Interesting theory....................

10TH (5:43) Jockey Club Gold Cup S. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Sette E Mezzo Dominguez R A 126 L
2 Macho Again Albarado R J 126 L
3 Summer Bird Desormeaux K J 122 L
4 Tizway Maragh R 126 L
5 Asiatic Boy (ARG) Garcia Alan 126 Blk-On L
6 Dry Martini Prado E S 126 L
7 Quality Road Velazquez J R 122 L

This is a very interesting race

The Hirsch really is going to get killed with scratches as either Winchester or Gio Ponti could scratch, Presious Passion is likely to and Ready's Echo is cross-entered on Sunday in another short field:

4th (2:35)
Kelso H. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Le Grand Cru Lezcano J 113 L
2 Court Vision Dominguez R A 120 Blk-On L
3 Yorktown (FR) Rose J 113 L
4 Ready's Echo Leparoux J R 114 L
5 Yield Bogey Samyn J L 114 L

Winchester and Gio Ponti could both run but you're right about Ready's Echo and Presious Passion. This whole charade about PP needing firm turf is funny b/c what he really needs is the same soft competition he beat up on at Mth and GP.

NT

The All Grade 1's Pick 4 is looking better and better. Shoot, pass on a couple races 2morrow and use that money to put together a nice Pick 4 at Belmont. Here's hoping that we can get a nice string of 4 races that pays a couple thousand at the end.

Lets look at the Pick 4,
Race 7 5 horses entered, 4 of which are very legit winners
Race 8 7 entries
Race 9 8 entries
Race 10 7 entries

Just my humble opinion but that is a nice sequence for a Pick 4 and I look forward to watching and betting! Lets look for the positives!

You know, I tend to look for quality, not quanity. I'll take a 5 horse field if it has 5 legit entries anyday versus a 10 horse field full of entries who show beyers of -0. Ah yes, Beulah will be open in no time:zz:

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the way this meet has been going, I wouldn't count on any Pick 4's paying a couple thousand ever. The sequence looks incredibly chalky to me. I tried, but I just don't see the cute horses that'll trip this thing for four figures. Still should be a great day of racing, but if you're looking to get rich, I don't think this is the day.

No buzzkill at all, reality. I am gonna try and get this thing down with possibly 2 singles, and play it for like $5 bucks or more. Take a stand and chance and see how it shakes down. You are probably right, chalky.

5/All/1/All cost you 49 for a buck
All/All/1/3 cost ya 35 for a buck...


Don't expect to visit the IRS window...

Yo, talkin different lingo, I am not playing a Pick 4 ticket for a dollar, not with this sequence. Talkin at least a $5 Pick 4.

I may try and beat the favorites in the JCGC and use Asiatic Boy and Dry Martini, leaning towards Asiatic Boy. Wow, QR and Bird should be heavy favorites, but............................................... ...............................

Gotcha.... I like your thinking with Dry Martini as nice value that is where I am heading. I think SUmmer Bird will be overbet and as a 3 year old I am not sold against these.

I dont think Fabulous Strike has to win tomorrow. I have a strong feeling they are going to go really nuts up front and Kodiak Kowboy is going to steal the show. Never been a huge fan of his but I think tomorrow is the time to bet him. People will be disuaded by his reputation for "not liking 6F" which is completely untrue and you may see the best price on him in a long time. Thinking the betting centers strongly around Fabulous Strike and Munnings, and maybe the Kowboy is let go at 4/1. You guys notice Asmussen has him back in his barn?

Certainly Hold Me Back didn't give the sophomore class a boost with his uninspiring race in the Kentucky Cup Classic.

That last race sealed the deal for me with Kodiak Kowboy. He just can't get it done unless he has the race served up for him. Even when he beat Fabulous Strike in the Carter, FS ran such a better race, it was a travesty he had to lose. It's a good field, so I don't advocate taking 3/5 on FS, but he's showed more rating capability this year than in the past and who exactly is the speedball in here? FS didn't have much issue with the pace Go Go Shoot set last time.

If FS loses it'll be to Munnings, but I don't see it happening at six furlongs.

The Assman may make the difference.

His powers are great, but I don't think he can make a confirmed seven-furlong nibbler beat the best six-furlong horse in the land.

I dare not doubt him. And slop will be the topping.

He barely got up and beat him by 1 length. I thought Go Go Shoot had him at the 1/16th pole. I agree with you on the Carter. Fab Strike will be shorter than 3/5 imo, unless the Munnings fans really go nuts.

