Doug, I could not have said it better myself. If they meet in the Pacific Classic and Gio Ponti is in the 6-5 range, my money would be on St. Trinians. Nick just does not appreciate her greatness.

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

As far as my characterization of St. Trinians, that was really more of a compliment than anything else. I thought she ran a terrific race against Z, I've never said anything to the contrary.

The Del Mar Derby that Gio Ponti lost to Madeo in was certainly one of his disappointing efforts, he was 9-10 to win the race. Madeo benefited from an absolutely perfect trip and GP was also victimized by an overconfident ride from Garrett Gomez. I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).

Gio Ponti ran a good race in the Dubai World Cup to finish fourth rallying into that viciously slow pace. His Strub was more of an aberration than anything else because he certainly ran well in the Sir Beaufort and BCC. I mean, Doug, after all, you and I have been told here dozens of times that that was like the greatest Classic field ever.

As far as me including Del Mar, that really was inconsequential. Obviously neither have started at Del Mar so it'd be impossible to determine who has any type of edge there. If St. Trinians were to come out and run a huge race again vs. Zenyatta then clearly you would think that she'd have an edge on Gio Ponti.

The thing to me about St. Trinians is that I don't really see her becoming considerably better at ten furlongs and her likely getting a little weary late. Could there be circumstances that lead to her getting the distance without a problem? Sure, but I would be more inclined to think GP's two best synthetic races are as good, if not better than any of St. Trinians prior races (or 1 and 1) and that he'd have an edge at the distance.

NT

I was mostly just needling you. You typically have a good take but are skilled at spoiling the take with inconsequential silliness.

I had a feeling you were put up to it by a certain numskull.

NT

He had a whole bunch of bad rides/luck as a three year old. Then they took Gomez off and GP started getting good luck, and Ventura (in the race she lost to GP, among others) started getting some of that bad (GG) luck.

You sound like the connections of Tasty Temptation with that comment. After she won her last race, easily handling Milwaukee Appeal, her nemesis of last year, Casse says something to the effect "she better this year" and the owners echoed it. No she's not, dumbasses, she's just not getting that widest no cover move too early move from Husbands -- so far.

I liked him from Day 1 but I still don't think he ran races as a 3YO, even with trouble, that were remotely close to his Man O' War and Arlington Million last year. Sure, the Hill Prince and Va Derby were good races as was the Del Mar Derby, but a wide/uncovered trip in the Man O'War last year didn't adversely impact him at all. I thought he developed with time.

NT

Will Rail Trip jump up on the dirt? Mr. Baffert always says that running on the synth's is like racing with galoshes on. How much can he improve? I'm sure Dicky will change his shoes and give his teeth a polishing.

No doubt he ran some exceptional races as a 4 year old. But when you consider that he also 'should've' won the Del Mar Derby, the Jamaica, and the Holywood Derby, you get a sense of how good a 3 year old he really was.

More importantly, when we consider, in the context of the present discussion, that Gomez cost GP a G1 and a G2 (as a 3 year old) and Ventura at least 2 G1's, you get a sense of how bad that clown really is.

his figures surely will but his ability is not changing. He is talented and figures prominently in any mile race.

It's Ramon, notice how Better Talk Now's career took off when Ramon took over the riding duties over Douglas, Prado, ect...There are times riders get unjust credit for winning rides but in the case of Ramon I truly believe the horse wouldn't have had half the career he had, had Ramon never ridden him.

It's interesting that the great ride Gomez gave him in last year's Manhattan is being casually ignored.

Excellent, thorough analysis.

As is the bad ride Dominguez gave him in this years Manhattan, and he was a jump away from repeating it in the Man of War.

That wasn't a bad ride, the race was paceless, you had a former claimer on an easy lead. Ramon recognized this, rode GP as he was the best horse and won without taking the horse out of his preferred style. This is precisely why I mentioned Better Talk Now, he was the one rider that understood how to get the most out of this horse, I've seen Douglas try to lay BTN closer to the pace and he wasn't as effective. Having Gio Ponti press the leaders or up on the pace would be counter productive to the horse's style.

It was a risky ride. He doesn't need to be that far off the pace. If you're behind Grand Couturier early, you're doing something wrong.

If he had never ridden him before, yes I would agree. I think this was a case of a rider knowing his horse and the turn of foot he had.

Edit- The one thing I hate are riders that panic and improvise during races. Ie. early moves. It is one of Ramon's best qualities as a rider, he's cool as a cucumber and yes at times it may get him into trouble, however more times than not it pays off.

I agree, it was a risky ride. But I don't think it was nearly as bad as some are making it out to be. My take and it's possible I'm way off is Gio Ponti is better when he is allowed to make one sweeping wide run. If you notice, Dominguez had chances to draft up inside of Bearpath, but chose not to. He probably would have liked to get around Midnite Silver also, but he was moving too quick to.

All in all, I thought it was a perfect set up to whatever race they are aiming at, because he only ran for about one furlong.

I had it at 58.5 feet:rolleyes:

Strangling a horse off a 1.18 mile is recognizing the pace? It almost cost him losing to another longshot.

