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-   -   Monmouth Handle Doubles! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36238)

dalakhani 05-22-2010 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 650334)
Assume they made $4 or $5 million. Subtract that from the money the state supposedly lost on the tracks and the total is now 25% lower. We hear that racing is fighting for its survival in NJ yet a entity that supposedly only made a few million dollars statewide last year is going to pony up $16 million for another better parlor? Ok.

Its the jobs Chuck. NJ is opening up betting parlors for the jobs.

Cannon Shell 05-22-2010 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 650340)
Its the jobs Chuck. NJ is opening up betting parlors for the jobs.

Sure all 17 of them

slotdirt 05-22-2010 11:14 PM

Tomorrow's card also looks very bettable. That Spend A Buck Stakes has a bevy of options, and who doesn't love $82k NJ-bred races? $75k maidens? Monmouth is so onto something.

mnmark 05-22-2010 11:56 PM

Increasing the handle at ANY track has been extremely challenging for the last two plus years. The majority of tracks have seen a decline. For Monmouth to double there handle that they had last year in this marketpalce is unheard of.

Today was a huge success for Monmouth. They are either on something or onto something and I think they are onto something brilliant with what they have done to this meet.

100 k plus carryover on the .50 cent pick five another brilliant idea.

Coach Pants 05-23-2010 12:00 AM

Boutique meets can work if you force the slot states that had horrendous racing before the slots out of the game.

Indiana and West Virginia should stick to John Mellencamp concerts and jug-blowing.

philcski 05-23-2010 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 650366)
Boutique meets can work if you force the slot states that had horrendous racing before the slots out of the game.

Indiana and West Virginia should stick to John Mellencamp concerts and jug-blowing.

LOL

Holland Hacker 05-23-2010 07:37 AM

I know an increase of 100% in handle and attendence is great news. Being the "doubting Thomas" that I am about NJ racing as I have seen it decline steadily since the NJSEA took over from the Hess Family. My question is how much did the handle increase on a per race basis? How many races were run last year on opening day versus this year. Lets not forget that Monmouth will have significantly fewer racing days while offering nearly the same amount of races. I would think the critical metric is handle per race rather than handle per day.

On the bright side I'm sure it is up but is it truly up 100%?

johnny pinwheel 05-23-2010 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerS (Post 650296)
Doubled it from what?

The primary reason Monmouth is on the brink of extinction is because of low handle in past years

Just has to be in context

If Washington Nationals increase attendance is their past low attendance not relevant?

ok. i'll put it into your narrow little context. the handle doubled and 8,000 more people showed up. this was not good enough. the crowd should of tripled and the handle quadrupled....yeah, thats more of a realistic view. without that, the media should of reported that opening day at monmouth was a failure......there , does that make you happy. while you are at it, stick a fork in monmouth...its over, people ONLY bet 4.5 million more this year on opening day! i better go jump off a bridge.

Danzig 05-23-2010 07:51 AM

it's only one day. i'd wait a while to see how it all unfolds before declaring it a huge success.

Kasept 05-23-2010 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker (Post 650395)
I know an increase of 100% in handle and attendence is great news. Being the "doubting Thomas" that I am about NJ racing as I have seen it decline steadily since the NJSEA took over from the Hess Family. My question is how much did the handle increase on a per race basis? How many races were run last year on opening day versus this year. Lets not forget that Monmouth will have significantly fewer racing days while offering nearly the same amount of races. I would think the critical metric is handle per race rather than handle per day.

On the bright side I'm sure it is up but is it truly up 100%?

2009: 11 races, 90 runners, $4,279,438 ($389k/race; $47.5k/horse)
2010: 13 races, 126 runners, $9,357,444 ($720k/race; $74.2k/horse)

2Hot4TV 05-23-2010 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 650398)
it's only one day. i'd wait a while to see how it all unfolds before declaring it a huge success.

and see what it does to the other tracks across the nation.

johnny pinwheel 05-23-2010 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 650398)
it's only one day. i'd wait a while to see how it all unfolds before declaring it a huge success.

