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-   -   7/10 (HOL): Hollywood Gold Cup & Triple Bend H. (G1's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37037)

CSC 07-09-2010 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 667110)
No way, a trainer entering a horse in a GI race is confident about their chances.

That was enlightening.

NT

I've long given up on decipering what trainer's really mean, except I think he likes how RK is doing, he would enter 100 horses if he thought a horse had a chance, and he may or may not be prepping for Delmar.

nomad 07-10-2010 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 666250)
She barely squeaks out a win in the Vanity against a horse who was trounced by males in her previous start and she is supposed to run in the Gold Cup against the best male in California. Makes sense.

you've got to be kidding

Indian Charlie 07-10-2010 01:13 PM

Nomad, these Zenyattards actually believe this stuff that they post here.

They will grasp at any straw to rationalize Zenyattas connections Bullshid.

Port Conway Lane 07-10-2010 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 667381)
Nomad, these Zenyattards actually believe this stuff that they post here.

They will grasp at any straw to rationalize Zenyattas connections Bullshid.

The people who demand that Zenyatta run against Rail Trip believe she is vulnerable and want to see her challenged. I would like to see that too but whining about the fact they didn't enter her doesn't get her in the race.

If she makes it to to Kentucky hopefully she will run against the best field available. Meanwhile she has her hands full with St. Trinians who not only challenged her but tested her.

My point in the post that Nomad brought up is that if you were a trainer of a mare who was all out against a horse who was trounced by second tier males in her previous start why would you enter her against the best male in a race that may not meet the time frame you have laid out.

The decision not to run her in the HGC isn't a popular one among racing fans. Maybe we can lay out her schedule for him and while we're at it do the same for the other top horses in training.

Merlinsky 07-10-2010 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 667437)
The decision not to run her in the HGC isn't a popular one among racing fans. Maybe we can lay out her schedule for him and while we're at it do the same for the other top horses in training.

Now you're talkin'! :D :p

I understand the protectionist attitude even though it irks me. It's been going on for more than just Zenyatta or Rachel, and it's really a tribute to how magnetic and talented they both are that we're griping this loudly. How many owners do the same thing and nobody cares? A trainer will run horses where they can win, and they can get a pat on the back for it. In a situation like this, they get an ear full about how terrible it is that the horse wasn't challenged more.

RolloTomasi 07-10-2010 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 667437)
The people who demand that Zenyatta run against Rail Trip believe she is vulnerable and want to see her challenged.

This is BS. I doubt anyone wants to see Zenyatta run against Rail Trip because she is "vulnerable". That "you just want to see her lose" defense needs to go to the parking lot. People want to see her run against Rail Trip because she's already shown she can go toe-to-toe with top class males.

Now, your point about her maybe not being in top form right now, based on her narrow victory over St. Trinians is well taken, but that doesn't mean that she's not capable of better than that Vanity effort.

In addition, who said St. Trinians showed her best stuff on Big Cap day? Her other races in the U.S. have been outstanding.

Port Conway Lane 07-10-2010 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 667446)
This is BS. I doubt anyone wants to see Zenyatta run against Rail Trip because she is "vulnerable". That "you just want to see her lose" defense needs to go to the parking lot. People want to see her run against Rail Trip because she's already shown she can go toe-to-toe with top class males.

Now, your point about her maybe not being in top form right now, based on her narrow victory over St. Trinians is well taken, but that doesn't mean that she's not capable of better than that Vanity effort.

In addition, who said St. Trinians showed her best stuff on Big Cap day? Her other races in the U.S. have been outstanding.

Well I won't speak for anyone else. I think she would be vulnerable.
I agree that perhaps St. Trinians may not have fired that day so that argument is a bit exaggerated.

You say she ran toe-to-toe with top class males. I agree. However (some of) the same people who pretend they want to see her challenged but really want to see her lose will tell you the group of males she beat were a bunch of bums.

