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Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

CAA didn't look so hot in bracket busters. MVC looked pretty darn good.

Northern Iowa did. I don't know that anyone else in that conference is any good. CAA stunk it up for sure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Northern Iowa did. I don't know that anyone else in that conference is any good. CAA stunk it up for sure.

What is your opinion of expanding the tournament to 96?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What is your opinion of expanding the tournament to 96?

there are usually about 8 teams that don't belong now.:zz:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What is your opinion of expanding the tournament to 96?

http://countdowntomarch.blogspot.com...seriously.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Northern Iowa did. I don't know that anyone else in that conference is any good. CAA stunk it up for sure.

They were 7-3 overall and I think they were 8-2 against the number. Northern Iowa is clearly the class but the conference as a whole once again showed how tough they can be.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

They were 7-3 overall and I think they were 8-2 against the number. Northern Iowa is clearly the class but the conference as a whole once again showed how tough they can be.

Who beat anybody that was worth a crap except UNI? Plus they got a bunch of home games. They're still a one-bid league if UNI wins Arch Madness.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

http://countdowntomarch.blogspot.com...seriously.html

"All this rewarding of mediocrity would feed more into the ridiculousness of the BCS football people who defend their asinine system by saying that playoffs render the regular season meaningless. I hate those idiots and so do you."

LOL.
Well, I am one of those idiots....(sort of).

I pretty much agree with everything in there, and I do think expanding the tournament would damage the regular season in college basketball. If a team can't muster a winning record in their conference I don't think they really deserve to get in....and expanding the tournament would mean that a lot of those teams would get in.

For that (and all the other reasons listed) I too think expanding the tournament would be a terrible idea.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

http://countdowntomarch.blogspot.com...seriously.html

:tro:

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

CAA didn't look so hot in bracket busters. MVC looked pretty darn good.

I'm officially with Glockner on this one. Forget the Bracket Busters. Teams like William & Mary had absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose in the current format when they get matched up with a good but looked at disdainfully Iona team. Until they include the Virginia/VT/Ole Miss/Cincinnati middling BCS teams it is the BracketEliminators. At least ODU had a chance to play a great opponent and a return game next year, and while they didn't play well they are still firmly in the tournament. What sucks is every year previous the CAA had done really well in the BB's but this year was a total debacle when a strong performance could have vaulted the conference to 3 bids.

2/26 update:

Quote:

Conferences, followed by predicted # of bids, assuming no outlying AQ.

Big XII (7)
In: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri
Work to Do: Oklahoma State (RPI: 31)
Not much change in the reliable Big XII. Still six locks, Texas Tech is officially out of the chase, and Oklahoma State, while closer, still must play itself in. The Cowboys got a win they had to have at home against Baylor on Saturday, but were unable to pick one up at Texas last night. Beating the Longhorns on the road probably would've gotten them in, but OSU has two more chances to pick up that "over the top" win. The Pokes host Kansas on Saturday, and Stillwater should be rocking for that one. I smell upset. After that they're at Texas A&M on Wednesday before entertaining Nebraska to finish the regular season. Overall, considering how soft the bubble still is, OSU has a better than average shot of getting in. The Cowboys are 3-5 against the RPI top 50 and 4-7 against the top 100, without a significant nonconference win or specifically bad loss.