ok. i'm sorry....it was a minor success. whats the difference? success is success vs. they did not change anything and had the same results as last years opening day....then the same people would be saying "monmouth is going under"........the glass is always half empty...a great way to look at life....sorry for being an optimist. oh yeah, it was only one day look at the fields and the players involved....the writing is on the wall. they won't come back next weekend or the one after either when the money starts getting bigger as the summer goes on. it won't take much more and they will surpass last year in no time....won't work, move along, nothing to see here

Coach Pants 05-23-2010 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 650401)
2009: 11 races, 90 runners, $4,279,438 ($389k/race; $47.5k/horse)
2010: 13 races, 126 runners, $9,357,444 ($720k/race; $74.2k/horse)

Oh so it really didn't double. HUGE FAILURE. They should quit while they are ahead.

2+2 = 5

Travis Stone 05-23-2010 09:36 AM

Opening Day was virtually guaranteed a success giving the hype and buzz surrounding the meet, the pent-up demand of local racing fans who are used to seeing a live race a few weeks earlier and nice weather as well.

What a lot of folks seem to be missing, however, is that this whole plan is about streamlining for an entire summer, not just one day. Day #1 is a good start, but now as the meet wears-on, and the novelty wears-off, what happens? Then we'll know how well this consolidation move worked. It's early to declare it a rousing success, but early indications are certainly positive.

One day a meet does not make.

philcski 05-23-2010 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 650401)
2009: 11 races, 90 runners, $4,279,438 ($389k/race; $47.5k/horse)
2010: 13 races, 126 runners, $9,357,444 ($720k/race; $74.2k/horse)

This is the important metric IMO. Race/race comparison.

randallscott35 05-23-2010 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 650401)
2009: 11 races, 90 runners, $4,279,438 ($389k/race; $47.5k/horse)
2010: 13 races, 126 runners, $9,357,444 ($720k/race; $74.2k/horse)

:$::$::$::$:

herkhorse 05-23-2010 10:31 AM

Nice. A few more days like that and they could afford to fix their website.

Patrick333 05-23-2010 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerS (Post 650451)
Not sure understand all the emotion about this. Steven Crist has pointed out Monmouth going to need handle of $10 million a day to make the numbers work.

I guess that means he hates Monmouth too

Hang with it Homer. You are not alone.

Danzig 05-23-2010 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 650421)
ok. i'm sorry....it was a minor success. whats the difference? success is success vs. they did not change anything and had the same results as last years opening day....then the same people would be saying "monmouth is going under"........the glass is always half empty...a great way to look at life....sorry for being an optimist. oh yeah, it was only one day look at the fields and the players involved....the writing is on the wall. they won't come back next weekend or the one after either when the money starts getting bigger as the summer goes on. it won't take much more and they will surpass last year in no time....won't work, move along, nothing to see here


well, sorry. just stating my opinion. didn't mean to step on any toes. and i'm a half full person as well, but this industry needs far more than one big day at monmouth.

the_fat_man 05-23-2010 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerS (Post 650451)
Not sure understand all the emotion about this. Steven Crist has pointed out Monmouth going to need handle of $10 million a day to make the numbers work.

I guess that means he hates Monmouth too

This entire operation is puzzling to me. The objective, apparently is to INCREASE HANDLE. The method utilized is INCREASING purses. The immediate effect is:

1) MORE MONEY for TRAINERS
2) MORE MONEY for TRAINERS
3) MORE MONEY for JOCKEYS

Now, correct me if I'm wrong but most gamblers are probably playing from their homes. So, good quality horses and top jocks are not exactly going to be enough of an enticement to get them out of their homes and over to MTH. And, it follows, neither will bigger purses. I mean, the idea is to find advantages in one's plays and it doesn't necessarily follow that there will be more of them in better quality and probably better matched fields.

So, maybe the way to really increase handle is by giving some to the GAMBLER. ****, everyone else seems to be getting theirs. So how about they cut those purses a bit and then cut takeout a bit. Or, maybe, they go the way of WO and KEE and DMR and get TRAKUS so their data can be as accurate relatively as their fields are good.

This is going to fail. The dirt (and turf) course is NOT a FAIR one. Only the DRF/BEYER old schoolers who thrive on the AQU INNER and the present GP meet will be eating this **** up. Everyone else will be at WO and CRC and other fair tracks.

