5 now set. Join in the Dance, Miner's Escape, Charitable Man and Mr. Fantasy no longer interested, but Flying Private is added. Terrain deciding shortly, and Tesio show pony Tone It Down is now possible.

Confirmed:
1. Mine That Bird
2. Big Drama
3. Papa Clem
4. Hull
5. Flying Private
6. Take the Points

Likely/Possible:
Conservative
Sky Gate
Tone It Down
Terrain *(Decision due today)

Derby runners considering:
Pioneerof the Nile
Musket Man
General Quarters
Friesen Fire

Terrain is good for fourth, right?

That's actually not a bad way to approach the race...worked last year with Racecar Rhapsody. :)

Flying Private? Really?
I guess we shouldn't be shocked after the Going Wild nonsense from a few years ago....but come on.

You don't think 8 starts in 17 weeks is a good idea for a horse with declining form? :rolleyes:

D. Wayne Woolley Jr. Lukas isn't affraid to run them or put them in crazy spots.

Heck - sometimes they even jump up and come through and he's called a genius and stuff. Most of the time though ... it's not so pretty.

I don't think it's much of a change of plans, because the Preakness was definitely on the table right after the Derby Trial. With that, unless between now and then they had completely backed off of him not expecting to race at all again anywhere anytime soon, the change of plans doesn't bother me. It seems like was on the radar to begin with, and like you say, obviously Mine That Bird makes it a whole lot more enticing.

He and Cash Refund have been my two most exciting horses of 2009, and neither has let me down yet.

DALE ROMANS (trainer of first-place finisher Hull) – “I loved what I saw out there today. He relaxed off the pace, and when the rider asked him to run, he really exploded. He’s as good as anybody around right now. He’s opened up in all three of his races. We entered in the Lexington but we had this race as our backup. Everything had to be perfect if he ran in that race (Lexington), because he was coming back so soon after the Turfway race (on April 2), and when he drew post 12, we didn’t hesitate to scratch him and point for this. We’ll take a look and see what happens in the Derby, who goes on from there and who doesn’t. The Preakness is a possibility for him right now.”

it sounds as tho musket man will be there. but no belmont-can't say i disagree with that strategy.

Didn't Lukas have one in this weekend that surprised? Not Orthodox surprised, but surprised nonetheless?

Tone it Down? That performance on Saturday left a lot to be desired...

Just like there are(were) Golden Rules of Handicapping the Derby, the Preakness has some, too, just but a few.

The 105+ Beyer achieved in a route pre-Kentucky Derby(which only I Want Revenge ,Dunkirk and Quality Road had achieved), dips to a 104 par for the Preakness. Mine That Bird qualifies, as would Fresian Fire if he were able to run. Fresian Fire is also a big Preakness pick due to the frequency of Kentucky Derby ml and/or post time favorites returning to win the Preakness

Looking at Mine That Bird's current pp's, he either freaked in the slop or due to another reason, perhaps the crowd.

maybe he thinks the best horses in the country will not be making the race, and hull stacks up well vs who can/will show up?

I much prefer the buzzer theory. :)

Gotcha -- so basically they changed their mind twice in a week, because I am pretty positive there was another article somewhere around Sunday talking about the Preakness too.

Either way, it makes me think he'll be ready to go, since I'm not quite sure what they would have done with him in those three or four days that would make him all of the sudden rushed into the Preakness. Sounds like they had a couple options on the table and have just had a tough time deciding which one they wanted. If they had decided next Wednesday that they'd like to go, I'd be a bit more concerned.

If he loses, my guess is that it will have just about everything to do with the fact that he doesn't handle two turns well or that he just isn't quite good enough, and just about nothing to do with the fact that they went Preakness-Stephens-Preakness in a matter of less than seven days.

If I owned Hull I'd go... after that Derby result I would likely send any horse with a hint of ability. Not that I necessarily like him as a bettor, but as an owner, it makes a lot of sense.

I think my stock answer for all comments regarding horse placement will be... "Hey, if Mine That Bird can do it..."

If Hull is confirmed, I really like him in this spot at first glance.

I think Mine That Bird will repeat simply because everyone is dismissing him again. That and this 3 year old crop is suspect not on ability, but desire to win.

The derby winner should not be discounted. Just what he did on the off track, beating the best 3yos in the country by 7 lengths, should make him the post time favorite, but he won't be. All the experts will think it was a fluke, But this is no fluke. This is one talented horse.

"Flying Private, the last-place finisher in the Derby, will run back in the Preakness, trainer D. Wayne Lukas told Pimlico officials Tuesday.

"We didn't get what we expected to get in the Derby," said Lukas, a five-time winner of the Preakness."

lol

LOLZ

Let's touch base again in 10 days or so, ok?

I'm leaning more toward this way.Instead of drawing a line through the Derby win I'm drawing a line through the previous eight races.

FYI... Have to get my Preakness analysis in today (!?!?), and based on communication I received last night, it looks like TAKE THE POINTS is running... Not 100% confirmed, but the info likely comes from the Pimlico racing office.

Which ones are those?

I'm starting to think that also. In the form on Derby day on that page that they analyze the horses it said something like

Mine that Bird : with all the top horses in this race, the bottom feeders are really weak, like this one, no chance

and the other guy wrote : he'll most likely make someone happy as he's the favorite to finish last..

then of course what was said on this site..

Pretty much think if all this dissing keeps up he's a shoe in for the win..

including his four wins?

just think how much more this horse would have looked better in those 4 races if a former NYRA jockey wasn't riding this horse last year in CAD

understatement of the year.

They had to at least have expected 18th.

Yes including his four wins because none of what he did prior to Saturday even remotely comes close to what I saw him do in the Derby. He got an amazingly clean trip on the best part of the racetrack but STILL there was nothing in those prior races to indicate he could do what he did even under the best circumstances.

This would have sounded crazy 5 days ago, but if Mine That Bird is around 10-1 in the Preakness, I think I'll play a POTN/MTB exacta box, and a sizable win/place bet on MTB. The more I look at the derby, the more I think it may not have been a fluke.

I think the horse is a cinch for third in the Preakness.

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

:tro: :$:

fluke - a stroke of luck
good fortune, good luck
fortune, luck - an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that leads to a favorable outcome;

POTN and MTB ran the best races in the derby in my opinion, there will have to be a new shooter come in to upset these 2. PC and MM were okay I guess, they are what they are....

I'm counting on that opinion...otherwise there is no rhyme or reason taking MTB at anything less than 8-1.

Marty,

I'm sorry... Not trying to be flippant or insulting, but please try to restructure this into a comprehensible sentence. I've read it 8 times and have yet to decipher its' intent. I'm confident it includes our neighbor to the North ('CAD'); Chantel Sutherland ('former NYRA jockey') and Mine That Bird ('this horse' x 2).

Other than that, I'm stymied.

steve - the wording is bad , i tried to edit it 1x and botched it again, i am paranoid about using the edit button too much on one post because of comments from the peanut gallery

what i'm trying to say to lori is this - chantal rode the horse last year in CAD , maybe if a better jockey was on MTB in the WO races he would have even won by more in those races and thus looked better in the form

she a great looking gal , no question about it , but there was a reason that she had to move back to CAD no? was she getting a lot of business down here? there were some pretty crazy rides by her down here at NYRA , i think even some people pointed it out on this board. Did i watch all the races at Wo for MTB no , i can only specualte that maybe she won races because the horse was simply the best , but , maybe another jock would have moved MTB up even more