I brought this up last month, Summer Bird is the only horse that could knock off RA for HOY, though admittidely it is remote with voters most likely swooning at her this yr. If he can win the JCGC convincingly, and then win the BC convincingly he may sway some votes away from her, in essence it's not enough that he wins these 2 races but do so in an Arazi like fashion.

Zenyatta has zero chance at HOY with her 09 campaign.

What does training Pleasant Colony have to do with garnering respect? Chuck trained Hacker Craft, but I have a helluva lot more respect for him.

It's a closed case already but if Zenyatta were to beat a field that included Summer Bird and Mine that Bird and Macho Again (the same males Rachel beat) in addition to Rail Trip, Einstein, and whichever of the top Europeans that come over (especially if Sea the Stars was in that group), she'd get my vote if I had one. She wouldn't have accomplished as much during the entire season but I'd think she'd have proven she could beat the same horses as Rachel and even better ones.

Zenyatta should have been Horse of the Year last year. Curlin won the "Horse of the Year lifetime achievement award". It was the Olympic Ice Skating Campaign. Tried something out of the box twice, rewarded for failure twice.

His ONLY win of merit was in Dubai.

You guys are a trip. You're killing Zenyatta's competition. Besides Einstein and Well Armed, who did Curlin beat last year? Divine Park? Past the Point?

He received accolades for losing on Turf because "they tried something special". He was lauded in defeat for losing the Breeder's Cup because it was run on "plastic".

Which begs the question, which HOY in the last 10 years had the weakest competition? Favorite Trick? St. Liam? Ghostzapper? Azeri? Charismatic? Mineshaft?

Can't argue with this at all. Curlin was a disgusting choice for HOY last year to me. As for the question of who had the weakest competition, it would be Favorite Trick but by technicality, he doesn't qualify since that was more than 10 years ago. I would say it would be Charismatic or Mineshaft. Mineshaft only faced one other horse that was considered among the top seven horses in his division that year and he lost that one race. He won HOY without defeating a single other horse that was top seven in his division. That's incredible to me.

If Sea the Stars is going to be the yardstick, does this mean that a mare who finishes ahead of him in the Classic (assuming he runs a decent race) should get the Eclipse for older filly or mare regardless of what zenyatta does in the Ladies Classic?

What effect if any will Rachel's early exit in mid-late summer have on the voting for HOY? I know many will say none, but we don't know that for sure...there are bound to be some terrific performances that will no doubt leave an ideliable mark on horseracing fans in the BC, BC preview/preps and beyond.

I think the real question voters would have to ask if she won the Classic and retired undefeated is this:

Has any horse ever won the Breeders Cup Classic and Breeders Cup Distaff and retired undefeated? Obviously not. That is why I think Zenyatta would be a lock for horse of the year if she found a way to win the Classic.

They may be occupied with other questions such as when was the last time a filly won the Preakness and the Woodward.

or the last time a 3 yo filly won three gr 1's over males, including one over older males.
since the award is for top horse of the year, not of the day, and not of the bc, i would have to think that rachels accomplishments outshine anyone else in north america. she's run as many races vs males this year as zenyatta has run all year. top that off with a record-breaking performance at oaklawn, a double digit win in the oaks, and i believe it's seven tracks she's run over this year in her eight wins.

the whole point is probably moot, since i really don't see zenyatta attempting 10f vs males, since it would be her first time for both.

I'm so over Rachel Alexandra vs. Zenyatta threads. Where's the Jonesboro thread? His next start is more interesting to me than debating this same argument yet another time.

so why visit one of the threads?

It seemed more interesting than the "Happy Birthday DrugS" thread?

nothing is ever more interesting then the birthday threads! just ask btw! :D

How many times has it happened where a clear a seemingly runaway leader has stopped racing before year's end and had another horse come in and take it away from them? Off the top of my head, I can only think of Smarty Jones in 2004 losing out to Ghostzapper and in that case, Smarty ended in June. Rachel raced into September. Other than that, I can think of a few horses that ended their season early and still won the title. I don't go back as far as others but I know that it didn't hurt:

Spend a Buck
Criminal Type
Holy Bull
Charismatic
Point Given

The part in bold is what makes this a debate that has no clear answer. If the award is truly for the most accomplished horse of that year, then Rachel is a clear winner. But the criteria is not clear enough, IMO. It says it's to be awarded to the best horse to race in North America and is open to all horses that have run at least one time in NA. You get a situation like last year. I thought that even with his running only once and her running only once, it was extremely clear that Raven's Pass and Goldikova were the best 3yo male and female to run in NA last year. Even with a win in the Classic, Zenyatta won't have accomplished as much as Rachel this year but by beating a better set of horses, even if it's only once, she can still make a very valid claim to being the best horse to run in this country this year. As I've said many times, if people want the award to be for the entire year, I'd have no problem with that but they need to change the criteria. To me, it's hypocrital to say that it's not about one day or one race after they've awarded many championships to horses simply because of one race.