Coach Pants 05-23-2010 11:38 AM


10 pnt move up 05-23-2010 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 650425)
Day #1 is a good start, but now as the meet wears-on, and the novelty wears-off, what happens?

You comment makes no sense from a horse players perspective, the ones that wager the real money, not the 2 dollar fan who shows up on opening day. How do big fields, lots of multi race sequences with good value wear off after opening day?

Or am I missing what the big players are looking for? I think on a day by day comparison it might be bigger than double the handle, opening days tend to produces bigger numbers then drop off dramatically, I would imagine we dont see the same percentage drop say for next fridays card when compared to last years same day.

philcski 05-23-2010 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 650458)
This entire operation is puzzling to me. The objective, apparently is to INCREASE HANDLE. The method utilized is INCREASING purses. The immediate effect is:

1) MORE MONEY for TRAINERS
2) MORE MONEY for TRAINERS
3) MORE MONEY for JOCKEYS

Now, correct me if I'm wrong but most gamblers are probably playing from their homes. So, good quality horses and top jocks are not exactly going to be enough of an enticement to get them out of their homes and over to MTH. And, it follows, neither will bigger purses. I mean, the idea is to find advantages in one's plays and it doesn't necessarily follow that there will be more of them in better quality and probably better matched fields.

So, maybe the way to really increase handle is by giving some to the GAMBLER. ****, everyone else seems to be getting theirs. So how about they cut those purses a bit and then cut takeout a bit. Or, maybe, they go the way of WO and KEE and DMR and get TRAKUS so their data can be as accurate relatively as their fields are good.

This is going to fail. The dirt (and turf) course is NOT a FAIR one. Only the DRF/BEYER old schoolers who thrive on the AQU INNER and the present GP meet will be eating this **** up. Everyone else will be at WO and CRC and other fair tracks.

Really?!?
This is about as poor a statement as I've ever heard, especially coming from someone who doesn't like to play chalk.

As for the "fair track" thing... here's a riddle for you:
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 6th, 1st, 2nd (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 11th
1st, 7th (T), 1st, 7th (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 1st (T)

Cannon Shell 05-23-2010 08:37 PM

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...h-ibboyee-wins

freddymo 05-23-2010 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 650639)

Crist did his best to cool the heat. I guess he doesn't believe the state(NJ) will A. get another deal done with AC and B. Is willing to invest somemore money into something that was ultra successful even if it wasnt 100% self funding. I think he is dead wrong. NYRA has zero chance of having VLT's on line before 1/1/11 hence they will need 40 plus mil to get thru '10 and '11. The handle at SPA is going to be down a min of 15% and the NYC OTB situation will be festering in courts and Albany forever.. It's a grim immediate future for NYRA and that sux. BUT when you work for state and the state sux you suck

10 pnt move up 05-24-2010 12:00 AM

I dont see how you could be a serious player and NOT be playing this meet. What would be the reason not to play?

Kasept 05-24-2010 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 650680)
I dont see how you could be a serious player and NOT be playing this meet. What would be the reason not to play?

There isn't any reason not to play, but there is reason to observe and tread lightly... With a rather bizarre mix of outfits melding into the long-established Oceanport crowd, until there is some established form and trends there will be some completely chaotic results that will be undecipherable based on PP's.

NTamm1215 05-24-2010 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 650728)
There isn't any reason not to play, but there is reason to observe and tread lightly... With a rather bizarre mix of outfits melding into the long-established Oceanport crowd, until there is some established form and trends there will be some completely chaotic results that will be undecipherable based on PP's.

People should be playing names. Who wouldn't be forced to bet a horse whose dam was Hitched to a Star with Dick Vitale as a part owner? That had to be one of the stronger angles on DP the Facilitator in the nightcap yesterday.

NT

jms62 05-24-2010 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 650737)
People should be playing names. Who wouldn't be forced to bet a horse whose dam was Hitched to a Star with Dick Vitale as a part owner? That had to be one of the stronger angles on DP the Facilitator in the nightcap yesterday.

