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-   -   Borel off Bird for Rachel in Preakness (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29541)

gales0678 05-07-2009 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
The purse money was crap.

It was about sport and good horsemanship...not statistics and money.


i was guessing at the purse money , but , today with the breeding business these owners want to get some of these great horses off the track and into the shed as quick as possible to start the cash register going

but it's pure non-sense to think horse of today can't run as many times in a year as horses from the old days

freddymo 05-07-2009 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
No it isn't but I am not going to get into the statistics, maybe 1 out of 20 go against the data that shows huge jump up efforts hurt horses, especially YOUNG ones < 4 years of age

I am not so sure her last was a huge effort for her. She ran a fig that was well within her comfort zone Scav.. It's not like she tossed a 123 at them. Remember she did beat dog biscuits and its not like she was used real hard the last 1/2 mile.. Ideally you wouldn't run her in 14 days but she isn't going to be running that much longer anyway..Remember they have to breed her to Curlin before his 2 year olds flop..lol

Dunbar 05-07-2009 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
This is such a bunch of b.s. and why we have paper tiger Champions.

Agree. See my avatar, for example.

Injuries happen all the time. It may be tempting to attribute an injury to a training decision, but I don't think that conclusion would bear up under any rigorous scrutiny. IWR was looking great in training leading up to the Derby, according to Mike Welch. The Pamplemousse and Quality Road also missed the Derby due to injuries, as did Midshipman and Vineyard Haven. Did all of those horses race too much?

Was Rachel Alexandra's Oaks run all that much more exerting than a workout?

--Dunbar

dagolfer33 05-07-2009 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
JD Acosta? What, no Gerald Almodovar?

Not for nothing, guys, but the way she jogged in the Oaks, I can't imagine she wouldn't be ready to come back for the Preakness.

There couldn't have been a better and more lucrative workout than the Oaks to prepare her for this race....you're correct.

philcski 05-07-2009 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
This is such a bunch of b.s. and why we have paper tiger Champions.

!!!

You tell it, girl. :tro:

MaTH716 05-07-2009 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I am not so sure her last was a huge effort for her. She ran a fig that was well within her comfort zone Scav.. It's not like she tossed a 123 at them. Remember she did beat dog biscuits and its not like she was used real hard the last 1/2 mile.. Ideally you wouldn't run her in 14 days but she isn't going to be running that much longer anyway..Remember they have to breed her to Curlin before his 2 year olds flop..lol

I agree with Freddy, she looked like she was in cruise control in the stretch and was still pulling away. The race almost looked like a public work. In my opinion (which means nothing), I don't think that the Oaks to much out of her tank.

Kasept 05-07-2009 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
As for Borel's horse whisper ways with Rachel, you may want to take that with a small grain of salt, I am sure any top flight jock would be fine and I am sure he loves riding her who wouldn't..

You never know Freddy.. It can take a ride or two to work out communication between horse and rider. Pat Kelly has told me a lot about difficult to ride horses with Naughty New Yorker as the specific horse on the topic. He isn't a horse you can throw any rider on...

During the Street Sense campaign, not that it necessarily applies the same way here, but Carl Nafzger also was very specific that Borel was his rider of choice for the Juvy/Derby/Travers winner because he was a guy that would communicate to the trainer the nuances he was experiencing on board. Nafzger wanted that so he could make adjustments in the training of the horse.

Don't disagree that they may be Ferraris and Cameros, but few of them have automatic transmissions.

geeker2 05-07-2009 09:33 AM

I hope they keep the jock selection suspenseful - just like the Dunkirk/POTN decision

:rolleyes:

Coach Pants 05-07-2009 09:35 AM

I'd like to see Jon Court ride Mine that Bird just to see his wife's huge ta ta's on Jockeys.

gales0678 05-07-2009 09:35 AM

steve - look at JD bailey he won of the biggest races of the year one time without ever being on the horse and even being able to talk to the trainer

Coach Pants 05-07-2009 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't disagree that they may be Ferraris and Cameros, but few of them have automatic transmissions.

Good lord I hope they're not using what I think they're using for the stick.

philcski 05-07-2009 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I'd like to see Jon Court ride Mine that Bird just to see his wife's huge ta ta's on Jockeys.

:tro:

But he can't win, he's a low percentage jockey.

freddymo 05-07-2009 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
You never know Freddy.. It can take a ride or two to work out communication between horse and rider. Pat Kelly has told me a lot about difficult to ride horses with Naughty New Yorker as the specific horse on the topic. He isn't a horse you can throw any rider on...

During the Street Sense campaign, not that it necessarily applies the same way here, but Carl Nafzger also was very specific that Borel was his rider of choice for the Juvy/Derby/Travers winner because he was a guy that would communicate to the trainer the nuances he was experiencing on board. Nafzger wanted that so he could make adjustments in the training of the horse.