Isnt the voting supposed to be based on a whole year? Not just the fall campaign? Rachel's 8 wins in 8 races will be equal or more than the other HOY contenders by the end of the year. Shoot.. Z is running throughout the fall and still wont come close to 8 races and 8 wins. Rachel has put in a full years work by todays standards already, who cares if she needs a break now?

Also, as much as I love Smarty Jones, Rachel's resume has been more impressive IMO.

The original post posed a question based on a premise. "If Zenyatta win the Classic..." While I don't think the premise is valid (I don't think she'll run there and if she does I don't think she'll win) if I choose to play in this thread I have to accept the premise. If Z beats Summer Bird, Mine That Bird, Sea The Stars, Macho Again, Rail Trip, Einstein anyother Euro challenger and the rest of the Poly specialists out there, she deserves HOY.

Again, I don't understand how people keep saying it's SUPPOSED TO BE BASED ON THE WHOLE YEAR when many champions have been named off of ONE RACE. Arazi was one of the three finalist for HOY in 1991 and only ran once here, in a 2yo restricted race for goodness sake. Singspiel won champion turf horse in 1996 and NEVER WON A RACE IN THE UNITED STATES. With that in mind, how can it be said that it's supposed to be based on the whole year? If it's based on the whole year, Arazi, Singspiel, Miesque, High Chaparral, Daylami.......the list goes on and on.......all shouldn't have won titles. They won titles because they proved on one day, in one race, that they were the best horse to race in their division in North America that year.

It is based on a years worth of work. Sure we have a turf horse here and there that comes over for the BC and blows away the field, and they get Turf Champion. But longshot winners of the BC usually dont get voted champ. I dont think Volponi did, not sure about Cat Thief but I also dont think it happened there either. Usually the horse that wins the BC has also had a very good campaign all year (like Curlin in 2007, Invasor, etc, etc).. so it makes sense for them to be champ.

With all due respect, this doesn't make any sense. You say in one sentence that it's based on a year's worth of work but then in the next sentence that we get the occassional winner that wins it off of one race. Which is it? A season or a race? You are admitting that it's both. In this case, Zenyatta wouldn't be a longshot winner that had nothing else in her record. It wouldn't be a Volponi or Arcangues situation. It would be a legitimate horse making a legitimate case by beating the best field of the year.

What horse in 2009 has attracted the imagination and admiration of the racing public as well as the general public at large?...RA, 'nuff said. She is definitely HOY no matter what happens between now and BC.

Point Given and Minshaft are the 2 that bother me. I guess what I was saying in my inarticulate way is " who remembers the movies in March when Oscar voting arrives ".?

I think it depends on the individual voter and what they are looking for. If I had a vote, I would have voted for Ghostzapper as the 2005 HOY even though he only ran in the Met Mile in May. I try to look for a horse that qualifies under the stated criteria and as long as that horse is a qualified contender, I don't care if they've run once or 100 times here. I try to vote on the horse that I thought was the best one, not necessarily the most accomplished one. The two are not always synonomous. For me, if that overwhelming performance comes in May, it's no less significant than if it comes in October or November. I do get your point though but I think that the significance of Rachel doing her thing during the TC, the most publicized time of the year for this sport, will make her accomplishments unforgettable. An older horse that dominated the first part of the year and won the Donn, SA Hcp, Oaklawn Hcp, and Pimlico Special could be forgotten by years end if he retired in May. But not Rachel. And she ran into September which is very different than stopping in May or June.

Only in Turf Championship and occasionally Juvi championship is it determined off of one race... which kinda makes more sense because Euro turf horses are vastly superior to US turf horses.

Also, a Plastic Classic may not mean as much to voter as in years past where it was an actual dirt race. It obviously didnt mean much to voters last year.

