This weeks action NOTE 2 Grade I's on Sunday

7/4/2009 United Nations S. I 11 Furlongs (T) 3+ Monmouth Park 4:00 PM
7/4/2009 Salvator Mile S. III 1 Mile 3+ Monmouth Park 4:00 PM
7/4/2009 Suburban H. II 10 Furlongs 3+ Belmont Park 4:00 PM
7/4/2009 Prioress S. I 6 Furlongs 3 Belmont Park 4:00 PM
7/4/2009 Dwyer S. II 8.5 Furlongs 3 Belmont Park 4:00 PM
7/4/2009 Firecracker H. II 1 Mile (T) 3+ Churchill Downs 5:00 PM
7/4/2009 Chicago H. III 7 Furlongs 3+ Arlington Park 5:00 PM
7/4/2009 American H. II 9 Furlongs (T) 3+ Hollywood Park 7:00 PM



7/5/2009 American Oaks Invitational I 10 Furlongs (T) 3 Hollywood Park
7/5/2009 Triple Bend H. I 7 Furlongs 3+ Hollywood Park

Look on the bright side pretty impressive that the two of you nailed the Mother Goose with Rachel Alexandra. Pretty dam good handicapping job if you ask me.

After the 2 scratches and no place betting, I had nowhere else to go. My main play was going to be Don't Forget Gil and hoping for a place and beat the 4.20 Rachel Alexndra would have returned. That strategy worked in the Vanity vs Zenyatta.

Is Vegas taking ACTION on this contest ??? :zz:

What are we doing about entries?

I'm up first. Question concerning scratches. If there is an entry 1-1a and you are only interested in the 1a would you be good with us specifying in our picks 1a and the horses name and getting the alternate in case of scratch... If you want the whole entry then specify 1-Entry

Mth 9 Salvatore Mile 3-Solar Flare alt 4-Kiss the Kid
Mth 10 United Nations 3-Brass Hat alt 2-Strike a Deal

Bel 8 Dwyer 1-Warriors Reward alt 6-Just Ben
Bel 9 Prioress 1a-Light Green alt 3-Heart Ashley
(1a must go otherwise Heart Ashley.. If both 1-1a go then I have the entry. This will be the Entry rule going forward)

Bel 10 Suburban 3-It's a Bird alt 2-Dry Martini

CD 10 Firecracker 2-Seaspeak alt 3-Wise River

Arl 9 Chicago 6-Choragus alt 3-Informed Decision

Hol 8 American 4-Monterey Jazz alt 1-Buenos Dias

Good Luck

MTH R9 - Salvatore Mile S. - #2 Smooth Air (Alt: #6 Two Step Salsa)
MTH R10 - United Nations S. - #2 Strike a Deal (Alt: #7 Presious Passion)
BEL R8 - Dwyer S. - #5 American Dance (Alt. #1 Warrior’s Reward)

BEL R9 - Prioress S. - #1A Light Green (Alt: #2 Luster)
BEL R10 - Suburban H. - #3 It’s a Bird (Alt. #6 Rising Moon)
CD R10 - Firecracker H. - #6 Passager (Alt. #2 Seaspeak)
AP R9 - Chicago H. - #6 Choragus (Alt. #3 Informed Decision)
HOL R8 - American H. - #1 Buenos Dias (Alt: #5 Whatsthescript)

HOL R8 - American Oaks - #5 Rare Ransom (Alt. #2 Magical Affair)
HOL R10 - Triple Bend H. - #11 Paul’s Hope (Alt. #6 Noble Court)

Up to date stats as of yesterday

HOL R8 - American Oaks - #7-Acting Lady(Alt. #14 Mrs Kipling)
HOL R10 - Triple Bend H. - #6 Noble Court(Alt.#13 Star Nicolas)

Good Luck!

