Every single horse in the race needed to run a career high Beyer to beat Mine That Bird Saturday except for Dunkirk.

Before Kentucky Derby, 19 possible outcomes -- now, only Mine That Bird can possibly win Triple Crown. Odds are definitely against it happening this year, or any year.

I hope Mine That Bird is favorite in 12 days! I am Big Drama fan and his connections may enter him in Preakness. So, I could get more value for my opinion (if it is correct one).

And, several new "shooters" will definitely appear for Belmont Stakes. Twelve furlongs is big task for any 3-year old thoroughbred -- colt, filly, gelding or ridgling.

Finally, at least we know MTB is not a breeding play. So, if he is real deal, we will see him at age 4 and beyond. I see that as very positive story if it should unfold in that manner.

Mine That Bird drastically changed tactics in the derby, and he was a different horse. I'm not saying he is likely to be the next triple crown winner, but I do think it is worth noting that perhaps he was ridden for the first time in his career the way he wants to be ridden. In retrospect, I went back and looked at his last 3 races and I think most would agree he was ridden rather peculiarly. I'm not summarily dismissing him at this point of time.

In the Sunland Derby he was off to a decent start after the first quarter- they went too fast up front and he was off the first group maybe just a tat too forward...
And then Lambert went to **** after that, for some reason he thought they were too far off the pace and pumps through a 2nd quarter that ruins all the setup advantage they had ...
Then he went and capped it off by racing to the far turn rather than the finish line:tro:
Textbook horrible ride.
But Still, grade 3 animals

More importantly he may have only one run, so the Jock has to time his run. Better Talk Now was like this, only when Dominguez got on him that he started to win all those grade 1's. Rarely a Jockey makes this much impact on a horse, but Borel did and it is not solely for the rail ride.

That come-from-the-clouds running style obviously worked to perfection in the Derby ... but it usually doesn't translate into a very high win % over the long run.

There probably won't be another 19 horse field he lines up in where you know there will be a honest pace, however he has excelled on synthetics and usually that type of track is much fairer to closers. Looking at his past p's from Woodbine he wasn't ridden that far off the pace either so who knows if he even showed his best there.

maybe they will enter him in graded turf races at saratoga as MTO...

he can win a few of those and you know half of the turf races are taken off the turf at toga..

Look out for T Pletch to steal this training angle next year-


1. Drive his horses around Kentucky for 21 hours
2. Open the trailer gate
3. Watch 'em run out of their skin

i wouldn't be surprised if pletcher didn't even know how to back a trailer.

Todd grew up with horses, I'm sure backing a trailer wouldn't be a problem. :rolleyes:

just saying that he's got hands for all that...

lady lives here who rides barrels every wknd, has been around horses her whole life....can't back a trailer.

i agreed with you but said it makes for a great novel, just pure fiction by me. I have no proof or am accusing his owners or trainers, just a conversation piece. And i still don't believe it.

Am I the only cynical one still waiting to see the final test come back on the winner's blood sample?

That would be the final nail in the coffin for the sport.

has the purse money offically cleared?

no sir several of us has mentioned it, but surely MTB guys are smarter than that, we'll see.

if the impossible/ unthinkable became reality and he came down , would POTN still be running for the triple crown or if you move up on a dq then it doesn't count?

POTN would be declared official winner,purse money, and record, same as a dq

no it wouldn't....and how many nails does a coffin take anyway?? :D

You really think that the sport wouldn't take a tremendous hit? You would have a horse that was juiced up (I'm not saying he was and Im not saying it never has happened) win the derby and pay balloons, be DQ'd and the only money that would change hands is reguarding purse money. What about all the bets, tickets and potential life changing scores for the people that would have cashed if the race was legit. I really believe that any intergrity (or at least what the sport has left) would absolutley vanish. People would look at the sport as a rigged game, kind of the way I look at boxing, jai alai and harness racing at certain tracks. People will think it's a complete sham.

