The win pool is only 25% of the MUTUEL pool? At what track?!? And you're calling ME out on this??? 50% is probably conservative at a track like PID where the place and show pools are nonexistent! Here is the chart for the last race at PID: http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8

"Sophisticated money" has no bearing on the analysis. The money in the pools is what it is. Where it comes from, either in location or knowledge, is irrelevant once the gates open and the prices are finalized.

Our WPS are 33%...which makes 25% a generous estimate. I will look into what they are at smaller tracks. Perhaps you are right but I'm dubious.

However, the second paragraph just shows you aren't thinking this through.

It's not a real life example, per se, and this is a very " real life " game.

Did anyone notice all the brilliantly sophisticated money in the pool for the 10th at Churchill Downs yesterday?

Those razor sharpies made Mine That Bird a 5/2 favorite in a 14 horse field... off a layoff and on turf.

What's crazy about PID .. is how much the Euro's seem to love it. On Betfair, I've seen extremely shockingly high liquidty on both sides of each horse - for each horse in the race... in certain races where form is established.

You are not following what I'm saying.

The MUTUEL pool total, the number I quoted, is the sum of WPS- you are thinking of a percentage of TOTAL handle (which as you stated at NYRA and most other places is about 33% of total handle). WPS wagering % of the MUTUEL pool is not distributed 33% Win, 33% Place, 33% Show. It's much closer to 50% Win, 25% Place, 25% Show (if not a higher bias towards Win in smaller jurisdictions) barring a bridgejumper getting involved.

My point stands that a $40 bet does not impact the pool materially enough to move a +20% ROI to negative.

If I'm not thinking this through enough... explain to me how "sophisticated money" has any bearing on a finalized pool with final prices. If higher quality bettors starting punting PID, yes it likely be tougher to win there. But they aren't, and they won't be. And that's assuming that everybody that bets PID is a complete moron who can barely read a form.

July 1st:

Last race at Hollywood Park - field of 11 maidens

WPS pool: 134K
Exacta pool: 68K
Tri Pool: 61K

Last race Presque Isle - field of 9 maidens

WPS pool: 41K
Exacta pool: 32K
Tri Pool: 25K

PID dropped Sunday to run Tuesdays .. because they get totally lost in the shuffle on the weekends. While sh!tty, they aren't exactly handling like a dog track or harness track.

Stop making sense.

I don't disagree with them about this being the wrong place for serious money either ... in fact, I totally agree ... this place is a total sh!t sandwhich if it isn't for the fact that track biases continue on for extended periods of time and don't get addressed... and aren't exactly being as identified and expolited by bettors as they might be somewhere else.

However - for people to think that it's like so much easier to show a paper profit at small tracks ... that's total nonsense. It's laughable.

try handicapping 500 straight races at Pinnacle - try a thousand at Fairmount Park .. try 750 at River Downs ... I would be pumped to bet against myself or anyone else at even money.

Git back on ur jug and let the slicksters tell u the news.

How is this relevant to picking the winner of the race?

I want to hear more about how you're tearing it up and setting the world on fire at MTH.

So you're not restricting yourself to gloating and stating the obvious?

Those posts about my penis have long since been deleated.

Let's get back to how you're tearing it up and setting the world on fire at MTH.

What's been your big edge?

Living in a big city?

I'm now officially confused....are you saying there was $14K in the WPS? If that's the case, of course over 50% ( could be 70 even ) is in the win pool. In that case I misunderstood.

As for you refusing to think through an example on paper and a real time example, which is what I am talking about, I don't know how to help you any further. You are stuck on adamantly defending a position that isn't being discussed. This pool is NOT efficient....that is the point. And, yes, you can still bet tens and 20s and not significantly change that, but good luck making money with that strategy. The only way you can make real money, yes...even over time, is if there is enough money in the pool to profit acceptably over time. For that to happen, there will be more sophisticated money in the pool, which forgetting about making your " job " harder, will significantly lower the imaginary ROI we are discussing.

It's ironic that I'm kicking ass at a track that I didn't plan on playing because I'm just against speed biased surfaces. While the main track hasn't been as consistently biased as past years, there are still days where the speed just hasn't come back. It is what it is.

The only thing cooler than reading Light from Pace Advantage with BTW's login is reading TFM's take on how biased tracks are a good thing for bettors to avoid.

The Internet will never not be cool.

If you look around this board, or PA or Paceandcap, you'll find a whole bunch of evidence that my opinion is about as strong as anyone's. YET, it's like you're in the know and you compare me to an idiot I could out-handicap in my dreams. Which pretty much captures the ethos of what happens here (and elsewhere).