Results

Next Weeks Action

7/11/2009 Princess Rooney H. I 6 Furlongs 3+ Calder Race Course 4:00 PM
7/11/2009 Smile Sprint H. II 6 Furlongs 3+ Calder Race Course 4:00 PM
7/11/2009 Azalea S. III 6 Furlongs 3 Calder Race Course 4:00 PM
7/11/2009 Carry Back S. II 6 Furlongs 3 Calder Race Course 4:00 PM
7/11/2009 Man o' War I 11 Furlongs (T) 3+ Belmont Park 4:00 PM
7/11/2009 Dance Smartly S. II 9 Furlongs (T) 3+ Woodbine 4:00 PM
7/11/2009 American Derby II 9.5 Furlongs (T) 3 Arlington Park 5:00 PM
7/11/2009 Arlington H. III 10 Furlongs (T) 3+ Arlington Park 5:00 PM
7/11/2009 Modesty H. III 9.5 Furlongs (T) 3+ Arlington Park 5:00 PM
7/11/2009 Hollywood Gold Cup I 10 Furlongs 3+ Hollywood Park 7:00 PM
7/11/2009 Royal Heroine Mile S. II 1 Mile (T) 3+ Hollywood Park 7:00 PM

No Dance Smartly. . .

Bel Man o' War 7-Midships alt 9-Gio Ponti

Cld Azalea 7-Kays and Jays alt 6-Going To The Sun

Carry Back 3-Truest Legend alt 1-You Luckie Mann

Princess Rooney 5-Pious Ashley alt 9-Marina Ballerina

Smile Sprint 1-Ikigai alt 4-Benny The Bull

Arl Modesty 6-Dynaforce alt 1-Pure Clan

American Derby 5-No Inflation alt 3-Giant Oak

Arlington H 9-Just As Well alt 11-Streamcat

Hol Hollywood Gold 8-Bullsbay alt 13-Magnum

Royal Herione 6-Gotta Have Her alt-3-Tuscan Evening

Good Luck!

CRC R7 - Azalea S. - #6 Going to the Sun (Alt: #5 Donttellmewhattodo)
CRC R8 - Carry Back S. - #2 Ask Joe (Alt: #5 Not for Silver)
CRC R9 - Princess Rooney H. - #8 Dubai Majesty (Alt: #4 B R’s Girl)
CRC R10 - Smile Sprint H. - #1 Ikigai (#4 Benny the Bull)
BEL R7 - Man o’ War S. - #6 Chinchon (Alt: #4 Marsh Side)
AP R5 - Modesty H. - #6 Dynaforce (Alt: #2 Tizaqueena)
AP R7 - American Derby - #2 Reb (Alt: #7 Vaquero)
AP R12 - Arlington H. - #13 Thabazimbi (Alt: #4 Recapturetheglory)
HOL R8 - Hollywood Gold Cup H. - #6 Dakota Phone (Alt: #13 Magnum)
HOL R10 - Royal Heroine Mile S. - #6 Gotta Have Her (Alt: #7 Lemon Chiffon)

Note my entry number is wrong in the Hollywood Cup it should read
4-Bullsbay

Not our best work yesterday...

Speak for yourself! I picked a winner this week!

Yes and it is the contest leader thus far as highest mutual.

Wow that's sad.

Listen; don't be so hard on yourself... The Pro's offer 3 or 4 choices. We are trying to get prices home. I often pass up who I think will win for who I think CAN win at a decent price.. I am sure you are doing the same... When all is said and done I still am confident I will have a flat bet win profit...
Remember and I don;t recall who qouted this.
"There isn't a man alive who paid his mortgage at 6-5"

I agree with everything you're saying. Obviously the sample size so far is too small to make anything of either of our results. I wish I could say my real bets were doing better, but I'd kill for a winning 5-1 shot right now.

Hang in there.... It'll turn your way it always does... Just don't blow out before it does...

I haven't been following your picks, either here or in general but showing a flat bet profit betting win is not as easy as you might think.

Of course, if you could do it spot playing, you should also be able to do it over the long term (at least theory dictates that much), which would put you at the upper echelon of players.

Until you've tried it, earning a positive ROI for steady selections might seem easy. It's not.

NT

Doing the Saratoga meet contest last year was a real eye opener. Only 3-4 out of 60 players turned a profit picking races over 36 days where they had thir choice of 36 out of 350+ races. I say from looking at that, there's little chance either of you show a profit.

This is a brutal game we play.

Spyder

Just curious. If you were handicapping it; what odds would you put on me returning a positive return.