Don't disagree that they may be Ferraris and Cameros, but few of them have automatic transmissions.

I have heard that Zito doesn't allow jocks to work his horses in the morning. I am not sure if it is true but perhaps his horses come with special equipment? There is no denying a chemistry forms between the the jock and the horse..

King Glorious 05-07-2009 09:48 AM

So two weeks is too soon to bring her back but the horses from the Derby can come back with one less day after running harder and longer?

johnny pinwheel 05-07-2009 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Are we all in agreement that Borel had a significant impact in Mine that Bird's Derby win? If so, this has to be a VERY big deal.

yeah, but the derby is the only triple crown race where a jockey can pull that move. if this horse were to get out last in the preakness and try that last up the rail deal on a fast pimlico track, hes got no shot. and in the belmont it happens like every ten years, if that and the closer usually comes wide off the turn there. calvin does well at CD but like someone said at the other tracks hes just another jock. face it,that horse may never get a better set-up, no matter who rides him. on form, the derby may be a total toss race. we will soon find out.

Bobby Fischer 05-07-2009 09:49 AM

jockeys are meaningless, i learned this in kindergarten

Travis Stone 05-07-2009 09:51 AM

I really doubt Jackson would spend $10 million just to sit on her for the Acorn. Though I feel the galloped home stuff is overrated, she barely even lifted a foot in the Ky. Oaks. I say the Preakness is a go!

Fans are funny. For one, we want these superstars to race and make headlines and try stuff... now we have the chance, and it's "Mr. Jackson, please don't run her..." Yadda yadda yadda.

gales0678 05-07-2009 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
yeah, but the derby is the only triple crown race where a jockey can pull that move. if this horse were to get out last in the preakness and try that last up the rail deal on a fast pimlico track, hes got no shot. and in the belmont it happens like every ten years, if that and the closer usually comes wide off the turn there. calvin does well at CD but like someone said at the other tracks hes just another jock. face it,that horse may never get a better set-up, no matter who rides him. on form, the derby may be a total toss race. we will soon find out.


johnny why won't MTB pair up in the preakness?

Rootdog1 05-07-2009 09:54 AM

Is it a big deal, yes. Is it suprising, no.

Again, I think Borel said MTB wont repeat and they can cruise to a nice G1 check in the preakness. No other reason to run her back this quick. Regardless of how easy you think she won, she runs hard and rest is needed. The question in my mind is can she win at 80%? I would say...easily.

Rootdog1 05-07-2009 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I really doubt Jackson would spend $10 million just to sit on her for the Acorn. Though I feel the galloped home stuff is overrated, she barely even lifted a foot in the Ky. Oaks. I say the Preakness is a go!

Fans are funny. For one, we want these superstars to race and make headlines and try stuff... now we have the chance, and it's "Mr. Jackson, please don't run her..." Yadda yadda yadda.


Hey, Yadda Yadda - what is the benefit of running her on two weeks rest after that effort. I agree take on the boys, but why not wait for a tired bunch of colts in the Belmont?

Scav 05-07-2009 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
Hey, Yadda Yadda - what is the benefit of running her on two weeks rest after that effort. I agree take on the boys, buy why not wait for a tired bunch of colts in the Belmont?

Forget the Preakness and the Belmont, why not have her ready for the Travers? I have no idea on this but how many times has a filly even tried the Travers, let alone won it, it can't be very many...

Now that would be historic (Given I am right about fillies not contesting the Travers)

http://www.nyra.com/Saratoga/Stakes/Travers.shtml

Link is a historic view of the Travers, are there any fillies on there?

Port Conway Lane 05-07-2009 10:01 AM

I vote Talamo

freddymo 05-07-2009 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Forget the Preakness and the Belmont, why not have her ready for the Travers? I have no idea on this but how many times has a filly even tried the Travers, let alone won it, it can't be very many...

Now that would be historic (Given I am right about fillies not contesting the Travers)

http://www.nyra.com/Saratoga/Stakes/Travers.shtml

Link is a historic view of the Travers, are there any fillies on there?

Are you a franchisee in Carolina BBQ? You pushing for a big gate for the boss man.

Scav 05-07-2009 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Are you a franchisee in Carolina BBQ? You pushing for a big gate for the boss man.

While I am serious, anything to help the boss man is a ok also :)

SniperSB23 05-07-2009 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Because horses that run huge efforts tend not to last. Look at IWR, he has a 8pt top, regressed 2 pts and is now pretty much has 3 hooves in the breeding shed....His type of injury is from RACING or over extension, which comes from huge huge efforts

That 8 pt top was in switching surfaces so is irrelevant. There is no way to know if the horse was exerting himself anymore running 8 pts faster on the dirt than he was spinning his wheels on the Pro-Ride. Had he jumped to an 8 point top on the same surface then it would be significant. Either way, there is no way you skip getting the Wood on your stallion resume (no pun intended).