Big East (8)
In: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh
Work to Do: Marquette (54), Connecticut (40), Louisville (42), Seton Hall (52), Cincinnati (59), South Florida (69), Notre Dame (72)
The Big East looks pretty solid for eight bids, but it may be difficult for the conference to get more than that, especially if one of its top three bubble teams nosedives. Marquette moves to the edge of the 'in' category by winning a pair of OT games on the road to move its league record to 9-6. The Golden Eagles have now won seven of their last eight. They're not a lock yet, but probably only need one more win to get there. They finish at Seton Hall, vs. Louisville and vs. Notre Dame and are 3-7 against the RPI top 50 with a good neutral court win over Xavier in the nonconference. UConn obviously helped itself tremendously by beating West Virginia, which sets up a biggie on Saturday at home against Louisville. Both '09 1-seeds are likely one win away from locking up a bid. Louisville needs it more, as the Cards finish at Marquette and home against Syracuse, while UConn only has to navigate roadies at Notre Dame and South Florida. Speaking of those two, the Bulls' home loss to St. John's and a 25-point shellacking at Villanova effectively ended their Tournament hopes, while Notre Dame crushed Pitt at home to get back in the conversation. The irish have nothing resembling a good nonconference win and are only 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 6-8 against the top 100, and on top of that, they're only 2-7 in road/neutral games, so their hopes are still slim. However, they're 7-8 in conference and they finish at Georgetown, home against UConn and at Marquette, so if they can find a way to win two of those three, they'll be in business. The Hall stays in the discussion by virtue of a 7-8 league record and three RPI top 50 wins. The Pirates face a must-win game at home Sunday against Marquette. Cincinnati's in trouble following the home loss to Marquette. The Bearcats still have a 7-8 league record, but they finish with a brutal final three games, at West Virginia, vs. Villanova and at Georgetown. At 4-6 against the RPI top 50, with two big nonconference wins, if Cinci somehow found a way to win two of their last three, it would be in good shape. But that seems like a tall order. Even with a fifth RPI top 50 win, the Bearcats might not be popular because of how poor they've been in finishing the season.

ACC (6)
In: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Florida State
Work to Do: Clemson (36), Virginia Tech (48), Georgia Tech (33)
Some tough losses for the ACC bubble teams this week, and Virginia Tech shouldn't be counting its chickens quite yet, as a blowout loss at Boston College has set the Hokies back. VT is still in decent shape and finishes home against Maryland and NC State before a roadie at Georgia Tech. Normally one win would be enough to get a team like VT in, but the pathetic nonconference resume may force them to win two to lock up a bid. The Hokies are 2-3 against the RPI top 50 and 5-4 against the top 100. Clemson took a loss at Maryland to drop to 3-6 against the RPI top 50, but the Tigers finish at Florida State, vs. Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest, so there are ample opportunities to improve the resume. One more win probably gets Clemson in what with the neutral court win over Butler boosting the nonconference profile. The Yellow Jackets lost in brutal fashion at Maryland, a loss that dropped them to 6-7 in conference. A 4-6 record against the RPI top 50 and a win over Duke keeps them alive. They finish vs. Boston College, at Clemson and vs. Virginia Tech and probably need two of the three to feel confident.

SEC (4)
In: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
Work to Do: Florida (45)
The SEC looks pretty solid for four bids. Florida got a game it had to have on Tuesday against Tennessee, and one more win should be enough to get the Gators into the tourney, especially if that win is in their final two games. This is no given, however. They finish at Georgia, not an easy place to play, home against Vanderbilt, then at Kentucky. UF is 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and 7-7 against the top 100.

Big Ten (5)
In: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Work to Do: Illinois (64), Minnesota (81)
Illinois got a win it needed at Michigan and is on the precipice of getting a bid. The Illini are 4-6 against the RPI top 50 and 6-8 against the top 100 and finish vs. Minnesota, at Ohio State and vs. Wisconsin. Minnesota missed a big chance to boost its profile by losing a heartbreaker at home to Purdue last night. That dropped the Gophers to 2-6 against the RPI top 50, so they probably need to win out (at Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Iowa) and get a few games in the Big Ten tourney to get a bid. Such is life on the bubble. One point can put you in or out of the Dance.

Atlantic 10 (4)
In: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Work to Do: Rhode Island (28), Dayton (43), Charlotte (55), Saint Louis (90)
Speaking of tough losses for fringe bubble candidates, SLU lost at home to Xavier by two last night, setting its late bubble push back a few steps. The Billikens have two more chances against the conference elite though, so they're not dead yet. After hosting Duquesne on Saturday, they get Temple at home before going to Dayton. With a shaky at best computer profile, they probably need to win out to get in. They weren't alone in tough loss territory though, as Dayton dropped one on the road at Duquesne on Sunday before falling at Temple last night. I made this point to myself after that game though, as the announcers started to throw dirt on Dayton's at-large chances after the Duquesne game. The Flyers haven't gotten blown out once this year. They've been competitive in every single game, and they've played the 34th best schedule in the country. Their most lopsided loss was 83-75 against Villanova on a neutral court. They've only got one loss outside the RPI top 100 and they're 3-6 against the RPI top 100. Obviously the 7-6 league record hurts, but if they can win out (vs. Massachusetts, at Richmond, vs. Saint Louis) and get a game in the A-10 tourney, I think they'll be OK. Rhode Island goes to St. Bonaventure on Saturday before hosting what could be a bubble elimination game against Charlotte on Wednesday. URI finishes up at UMass. The 49ers have to win that and probably beat George Washington on the road and Richmond at home to lock up a bid.

