $150 for both.

knickslions2 07-29-2010 10:26 AM

Friday Early

5
3
all
1,2,6,7,8

$30 ticket

tiggerv 07-29-2010 10:30 AM

FYI the 6 is scratched in the 4th which will really change my ticket.

knickslions2 07-29-2010 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 675442)
FYI the 6 is scratched in the 4th which will really change my ticket.

Good, saves me $5. I have all in this race. Without the 6 now all seems like the right choice

RockHardTen1985 07-29-2010 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 675442)
FYI the 6 is scratched in the 4th which will really change my ticket.

Saves me a few bucks also, but not enough to add Seth.

tiggerv 07-29-2010 10:50 AM

I thought the 6 was the winner. The 2 is a huge underlay but I have to include. Not sure where else to go because I can make a decent case for any of them.

Dahoss 07-29-2010 11:52 AM

Day 2

Early
$3 2,5/3,4/2,4/7 $24
$1 2,5/3,4/3,5/5,6,7 $24
$1 2,5/3,4/2,4/5,6 $16

$64 total


Late
$1 2,4,7,11/1,6,8/2,7,9/1,11 $72
$2 2,7,11/8/2,7/1 $12
$2 7/8/2/1 $2

$86 total

JerseyJ 07-29-2010 12:12 PM

Early:

$1 P4 2,3,5 / 6 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,7 (36)
$1 P4 5 / 3,4,6 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,7 (24)

Late:

$1 P4 1,4,7,10 / 1,6 / 7,9 / 1,5,10,11 (64)
$1 P4 1,4,7,10 / 1,6 / 9 / 1,10,11 (24)

knickslions2 07-29-2010 01:21 PM

Wouldn't mind a long shot here in the 4th:)

MISTERGEE 07-29-2010 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE (Post 675081)
late pic 4

8-10
1-6
5-6-9-12
3-6-7-10

10-6-5-7 PAID $923.50

MISTERGEE 07-29-2010 02:49 PM

just playin the late today

4-7-10
1-6-7
2-7-9
1-5-7

total $81
day 1 bet $136
collect $923.50

knickslions2 07-29-2010 03:07 PM

Fri Late pick 4

5,6,7,11
1,6
2
1,3,5,7,10,11

4x2x1x6=$48

knickslions2 07-29-2010 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 675440)
Friday Early

5
3
all
1,2,6,7,8

$30 ticket

Win $66.50 (could have one this on a dollar ticket)

tiggerv 07-29-2010 03:09 PM

Late P4

A:1,5,11
A:1,7,8 B:4
A:7,8,9 B:2
A:1,3,11 B:5,7

4A ticket $81

knickslions2 07-29-2010 03:13 PM

4 scratched in 7th

Coach Pants 07-29-2010 03:18 PM

Race 7
1,5,6
6,7
2,4,9
3,5

MISTERGEE 07-29-2010 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE (Post 675558)
just playin the late today

4-7-10
1-6-7
2-7-9
1-5-7

total $81
day 1 bet $136
collect $923.50

with scratch now bet $190, collect $923.50


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