Do you really think Summer Bird is the most likely winner? You could really cash in at Bodog which is offering 30-1 on Summer Bird.

--Dunbar

here's hoping there's no one in the way, as i've seen him do that move without a clear path before.

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

the added distance should suit him perfectly. He's definitely one I'm not throwing out of any exotics I'm playing.

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

Fraud? Please expound.

I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).

NT

Chris Rosier, now I have been making a case of not betting Jockies but he would have tested my belief system had he been named the jock for the Belmont.

If Rachel Alexandra doesn't run, I will be very dissapointed...To me the value of SB should be good so in this instance I have no trouble declaring him now, he's going to be on my tix anyway.

I thought he was a pretty solid two year old and the Peter Pan was a good stepping stone coming off the injury and awful Bluegrass performance.

I agree with you though that I'd be looking at early speed types with Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird lining up thus far.

the bet
 

mr hot stuff
this is his moment
and for the all erotic exotic
mr hot stuff on top of choclate candy and rachel:{>:

Anybody?

God damnit. Here I am trying to take a 3 week break from this nonsense and you had to go and post this. May the lord strike you down with AIDS.

"seen less likely winners" is a far cry from declaring SB the winner. I like the horse and would bet him at a price myself, but that's different than thinking he's the most likely winner. He could end up a good bet (or even the best bet) from a value standpoint, but it would take a few defections to make SB the most likely winner.

--Dunbar

I call that a picture perfect prep second off a long layoff.

Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT

Me too. I don't get him at all.

coach ouch
but its mr hot stuff you have to worry about

the fact that he won or lost means absolutely nothing to me, whats important is that it sets him up perfectly to run a career best race next time out. you cant draw it up better than this.He may not win but the most likely result for him is a new top in the Belmont, something very few horses do.GL

You do realize Charitable Man's Peter Pan was the epitome of a perfect trip while sitting off a runaway leader getting the run of the race, and coming home in nearly 13 seconds for the last 1/8th of a mile even after running at a comfortable pace early while getting that perfect trip. But Charitable Man is the horse to beat in the Belmont and based off that he absolutely wants 1 1/2 miles...

How the hell do you figure his Peter Pan win sets him up to run a career best race? Is it the 3rd off a layoff that you really like?

I simply can't see how someone could take a perfect trip winner who had everything go his way and say in such a matter-of-fact way that he's gonna run an even better race in arguably the most grueling race in America.

NT

Me as well. Thought that race was set up on a tee for him sitting closest behind the speed freak Hello Broadway and getting first run on any closers, albeit there were no good closers in this race anyways. My contention is he probably would have still won this race but the margin and ease of victory were flattered by the set up. Imperial Council didnt exactly run the kind of race in the Met Mile that would have flattered Charitable Man.

I think there is a big chance Charitable Man goes off favored in the Belmont too.

Assuming Rachel Alexandra doesn't run, Mine That Bird is a cinch to be favored in the Belmont.

What's obvious to some is not obvious to others. And, here, it doesn't cost anything to be wrong.

Handicapping, a decidedly SOLO experience.

a modest improvement off his 2yo top in his second start signals a better top in his third and his style figures him to get another ideal trip any way you cut it.If i could bet he runs a new top i would bet w/ both hands.

I saw that too. Pretty funny stuff.

Not including Rachael Alexandra, who most likely isnt running, I think Charitable Man and Mine that Bird will be very close in the wagering, both very close to 2/1. Then Dunkirk at around 7/2.

The common thread is, of course, that Quiet Chris LOVES Charitable Man in the Belmont.

NT

See, this is why I need to be paying for someone else's opinion/data.

By forking over my money, I also get to join a cool, sort of exclusive club that uses all these groovy words:

bounce
form cycle
new top

Groovy chickarooney. This is fine ****.

Rather than developing my skill in the game I would then be developing my skill in interpreting the opinion/information of someone else. And I'd have the privilege/pleasure of discussing someone else's ideas on his forum. And there'd even be historical precedence: the Neo Platonists or the Aristotelian apologists, for example. They did much to further the ideas of their master.

Why in the world would I want my own opinion?:rolleyes:

because of my respect and admiration for the host, i thought this site might be different and worhtwhile.Guess not.

Another promising handicapping mind negatively influenced by the Fat Man. :rolleyes:

This is not a place for the thin-skinned but if you stand by your opinions (which it seems like you do) then you should stay. However, don't be surprised if an opinion deduced almost entirely from the sheets is derided by non-sheet players.

NT

So we should all agree with your opinion.....ya know.....out of respect for our host?

Just be sure you are checking back AFTER the Belmont, on the off chance that Charitable Man tanks.

Andy- Who are you favoring at this point (not knowing of course the exact field)?

Dunkirk seems OK to me.....as of now. Long way to go.

Thanks, as of now thats who I am leaning towards, and I dont really see that changing all that much. I think he can win with or without a lively pace. Hoping that Rachael runs but I dont think she will.

you're the (fat) man!

I like Charitable Man a little bit here. I know he got a perfect trip setting the pace behind that false pace in the Peter Pan, and according to trackus or the naked eye, he weakened in the drive of the Bluegrass by almost 2 1/2 lengths. If you want to use the polytrack to help guess about how he responds to stress, you have to balance his weak finish in the Bluegrass with coming into the race a little short, and the wide premature run to the first turn. Wasn't that bad considering.

sans Rachel, Charitable Man figures to be much the more talented forwardly placed runner, which can lead to the smooth trip he may need.