I would have loved to see if she was good enough to beat Rail Trip today. It won't happen so I accept it and move on. If she continues to win up to the BCC then her mystique will be unveiled. But even if she wins that race it won't be good enough because she didn't run against males "more than once."

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 667446)

In addition, who said St. Trinians showed her best stuff on Big Cap day? Her other races in the U.S. have been outstanding.

I must be the only one that thought St Trinians ran really well in the Vanity.

I personally dont think Zenyatta has looked as good as last year, thought given a fall apart pace scenario she could still win any race.

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 06:40 PM

Man Gayago is a nice looking horse, not sure how he runs today but he looks great.

RolloTomasi 07-10-2010 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 667470)
I must be the only one that thought St Trinians ran really well in the Vanity.

I personally dont think Zenyatta has looked as good as last year, thought given a fall apart pace scenario she could still win any race.

St. Trinians effort in the Vanity makes one regret her not having started in the Santa Margarita, not to mention any starts she might have made subsequently had Mike Mitchell not backed off on her following the Big Cap debacle.

Dahoss 07-10-2010 07:54 PM

That was some ride by Bejarano.

RockHardTen1985 07-10-2010 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 667498)
That was some ride by Bejarano.

I thought Richards Kid ran well.

cmorioles 07-10-2010 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 666178)
Yeah, that makes sense, ship a superior dirt horse across the country to run against poly and turf lovers on polyturf. Great plan. As an aside, I don't think Rail Trip is winning that race.

I'm just saying...

Dahoss 07-10-2010 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 667500)
I thought Richards Kid ran well.

I thought they all ran like crap. Zenyatta would have won the race by 5. Instead she's in the barn.

Scav 07-10-2010 08:02 PM

I would love for Drugs to get all crunk on Formulator and look at Ron Ellis 3rd/4th/5th off the layoff. He is a great layoff trainer, but when they get into 'campaigns' they seem to tail off.....

That being said, he probably ran the best today being so wide.

hockey2315 07-10-2010 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 667502)
I'm just saying...

You're not really taking credit for that - are you?

cmorioles 07-10-2010 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 667513)
You're not really taking credit for that - are you?

I said it early in the thread and I was right...he was 2 to 5. Am I supposed to recant?

hockey2315 07-10-2010 08:42 PM

I know you did. . . Congratulations. He also lost about 10 lengths on the winner trip wise who, as far as I can see, you didn't say you liked anywhere.

cmorioles 07-10-2010 08:47 PM

That is fair, but the race is posted on my site as the race of the week. However, I'm not here to advertise so you'll have to take my word for it. Awesome Gem has been consistently faster than Rail Trip.

As for the losing lengths, I think that is a dubious excuse at best given the race set up. Even so, knowing he was being overrated by many, I was pretty sure he would get an overconfident ride.

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 667498)
That was some ride by Bejarano.

Not sure what more he can do, the race was a total waste to judge after the fractions.

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 667524)
That is fair, but the race is posted on my site as the race of the week. However, I'm not here to advertise so you'll have to take my word for it. Awesome Gem has been consistently faster than Rail Trip.

As for the losing lengths, I think that is a dubious excuse at best given the race set up. Even so, knowing he was being overrated by many, I was pretty sure he would get an overconfident ride.

just looked at your figures.......how did you not crush that race?

Dahoss 07-10-2010 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 667525)
Not sure what more he can do, the race was a total waste to judge after the fractions.

Isn't that what bettors do? We judge the race. The pace was a crawl. Somehow Rail trip was farther off than he should have been and uncovered and wide the entire way. He rode the horse like he couldn't lose and he did.

He still should have won, but that was not one of Bejarano's better rides IMO.

Scav 07-10-2010 09:49 PM

Maybe some Monkey Business
 
R3: $81.60
R4: $4.00
R5: $159.20

$63,331 was in the pool, and it only paid $5,500, so 11 tickets.

