Zero cause Caracortada is gonna win the Preakness. :p

Free money in the pools with that play.

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

Wholeheartedly agree. I expect him to win as well. Was able to win with a 1 in thoros, barely breaking his 2 yr old top. He is unlikely to go backwards in this race and who exactly is going to move forwards and beat him?

I don't know. Is the field for the Preakness set?

SS hasn't really run a 'huge' race and he got a very, very nice trip in the Derby. Not only did he save ground but he was nicely positioned just behind the fast pace. I suppose if he gets an absolutely perfect trip again he wins. If he's asked to do some of his own running, however, he hasn't shown, to this point, except for the CD race, that he can do it. Combine this with low odds and 'no thanks'.

Maybe it's all the sex on the beach (that's distracting you)... not sure but come on... over a year later. Can't we get his name right?

I think this is the first time I've ever agreed with you.

Am I the only person who thinks Super Saver runs his best races, by far, at CD?

I think he's a terrible bet in the Preakness.

Did you see the PPs for the Preakness? Not much there.

I think Super Saver can run outside of CD. He won his second career race, 1 mile at Belmont in slop, on 9/09 by 7 lenghts.

I think Super Saver is live in the Preakness. He has speed, not a plodder.
The Belmont is another story though.

Yep.

Schoolyard Dreams, for instance. He's not much.

How'd he do in the Wood and the TB race?

Key word, slop, exactly what he caught at CD in the Derby...

Frankly Super Saver is a terrible bet in the Preakness. On a fast track he's no better than Dublin and frankly Dublin will get back to winning when the owners realize he's a closing sprinter, but to be honest any one of a host of runners can challenge Super Saver on a fast track in the Preakness.

I can't blame folks who want to look at Schoolyard Dreams in this race - if he goes. He was on more than even terms with Super Saver at Tampa this winter.

I see you didn't take me seriously when I mentioned I liked Hurricane Ike last weekend, there are quite a few things to like about this horse.

You are resting your hopes on Schoolyard Dreams? Tampa was months ago, new ballgame now.

That's kind of a tough comparison to make when Super Saver was making his first start of 2010.

NT

Well, it's not like his second start (or third really, if we're being fair) were that much better.

i agree with you too. theres not much to beat with ice box out.(it was the only horse that was even close to him). people are talking about "perfect" trip, well, thats two races in a row he got a pefect trip. the horse has tactical speed so he will get a good trip most likely. the only thing holding me back will be the odds. i'm hoping people like some of the other ones and they will because i've heard a million excuses already. if this horse is anywhere near 5-2, i will be all over him.

What? So Super Saver's Ark Derby and Ky Derby were not much better than his Tampa Derby? I couldn't possibly agree with that.

The Tampa Derby proved to be what many thought it was. It was a trio of average horses slugging it out down the stretch with one decent horse who needed a race. He moved forward in the Ark Derby then even more so in the Ky Derby.

I'm not saying Super Saver is some rising star sent to rescue thoroughbred racing from anonymity and there are going to be plenty of knocks on him in Baltimore, but I think it's pretty clear that he's developing and I think the quick comeback may actually serve him well.

NT

I don't completely disagree with you - I think he's by far the most logical winner next weekend in Baltimore. That being said, I don't think either of his last two races were exactly something to write home about, even factoring in that one of those races ended up with him winning the Derby. Just saying I can't blame anybody who is going to want to take a stab at beating him in the Preakness.

I'm moving my number up to 25%. EOM. :D

I put his chances of winning next Saturday at 40%.... and not knowing how the Belmont field will look, figure he's 25-30% in there.... 10-12% overall.

I don't see how the Preakness field is shaping-up to be any more difficult than the Derby field. He's only run three times this year, so he's relatively fresh considering, and I think he's shown he's immune to insane pace scenarios... he can rate close, or a bit farther off.

Come on, Nick. You can do better than that. He got the best of it in the TBD and hung like a rat in the Ark Derby. Then he gets just about the best possible setup in the Derby. He may win the Preakness but he's not doing it without the best trip in the race. Chalk that needs the best trip is not exactly the best way to make money.

I can't dispute anything that you said, in fact, you illustrated exactly why I didn't like him in the Derby.

The thing that I feel like I've realized is that this is a crop of 3YOs replete with horses who can't win unless a lot (if not everything) goes their way. The only horse who ran a very good race against the race flow in a prep was Rule. Unfortunately, he's off the reservation.

NT

Not at all man.

Just pointing out that one mediocre horse was pretty much on even terms with SS, and then came back and got his ass kicked badly.

In fact, in the Wood, the winner might never run again and the third place horse came back lame in his next start.

I think the Wood exposed the TBD race as being even weaker than everyone originally thought.

Or Esken's performance was overrated?

I don't like him at all and at his projected odds he would be overbet, this even considering he was probably the most underlaid horse in the Derby, frankly I don't like any from the Derby race to come out and be a good bet. If Dublin got a new rider and trainer he might be more attractive, thus I am going to the new shooters list, and right at the top of that list is Hurricane Ike, he's improving at the right time and he's got an extra week to get ready for this. To me his 101 is alot more legitimate than the 104 that SS got in the Derby. I'll make my bed with Hurricane Ike in the Preakness.

No thanks at 9.5 furlongs. HI is not my kind of horse at all.

That's the 10K question, but why not? He looked like he was galloping out great in the derby trial, I'm more concerned that the last time a derby trial winner ran well in the Preak it was in the 90's with Alydeed.

His performances, while still the most impressive in this crop, have yeah, been overrated. At least to me anyways.

Eskendreya aside, Schoolyard Dreams still lost to Jackson Bend AND Awesome Act!

The Wood has made somewhat of a resurgence in the past decade as a good Derby prep, but man, 2010 was dreadful.

Macho Again

There are no Big Brown's this Preakness.

I never said I was smart and old age has taken it's toll.

I would think Calvin might have a better shot than his horse does. I can see a KD, Preakness double, but the Crown is gonna be a reach. He is riding horse named Readys Rocket in the first on Saturday at Churchill. Should be a super value on his first return from a long layoff. Not that I'm sayin. I'm just sayin.;)

Greek up for SS....opened at 7.25-1 and now 6.85-1.

Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).




5Dimes has

Yes TC +650
No TC -1175


So, either the "NO -700" is generous at Bodog or the "YES +650" is generous at 5Dimes; OR the real odds are about +675.

I haven't gone over the Preakness PP's enough to venture an opinion on fair odds for that race or the TC, but I'm guessing it's the -700 for the "NO TC" at BoDog that's generous.

--Dunbar

Let's do the math, Slim x none =:zz:

Of course.

Right final result....brain fart in typing it.

Congrats on a nice return for Ready's Rocket. Just keeps on churning out wins at CD.