Mountain West (3)
In: BYU, New Mexico
Work to Do: UNLV, San Diego State
UNLV appears in good shape to lock up a bid at 4-4 against the RPI top 50 with games against MWC bottomfeeders Air Force and Wyoming remaining. If the Rebs can take both of those, they'll be 11-5 in conference with a solid nonconference profile, probably enough to not need anything in the MWC tourney. San Diego State missed out on a big opportunity at BYU last night, and has more left to do than UNLV. The Aztecs finish home against Colorado State and at Air Force, so they too should be able to get to 11-5 in league, but they're only 2-5 against the RPI top 50, so they'll need to get something done in the conference tourney.

Other Conferences (2)
In: Butler, Gonzaga
Work to Do: Northern Iowa, Utah State, UTEP, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, UAB, Memphis, Marshall, California, VCU, Cornell
The non-BCS conferences took a hit this week, with Siena, Northeastern and William & Mary removing themselves from the conversation. By my current super-awesome predictions, assuming no outlying AQs in the listed conferences, I've got 30 at-larges taken, leaving four for this amorphous pool of mid-majors. That 30 can and will shrink and grow, which is what makes this so fun. Northern Iowa went a long way in locking up a bid by smothering Old Dominion without Jordan Egleseder, then took a big step back by losing to the dreadful Aces of Evansville. The Panthers are 2-0 against the RPI top 50 and 9-1 against the top 100, a pretty damn good output. However, UNI also has three losses outside of the top 100. Overall the Panthers are in good shape. They host Illinois State tomorrow, another quality conference foe. If the Panthers win that, then get by Southern Illinois or Drake in the first round of Arch Madness, they're in for sure. If they lose one of those two, it's less certain. If they lose both, they're in trouble despite all they've done. Utah State probably needs to at least get to the WAC tournament final to lock up a bid. Four Conference USA teams have decent to outside chances, and almost all of them play each other in the league's final week. UTEP has won 11 straight and has put itself in striking range of a bid. The Miners are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50 and 5-4 against the top 100, and after hosting a terrible Rice team, they finish with two bigguns. They visit Marshall on Tuesday before finishing at home against UAB. Winning its last three would get UTEP in, and two out of three keeps the Miners alive. UAB has something UTEP doesn't - a big nonconference win (home over Butler), but the Blazers fell at home to UTEP and risk getting swept if they can't come up with a win in El Paso. Memphis faces a near must-win at UAB on Wednesday, while Marshall, which has won five in a row, needs to take its last three (vs. UCF, vs. UTEP, at SMU) to be seriously considered. Old Dominion and VCU are the last two standing in the CAA, and the two meet at Old Dominion tomorrow in their conference finales. VCU needs the win more, but Old Dominion already dropped one to the Rams and probably shouldn't get swept by a conference rival in the wake of the Monarchs' uninspired performance at Northern Iowa. ODU is only 1-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-7 against the top 100, so I don't know that one big win at Georgetown is going to save the Monarchs should they get swept by VCU and lose in the CAA tourney. VCU will be hurt by its four losses against RPI 100+ teams, but the Rams are 3-0 against the RPI top 50 and 6-3 against the top 100. A road win tomorrow at Old Dominion would be huge. St. Mary's probably has to get to its conference tournament final to feel confident. The Gaels are 2-3 against the RPI top 50, 5-5 against the top 100. Cal is just 1-4 against the RPI top 50, but three of those losses were at Kansas, at New Mexico and against Syracuse at the Garden. The Golden Bears are 5-6 against the top 100, but have lost three against teams outside the top 100. Cornell's at-large chances remain shaky, but the Big Red has a chance to essentially play itself into the Tournament tonight at home against Princeton. A win would likely put Cornell two games ahead of Harvard and 2 1/2 in front of Princeton with just three to play. Cornell would also have the head-to-head tiebreaker with both schools, so it would be just about impossible for either team to catch the defending champs.

dala, another low-major team that could take down a 3 or 4-seed is Murray State. But that's if the Racers can get by Morehead State in the OVC tourney. Both of those teams are quality.

gettin ready to chill in my easy chair now watching what could be the best game in a while -

Nova vs Orange

watchin cuse / nova also... gotta luv college bb

Tarheels win!!!!