The problem with betting biased tracks as opposed to fair tracks is you need to do extra work to identify the bias. Sometimes this involves nothing more than looking at the day's charts. Others, it takes quite a bit of work. The point, however, is that someone who, basically, takes 5 minutes, if that much, to handicap a race really doesn't have the time to be investigating biases. Thus, I prefer fair tracks. I'm crushing MTH and I'm dong very well at DEL. So I can play biases with the best of them. It's just that I'd prefer not to. The reason I include these tracks is because they're really the only alternatives and I need about 10 tracks to play over the course of a given week.

Hey Chubby,

You do realize that BindTortureWound posts here right?


To make a statement even suggesting that he isn't by far the greatest to ever live at every single facet of the game ever known - it is a brazen display of disrespect.


You gloated at the very start of this thread....


Everyone knows that if BindTortureWound was seriously handicapping Monmouth his win perentage would be 82% and ROI would be +272%. (more than QUADRUPLE his money)


Know your roll chubby ... and just like with everyone else, your roll is to bask in the glory of the presence of the greatest.

Mods at boards all over (except the lady at DMTC I suppose) bow down to his every last request ... and so should you if you know what's good for you.

Isn't that where you do your best cappin?

Oh, that's right, damnit, you don't read my posts :(

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

I do think that you are giving the general public more credit than they deserve by saying because a pool is larger it means the money is smarter. I think it is to some extent- but certainly not all the time or to the magnitude that you seem to credit them. Drugs' example of Mine that Bird yesterday at 5/2 against a salty 14 horse field on a surface he's not bred for, hadn't run on, and hadn't even expected to be in off a long layoff. Or I Want Revenge at 6/5 off a serious injury and lengthy layoff against a good group in the Suburban.

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

"roll"? Doubtful this is meant as a pun on your part. Just another example or your illiteracy. Remember a couple of years ago when you had that site with SAR picks and I sent you an email with a few 'spelling' corrections? Now, that was/would've been embarrassing huh? (Well, not exactly as embarrassing as going 0 for the first couple of weeks, with very limited plays, which you actually did.:rolleyes: )

I realize that if you had to admit that I'm your equal as a handicapper, you'd probably never make it out of the house -- this, even, after your ass kissers worked on you for a month.

Which means that you probably haven't had the nerve to look at my two $41 dollar bombs last week and my $66 dollar bomb late May.

Right about now I figure you're dialing for some fast food as you reach for your meds.

Deluded post of the year.

So now you're backtracking? CJ, you're better than this. I know that.

No, exotics are not part of the mutuel pool size listing. Again, here's the chart from the last race run at PID. http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8 The WPS ("mutuel") pool was $14,219; EX $10,273; TRI $8,660; SUP $2,402 (all pre-takeout numbers of course.)

Can someone have a +20% over a whole meet on 4-1 shots? Sure. Bet 1,000 races at 4-1 and win 240 of them. Someone can have a +20% ROI on 1/5 shots... if they run the table.

One thing that should be noted is horses that are long odds at tracks like PID are huge underlays. Many of them have virtually no chance of winning... are absolute talentless cripples... yet even the token $300 total bet on them causes them to go off at 20-1.

;)

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.


I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.



Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

If these horses are breaking from the rail post and have speed ... they aren't entirely hopeless.









One of my favorite races of the meet so far was this one ....

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...00526&raceNo=3

A 66/1 shot winner goes wire-to-wire .. and a 40/1 shot 2nd place finisher is 2nd at every call. They are basically isolated in front of the rest of the field the whole way and no one even threatens them at any point.

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

They put them on the website sometimes - and other times they don't. They are always in the paper.

You have to remember - there are like 40 people betting the horses ontrack the average night ... and they have options between my stuff in the paper - or the two TV commentators .. they even had a free tipsheet for a couple years made by one of the on-air guys. He'd pick entirely different horses in the tipsheet than he'd pick on-air .. but he'd say his on-air picks were through handicapping and his tip sheet picks were through his special points system formula .. it was just odd how they NEVER landed on the same top pick.

It's a situation where I could spend 10 seconds a race and handicap a whole card in less than 2 minutes and no one would care. I'd still get paid and I still couldn't do any worse than the track people .. I just have way too much pride and way too much ego to do that.

This is pretty close to Iavarone...no wonder the horse is a total loser without an extreme track bias.

That horse is nothing like iavarone. He paid his bill once when he won........that makes them different.

One of the textbook days was June 17th.

On the 8 race card, 6 horses breaking from post position #1 won - and in the 2 races where post #1 didn't win, it was a wire-to-wire winner in each. Post 1 completed the exacta in one instance, and post 2 completed the exacta in the other instance.

The 6 winners breaking from post #1 paid: $22.40, $19.20, $10.00, $7.20, $7.80 and $6.00

The first two that paid the big prices both won wire-to-wire starting from post 1.

Any bettor who argues biases are a bad thing ... they're crazy as far as I'm concerned.

Nice clip. Is Indian Charlie supposed to be the guy next to me?

A piece of $hi+ without balls named Iavarone.
Fits well.

ouch.