11 tickets had this thing, that seems high for the way the combo sorted out.

philcski 07-10-2010 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 667542)
R3: $81.60
R4: $4.00
R5: $159.20

$63,331 was in the pool, and it only paid $5,500, so 11 tickets.

11 tickets had this thing, that seems high for the way the combo sorted out.

parlay was $12k for a buck, and honestly the favorite in the middle was probably worth less than $4 in the pick-N pools. All-heavy fave-All is probably a common play in that situation.

Scav 07-10-2010 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 667550)
parlay was $12k for a buck, and honestly the favorite in the middle was probably worth less than $4 in the pick-N pools. All-heavy fave-All is probably a common play in that situation.

It would have been a $70 ticket, I can't see it...And that horse was a firster who obviously figured but I still think it is very light

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 667534)
Isn't that what bettors do? We judge the race. The pace was a crawl. Somehow Rail trip was farther off than he should have been and uncovered and wide the entire way. He rode the horse like he couldn't lose and he did.

He still should have won, but that was not one of Bejarano's better rides IMO.

I think he should have been up near the lead but Bejarano can be kinda cute like that, that was a mistake.

After that though not sure if there was a chance for him to alter the strategy.

I don't think Rail Trip is a true 10f horse, the race did not change my view of that.

Dahoss 07-10-2010 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 667562)
I think he should have been up near the lead but Bejarano can be kinda cute like that, that was a mistake.

So he made a mistake. Good, we agree.

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 667577)
So he made a mistake. Good, we agree.

what did you think of the ride the place horse got in the last race at belmont today? if ya saw it

10 pnt move up 07-10-2010 11:10 PM

So speaking of rides, I thought that was a very crafty ride by Pedroza on EZ Gentlemen in the Triple Bend.

What a decision it has turned out for Zetcher to turn his horses to Baffert.

Dahoss 07-10-2010 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 667590)
what did you think of the ride the place horse got in the last race at belmont today? if ya saw it

Did you watch the head on?

I thought the horse was unlucky to lose. Should have won, but when 2 holes close I'm not sure what else could have been done.

mnmark 07-10-2010 11:31 PM

Rail trip actually had an ok trip and took the lead briefly when Awesome Gem had to duck to the rail and accelarate past Rail Trip. I think Awsome Gem would have still won the race had he got Rail Trips trip. He was just better today.

SCUDSBROTHER 07-10-2010 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 667507)
I would love for Drugs to get all crunk on Formulator and look at Ron Ellis 3rd/4th/5th off the layoff. He is a great layoff trainer, but when they get into 'campaigns' they seem to tail off.....
That being said, he probably ran the best today being so wide.

Considering the fact that he doesn't cheat, he's doing a great job. If it was a level field, his career would have been a lot different.

miraja2 07-11-2010 07:44 AM

The big thing this race pointed out to me is that the sport needs more Awesome Gems.

Some people say that having a horse win the Triple Crown would "save" or "help" horse racing. I say that's nonsense. All that would do is create a superstar horse. Well....the sport has a couple active "superstar" horses and their connections haven't done a damn thing with them in the last 8 months to make this a more interesting sport.

What the sport needs is a bunch of solid, graded-stakes caliber animals like Awesome Gem, where the connections ship all over, take on all comers and put together a career where the horse has faced Midnight Lute, Kip Deville, Curlin, Hard Spun, Global Hunter, Street Sense, Brother Derek, Zenyatta, Heatseeker, Rail Trip, etc.

