I'm even more sure you are wrong.

My recollection was that he bowed sometime after the Santa Anita Derby.

Remember that when him and Best Pal were racing against each other, Best Pal was a far more experienced and seasoned horse. In my eyes, there was a large gap in talent between those two.

And yeah, Dinard was nowhere near the same horse after the injury. It's pretty well established that horses are usually diminished after that injury, which is a testament to how good that horse would have been.

To recap, Dinard didn't even debut until opening day of SA. He won by 5 in 109.3.

Wheeled back in just two weeks in the Los Feliz, he wins by 6 in 135.3 over the VERY nice Olympio and Formal Dinner!

Back a month later, he drops back down to 7f in the San Vicente and loses by a nose to Olympio, while 9 back in third was Scan. Time? 121.2

Three weeks later is the San Rafael. Back again to a mile, he gets a super hard fought win over the vastly underrated Apollo (by a head) with Best Pal also in the photo for third. Eight back to fourth. Time was 135.4. To this day, one of the best races I've ever seen and one of my favorites as well.

Next up is the Santa Anita Derby. Another win over Best Pal in 148 flat, this time by a half length.

At this point, he's got 4 wins and a tough beat second in 5 starts. This horse was the real deal and almost certainly was better than anything in the East that year.

After the injury he made only three starts, all in the Strub series, and that was it. He never won, though he did get a 117 BSF in his last start for running second. That horse was simply great, no ifs ands or buts about it.

By the way, your comparison with horses later that decade is irrelevant. If anything, Dinard was right in the middle of a streak where the Santa Anita Derby winner was seemingly cursed.

After Sunday Silence won in 89:

1990 Mister Frisky. Almost dies during the triple crown from a throat abscess and never regained his winning ways.

1991 Dinard. See above.

1992 AP Indy. Scratched out of the Ky Derby on that very morning.

1993 Personal Hope. Never really heard from ever again.

1994 Brocco. Couldn't overcome Randy Winnick. Did he ever win again?

1995 Larry the Legend. Won the SA Derby and then didn't run again for like 15 months.

1996 was Cavonnier. I know he barely lost the derby, but wasn't he hurt shortly after that?

In that span, I'd say Dinard and Indy were just about as close to locks as you can have in that race, had they not been hurt.

No way man. Icon Project would have been destroyed by Zaftig.

The others, well, that's all a tossup to me.

How about this year's Kentucky Derby with Quality Road and I Want Revenge in the field?

Or this year's Travers with Mine that Bird and Rachel Alexandra joining Summer Bird and Quality Road?

I got one for you... The way the Derby was run, and with those 2 big defections, and with the way Rachel won the Oaks, I dont see how she wouldn't have won the Derby for fun, she would have had a huge lead while MTB was making his move, she would have CRUSHED THEM.
You know Im not the biggest Rachel fan, BUT ITS TRUE. She might have won the Triple Crown... She clearly would have won the first 2 legs, especially with QR and IWR out.

This thread started as a really good thread and turning into guys just whining about missing live races. The initial post was a really good concept.

I wish I had seen my dog as a puppy. I got her when she was 2 1/2 and now she is 9 and still beautiful.

You still neglect Hansel who almost certainly ran as fast, if not faster than any of Dinard's races in his track record performance in the Jim Beam.

Further, let's look at strict form with regards to Hansel:

Jim Beam: dusts Apollo by open lengths
Preakness: dusts Best Pal and Olympio by open lengths

That alone is enough to suggest that Hansel would have been a good matchup with Dinard (assuming Dinard was the West's best), and thus negates any suggestion that Dinard was some sort of "lock" in the Derby.

Dinard strained some portion of his suspensory ligament roughly 10 days before the Kentucky Derby (3 weeks since the SA Derby) after breezing 6f in 1:18+ at CD.

As for Best Pal, perhaps more seasoned, but he was making a somewhat belated 3yo debut (March) and had just 2 preps leading to the Derby. You could argue that Dinard had the advantage with all the recent racing (which may have ultimately been his undoing).

As for the SA Derby history, not sure where you going with the curse thing (how would this help your argument that Dinard was a lock in the Derby anyways?), but I was suggesting that Best Pal's runner-up efforts didn't necessarily mean he was not as good as Dinard, but rather a result of "prepping" for a more important contest (which would fall in line with the fact that Best Pal started the season late). Alluding to Silver Charm (who chased Free House), Real Quiet (who chased Artax and Indian Charlie), and Go For Gin (Irgun, Holy Bull) who all ultimately won the Derby was supposed to lend plausability to that scenario.

As for AP Indy, it seems contradictory to suggest he was a lock for the Derby as well, when you defend the thinking that Arazi was somehow cheated out of a Derby win (they both were entered for the '92 edition).

If Arazi was scratched raceday along AP Indy, who would have been more of a lock?

Do you think that maybe the 9f of the Jim Beam might have been outside Apollo's best range?

How about the 45.3 and 109.3 splits he set? Or that he shipped to a surface that a lot of horses didn't like back then?

Or, maybe coming back in less than four weeks off one of the most gut wrenching performances we've seen out of a sprinter going a mile, that maybe that took something out of him?

Or, how about that Apollo, coming off that Dinard loss, never was the same horse again, winning only one time in those last 17 races of his career? This from a horse with four wins and a head loss to Dinard in his first 6 starts???

Get real man!

As for Hansel's GREAT three year old form going into the derby:

5th by 11 to Fly So Free in the FOY in a blazing fast 144.1

3rd by 5 to FSF again, in the Florida Derby. Strike the Gold second, a super blazing time of 150.2.

Then the 2.5 length win in the Jim Beam in 146.3 for 9f. Nice time, but beat Richman and Wilder Than Ever.

Then the romp in the Lexington. 9 length win over Shotgun Harry J. and Speedy Cure in 142.3.

Hansel did get sharp there, but against badly overmatched opponents and over lightning fast surfaces.

I'll take Dinard please.


It really had nothing to do with anything. Just a weird run of bad luck for winners of that race.


I followed the Arazi situation very closely. The trainer wanted no part of coming back to Kentucky, there were offhanded rumors that the dirt was unkind to Arazi (I don't really know if I buy into that one) and everyone knew he was going to have just one prep race, against the equivalent of low claimers. He had no hope against AP Indy with these things going against him.

Nobody at all, except for any idiot who bet Arazi, perhaps, was surprised by that outcome.

In recent times it would have been nice to see Afleet Alex compete post-Belmont. His post-Derby performances hinted that Rose had finally figured him out, and even though he was not exactly facing terrific fields in those two races, I would have liked to see him against Flower Alley and Saint Liam in the fall of that year.

Other than that, I would have liked to have seen a nice long movie instead of the 2007 Pacific Classic, and I would have enjoyed seeing a match race this year between Rachel Alexandra and Pepper's Pride.

I think we have had this discussion about 37 times, but just out of curiosity, at what distance would you have wanted to see your namesake compete with the big boys? Certainly not 10f. They would have destroyed him.

A. P. Indy was the furthest thing in the world from being a lock to win the Kentucky Derby.

It took him 1:49.25 to win the Santa Anita Derby. On the same exact day and at the same distance, New York reject Another Review won the San Bernadino in 1:47.33 seconds.

People will point to the '92 Santa Anita Derby and call it a great race .. because the eventual Horse of the Year won, 2nd place finisher Bertrando would eventually become a champion older male, and 3rd place finisher Casual Lies would finish underneath in triple crown races.

However, A. P. Indy was scratched out of his next start. Bertrando didn't run again for almost 9 months after the race. And Casual Lies is your typical grinding bridesmaid.. he only won a single race after the SA Derby, and it was at Golden Gate more than a year later.

The '92 SA Derby may have great names attatched to it... but it was a painfully slow race with a couple of fine horses who battled physical issues beating a bridesmaid in dismal time.

Great.

Except AP Indy somehow managed to win the Peter Pan and the Belmont with your beloved figures 13 and 16 points higher than his 'slow' SA Derby win.

Which leads to what I've told you over and over. AP Indy was not a flashy runner and did what was necessary to win. His Peter Pan win was his largest margin of victory, but he was facing crap there.

Also, Indy, being trained by a conservative trainer, was highly unlikely to have been at peak fitness for the SA Derby.

Have you ever even seen that race??

And tell me you aren't dumb enough to actually believe Lil E. Tee was better than Indy. That field for the derby was watered down, and you know it.

For those keeping it real, Apollo was for the most part facing Cal-breds prior to his Herculean tussle with Dinard.

And, yes, Apollo would have been a monster had Dinard not ripped his heart out (by a head) in the San Rafael. See the '90 California Breeder's Championship for further evidence.

So much for allowing horses like Hansel and Best Pal to race into peak form. No matter what you do later in the year, those losses in the prep races really come back to haunt you.

Just to come back to reality, recall that Hansel ended up a dual classic winner and Eclipse Champion while Best Pal won about a trillion dollars.

I guess we don't need to tackle the Preakness, where both of Dinard's archrivals in CA, Olympio and Best Pal couldn't get within 10 lengths of Hansel.

The Prix Omnium II is a listed prep for the French 2000 Guineas. In recent years, Arlington Million winner Spirit One, multiple Group 1 winner American Post, Del Mar Derby winner Blackdoun, Champion winner Literato have come out of the race. The year after Arazi, future Queen Elizabeth winner Bigstone won it.

The claimers that Arazi handled that day, Supermec and River Majesty later came to the States and won or placed in stakes. River Majesty was multiple Group 1 placed to horses like Paradise Creek, Kiris Clown, and Solar Splendor.

If pedigree is any indication, Arazi was cut out to be a miler. His 3/4 brother by Rahy (a son of Arazi's sire, the good miler Blushing Groom), Noverre excelled at a mile. His second dam also produced middle distance turf horse, Joyeux Danseur.

Perhaps, like Apollo in the Jim Beam, he was simply out of his range. Of course, he never ran into Dinard prior to the Derby.

Going into the Kentucky Derby?

Absolutely. He ran a 106 and 107 in his final two fast track prep races. A. P. Indy ran a 100 and a 95 in his.

Not only did Lil E Tee own a figure edge between 4-to-7 lengths over A. P. Indy .. but he also owned a seasoning edge .. having made 4 prior starts in 3 preps to just 2 starts for Ap Indy.






Just because Lil E. Tee was coming into the Derby as a better horse than A. P. Indy ... doesn't mean he was a better horse.

A. P. Indy possibly had an issue bothering him in his preps - and with time to recover - he ran to the level of Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee obviously had his physical issues after the Preakness. He didn't race again at age 3 and only made 3 more starts.

It's unfair and insane to compare the two based on what they've done as sires. Lil E. Tee is an obscurely bred type who was bought from a 2yo in training sale for just 25K. A. P. Indy is a royally bred type who sold for a staggering $2,900,000 as a yearling.

He( Lil E. Tee ) wasn't the greatest Derby winner ever, but I do recommend reading his story in the book Derby Champions.

The guy who trained Lil E Tee as a 2yo was stabled next to my father when my father trained horses.

They bought him up after he won a MSW race at Calder by 11.5 lengths.

Lynn Whiting didn't train him as a 2 yr old? I thought his story was a great lesson of good things happen to those who perservere and never give up. The colt could very easily died and no one would have heard of him.

Mike Trivigno trained him at Calder... he was purchased after a big maiden win.

I think Whiting had him near the end of his 2yo season... maybe for a race or two.

