Life and death? LOL

The good thing if you like Mine That Bird is....it's unlikely he'll be "ridden incorrectly" three straight times, so odds are Mike Smith will wait for the right moment this time....whether it's good enough or not.

I dont know why they would put Mike Smith on Mine that Bird again, when there are so many better jockeys already at Saratoga that will no doubt be rideless for the Travers. Coming to mind would be guys like Castellano, Chavez, Lezcano and C Velasquez. What is the huge appeal with Mike Smith that anybody would want to foot the expense of shipping him in?

Chavez?

Chop Chop is riding great right now. Finally injury free for the first time in a long time. Has had some nice winners at Toga.

Ya Chavez. Hes been riding great in the last few months. Turf and dirt. You give him a live mount and he'll be there at the end. He doesnt give 1/4 of the live mounts Smith gets. Hes not spoon fed 3/5 shots like Zenyatta.
Smith had his chance with the Bird and he didnt exactly give him the best of rides. Hes a good jockey, but is he worthy of being flown in...for any race?

Watch Smith's ride on Good Time Sally yesterday and tell me if you think that's a jock with over 20 years experience. Probably 99% of the trainers out there would think that Smith did nothing wrong (had the horse OUTSIDE) in what was an absolutely brutal ride.

Fair odds on this horse, with Smith up, in the Travers should probably be > 10:1.

:tro:

When or if Rachel Alexandra runs in the Travers, I would think the odds will be attractive for any of the the others if you plan on betting against her.

I like Summer Bird a lot. He really is a great looking colt. I thought his Haskell was way better then it looked. He will love the added distance and he really had zero chance in the Haskell with the race dynamics, not too mention Rachel. I want no part of Quality Road who will be looking to get 1 1/4 off a sizzling 6.5f.. These aren't the odd days when Pletcher's just ran off the screen, I would expect him to be a bit to keen early and fading late. This doesn't mean Quality Road suck just that it will be hard for him to peak in Travers.

:zz: Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

Life and death in the Preakness would have been a nose, but with another 16th of a mile, the result could have easily gone the other way.

The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.

I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY. My guess is middle of the standings at best.

:zz: :wf :zz: :wf

My guess is below Mike Luzzi, slightly above Morales.

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

From everything I have heard from people close to the decision makers is there is very little chance you'll see her in the Travers. Its between the Woodward and PA Derby. Of course I hope I am wrong and she shows up next weekend.

They say that her last workout was her best ever and it could be a huge mistake to wait 1 extra week to run her. Shes ready to run now. The Travers comes up as perfect timing. Would be a race for the ages.

You have to be careful with these words... lots of Rachel fans out there (myself included). But, I agree. I thought the same thing about Zenyatta a few weeks ago, but she overcame and often times the great ones do but I'd be willing to take my chances.

If you consider the Haskell... sure, the fractions were awfully quick, but Munnings held on for third. The difference between the Haskell/Preakness was there were no quality closers in the Haskell. In the Preakness, Mine That Bird put in a legitimate run and almost got there.

My ultimate opinion on all of this is that Rachel Alexandra should be in the Travers because it's the Travers. There's a Woodward next year for her. And plus, Quality Road, whom I believe is an extremely talented race horse, is the only one she hasn't beat and I would like to see the match-up. I know that Quality Road could be light on seasoning but that nagging "what if" is out there.

I get the Kensei argument and the stud value for winning a grade one, but Jess Jackson wrote a $10 million check, so the stud value and wishing the purses were higher stuff is weak in my opinion. Money is not a concern. Then again, he's a business man, and I can't fault that line of thinking.

Only in horse racing can the best horse have legitimate reasoning for skipping the biggest races. In any other sport the biggest events will have the biggest stars - guaranteed. Barring injury, the US Open will never not have Tiger Woods etc.

You think your horse Summer Bird could reverse that decision on Rachel? I mean he probably cooled out great after the Haskell considering he felt a good gust as she absolutely blew his doors off.

NT

How was his Haskel better than it looked? He's pushed around the track by Kent and is only able to clear the distance challenged Munnings late stretch. What dynamics? He had ZERO shot to win the race and ran where he should've, 2nd. He's supposed to be 2nd by default in that race. And, unless he does a disappearing act on the rail at the key point of the Travers, in others words, doesn't run when ALL the others are running, and is then able to last move them, he has ZERO shot. The Travers might just be the best race of the year for me. 1st I'll get to see the FAST QR punk out (unless the old Pletcher juice is restocked) and then, I'll get to see this plug, SB, get his punk ass kicked real good. It'll be a fine day in the BEYER FREE part of the handicapping world.

Just to clarify Travis and all RA fans, there was no ill intent intended with my post regarding RA's remarkable good fortune to date, I guess if you use the law of averages she cannot keep winning by the margins she is putting up, if we step back and examine the tracks and dynamics in her races she has had it relatively her way with the lone exception being the Preakness, mine you if not for a better ride by Smith she may have beaten . Don't get me wrong I am in the camp that RA is a great filly, do I think she is as good as the margins she is winning at, honestly I don't know, I do believe that if she does go in the Travers this will be the race that may truly defines her, this will be a true test for any worthy champion.

You are one of the sharper players/cappers on the net, so i always consider what you say. I just don't think the Preakness was close at all.


not only is Rachel better than her competition, but she also dictates the style to a degree. She can go faster than anybody else that hopes to compete. Unlike Zenyatta, who can conceivably lose vs. lesser horses if they run a tactical race against her, Rachel has to regress, or even less likely someone else has to reach her remarkable level. No one has really been at her level on dirt since Curlin's peak. Big Brown probably wasn't as good, even with as much as he overcame in the Haskel and Florida Derby.

