If you are only using "the info provided to me in the program", maybe you should stop gambling. Only using the program and betting on tracks, horses and connections that are unfamiliar to you, puts you in the passing lane to the poor house. Looking at the M/L and using it as a tool gauge firsters, seals the deal.

As Steve already stated, this filly was not a stretch at all.

The crap you are talking about has been happening since you have been betting.

The ML means squat, it is one person's opinion, and that person can't be right ever single race. Hell, I have seen 20/1 ML's open up at 6/5, stay at 6/5 and win by 10 lengths

Ok, I 100% disagree. I don't think the morning-line should have anything to do with handicapping. I think it's MY job to see Ken McPeek, Kent D., some solid back works, and know that the wide draw is no real roadblock to Keeneland success for a trainer who excels with baby runners and thrives at that meet.

That's the point at which I see what seems like a pretty bad line like 12-1, cross my heart and thank Mike B., and go for it.

I didn't play the race, FWIW, but this kind of situation is happening somewhere every day.

A horse debuted at Keeneland the other day for the Cannon Shell barn that was 20/1 ML and went off at 34/1. Said horse never had a work past 101 and Cannon Shell said the horse was working well.

The horse ran a good 2nd, but by your theory, I should have never played him, or the exacta with the McPeek horse because he had slow worked and was 20/1 ML

First thing 12-1 Morning Line on a first time starter is not dismissing him.

I know Clockers are not on the Up and Up but your argument here holds NO water
The Work in 103.1 on Sept 24th Was in the Slop Plus 19 of the 24 horse who worked that morning Went In 103 or Slower. THere were works that day in 104, 105 and 106 and Change. THe fastest 3/8's that day was 38 and change Plus the Majority of the Horses that worked A 1/2 on the 24th went in 51 or 52. Face it the Track was slow that Day.

Of course its not the first time its happened nor will it be the last.

Im still completely confused and need an answer to my question. Why if they are sitting on a monster in this filly did they feel the need to conceal her talent to the betting public? What did they gain? She still opened up even money.

Im just going to chalk this up to two things.

It was a well conceived plan to hide her talent from the people not in the know and a poorly conceived plan to hide it from people in the know.

And the reason why they did this is unknown :zz:

Well im not a professional handicapper and it not my JOB to know im being duped by the oddsmaker. So I have to 100% disagree with you.

"Duped" or not, "professional" or not, it's YOUR job to decide if YOU like the horse. Battaglia putting an "8-1" instead of a "12-1" shouldn't change your opinion of the horse. A morning-line is nothing more than a guess of what the linemaker thinks the public will do.

If you're betting or not betting a horse because of what Battaglia or any other morning-line maker puts next to it, you're not even getting off on the right foot for handicapping, let alone the kind of headstart you're going to need to have any chance to make money at the track.

And as a horizontal player, I have incredible empathy for bad beats in multi-race wagers, incredible understanding of how hard they can be to hit and how tough it can be to go 3 of 4 and miss a horse that doesn't turn out the way you think it will, but no sympathy whatsoever for blaming a ML maker for the fact that you didn't do your homework and overlooked EVERY relevant angle on this horse's page.

First of all this was not a strong group of horses. Why that isnt obvious at a quick glance at the program is telling. Secondly, trainers are trying to get their horses ready to run and obviously McPeek did his job. The horses work pattern was certainly good enough to show that something was there as she had two bullets at CD and was always one of the quickest workers every morning she worked. 101 is a very good work for a 2 yo filly btw and Round pen pointed out the 103 was on a slow, sloppy track. Not to mention that she had only worked on the dirt and was racing on the polytrack.

You can say a lot of things about McPeek, but the thought that this was some put over horse is ludicrous.

I do agree the M/L was pretty bad but certainly not for the reasons that you think.

And McPeek bought Curlin!!

And Einstein.

NT

Well said.

Just for good measure, here’s another example:

Friday night I was doing an OTB gig in Chicago and played Hawthorne’s early Pick-4. I was stupid and let my bankroll dictate what combinations I played rather than vice versa.