7/18/2009 Robert G. Dick Memorial S. III 11 Furlongs (T) 3+ Delaware Park
7/18/2009 Delaware Oaks II 8.5 Furlongs 3 Delaware Park
7/18/2009 Jaipur S. III 6 Furlongs (T) 3+ Belmont Park
7/18/2009 Virginia Derby II 10 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
7/18/2009 Virginia Oaks III 9 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
7/18/2009 Arlington Oaks III 9 Furlongs 3 Arlington Park
7/18/2009 Swaps S. II 9 Furlongs 3 Hollywood Park
7/18/2009 A Gleam H. II 7 Furlongs 3+ Hollywood Park

Additional Stats

99:1

You very well may be right but I'll offer you an overlay, would you give me 40-1 ? Donation to the throughbred charity of the winners choice.

DEL R7 - Delaware Oaks - #3 Livin Lovin (Alt: #4 Careless Jewel)DEL R9 - RG Dick Memorial H. -* #6 Dyna’s Lassie (Alt: #9 Dress Rehearsal)BEL R9 - Jaipur S. - #7 Le Grand Cru (Alt: #5 Silver Timber)CNL R10 - Virginia Oaks - #3 Oh So Nice (Alt: #4 Excelente)CNL R11 - Virginia Derby - #10 Lime Rickey (Alt: #7 Hold Me Back)AP R9 - Arlington Oaks - #2 Hot Cha Cha (Alt: #3 Always in My Heart)HOL R6 - A Gleam H. - #3 Modification (Alt: #4 Silver Swallow)HOL R8 - Swaps S. -* #4 Misremembered (Alt: #2 Massone)

3:57 Delaware Oaks II 8.5 Furlongs 3 Delaware Park
4-Careless Jewel alt: 3-Livin Loven

4:51 Robert G. Dick Memorial S. III 11 Furlongs (T) 3+ Delaware Park
2-Jaunty Gale alt: 3-Trensa

5:14 Virginia Oaks III 9 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
10-Blind Date alt: 4-Excelente

5:17 Jaipur S. III 6 Furlongs (T) 3+ Belmont Park
4-Due Date alt: 7-Le Grand Cru

5:59 Virginia Derby II 10 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
1-Affirmatif alt: 10-Hold Me Back

6:03 Arlington Oaks III 9 Furlongs 3 Arlington Park
6-Peach Brew alt: 2-Hot Cha Cha

6:38 A Gleam H. II 7 Furlongs 3+ Hollywood Park
2-Coco Belle alt: 9-Evita Argentina

7/18/2009 Swaps S. II 9 Furlongs 3 Hollywood Park
7-Quindici Man alt: 8-Grazen

Can't post the updates due to the 39 KB restriction on uploads on this site... I guess they are stuck in a 1987 time warp..

I lead by 62.90 and am winning at a 24% clip with a 61% ITM.. I currently show a flat bet profit of 25.40

You are winning at a 15% rate with a 33% ITM.. With the fortunate scratch you are showing a flat bet profit of -7.5 and still are in he hunt to return a flat bet profit once you get hot.

7/25/2009 Coaching Club American Oaks I 10 Furlongs 3 Belmont Park
7/25/2009 Eddie Read H. I 9 Furlongs (T) 3+ Del Mar

5:17 Coaching Club American Oaks I 10 Furlongs 3 Belmont Park
3-Don't Forget Gill alt 2-Wynning Ride

8:35 Eddie Read H. I 9 Furlongs (T) 3+ Del Mar
6-Artiste Royal alt 5-Awesome Gem

Good Luck!

Coaching Club American Oaks - #2-Wynning Ride (Alt: #1 Livin Lovin)

Eddie Read H. - #2 Dakota Phone (Alt: #7 Richard's Kid)

Having those horses running in a G1 (the CCAO) is flat out LAUGHABLE. Given the history of the race, all the great fillies that participated in it, this is an embarrassment. And the only thing worse is betting on it.:rolleyes:

I know at least one of you guys might be a Platonist. And you know what Pato had to say about UGLY in his cosmology/cosmogony (and overall philosophy).

Could be worse had Rachel Alexandra been entered, betting against 1/9 shots is certainly not preferable.

To me, Hightop is very playable at respectable odds but as I cautioned earlier yesterday, The Ass-man's horses could be suspect while he is under a stay from a suspension which makes it interesting guess work.

I don't think it's a step-down from Wonder lady Anne L, Octave, and a 4 horse race last year.

NT