NT

Lot's of regulars simply play whatever Bravo is riding. They must be estatic with the odds they are getting on some of these horses.

philcski 05-24-2010 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 650728)
There isn't any reason not to play, but there is reason to observe and tread lightly... With a rather bizarre mix of outfits melding into the long-established Oceanport crowd, until there is some established form and trends there will be some completely chaotic results that will be undecipherable based on PP's.

Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

blackthroatedwind 05-24-2010 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 650803)
Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

It's probably a little of both....though I tend to side with you. I like the increased possibility of chaos. It probably lends itself better to the Monmouth situation where the amount of work necessary to really handicap the card is so burdensome that a more scattered approach probably increases your chances of getting lucky per se.

The shorter priced horses are probably a little less likely to win and the tails are a little fatter.

the_fat_man 05-24-2010 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 650504)
Really?!?
This is about as poor a statement as I've ever heard, especially coming from someone who doesn't like to play chalk.

As for the "fair track" thing... here's a riddle for you:
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 6th, 1st, 2nd (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 11th
1st, 7th (T), 1st, 7th (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 1st (T)

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

philcski 05-24-2010 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 650806)
It's probably a little of both....though I tend to side with you. I like the increased possibility of chaos. It probably lends itself better to the Monmouth situation where the amount of work necessary to really handicap the card is so burdensome that a more scattered approach probably increases your chances of getting lucky per se.

The shorter priced horses are probably a little less likely to win and the tails are a little fatter.

Agree with this 100%. Variance is definitely higher- and some races aren't a whole lot of fun, like the Jersey Bred races which have a large majority of the field coming in off a layoff, but say a $10k claimer is a LOT more fun when you have shippers from all over. It's a lot more work, but generally worth the effort. Some may feel different, and I get that approach too (knowing the population inside and out.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 650810)
Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

OK, sure. But you didn't answer my riddle, which as I knew already you don't listen to anyone so it's not worth trying anyways. For what it's worth, the correct answer was the supposed "fair" track you brought up, Calder, had 7 dirt races on Saturday- 4 were won by the leader at the 1/2 mile call, 2 by the 2nd place horse, and 1 from 7th. 83% speed. How AQU inner runners perform have NO relevance on the track. There were winners shipping from PHA, MTH, GP, MED, KEE, TAM, AQU, AQUI, SAR, CD, DEL, and BEL on the opening weekend.

Despite what the FAT CHARTS wish for- a track "favoring" closers doesn't exist on a regular basis. End of story.

jms62 05-25-2010 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 650810)
Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

Dude for someone as smart as you I can't believe you are not tuned into any changes at Monmouth that may influence the front end bias. Information that is in the public domain. I'll leave it at that since information is the key in this game.

joeydb 05-25-2010 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 650803)
Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

I think what you want is enough information or insight to determine if there is a good overlay, but as Steve indicates, maybe you won't have enough PP information to have a clear opinion.

It's more like "There's no way in Hell that this horse should be 10-1." But as far as thinking he's the most likely winner -- might not have that insight.

richard burch 05-26-2010 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerS (Post 650277)
I have gone to both tracks probably 100 times each in my life

I know them both well

All i am saying is three times as many people went to Monmouth and they barely beat Belmont handle

And thats not unusual. Monmouth regularly outdraws Belmont on the weekends in regard to on track attendance

Monmouth is going to need people betting to make this work. Going to the track is not enough they need people betting

Monmouth has always been able to get people to go to the track. Its a beautiful track with a real hard core crowd.

This is about their survival

Can already see from the responses here that it strikes a nerve with people. Not sure why

Not insulting anyone, not belittling Monmouth or what they are doing.

I want this to work.

If it doesnt there is no more Monmouth


People sometimes can't accept that anyone in New Jersey can do something right.

I plan on visiting M.P. at least 10 times this year....maybe even this week.

richard burch 05-26-2010 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerS (Post 651311)
Are you talking about me? If so you are missing what I am getting at

I like what they have done. Like it

And I plan on betting more this year at Monmouth

But I dont believe they will generate the necessarily handle to make this a long term viable stand alone solution. Slots is going to need to be part of it. Cant sustain the business model the numbers dont work.

PS: Probably going this weekend myself.

PPS: Have been going to Monmouth since 1982

The slots are coming most likely to the meadowlands as part of a revitilazation plan. A.C. will have to suck it up and move on.


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