I just wondering why MTB was only 50/1.... in a big Derby Day field it seems to me he should of been a lot longer than 50/1...only angles that seem to make any sense to me might be ... Canadian backers and/or Birdstone fans... either way still seems he should have been a lot longer than 50/1

Oh my...


yeah.

























































:wf

look how many people seemed to have him. of course all those picks are posted after the race ran....

That's a good question and I guess he probably would. The figs actually worked fairly well, under difficult circumstances, if you take out the winner and look at second through fourth. Those horses ran pretty much to their Beyer figs.

Given the public scrutiny, I imagine Beyer Associates likes to see their numbers confirmed.

i'm liking mustket man's move late yesterday. should i expect him to do well next out, or should i just completely forget the entire race?

Thanks for the answer.

Far from killing the sport, it gets people talking about the sport. Several friends who aren't racing fans and who didn't even watch the race called me after seeing the stretch run on the news. All they could talk about was how
exciting the race looked and how the horse paid over a $100. I doubt they would have been as excited if Calvin had pulled a wire job and the horse had held on by a nose.

Mine That Bird beat Advice at Sunland. Advice won the Lexington.

It's not like Mine That Bird was facing claimers, it may have been Sunland but good horses shipped in for a $600k race.

Just as in music, racing has its one hit wonders. Anyone heard from Da' Tara lately? Did he ever win another race?

Given the number of races run worldwide, longshots will crop up in graded events. It is just another fact of the game. Would any handicapping angle that I use ever tap Mine That Bird as winner -- let alone, Kentucky Derby winner? The answer is no. If class was mid-level claimer/optional allowance at LaD or FG, I could tab MTB as possible play.

Does anyone have early Breeders' Cup Classic line for MTB? :zz:

They are historically a great indicator. But historically and every single time are two very different propositions. It is horse racing. It is what is so exciting, humbling, frustrating and ultimately wonderful about the game.

have you compared giacomos record and connections coming into the derby to this horse?

nope. but until yesterday, giacomo was the second highest payout in derby history. now, he's third. in that regard, they are very similar. giacomo winning didn't prove detrimental, and mine that bird won't either.

who said anything about killing the sport?

they may have paid similarly but i do not believe the situations are similar

they're very similar. a horse no one gave a shot in hell to win, did just that. don't you remember the immediate aftermath of that race giacomo won? lol people were pretty horrified. it was hilarious.

if anything, things like yesterday are a good thing. it showed once again that you can be lucky rather than good, and you don't have to be an oil-rich sheik or be able to afford pletchers day rate to win a big race. this is the only sport that you don't have to have mark cubans bankroll in order to be a participant.

Dick Burch's gaping hole had him.

yeah its nice about the "giantkillers" angle, but it doesnt make the heavy rollers bet any more next year. i venture to say they will bet less

Maybe you didn't say killed, but "this will be one of the most single telling events to destroy the handle of racing for years to come" is a pretty severe injury.

i never said the horses were similar. however, when i read that the fact a 50-1 shot was going to reduce handle, i compared yesterdays race result with giacomos-due to the final odds only.

i'm not saying bet-wise. the thread began with a post saying a horse winning at 50-1 would reduce handle, and had made a mockery of the sport. i disagree, and used giacomo to illustrate that horses have paid the same in years past, yet the sport, and the handle, survived the occurrence. that's all i wanted to illustrate by referring to giacomo.

I am the one who started the thread and I never mentioned the odds, it has nothing to do with that

MTB's win both showed the beauty of the sport while at the same time making a mockery of it as well

I was thinking the same thing today about the odds of this Derby and discussing it with a friend. I didnt see many horses on the board yesterday that were actually good win bets. Certainly I would have loved to have my $200 win ticket on the horse who won and collected 10K, but 50/1 was a huge underlay (if there is such a thing at 50/1) on the winner when you think of the fact that Giacomo was much more accomplished and competitive with top horses than Mine the Bird, and yet pretty much the same price. Mine that Bird should have been over 100/1.

The horse I bet was a terrible price at 12/1- Hold me Back. General Quarters and Chocolate Candy were equally if not worse bets at 9/1. Friesan Fires was a huge underlay at 7/2 and so too was Dunkirk at 5/1. Papa Clem was a puzzling 13/1. Desert Party was a decent stab at 14/1. Thats about the only horse I thought was actually a good price.

If Borel had been on Hold Me Back, and gotten the same trip ... ? HMB made the duplicate move MTB did, only it started after the first turn on the backstretch, and therefor lasted only to midway through the second turn.

I didnt like Kent moving like that so soon. Hold me Back is a one run closer. That move reminded me of the Street Sense move and he isnt that kind of horse where he can win a race in the middle. I would have rather have him made that move on the far turn, but Kent knows better than me and probably thought it was his best chance. He wasnt winning that race yesterday. I made a horrible bet in a race that was a horrible betting race.

Before the days of commingled pools, it was interesting to see the differences in win payoffs, especially among the different regions.

Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?

yep. but this isn't hockey.

2 yr old champion in Canada, who couldnt beat mules in New Mexico

Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.

Better just to chalk this up to a stupid fluke

Nevermind how slow his Candian wins were - the horses he beat in those races stink.

Exactly. We'll see. Right now I'm going with, "This was your two minutes of fame, kid, enjoy"

Sports Illustrated put Mine That Bird's Derby victory on the cover this week. I think this is the first time since Smarty Jones that horse racing has been the cover sport. And a lot of my non-racing fan friends have been talking about it- hell, the bartender at the wine bar I was at last night mentioned the $9500 price tag thing (not exactly accurate, but he knew it). For whatever reason, Mine That Bird has people aware racing is going on and seeing it in a positive light. That's a good thing, any way you look at it.

one person at work mentioned the race. everyone else is asking me about hockey.

I thought only implausible things happened on polytrack?

Yes, I was sorry to see that edge go away. There were some instances when you could have gotten a guaranteed win by betting all the entries, by choosing the best odds among Cal, NY and KY. The Cal horse would inevitably be bet down in Cal, boosting the odds of the East Coast horses, and the East Coast horses would be bet down in NY and KY, boosting the price on the Cal horse(s).

--Dunbar