I don't think the issue we are talking about is who's horses are superior but whether or not championships can be won off of one race. If you are saying that you don't think the SHOULD be, I can respect that opinion. I just think it's wrong to say that the awards ARE based on the whole year when there is plenty of history that say that isn't always the case. I will say that in a situation where I think it's close between two horses as far as who's best, I'll look at the whole year as a sort of tiebreaker. But when one has a clear advantage to me, that horse wins out whether it's one race or 100.

two year olds don't have much of a body of work, so it's no surprise to me that voting can fall in favor of the bcj winner. however, declan's moon having won proves that just being the winner of that race is NO guarantee. i thought with anticipation should have been named top turfer-but the one race rule means many look elsewhere in voting-again, that issue imo has more to do with voters having a lack of turf know-how. chappy won the turf, he had a name in europe, so he got the vote. i think a lot of the time, voters tilt toward the derby and bc winners, as that's all they follow or remember. it's not a good horses fault if he fails to fire on those days, if the voters are the one who choose not to educate themselves about who's on the ballots. i also think voting can skew towards a euro invader if there is no clear cut horse that had a good year-that's when you see a horse like azeri take home HOY, since there wasn't one dominant classic-distance horse that year, and volponi was such a surprise in the classic.

I've never said the one race should have to be at the BC. Remember, I said I would have voted for GZ in 2005 and his one race was the Met Mile. The only point I was trying to make is that with no clear criteria, there's no way to know how a vote should go. The person that votes for a horse with one race in this country is no more right or wrong than the person that will only vote for the horse that competed in this country throughout the year. I remember when High Chaparral won for the second time, he did so with a dead-heat win in the Turf so it doesn't even take outright victories in NA to secure a title. Let me ask a question. There's no question that Rachel has had the most outstanding year of any horse in the country. But if Zenyatta were to be a field that included Summer Bird, Mine that Bird, Macho Again, Rail Trip, Einstein, Gio Ponti, Sea the Stars, Mastercraftsmen, and Rip Van Winkle (I know it's very unlikely all of them would be there but just humor me), wouldn't she prove that she's right there with Rachel if not better? So is the vote for best horse or best year? The debate for best year is over. The debate for best horse is still wide open.

since i think the vote should be for the entire years body of work, one race doesn't make HOY in my opinion. perhaps they should rename the award.
regardless of who zenyatta would beat (and keep in mind i absolutely do not believe she'll be anywhere on the track on saturday, but will run on friday) in this imaginary classic, the fact that rachel isn't there would mean it wasn't necessarily the best field assembled.

besides, regarding the thread title....that's a huge, huge IF.

In the scenario above Z beats everyone RA did and then some. In lieu of their actually meeting, it speaks volumes.

But just to play devil's advocate for a second, does it matter that she did it over what could be considered a foreign surface?

I mean, it's worth asking because I think you'd be hard pressed to think Raven's Pass would have beaten Curlin on a dirt track, right?

NT

That does come into the thought process.

Raven's Pass would have had a tough time beating the Curlin we saw throughout his 3yo season and through the World Cup. But the Curlin we saw those last few months of his career was nowhere near the same horse and I believe that Raven's Pass would have dusted him on any surface. I didn't see the surface beat a horse that day. I saw a horse that was tired and worn down and ran to the same mediocre level he ran at in the Woodward and JCGC. If he had been running against quality horses in those two races instead of the goats he was facing, we would have seen him beaten a couple of times.

I agree that Curlin was not the same horse towards the end of last year. But wasn't Curlin, a confirmed grinder who never really had a terrific burst of speed as his career wore on, asked to do something in the Classic that he was incapable of doing on any surface?

I thought Raven's Pass clearly the best horse that day but a big part of that was that he got the best ride. Dettori rode a perfect race and tactically knew that he had a chance if Curlin moved first.

I am just not willing to say that Zenyatta beating Summer Bird (a horse who trained so poorly over synthetic that his trainer gave him away) and Mine That Bird (who ran last over this very surface a year ago) is going to boost her HOY credentials because she will have beaten horses who Rachel beat as well.

NT

In addition, who knows which of the Europeans will take to it? I admit that I didn't even take the surface into consideration when making that argument. I have no idea why that slipped my mind. However, even beating Rail Trip and Einstein, who are both confirmed on the surface, would be more impressive to me than beating either of the Bird horses or Macho Again.

Jesus, Zenyatta has zero chance of winning the classic. She will be standing in her stall when the race is run. not to mention there is little chance that Sea the stars is coming either. If Kickin n Screamin wins on Monday and then wins the Distaff turf or whatever the call the fillies turf race is she champpion turf mare?

RA knows where her main rival is racing. RA knows where the championship races are this year. RA knows where the undefeated defending champion is. I know Curlin got spanked last year and Jess doesn't want to play with the best of the world again.

RA = east coast version of Peppers Pride.

You might want to consider never posting again.

Wow! RA is one smart filly to have all that knowledge inside of her!

why? i'd hate to never read hilarity like that again.

So I guess Zenyatta is the California verison of Peppers Pride?