Will this win today at Wake get us in Joey?? :D

Joey great call on Ok State. You have UTEP as a bubble team but the coaches poll currently has them ranked 25th and probably moving up after Texas lost again. I understand that the polls arent as important as other factors but has a team ever been ranked in the top 25 this late in the season and not made it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Good question, my guess would be probably, but more likely because of a total collapse in the final two weeks. UTEP is very close to pocketing a bid, probably one win away, but their lack of quality wins and poor SOS keeps them out of lock territory for the moment IMO. They can remove all doubt by beating UAB in El Paso next Saturday.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

dala, another low-major team that could take down a 3 or 4-seed is Murray State. But that's if the Racers can get by Morehead State in the OVC tourney. Both of those teams are quality.

Thanks for the heads up. How about them Cowboys? I saw you picked the upset. I have been following them a good part of the year and they are on the way back.

Duke/Md on wednesday. I think Duke is way too big for maryland. Its a shame about the terps. For as great of a job Gary Williams does coaching them he does an equally bad job recruiting...and its gotten really bad since they won the title.

Great blog by the way. I really enjoy it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Like I wrote on the Twitter, OSU needs Matt Pilgrim to play well and stay on the floor. Anderson's gonna get his 20 a game, but if Pilgrim is playing 30+ minutes, they'll be a tough out.

Vasquez is carrying Maryland right now and he's doing a terrific job of it. Duke's better than the Terps but funny things happen in that building. And you're right about GW's recruiting. Other than Mychal Parker he doesn't have much coming in next season. Supposedly there'll be a lot of top juniors and sophomores at the game Wednesday, so that combined with the 21-point loss being fresh in their minds, I expect a competitive game at least.

Kansas State/Kansas should be good. KSU has a chance to sneak into a 1-seed if Duke falls to Maryland. Thanks for the blog shoutout.

ESPN has to start using flex scheduling the last two weeks of the season. How dumb do they look now with #5 Kansas State vs. #2 Kansas being on ESPN360 (online and regional only) Wednesday? At least flex it to ESPNU, damn son.

Will AZ be lower than a 14 seed after they win the Pac 10 tourney?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Will AZ be lower than a 14 seed after they win the Pac 10 tourney?

probably a 13 seed if they win (and they can, the Pac 10 is so dreadful)

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

probably a 13 seed if they win (and they can, the Pac 10 is so dreadful)

Have you ever seen a year where two top tier schools like UCLA and UNC just fall off the map...overnight?

Just looking at UTEP's resume again, and as much as I like the Miners, if they're in (which they should be) no matter what, then Utah State should be a lock too if they beat New Mexico State. The difference between the WAC and C-USA is negligible, and USU has more quality wins than UTEP. I think people (including me) are just defaulting to name recognition in thinking that dominating C-USA is more important than dominating the WAC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I like Utah State's resume better. Much better OOC schedule, better marquee win (BYU vs. UAB). Similar everywhere else. Both teams should be in, regardless, if they are regular season champions. In fact I'd say UNI, USU, UTEP, and ODU are all pretty safe barring a dreadful flameout in their conference tournaments. You just can't tell me that these conference champs of good mid majors should be excluded for a Notre Dame or Virginia Tech this year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree, but if you look at the Bracket Project, UTEP is at the top of the 10-seeds and Utah State is at the bottom of the 11-seeds, which leads one to believe that the people analyzing these things would have Utah State out should they bust in the WAC tourney. I think they're wrong and the Aggies become a lock if they beat NMSU on Saturday. I think both are solidly in, as is UNI. Old Dominion is the only one of the four that I think will totally screw itself by losing early in the conference tourney.