Thinking about it, I guess the die-hards would still wager and watch no matter what. But I'm talking about the novice/on the fence fans that go to the track couple times a year and even just bet the major races type. This sport needs to broaden it's fan base. A DQ here could be the thing that drives people away from racing. It would be more bad press for a sport that doesn't need it. It's a hard enough game to win when it's a level field and now they will realize that the field isn't so level.

has it - does anyone know?

has baseball?

how many bettors say they take the trainer into consideration, and wager accordingly?

did the sport die after dancer's image? or more recently, after eight belles when suddenly steroids were all the rage?

besides, if you keep the die hards, how would the sport die? the once a year or novice cappers aren't the ones fueling the purses.

Let's be honest here, guys, that horse could be hopped up on clenbuterol, some -ain painkiller, steroids, a milkshake, and some good, old-fashioned cocaine and there wouldn't be a DQ even if the blood test came back as 82 percent whiskey.

I am still waiting for the blood results too.

Fact of the matter is, nobody knows anything until after Baltimore. Anything else is just speculation. The Derby proves that essentially no one knew anything about this horse. If he won the Triple Crown it would be the most improbable turn of events in history.

Hell, if he wins the Preakness, it might be the most improbable event in history.
The Triple Crown would be like cataclysmic. He'd be a modern day Seabiscuit.

Yep, the guy who's 1 for 32 this year is a HUGE juicer...obviously. :rolleyes: Not to say though that we shouldn't be looking for reasons the horse ran that way...Beyer was right IMO...perfect storm. I just don't think he was juiced. If he was and it comes out that way...I will admit to being wrong.

No, but people don't bet baseball. It seems like people only care about stats.

Dancers Image was a generation ago and as sad as the Eight Bells tradgedy, it didn't affect wagering and payouts. Do you think that there would be no fallout from some of betting public reguarding a possible DQ after the fact?

You are right about the die hards. But I do think it would hurt as far as broadening the fan base.

I asked one of my friends the question. He's a gambler and plays the races once in a while. Unfortunatley the answer I got was, he will continue to play, because he's already on the assumption that the game is rigged anyway. Not exactly a ringing endorsment for the sport.

I guess some people might look at it as I looked at Jai Alai. I thought it was rigged, but I still enjoyed going. There was always a chance that I could be on the right side of the rig. Overall there is nothing good that would come out of a positive test resulting in a DQ of the Kentucky Derby winner.

To think that the only way anybody thought Mine that Bird would be in Baltimore three days ago was to do one of those Homicide: Life on the Streets tours.

sure they do.

as for nothing good coming from it-sure there would. having a drug positive in a big race that gets national exposure would probably provide the impetus for real changes in drug testing and policies-and most importantly, real change on punishment for violators. this sport seems more resistant to change; it tends to be reactionary. am i saying i want a drug positive? no. but i don't think it would be impossible to overcome by any means. sometimes it takes a real hard smack in the face to say 'hey, this isn't working'.

People dont bet baseball?

Obviously people bet baseball. But for instance tonights Yankees Red Sox game. What percentage of people either at the game or watching it at home have wagered on it. Versus, How many people on Saturday wagered on the race. Percentage wise I don't think it's close.
Sure there have been times where players that have supposedly cheated have affected the outcome of games, but it's also a team sport and so many things happen is the course of a game. Plus it seems that there were many guys not playing by the rules, so sometimes it probably evened out. I have to admit that I really never gave the betting side of baseball any thought. Just because I thought that the betting intrest/action in baseball wasn't that great.
The point I was trying to get across was, if a positive test came back and the horse was DQ'd. Then some of the betting public would cry foul that they were cheated and the wrong people got paid. It wasn't a team they bet, it was a horse. Who got duped out of a win and a payout for them by a horse who won illegally. Not good for the sport on the smallest of stages (i.e. 5k claiming race at Philly park on a Monday), but possibly devestating for a sport on their biggest day of the year when the whole world is watching.

Positive drug tests are a very small part of this sport. There's very, very few of them. And they are nearly all for miniscule legal medication overages that couldn't possibly affect a race outcome.

Do they catch all of it? No, we know of some things that still need tests developed, and we know some things we can't find.

There is a bigger, and I think more important question of how often some tracks really test, how many horses they test, the completeness of what they test for, etc. That national racing czar, uniform rules, is what is needed.

But thinking that the majority of horses are not running clean, are running on some magic secret hop-up juice made by mad chemists that know more than every other chemist in the world (the ones making up the tests) is ridiculous.

I say the vast majority of horses in racing are running clean.