The horse was not strangled, he was rating kindly, please watch the replay. It was also a comfortable win, and it would have been even more decisive had he not run up on Expansion's heels. Watch the end of that race, he was never in trouble or stretched to win.

He didn't strangle him.

WHat movie did you see yesterday? Twilight?

What deserves more notice: going fast in a single lane with stop signs with a ton of traffic or going fast on the auto-bon with 'a lot' of traffic?

I agree that Ramon's ride in this year's Manhattan was in some ways better but Gomez did ride him well last time.

Look, I'm not Gomez's biggest fan, I think he's obviously very good but just haven't seen why some say he is the best, but I think you're a little unfair about his rides on Ventura. If she is as good as many say, her moves wouldn't need pinpoint timing. I think she's just not as good as many believe. A jockey shouldn't be required to make absolutely perfect moves, with a horse that is usually a heavy favorite, in order to win.

Not the case on POLY, where it's not so hard to overcome pace errors. She lost to GP when Gomez was fumbling around with reins rather than just hand riding to the wire. He lost the race at KEE when he moved very prematurely, allowing the winner, who he had passed, to last move him. And he fell asleep in the BC. Honestly, the dude is the best finisher in the game but that's really pretty much the only area where he's better than a whole slew of other jocks.

This was a riding clinic by Dominguez. Dominguez by his riding shows that he has a HIGH LEVEL understanding of setups. (Listening to other jocks speak, as well as witnessing their rides, indicates that they don't). It's common to assume that a horse loose on the lead in very slow fractions just won't come back. This is true when this horse is bid at prematurely. When you try to get a horse like this late turn or early stretch, you'll fail, as, more often than not, this horse will have enough to come back again. We see this countless times in races. Try to get the same horse late stretch, and in most cases you'll succeed. Dominguez showed this, with confidence, last week. Anyone else on GP, panics, rushes him on the turn, and probably has the speed come back again. Dominguez goes by him in a hand ride.

one of your better quotes

Ellis speaks:

http://www.sgvtribune.com/sports/ci_15529225

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...emy&id=5384035

'Ellis wasn't surprised.

"Shocked would be a better word," he said. '

I know how that feels, Ron.:rolleyes:

Like when you kept riding Valdivia last year and he kept blowing races on this horse.

You and the owners might've been clueless to this but justice is served, IMO.

Of course, Ron is 'astute' enough to note the bad ride last out on RT by Bejarano. Can't get any sharper than that.:rolleyes:

And away we go.................

Frankel tried the Valdivia thing in the early 90's. It didn't work out.

Tell me what Valdivia should have done differently in those two races (The Mervyn LeRoy and the Californian). In the first race he got beat, they were trying to teach the horse to rate. They laid 2nd behind Ball Four and they never caught him. In the next race, they obviously couldn't give Ball four too easy of a lead because they were afraid he would go wire-to-wire again. So they laid about a length off him on a moderate pace. They beat him that time but they didn't beat Informed.

I don't know if I'm on record about his trips. You can try a search. The point, however, is that this horse is fast enough to, basically, control ANY route race up to 10F. It took Valdivia until the Gold Cup to get this right (excluding the races where he was beating nothing) -- and he need a 2-1 finish around the track to do it. As soon as he lost with this horse, they should've booted his ass. Not a year later, and, after he'd left for the east coast.

JMO

Your memory isn't very good. He didn't go to the lead in the Gold Cup with Valdivia. Valdivia rode him the same way he rode him in the Mervyn Leroy and the Californian. He was laying 2nd. He was sitting about 3 lengths off Tres Barrachos, who went the half in :47 4/5.

They always knew that the horse could get the lead if they wanted him on the lead. But if you have a horse by Jump Start that is a one-dimensional speed horse, you're going to have a hard time getting 1 1/4 miles against the best horses. They had to teach the horse to rate if he was going to be able win at 1 1/4 miles.

That's not to say that he shouldn't be on the lead if he can get an easy lead in moderate fractions. But the horse needs to be able to rate if another horse is gunning for the lead. In the race this past weekend, Compari was gunning to the lead no matter what. It would have been very foolish for Rail Trip to try to get the lead. They would have ended up going :45 and change and they would have had no shot. What Bejarano should have done was let Compari go but he should have been sitting right off Compari's flank. He should have been a length back, not 4 back when they're going :51. If he was sitting a length back, like he should have been, he would have only ended up only 2 wide on the turn and he would have won.

QR burning up that Bel dirt this morning...








GO BLAME

I heard that Mace Siegel promised Ron that he would still get paid 10% on anything that Rail Trip makes this year. That has to take the sting out a little bit. If Rail Trip wins some big races, at least Ron is still getting paid.

Can anyone confirm this? Link to a story or something?

It was on the Roger Stein radio show today.

As Dahoss said, Ron said it during an interview on the Roger Stein Show today (Sunday). If you want to listen to it, go to www.rogerstein.com. and listen to the 7/18 show. Ron comes on about 20 minutes into the show.

38:18 + - ........."if he stands by his word"