Louisville s.hit the bed tonight.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Louisville s.hit the bed tonight.

Their resume really is lacking. 1-7 vs. the RPI top 50, 8-10 vs. the top 100. If they beat Syracuse again they're gonna get in, but if not they'll two Big East tourney wins IMO.

Bracket as of 3/3:
S-CURVE SEED TEAM
1 1 Syracuse
64 16 Lehigh
65 16 Jackson State
32 8 California
33 9 UNLV
17 5 Tennessee
48 12 San Diego State
16 4 Baylor
49 13 Dayton
8 2 Villanova
57 15 Coastal Carolina
25 7 Texas
40 10 Old Dominion
9 3 Ohio State
56 14 Sam Houston State
24 6 Xavier
41 11 Siena
4 1 Duke
61 16 UC Santa Barbara
29 8 Clemson
36 9 Utah State
20 5 Butler
45 12 Virginia Tech
13 4 Temple
52 13 Murray State
5 2 Kansas State
60 15 Stony Brook
28 7 Wake Forest
37 10 UTEP
12 3 Vanderbilt
53 14 Oakland
21 6 Texas A&M
44 11 Saint Mary's College
3 1 Kentucky
62 16 Belmont
31 8 Missouri
34 9 Florida State
19 5 BYU
46 12 Florida
14 4 Wisconsin
51 13 Notre Dame
7 2 New Mexico
58 15 Morgan State
27 7 Richmond
38 10 Connecticut
11 3 Pittsburgh
54 14 Wofford
22 6 Maryland
43 11 UAB
2 1 Kansas
63 16 Quinnipiac
30 8 Oklahoma State
35 9 Marquette
18 5 Michigan State
47 12 Louisville
15 4 Georgetown
50 13 Kent State
6 2 Purdue
59 15 Troy
26 7 Northern Iowa
39 10 Georgia Tech
10 3 West Virginia
55 14 Weber State
23 6 Gonzaga
42 11 Cornell

Some brutal teams on the cut line. Hoping for some top mid-major seeds to lose in their conference tournament finals to exclude these teams. While 96 teams sounds fun, some really undeserving teams would get in in years like this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

The BCS which almost everyone agrees should expand to a true playoff absolutely refuses to, The NCAA tourney which almost everyone agrees is close to perfect is almost assuredly going to expand. That is the NCAA in a nutshell.

I think this is the most important game for the Duke team this year hands down. If they can win at Maryland, with confidence, then I do believe they will carry that thru the NC game this weekend and thru the month of March.

I gotta believe this game sets the tone for the ACC and NCAA tourney for the Devils.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

A week ago, UConn was in, Notre Dame was toast. Now the roles have pretty much reversed. That's why March kicks ass the way it is and why expansion is a bad idea. 90% of these exciting bubble determining games would mean nothing.

Big last few minutes here in Wake/FSU.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Really? I hate duke but what I don't see how its that important for them either way. Its senior night and if you have never been to comcast (or cole field house before it) it is as crazy a crowd as you will see. Im sure the voting committee would forgive a loss to the second place team in the conference in one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Besides that, I dont think Duke has a problem with "confidence". Why should they? They beat Maryland by over 20 at home and should they lose this game it would hardly shake their confidence and beating them again would hardly make them more confident.

Sure there is something at stake but i dont think this is that important.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

You nailed it, Duke was set up for a loss and played better than I thought it would. The bottom line is you can still pencil the Dookies in for a Sweet 16 loss, except this time you can actually make some $$$ betting against them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The scheyer kid has turned into a decent player but I don't know what people are smoking when they are talking acc player of the year or that he will be a pro player of any account. I guess he could be a spot up three shooter somewhere but he is about as slow and unathletic as it gets.

I agree about Duke. The ACC is about to get 5-7 teams in the tournament and not one of them has a snowball's chance for the title. This MD team and any of the teams other than duke are all very capable of getting bounced in the first round.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

ND certainly seems to be coming on. And the big played last night. This team might make the tournament yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Nolan Smith and Singler are better weapons but Scheyer has really improved his game off the bounce. He's obviously too slow to be a viable NBA prospect but he's a solid college player.