In the Preakness Borel ended the race at the top of the stretch. She reached an insurmountable lead at that point and just had to finish, with the diminishing margin not really reflecting a competitiveness for MTB. It can be debated that Borel asked her for her final bid too early in the Preakness. And then that pace was so brutal with the chasers all collapsing so badly, I know being on the lead can at times be much easier than chasing the lead in a pace like that, but it still has to be considered a very hard pace to be on with MTB having anywhere from a moderate to extreme advantage in setup...

My logic is Summer Bird was taken out of his game in the Haskell, not to Kent's fault, he knew if he sat back and made one run it would have been for running for no better than 2nd. So he took a shot, the Travers is going to be far more favorable to him with the extra distance and the possible pace dynamics. RA is obviously a great horse, we will see or hopefully Kensai won't work well tommorow so she will be entered...how she will handle this field and track. The competition and tracks of Belmont, CD, and Monmouth presented no difficulties for her, if she goes next Saturday I think it's fair to say this will be her biggest challenge. All I know is Summer Bird is training well, and he had a good prep in the no chance Haskell, he's still improving, it will be interesting if he can close the gap on RA with a more favorable track and set up. Oddswise this is the time to try, if she wins you just tip your cap, go back to the dugout and admire a special horse.

Pace dynamics can never be underestimated, this isn't the best example but Exceller once beat Affirmed and Seattle Slew. Maybe she is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but for me I am willing to try beating her when I see a chance she will finally be tested. However this is all conjecture for now pending Kensai's work tommorow.

Why would beating Summer Bird and friends be such a big deal? Other then Quality Road and his bizarre 6.5f win, what makes the Travers such a biggie? Unless Quality Road is capable of a 115 BSf at 10f's the race is a matter of fact.. Face it she is just faster plain and simple..

It's not like she needs the lead..She has all the tactical speed needed so unless Quality Road gets a super soft 3/4's then how the heck is he going to deal with a horse that is plain faster and in better current condition to go 10f's?

I wasn't knocking you at all, I was being tongue-in-cheek with the be careful statement.

Simply put this is the ultimate test, speed in front, closers from back, presser's pressing at the classic distance 1 1/4 all at Saratoga.

Yea, that dude could never, ever, in the history of the sport, or in any future paradigm, prove himself in the great state of new york.

While the amount of money Rachel may earn is not important for Jackson's bank account, I think it is important for another reason. He already has the highest money earning male in American racing history and I have a feeling that having the highest earning female is what he's after and that is very important to his ego.

I wouldn't expect him to make a decision too soon on RA, he's probably too busy trying to aquire Careless Jewel right now after her Alabama. And you think I'm joking...

Any time a horse does something well that they aren't comfortable doing it speaks to talent level. Summer Bird was forced into running a way that could never suit he style heb=nce his Haskell was a nice effort.

So if I'm 5K runner and I'm running 5K against a 400M sprinter and I foolishly go out there early with him BUT because he can't even get a mile, I outlast him to the wire, as he basically collapses, YET he's able to stay with me until 4.85K, I'm to be applauded for a fine effort?:rolleyes: (Oh, and the rest of the field consists of 8 month pregnant 100M sprinters --- which is an apt analogy for the rest of the Haskel field.)


Surely you're kidding.

At least you're an advocate, it appears, of that very quickly growing new horse psychology handicapping methodology. The is were we try to guess whether a horse is 'comfortable' during the running of the race. I get a full dose of this BS from Donovan daily. Which provides my daily requirement of LAUGHING MY ASS OFF.

You want a real laugh ? Click on The Fatman's twitter page. It's him whining to himself about polytrack. The guy is clearly losing a ton of money at the track...as well as losing his mind.

In a 4 page thread of racing opinions, it's no surprise you don't have one... but the least you could do is use an ounce of reading comprehension for your critical attacks... it's too early to be drinking :o
TFM is FOR poly , not against
yesterday there was a $17 horse that was available for the woodbine cappers that fat man happened to nail. duh.

actually strike that , it's football season... 200pm eastern isn't that bad

Bobby....you really aren't this stupid in real life are you?

TFM is whining about polytrack. He whines that everyone should be betting tracks with poly, and makes poor attempts to knock NYRA and other dirt tracks.

This is called whining.

Please tell me you were kidding Bobby.....I know you still have ill feelings towards me because I made that stupidfecta joke about you...but let it go.

There are plenty of real sharp people to follow out there....I suggest you follow them instead of TFM to help your betting. TFM is useless.

extremely well put. Charitable Man with Dominguez is a very interesting change where I think CM's speed will finally be taken advantage of. Whether he can get the distance is another question. But going wide in all of his recent starts certainly hasn't helped him.

I know you're connected with Kiaran and I'm as big a Kiaran fan as anybody but Charitable Man does not belong with Grade I company. He should have been sent to Pennsylvania or somewhere else.

NT

I just don't understand the logic on running her in the Pa Derby. If Phila Park starts throwing her bonus incentives and such then Jess Jackson just looks like he's ducking to grab an easy extra money. I mean the guy sports himself as liking a challenge, how does going the Pa. Derby challenge her?

She doesn't race in the Alabama because their is nothing to prove in her division, fine I'll go with that, Running her in the Traver's proves very little because she already beaten the boys twice, so what does running her in the Pa Derby against lesser competition prove?

Outside of grabbing extra purse money, I fail to find the logic as it implies to Jess Jackson wanting to have a challenge.