I really, really loved Inscript because her older brother freaked out on real dirt, and she was making her first start on the stuff that night in the first leg of the pick-4.

I singled the second leg, which was in and of itself, a bad idea, because nobody in their right mind singles a horse with Brandon Meier up. Still, I used Shaquita, because I figured she’d get a soft lead and have plenty left turning for home. Ansong was the obvious other play despite it being her first time on the dirt thanks to her form and her wet track breeding, but I cut her so I could afford the other legs I wanted.

I went deeper in the next two legs trying to catch a price, but both races produced reasonable winners, each of whom was on my ticket.

Now, because I singled Shaquita in the second leg and didn’t use Ansong, I missed out on the Pick-4, even though I knew full well that Ansong was a huge threat.

However, because the minimum wager was $1 on this Pick-4, I lost, whereas I could have included Ansong in the second leg and spent the same amount of money that fit within my bankroll if Hawthorne offered $0.50 Pick-4s.

They don’t, and I made the decisions based on my handicapping that I thought were best given the way I set myself up for the night.

But at the end of the day, it’s not Hawthorne’s fault that my ticket lost. It’s mine, because I handicapped the races based on what I saw and constructed a ticket that I thought gave me the best chance to win from a risk v. reward perspective, given the seemingly wide-open nature of legs three and four. Now I’ve given you a perfectly legitimate scenario in which I would have hit that bet, and it’s quite clear that all I needed was for Hawthorne to offer $0.50 Pick-4s.

If Hawthorne offered $0.50 Pick-4s, I hit that bet.

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/HAW101609USA.pdf

The logic you’re using would give me free license to blame them for the fact that I didn’t punch the right ticket to win. But you know what? It’s still my fault. Not Hawthorne’s. I’m responsible for constructing the ticket given the circumstances. They’re not responsible for tailoring the circumstances to ensure I construct a winning ticket.

It's your fault for betting Hawthorn in the first place

Hey man, a little bit of real dirt with horses I know has been striking me as particularly formful so far.

the horse did scr in for this spot..and was pounded at the windows..why the big deal..

This whole thread is LOL. People who bet based on ML's are why yesterday's late P4 at KEE paid $1865 when in reality it should have paid around half that because a 15-1 ML horse (trained by PLETCHER!) who won a wide open, mile and a half turfer first leg at 7-1. The other winners were 2nd choice, 4th choice (2nd ML), and heavy favorite.

Battaglia missed on the ML. The horse should have been 6-1 ML or so, and as Hooves said scratched Friday for this spot. Big deal, it's a firster, he generally does a good job at making morning lines (whereas he should have retired from calling races long ago)

kgar311.....thats why its PARI-MUTAL wagering and not betting NFL with a bookie...the public makes the real odds not the oddsmaker.....now Battaglia is certainly never going to be confused with the sharpest oddsmaker in the biz, but you need to relax and admit you left out a hot horse, hot trainer, hot jockey, etc, at your own peril.....your mistake not Battaglia's.....

Dude, you need to play Tampa Bay Downs for an entire meet. You will learn that ML odds mean nothing.

:tro:

:)
December 12th

The key to the race was the board and the pattern of money played which unfortunately doesn't help with the P4. 5 minutes from the open of play for the 8th race Saturday I looked at the board and saw that my intended play, #7 Star Recruit, was 7-1 while I expected a third of that.

At that point I realized Star Recruit was unlikely to win and I would need to scale back the intended play, but I would continue to watch the board and see if the first lump sums on the #12 Connie and Michael were supported with additional lump sums which did continue right up to post time.

The play was to read the board and accept the exacta being advertised by the pattern and the money sustained on the FTS. While I agree there are times FTS take early and excessive money this seemed like far more and I wished I trusted my instincts here a little bit more.

At least we'll all have something to do on Tuesday's....