Travis Stone 05-07-2009 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
Hey, Yadda Yadda - what is the benefit of running her on two weeks rest after that effort. I agree take on the boys, but why not wait for a tired bunch of colts in the Belmont?

In last year's Belmont Stakes, three horses were exiting the Preakness, while three others were exciting the Derby. The Derby horses outperformed the Preakness horses. The tired horses / Belmont angle is overplayed in my opinion.

We know Rachel Alexandra can handle 9 furlongs no problem, and judging by the way she finished, 9.5f should be no issue either. Her 108 Beyer in the Oaks is more than 10 points better than the runner-ups in the Derby. She didn't have a grueling race, the colts are weak, the purse is $1 million, it's a grade one, it's an American classic... it's a go in my opinion. If she flops, you can re-group for the fillies in the Acorn.

Furthermore, there are still some ?'s about who could re-surface in the Belmont which could make it a more difficult race than the Preakness.

freddymo 05-07-2009 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
While I am serious, anything to help the boss man is a ok also :)

I have a feeling it's one and done with the boys..Unless she is the best filly ever?

slotdirt 05-07-2009 10:16 AM

Vomit is official - Rachel has been transfered to the Assman. Shame on you, Jess Jackson.

Coach Pants 05-07-2009 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
In last year's Belmont Stakes, three horses were exiting the Preakness, while three others were exciting the Derby. The Derby horses outperformed the Preakness horses. The tired horses / Belmont angle is overplayed in my opinion.

We know Rachel Alexandra can handle 9 furlongs no problem, and judging by the way she finished, 9.5f should be no issue either. Her 108 Beyer in the Oaks is more than 10 points better than the runner-ups in the Derby. She didn't have a grueling race, the colts are weak, the purse is $1 million, it's a grade one, it's an American classic... it's a go in my opinion. If she flops, you can re-group for the fillies in the Acorn.

Furthermore, there are still some ?'s about who could re-surface in the Belmont which could make it a more difficult race than the Preakness.

Who? Quality Road? I doubt Jerkens would enter him off the injury and long break.

philcski 05-07-2009 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Who? Quality Road? I doubt Jerkens would enter him off the injury and long break.

I think there's a chance we see him on Belmont Day.

In the Woody Stephens.


12F off the injury would probably be too much to ask, even for the best 3YO in America.

-BT- 05-07-2009 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33
J D ACOSTA he does great at CT


if this was at 4.5f he would be my top choice, hands down

-bt-

Antitrust32 05-07-2009 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I think there's a chance we see him on Belmont Day.

In the Woody Stephens.


12F off the injury would probably be too much to ask, even for the best 3YO in America.


Rachel Alexandra??

SniperSB23 05-07-2009 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Rachel Alexandra??

She's with the Assman now so Phil will refuse to acknowledge that she had any talent prior to going to him and will blame everything on the Assman juicing her.

philcski 05-07-2009 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Rachel Alexandra??

Ok... 3YO Colt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
She's with the Assman now so Phil will refuse to acknowledge that she had any talent prior to going to him and will blame everything on the Assman juicing her.

Been on her train since last fall. Assman can't move this one up.

Travis Stone 05-07-2009 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Who? Quality Road? I doubt Jerkens would enter him off the injury and long break.

This was a minor point in my whole argument but yeah, though unlikely, QR... and don't laugh at me, but if Dunkirk heals-up (he stumbled really bad coming out of the gate) because like him or not, he ran one of the best preps this spring, Friesan Fire if he waits and heals-up. Regardless, the Preakness field is nothing to be scared about.

CSC 05-07-2009 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane
I vote Talamo

For MTB? I would go with Ramon Dominguez but I have no idea who Wooley will pick or who he has been associated with in his past. Ramon mostly because I see some similarities between MTB and Better Talk Now.

Travis Stone 05-07-2009 10:25 AM

I think the bottom line to all this is Jess Jackson and co. did not spend $10 million to sit on her and watch her train.

Coach Pants 05-07-2009 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
This was a minor point in my whole argument but yeah, though unlikely, QR... and don't laugh at me, but if Dunkirk heals-up (he stumbled really bad coming out of the gate) because like him or not, he ran one of the best preps this spring, Friesan Fire if he waits and heals-up. Regardless, the Preakness field is nothing to be scared about.

I can't help but laugh at Dunkirk. He's a p.ussy and always has an excuse.

Friesan Fire...don't think he goes.


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