Nice race, even with the short field.

I am leaning towards Go Go Shoot as a possible single for a price.

And where was Kodiak Kowboy?

I dont like him at all. In fact he would be my first and possibly only throwout of this bunch. The time to bet him was last time.

Thats the reason I like Kowboy. You think Ramon is going to just let Go Go Shoot get loose again? He (on Fab Strike) had to work very hard to get up in his last race and I doubt the pace scenario will roll that way again.

I sense a strong pace duel developing and the Kowboy coming on late.

The best myth in horse racing is that Kodiak Kowboy doesnt run well going 6F :D

I thought he had a pretty rough trip that day but I'll go back and watch it again.

I'd have a very, very hard time betting Kodiak Kowboy tomorrow. When a horse like him who makes one big run has been failing with terrific setups then it's not a good idea at all to take him going a trip that has never been his best. This race would be vastly different if it was 7 furlongs but, alas, it is not and thus he's going to have to be in high gear very early.

Go Go Shoot ran his eyeballs out last time but he was awfully dull when fresh earlier this year and while he's working well, he may need a race and be really tuned up for a race like the Sport Page later this month.

I think this is Fabulous Strike's race to lose, obviously, but I'm going to use Peace Chant a bit as well. He likely needed a race going into the Forego and he was given what I considered to be an overly aggressive ride from a generally patient rider. He is a one-run closer but was too close to a hot pace and had no place to go through the last two and a half furlongs. If the rains come I think his chances may get marginally better as his dam, Safely Kept was 2 for 3 on wet tracks in her day and her offspring are a combined 4-10 on wet tracks.

NT

They don't understand entertainment. They think we give a sht who wins a 5 horse race (nope.)

He's allowed to regress off the Travers.

I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:

1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.

2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace

3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup

4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement

5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.


So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.

So the Carter wasn't a perfect setup because FS hung around? At that point in time Driven by Success was one of the better sprinters on the east coast and the fact that he and Fab Strike hung around is not that surprising. KK needed every bit of that final furlong to get up when he was able to lay back and make his one run in a race where FS BURIED all of the other speed.

I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks.

You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup.

Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by.

The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get.

Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap.

NT

Or suffer from a bad infection that has him shelved until next year..

Looks like the rain could hold off for most of the day according to weather.com - track is labeled fast, turf good.

I did not hear that... interesting. I always kind of liked this horse. He put in that backstretch move at CD and really ran well in the Travers, and of course, the Lane's End win.

When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.

running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:

1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace

2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat

3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed

4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race


5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE


I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).

What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.

P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.

I agree that early/late positioning is important, but it's too reliant on how good the speed/closers are to be used solely in determining pace setup. Just because Kodiak Kowboy was the only one who closed in the Carter, that doesn't mean that the race didn't set up for him. The blistering pace and slow come home time tell us otherwise. No other decent closers lifted a hoof. Tale of Ekati has been slow/injured this year, Ah Day isn't a Grade 1 horse, etc. This doesn't make KK's race any better. He didn't make a "huge run", he came lumbering along to barely nail an understandably tired Fabulous Strike at a distance unfavorable to FS. Like I said, even with the Assman's magic, I'd be stunned if this horse beat FS at six furlongs today.

Totally ignoring relative fractions and relying solely on early/late positioning is a pretty hardheaded strategy.

What Ateam said is basically what I'm getting at.

As far as Better Talk Now, I've always been a fan of how he's been able to stay relevant for many, many years. I know he needed a good setup to win but that doesn't mean that what he did is not admirable.

As far as Kodiak Kowboy running a "good" race in the Carter in your opinion, we'll agree to disagree, I thought the thing fell into his lap and he was the only horse to make a meaningful off the pace move.

NT

Dang, Carribean Sunset is out of the Flower Bowl. I'm interested in Moneycantbuymelove (IRE)...

You don't see a finish like the one in the 4th everyday. Bad luck for the 4.

:tro:

Yikes. Some crow please. Never underestimate the Assman.

:D

Good race...at least what we could see of it.

Shouldn't have underestimated the Assmagic.

Score one for Fats and Gander.

NT

I've repeatedly tried to make my case here, to no avail. You guys just don't get it. What has happened in my use of these charts is that I've MODELED races --- specifically race types. These models are every bit as good as speed or pace figures (which are also models). It's just a different way of looking at races.

When some of you set aside your figure centric methods, you might just get what I'm doing. Till then, it makes no sense for me to discuss races (setups) here.

Shut the f.uck up.