While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.

Which brings us back to the original post, if he wins the BC Classic next month, which is certainly not a certainty, he deserves to have a few votes cast his way for HOY. He's get mine if I had one.

Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.

There's little doubt about that. Summer Bird has developed into a really nice horse. I still think SB would need help up front at this point (as in Rachel getting pushed on the lead) for him to beat her.
Having them face each other on synthetic would be meaningless, IMO. It would be like having them race against each other in a turf race.. completely different surface.. and we all have to get past trying to think dirt and AW are anything similar.

Yeah maybe, but we have to live with the fact poly is part of today's racing fabric now. As long as they both run on it it is a fair match up due to the fact no one has an advantage since both are foreign to the surface. Really there was no excuse for her not running yesterday, I know JJ had the Preemptive statement she was done for the year, but the JCGC carries more prestige than the Woodward. Up until now her most prestigious win would be that race. SB's is the JCGC. Which one means more? If we get past the ga ga factor of RA, I think we would all agree SB's set of 3 gr.1's Belmont-Travers-JCGC is more impressive than RA's set of 3 the Preak-Haskell-Woodward or atleast it is on paper.

Edit-Well not really, I keep forgetting RA has a poly win to her credit.

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

:tro: :tro:

altho i agree that summer bird is turning out to be a good horse, there is nothing i've seen from rachel that would indicate she is tailing off, or that she won't continue to have a good year next year. mdo certainly was no slouch at four, and i douby anyone would argue that rachel has shown precocity. if anything she has shown herself to be able to run one top notch race after another, with no signs of losing a step. she ran a hell of a campaign this year-beginning to end a good one. the same cannot be said about summer bird.
at any rate, i look forward to future meetings between the two.

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

Agreed! I didn't say it was a good reason or logical, just my opinion of Jackson's reason.

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

Let's lobby Interpretation's folks to cut him back to a 5-furlong Poly allowance race this fall, it's unknown and would be exciting, right? The sport would be better for it.

No way he will get 30 million and why wouldnt he just wait till next year anyway? A big year next year and he will get just as much and may be dealing from strength in a better economic climate.

Funny I think that Curlins perception after the race was brought into a more realistic light. He was a pretty good horse, though hardly the type that Jackson and the infidels thought he was.

As a Broodmare prospect and not a Stallian prospect, I think he would do it for the sporting reason only, look at SB's owners, they are having a hell of a time and they have seemingly have concluded that running is better than not running taking a greater risk than a multi millionaire that JJ is.

No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. Surely Jackson has done that with RA but lets face it, he needs to race her at 1 1/4 next year or there will always be that knock against her. Speculating that she could get the distance and doing it are two different things. I think Freddy is nuts to think that she is in another league from Summer Bird, especially at 1 1/4 which is clearly a distance that he excells at. People get too hung up on the results of one race especially in a race where SB was clearly at a disadvantage (track plays to RA's favor not to mention he was cutting back off a 1 1/2 race to 1 1/8th which is tricky).

Anyone who says the sport wouldnt be better off with RA running in the BC has a strange outlook on better off.

Why, because he was only a pretty good turf horse?

Ok cant argue it is a horrible time to have a good horse but whatever the figure it is way more then they will make racing.

I watched tons of race replays from the 90's last night (do I know how to have a good Saturday night or what? :o ) and it's so completely depressing how far we've fallen from this concept...

It's also a shame that this has completely destroyed the significance of races like the Pimlico Special etc.

Curlin would have trounced Summer Bird.. We haven't be blessed with a big race from Summer Bird on a fast track perhaps he just loves the slop.. I like Summer Bird but so far he is just a very nice sort.. They could run around Ky and Summer Bird isn't beating Rachel.

No because he was simply a pretty good horse period.

I thought you said the way they keep score is with the purse money now its about seeing who is the best? Dinny Phipps must be pissed at Shug for not going in the 500k race huh. I imagine his scorecard needed the extra 200k lol

And they will make the same or more in a years time

Why would have Curlin trounced SB? At this point in their careers I would imagine they have to be pretty comparable. Macho Again almost beat RA. Enough said.

BTW Gone Astray trumps market conditions because the breeding world needs a son of the great Dixie Union badly.. Claiborne has his paddock sodded with special grass..

Well if money doesnt count then why are so many horses retired so early because of money?

He will be running next year.

Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.

Curlin, the 3 year old, was a terrific horse. Did you watch the Haskel did you see the great Summer bird with his new special high cruise speed and new early foot get buried? Did you see him gain a friggin inch on a surface he apparently thrives on.

Unfortunately you still dont comprehend that Rachel was flying the first 4 f's in the Woodward. The fact that she face 3 different runs at her while running every step with an awesome first half seems to escape you. How I have no clue. Macho ran a big race with a great set up he is certainly a Grade one talent and that day was he best effort of his life.

Curlin was at least 5 lengths faster the Summer Bird and had explosive speed. How you can compare the two is puzzling.

30 mil counts 250k doesn't.. BTW of course it counts only because it can be counted.

He have no clue how either will winter and come back.

You are really going to have to expand on bottom thoughts.. Because you would think if a horse can win the Belmont he would need to be fit..lol

He will be running at 5 too..

Um did you watch Curlins Haskell? What does RA's woodward have to do with SB and Curlin? Curlins Woodward was less than impressive over a bunch of goats last year. Curlin was just a very good horse that raced as a 4 yo against mostly weak older horses except for the BC.

He probably should be gelded

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.

I'm not convinced at at 10 or more furlongs, SB wouldn't handle RA. SB has developed alot this year. He is no longer a dead closer but a horse with a strong mid move that is game to the wire. He is unlike most US horses inthat he's better at 10f and 9. How exactly is Monmouth Summer Bird's "favorite track?" It's a track generally kinder to the leader at the top of the stretch than anyone making up ground.
I don't think that Ice would shrink at all from a 10f rematch with RA.
If SB beats all the horses RA beat this summer and several other major contenders in the BCC, esp if Sea The Stars shows up, then he has to be considered a contender for HOY.

The sad thing is that all we can do is speculate. Why do I have a feeling that JJ will spend more time next year mapping out plans than actually running?

In the future I would love the next time JJ maps out a campaign for a horse, that he fits into his reasoning that the season doesn't end on the first week of September regardless of who the horse is and I am not evening talking about the BC necessarily especially when the vast majority of good horses have plans of running in November and beyond.

I didn't realize every post in the thread was supposed to deal only with the title of the thread. There was a different subplot kind of being discussed I thought, but go on talking about whatever it is you feel is most germane.