3/4 update:

Quote:

Yes, the bubble's shrinking, folks, but a lot more teams are playing themselves out than in. Certain teams with bad losses, losing streaks and low RPI profiles are still alive because of other viable candidates tripping over themselves. Here's the final pre-Championship Week take on who'll be occupying the 34 at-large spots. As usual the number in parentheses is the projected no. of bids, assuming no outlying AQs. Conferences are listed in order of RPI rank, projected multi-bid conferences only listed.

UPDATE: I can't figure out why for the life of me, but my RPI numbers from this post were slightly screwed up at first publish. I've fixed them.

Big XII (7)
LOCKS: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
WORK TO DO: Nobody
Bless you, Big XII. We can chalk up those six at-larges and move on. Less typing for me.

Big East (8)
LOCKS: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette
WORK TO DO: Notre Dame (RPI: 61), Louisville (36), Connecticut (49), Seton Hall (63)
For all the annual blather of the Big East getting double-digit bids, it looks like a distinct possibility that the superconferece will only get seven this season. The bubble officially bids adieu to Cincinnati and South Florida. Marquette became the sixth Big East team to lock up a bid, throttling Louisville on Tuesday, largely damaging the Cardinals' prospects as well. Notre Dame has won three straight and suddenly looks like the Big East's strongest bubble tenant. The Irish are now 4-3 against the RPI top 50 and 9-7 against the top 100, but they still have some issues to overcome. Namely three losses outside the top 100 and a 3-6 road/neutral record. That's why a win at Marquette on Saturday is the only thing that would lock up a bid for ND before the Big East tourney. Otherwise they're going to need at least one win at MSG, possibly two. Louisville took a big step toward a bid by winning at UConn, but the Cards looked very bad at Marquette on Tuesday. The worst UL can do in conference is 10-8, which is normally good enough in the Big East, but I'm not so sure in this case. Louisville is just 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and 7-9 against the top 100. Obviously the win at Syracuse holds weight, but the Cardinals don't have much else to show. That's why a second win over 'Cuse in the Freedom Hall closer on Saturday would be huge. Despite the lousy record against the elites, two wins over the Orange and 11-7 in league would probably be enough to get the 'ville in. If UL loses Saturday though, it probably needs at least two wins in the Big East tourney to be a serious at-large contender. UConn, seemingly in a week ago, is suddenly in trouble after losses to Louisville and Notre Dame. The Huskies face a must-win game on Saturday at South Florida, which has been reduced to the spoiler role. Without that game, I can't see them getting in without winning the Big East tourney. Even with a win in Tampa, UConn needs at least two wins at The Garden, possibly three, to cancel out an 8-10 league record. The Huskies are 3-8 against the RPI top 50 and 8-11 against the top 100 with two poor losses at Michigan and at Providence. Seton Hall is probably on its way to the NIT after losing a must-win at home to Marquette on Sunday. The Pirates remain in the conversation only because they can still get to .500 in league (at Rutgers, at Providence), but they'll need that, plus a few games in the city to be seriously considered.

ACC (6)
LOCKS: Duke, Maryland, Clemson
WORK TO DO: Florida State (38), Wake Forest (34), Virginia Tech (53), Georgia Tech (37)
The ACC, looking like a shoe-in for seven bids a few weeks ago, may now get as little as five. A sixth is in reach, but the seven ship may have sailed with Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all fading down the stretch. Clemson locked up a bid by handling GT at home on Wednesday. Florida State is close to doing the same and probably only needs one more win to become a lock. The Seminoles finish the season at Miami (FL) on Saturday. Wake Forest isn't looking too strong, having lost four straight to fall to 8-7 in conference. The Deacs are still buoyed by a 5-4 record against the RPI top 50, but the committee doesn't like teams that aren't playing well down the stretch, and it's been a while since Wake has beaten anybody of note. With that said, a win at home against Clemson on Sunday probably is still enough to put WF back in, but winning an ACC tournament game in addition would be advisable. Meanwhile, the two Techs square off in Atlanta in a veritable bubble elimination game on Saturday. Obviously both teams could still make the Dance with an ACC tourney run, but the winner of Saturday's game will be able to breathe much easier than the loser heading into Greensboro. A win would give VT a 10-6 league record, which might be enough to offset a cupcake-laden nonconference profile, just two RPI top 50 wins and just six top 100 wins. A loss would be devastating to the Hokies' tournament chances. GT has a slightly better nonconference profile, but needs this game to get to .500 in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are 4-7 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100, a respectable output. But they're also just 3-8 in road/neutrals, so they'll probably need a game in Greensboro in addition to Saturday's game to feel good.

Big Ten (5)
LOCKS: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
WORK TO DO: Illinois (72)
Is there another conference with as much separation between the elite and the hoi polloi? The Big Eleven might get four 1-4 seeds and nobody else in the tournament. The bubble says au revoir to Minnesota after an embarrassing 28-point shellacking at the hands of Michigan. I'm more sold on Illinois than most people. I get that the home loss to Minnesota was bad, but the Illini have a huge game against Wisconsin in Champaign on Saturday, and if they can get that, I think they're a lock. They'd have a sweep over Wisconsin and an 11-7 league record. Illinois is 4-7 against the RPI top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100. It has quality nonconference wins at Clemson and vs. Vanderbilt. The Illini must overcome three 101+ losses, but they have a solid 6-7 road/neutral record. Without a win over Wisconsin, things get a little dicey, but UI will face one of the top four in the conference in the Big Ten tourney quarters next Friday, so it'll immediately have another chance for a quality win. Basically I think Illinois would have to lose its next two games to be toast.

SEC (4)
LOCKS: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WORK TO DO: Florida (52), Mississippi (56)
Florida took a major step back by losing at Georgia and then falling at home to Vandy. Unless Florida can win at Kentucky on Sunday, which would lock up a bid for UF, the Gators will be just 9-7 in conference. Florida is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and 7-9 against the top 100, and the Gators boast two good nonconference wins at Michigan State and vs. Florida State. UF also has head-to-head wins over both Mississippi and Mississippi State and a strong 7-4 record in road/neutrals. However, because of how the SEC tournament bracket (and the SEC) is structured, without a win at Kentucky, the Gators might need to win three games in the SEC tourney before they can get another quality win. Mississippi State was primed to make another run at the bubble, but a loss at Auburn (the Bulldogs' fifth 101+ loss) last night quashed that. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has snuck back onto the bubble, more because of other teams' slip-ups than due to its own play. The Rebels are clinging to two huge nonconference wins (vs. Kansas State, at UTEP) as their at-large case. They're 2-5 against the RPI top 50, but their pitiful 4-8 mark against the top 100 makes it tough to make a case for them. Mississippi obviously has to win its last two regular season games (vs. LSU, at Arkansas), but if that gets done, the Rebs will have a quick shot at quality wins in the SEC tourney. They'll likely face Tennessee in the quarters (in Nashville) next Friday, and if they get past that, they'll probably get Kentucky. They might need to win both of those to stand a good chance of getting a bid.

Mountain West (3)
LOCKS: New Mexico, BYU
WORK TO DO: UNLV (43), San Diego State (33)
UNLV likely only has to handle MWC doormat Wyoming at home to cinch up a bid. The Runnin' Rebels are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 and 7-4 against the top 100, with a decent nonconference win vs. Louisville and a very good 9-4 record in road/neutrals. They do have to overcome a sweep by Utah, but they're in very good shape. San Diego State needs a run to the MWC tourney final, and even that might not be enough to get the Aztecs in. They're just 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100 and they have a bad loss at Wyoming to live down.

Atlantic 10 (4)
LOCKS: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
WORK TO DO: Rhode Island (29), Dayton (41), Saint Louis (93)
Charlotte's gone, Saint Louis is on life support, and Dayton and Rhode Island probably have work to do in the A-10 tourney. Sorry A-10 fans, I definitely jinxed this conference by saying it might get six bids. It's still a very good league, especially at the top. Rhode Island jumped back into the conversation by crushing Charlotte last night, but the Rams still haven't played well the last few weeks. They're still in decent shape if they can win at UMass on Saturday, then get a game, maybe two, in the A-10 tourney. URI is only 2-4 against the RPI top 50, but it's 8-6 against the top 100 and the Rams sport a 8-5 road/neutral record. Dayton has a big one at Richmond tonight, and with only a 3-6 record against the RPI top 50, the Flyers could really use a win. They're also only 5-8 against the top 100 with a bad loss (at St. Joseph's) to hurdle. I made the point last week that Dayton was very competitive against a tough nonconference schedule, and that should help UD. If the Flyers lose at Richmond, they'll have to beat Saint Louis and win 2-3 games in the A-10 tourney to have a good shot. Saint Louis lost a near must-win game against Temple last night and the Billikens are now on the outside looking in. SLU stays alive because of three top 50 wins and a 10-5 league record. However, a tough roadie at Dayton on Saturday looms, and if the Bills lose that one, they're toast. A win there and a trip to the A-10 final would probably get SLU in. Anything less would probably leave the Billikens short.

Conference USA (2)
LOCKS: UTEP
WORK TO DO: UAB (42), Memphis (51)
Marshall lost a game it couldn't afford to, at home against UTEP on Tuesday, so it goes bye-bye. Despite a dearth of quality wins, the Miners will be just about impossible to leave out with 14-15 league wins. Memphis got a huge win at UAB last night to complete a season sweep, which hurts the Blazers, badly. UAB is just 1-2 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100 and now faces a must-win game at UTEP on Saturday to remain in the discussion. If Memphis can beat Tulsa at home Saturday, the Tigers will be 13-3 in league, a respectable record. They're 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 6-5 against the top 100, but they've got three ugly losses (at UMass, at SMU, at Houston) to overcome, so they probably need to get to the C-USA title game, but if they can do that, they'll be in.

Other Conferences
LOCKS: Butler, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa
WORK TO DO: Utah State (32), St. Mary's (45), California (22), Old Dominion (39), VCU (62)
Northern Iowa's done enough to lock up a bid regardless of what happens at Arch Madness. I probably should've had the Panthers in last week, but that loss at Evansville clouded my judgment. I think a win over New Mexico State on Saturday puts Utah State in the tournament regardless of what happens in the WAC tourney. St. Mary's needs a trip to the WCC final and at least a competitive effort against Gonzaga. Doug Gottlieb just said on ESPN that the Pac-10 will get two bids even if Cal wins the conference tourney, and I think he's nuts. Cal is the conference's only at-large hope, and the Bears probably only get in with a trip to the Pac-10 final. I know the RPI is high, he meat just isn't there on their resume, they're 0-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-6 against the top 100 with three losses outside the top 100. Contrary to what some think, I maintain that Old Dominion needs at least one win in the CAA tournament, maybe two, to lock up a bid. The Monarchs are 1-4 against the RPI top 50 and 7-7 against the top 100. VCU needs a trip to the CAA final, even then an at-large is a longshot, but the Rams stay in the discussion because of a 3-1 record against the RPI top 50 and a 6-4 record against the top 100. However, VCU also has losses at George Mason, Drexel and Western Michigan to distance itself from.

So assuming no outlying AQs (UTEP, Butler, Gonzaga, UNI all win their tourneys), we've got 21 bids all locked up. That leaves a maximum of 13 bids for a bubble contingent that currently numbers 23. If we let the doorstep teams (Florida State, UNLV, Utah State) in, that leaves 10 bids for 20 teams. And we know damn well that there'll be outlying AQs, so that number of 10 will shrink in the next week.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

dala, another low-major team that could take down a 3 or 4-seed is Murray State. But that's if the Racers can get by Morehead State in the OVC tourney. Both of those teams are quality.

Big game tonight Ateam. Murray St is -4. I think I Moorehead with the points. What do you think?

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Big game tonight Ateam. Murray St is -4. I think I Moorehead with the points. What do you think?

Gun to my head I'd take Murray State -4 even though Morehead looked way better in the semis. Tony Easley and Ivan Aska can neutralize Faried. Kent State smothered a decent Akron team on the road last night. They're another capable 13-seed upsetter.

That kid from West Virginia who just had that BRAINFART at the end of regulation of the Nova game should not be allowed to touch another basketball with his real fingers again in his life. Prosthetics? Maybe.