He loses a lot more than he wins.....and that's okay. At least they aren't scared by shipping him, or by running on a surface or a distance that might not be his absolute best. Last year at this time he was running a game second to Global Hunter in a G1 turf race. Later in the year he bested 10 rivals to win a G2 dirt race. Yesterday he won a G1 race on synthetic. And to top it all off, yesterday was his 11th start in a little over 12 months! What a concept.

johnny pinwheel 07-11-2010 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 667049)
Richard's Kid should be enough to put down the ridiculous hype that is Rail Trip.

i guess you were not here last year...according to some folks rail trip is a monster. once again he got trounced yesterday. hes a useful horse but hes not that good. i think curlin beat awesome gem by about 12 lengths.....lol...when he was only 4....yeah, rail trip is a world beater...lol...lol

CSC 07-11-2010 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 667630)
i guess you were not here last year...according to some folks rail trip is a monster. once again he got trounced yesterday. hes a useful horse but hes not that good. i think curlin beat awesome gem by about 12 lengths.....lol...when he was only 4....yeah, rail trip is a world beater...lol...lol

He never demonstated he would be able to get 1 1/4 or carry 123-124 in his career, that should have been enough to scare some people off, but people always gravitate towards cute numbers, exactly the way they will gravitate towards Quality Road in the Classic. Atleast he ran faster than Zenyatta did last month LOL...I'll say it again, people who use these final raw time comparisions including supposedly some sharp players here should know better, or they should by now.

Indian Charlie 07-11-2010 11:32 AM

It's a good thing for Z fans she stayed in the barn yesterday.

Awesome Gem would have smoked her!

dalakhani 07-11-2010 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 667655)
He never demonstated he would be able to get 1 1/4 or carry 123-124 in his career, that should have been enough to scare some people off, but people always gravitate towards cute numbers, exactly the way they will gravitate towards Quality Road in the Classic. Atleast he ran faster than Zenyatta did last month LOL...I'll say it again, people who use these final raw time comparisions including supposedly some sharp players here should know better, or they should by now.

Rail Trip won this same race last year at 10f. He has won at 121 and 122. In his career, he is now 3-1-1-1 at 10f. Are there any real conclusions to be drawn by this one race other than he isn't invincible?

No disrespect, but this thread was up well before the race yesterday and the only person I saw that posted Rail Trip getting beat was CMorioles.

To me, Rail Trip is still one of the best older horses in the country and if they ship out and he gets a shot on dirt, he will be very dangerous.

dalakhani 07-11-2010 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 667507)
I would love for Drugs to get all crunk on Formulator and look at Ron Ellis 3rd/4th/5th off the layoff. He is a great layoff trainer, but when they get into 'campaigns' they seem to tail off.....

That being said, he probably ran the best today being so wide.

Rail Trip ran 8 times between Nov 7 2008 until July 11 2009 with no more than a 45 day break between starts. He brought him back for the Pacific classic obviously fearing a bounce from the big Gold Cup performance last year and then put him away for the year.

These days, thats a pretty busy schedule for a horse especially one that has finished out of the exacta one time in his career and that was in a blanket finish where he lost by a length.

Criticism of Ellis is justified in that he might be a little conservative with some of these horses. At the same time, he is more than just a layoff trainer as you suggest.

CSC 07-11-2010 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 667685)
Rail Trip won this same race last year at 10f. He has won at 121 and 122. In his career, he is now 3-1-1-1 at 10f. Are there any real conclusions to be drawn by this one race other than he isn't invincible?

No disrespect, but this thread was up well before the race yesterday and the only person I saw that posted Rail Trip getting beat was CMorioles.

To me, Rail Trip is still one of the best older horses in the country and if they ship out and he gets a shot on dirt, he will be very dangerous.

I never liked him as much as others, I was one of his more vocal detractors here, it's not about tooting one's horn but I did say Richard's Kid should be enough to put down the ridiculous hype that is Rail Trip in this thread. Wrong horse right idea, maybe at Delmar.

dalakhani 07-11-2010 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 667696)
I never liked him as much as others, I was one of his more vocal detractors here, it's not about tooting one's horn but I did say Richard's Kid should be enough to put down the ridiculous hype that is Rail Trip in this thread. Wrong horse right idea, maybe at Delmar.

You did say that. I just think that too much is being made of it. He is a nice horse and I don't see anything out there that is much better.


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