:wf

Bluegrass Cat VS Rockport Harbor

Giacomo VS Mine That Bird

Colonel John VS Sea Hero

Jazil VS D' Tara

Denis of Cork vs. Steppenwolfer

(Winner advances to face Andromeda's Hero)

Wait. Weren't we talking about how Hansel and Dinard were running leading up to the derby, and why Dinard wasn't the lock I thought he was? I'm not sure what your points have to do with the original purpose of our comparisons. I certainly don't.

By the way, were you aware that Hansel ran in the Kentucky Derby and ran fifth by over 10 lengths? Do you think that if a healthy Dinard had run in the derby, that Hansel would have picked it up and ran better?

At the time that race was run, most of the Euro commentators of the day stated that field was terrible. Arazi galloped and could have won by about 40.

A healthy and fit Arazi, yeah, that might have been a different story in his derby.

Taking into consideration that Indy was likely not peaking at the SA Derby, combined with a retardedly low figure for that race (what, no split variant?), I think it's safe to take the Peter Pan as a more realistic expectation of what Indy was going to do in his next start (which was his next start!), the Ky. Derby. If you take that approach, their preps were really not far apart at all, and again, that 95 BSF is moronic.

Who compared them as stallions?

I've got another question for you. Say for the moment that I agree with everything you are saying here. Say also AP Indy does indeed run in the race. Does Lil E. Tee go off favored over Indy? I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

Rockport when healthy

Giacomo

Sea Hero

This one is actually easy...

D'TARA

Well your other contention was that Dinard was lengths better than both Best Pal and Hansel (thus he was a lock). That almost certainly was not the case.

Actually, Hansel ran 10th as the favorite. Considering both his final prep efforts and subsequent classic runs, isn't that effort a bit of an anomaly?

And yet I'm sure Dinard couldn't possibly have thrown in a clunker (if he could actually make it to the starting gate), even though reports were that he was training poorly over the CD surface.

Did you cry?

8f. Even up to 9f. I think beyond that, they start to even out. Depending on who else was in the race and how the pace played out, they might never catch KG going 10f. But at 8f, I don't think they'd have a chance of catching him.

Track supers do weird things. Figure makers do exactly what you describe all the time. When they get a puzzling result, they love splitting variants.

If you watch that race and thought, hmm, those horses are only about a 95 BSF quality type, then clearly your judgment is impaired. That was a terrific race, by terrific horses, and that figure was no way indicative of how good that race was.

You really should know by now that figures are often misleading, if not outright wrong.

Oh, and you neglected to answer my question about favoritism in the derby that year. Do you think Lil E. Tee was going to go off at lower odds than Indy?

If not, why? Just cause Indy had the expensive price tag and the fancy pedigree?

Maybe because people might have realized who was really the better horse, ridiculous figures or not?

Watching him progress through his races, he was a horse to me that was already really good and had a ton more upside to him. So, to my eyes, he was already better than Hansel and/or Best Pal and I fully expected him to keep getting better.


Sorry there, my mistake. I don't know why I thought he was fifth. I was probably overrating him??

I think his final two preps were really nice, but if there was an anomaly in his race record, those two races were it. As for his two classic wins, the Preakness was his shining moment, but Corporate Report and Mane Minister weren't much.

He never threw in a clunker.

As for those reports of him training poorly over the CD surface, I think that was entirely likely a result of his injury.

Facepalm.

Of course Lil E Tee would have been a bigger price ... he finished closely behind eventual Preakness winner Pine Bluff twice at Oaklawn.

Horses don't get bet in that race solely on the basis of big recent figs. I think both Charismatic and War Emblem had the fields highest last out figure going into the Derby ... and both were huge prices.

Variant splits are normally the result of extreme wind and weather. Again - the race was in early April - the winner was scratched out of his next race .. and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Whatever man.

Back then, it was not uncommon at all to see a lower level horse run a faster time than a stakes race on the same card and have the stakes race come back faster. Sometimes much faster.

At some point in the last five to ten years, some bright individual figured out that that makes them look kinda stupid.