Maybe Bigs can confirm it but I heard Tampa is ditching Tuesdays and going to a Wed-Sun schedule for the bulk of the meet.

NT

The whole damn meet. It is on their website.

Dumb as can be

Bigs' people getting too big for their britches

Ditching Tuesdays is fine by me. OTB here is no longer open on Mon or Tues :)

A similar scenario just happened at Remington Park - Race 7 tonight 10/19/09. The 11 horse was 20-1 ML 1st time starter for Milligan was bet down to 4/5 when the betting began and was sent off at 4-1. Cruised by the favorite (#9 Asmussen horse). STEAM

The economy?

Funny You say that but I bet there is Some truth to that here in Ocala the ITW is also Closed on Monday and Tuesday. THere are alot of Tampa fans Here in Ocala for the Winter and I feel certain they do miss some handle from alot of the ITW and OTB's being closed on tuesday

Keeneland is closed most Mondays and Tuesdays as well. Sucks!

In principle, I'm sympathetic with complaints like these, as it seems unfair for horses to get 'put over' with no warning to bettors.

But come on.

No one was robbed, stop it. There's a reason people avoid betting multi-race sequences that have a leg with a bunch of firsters if it isn't the first leg. Workouts are, by and large, meaningless. Sometimes you'll see a horse with a dynamite work pattern and bullet works win, but much more often you'll see them stink up the joint. Likewise, while horses with spaced, slow works often lose, they pop up and win a lot as well.

You have to know that you're going to be in the dark with first-time starters UNLESS YOU PERSONALLY WATCH THEM WORK OUT. And even then sometimes it's dicey. This is part of the game. Don't play a Pick 4 with a firster-laden leg as the second leg and then complain when one gets put over on you.

As for blaming the clocker and the oddsmaker, that's just ridiculous, and you know it. While I agree that more should be done to confirm workout times, Keeneland has actually added clocker comments to their website, which is way more than any other track has done. Sometimes there's going to be a live horse that neither you nor the oddsmaker knows is live until the odds open up. Connie and Michael clearly had a gigantic "BET ME" sign on her when she opened up at even-money. You should have adjusted and started a Pick 3 with her or something. The late Pick 3 still paid $606 for a deuce.

It happens. Either stop betting sequences with firsters or take your lumps.

Baffert and Headley horses fire bullets all the time before their first start. But that's no indication they are going to run well.

Playing a race filled with nothing but first time starters is like throwing darts

Essentially, yes. They have taken a few cost cutting measures the past couple years, this being one of them. They just weren't doing enough business on those 2 days to justify being open. They have this sports bar inside there that used to be open Thur-Sun where you could watch other sports in conjunction with the simulcast feeds, but now the only time they open it up is on Thursday nights when they have poker night (free games). I think they also open it up on triple crown and breeders cup days as well.
The OTB used to be divided into 2 halves, seperated by glass, for smoking and non-smoking. Both sides were always open and were staffed with a couple tellers. This summer, they decided to make the whole building non-smoking. By doing that, it has enabled them to completely shut down one side of the building, except for on Saturdays, so they don't have as many employees to pay. Truth be told, I'm surprised its still open. I have been here 3 years now and in those 3 years, I have maybe met between 5-10 people that actually understand horse racing and know how to read a form. The great majority stand sit there with a pencil and paper just playing numbers.

For what it's worth, McPeek said that Connie and Michael is now being pointed towards the BC juvy fillies.

I guess this is a testament to my backward handicapping, but instead of dismissing a horse because of 12-1 ML odds. I tend to look for the positives that would make someone bet a horse from 12-1 down to even money. Especially at the first flip of the odds. There are lots of ways to play this game....

Race was not unnoticed by others, but no suggestion of shenanigans by the author of this article other than to note the "DT Stable effect" (i.e., when 50 owners show up and bet on their horse).

http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/edit...e.cgi?id=16638

Maiden races on the grass are a bit easier.

GPK, now THAT'S a good avatar - geesh, she's pretty, Dad! :{>: