:rolleyes:

Post time favorite for you and alot of others in the Derby....

I don't like Mullins. I don't particularly care for the connections. But I really, really like the horse.

I felt extremely comfortable with him on top of my tickets. Now I'm back to the drawing board.

Damn, time for another cup of coffee and a smoke.......:confused:

I wouldn't hesistate to bet I Want Revenge, Quality Road, The Pampelmousse, Rachel Alexandra or Old Fashioned had they been the only of the five to show up.

It's now like a who's who lineup of horses whom I don't think are the five best chances to win this race from this crop ... and with an off track and confusing pace scenario as well.

If you look at Moss pace figures - six furlongs is the pace call for me in a 10f race - and on Moss number Dunkirk has the outright best last out fig at the pace call both LAST TIME OUT and TWO STARTS BACK!!

My pace numbers don't have Dunkirk with a double fig on the field .. but I have him about as fast as anyone for 6fs as well.

Obviously there are no pace figs for Regal Ransom - and he's probably faster.

I realize Dunkirk won't be on the lead after six furlongs no matter what everyone's pace numbers say ... but it goes to show you how messed up the pace picture is - as well as the race is.

Joe's real likable and will get many other chances, still to bad.

Fun times!

so, now who's your pick?

I think Atomic Rain has a chance to hit the board if the track is sloppy. Call me crazy.

I guess you never saw Goto Del Slow"s Kentucky Derby.

your post pretty much is where i'm at, other than having a smoke. i thought i want revenge was the best one coming in, but just chose not to think about his human connections.

I think he is a better horse than WSB. Will run okay.

Dunkirk is who I picked 2nd...

But I don't really trust him.

me neither. his trainer doesn't exactly give you a reason to pick him either.
i think if i was at the track, i'd be throwing money at desert party.

seriously, i'd have to sit down and rethink the entire race-but since i'm not able to bet, i'm just going to sit back and watch. it's not worth the effort.

horses drop out every year, but this is the worst in my memory regarding the calibre of horses that have scratched.

OK Coach - but I still like you YOU ARE CRAZY :p

The Racing Gods won't let me get my money

I work all day and don't get paid , Gimmie MY MOney! like my man archie shepp says

pamplemousse- no shot at superfecta would have been less than 10-1

quality road - would not have won and less than 7-1

IWR - would not have won and been a co-favorite

Friesan Fire - my choice for months , all the so called expert clowns underestimating him, now everyone picks him :wf:wf

Uh oh, I hope Beyer has a contingency plan. I do feel bad for Talamo though.

I feel a lot worse for Beyer.

It's so easy to say this when they are not running. :rolleyes:

Was IWR the only vet scratch? All the others made it thru right

Obviously - it seems like every little thing has gone FF's way over the last three weeks ... a ton of speed is gone, sloppy track, he won the post position draw - post 6 with five slowpokes to your inside on a track where the rail was good yesterday is a DREAM.

And Rachel Alexandra .. who I thought was more impressing running the same track and distance on the day of FF's clear cut best lifetime race ... she put on a total exhibition yesterday that really makes it look even more like it's no shame to be slightly less impressive than her at your best.

I'm still betting against him ... and don't trust FF .. but he looks WAY more attractive now.

it doesn't change the fact he's been off seven weeks, and no races past 1 1/16th...but several horses now step up and look better than they did before the defections.

The winter book favorite is out. The horses likely to be first and second choices are out. More examples of why you can't promote races in advance.

The three horses most likely to be the favorites:
-Haven't run in seven weeks and never been beyond 8.5f
-Never won a stakes race in his career
-Never run a single race on dirt

And the best 3yo in the country, the most exciting horse in the country at the moment......ran in a workout yesterday because her owner thinks fillies should run against fillies.

I think he does deserve to be the favorite now.

Hard Spun was off six weeks for the same trainer.

I'd consider betting a horse like West Side Bernie ... but the problem is there's no pace for him.

It'll be interesting to see who checks on the horse while Mullins is on vacation in Hawaii. That "convenient" suspension became a whole lot less convenient now.

So do you pass on all three angles and look deeper (Papa Clem)

Shiek Mo must be relieved...he didn't have to buy off his competition, at this rate they are practically handing the Derby to him.

Ral Ayers - Mullins asst - won at a 22% clip with a $3.69 ROI at Santa Anita when Mullins served his '08 Mepivicaine suspension.

yeah, but i think hard spun was a better horse-do you think lack of racing at 9f is a factor at all for FF?

the only knock i had against barbaro was the five week layoff-he handled that just fine. so maybe i'm just looking for reasons not to like friesan fire.

hell, it's wide open. i even conceded a few days ago that dunkirk belongs-considering the horses now in the gate.

I can't believe I'm going to bet Regal Ransom now. . .

the trainers usually have no problems having an asst take over-jorge lara is a perfect example of that.

It's tempting - I know - but I think the win last out was bias aided.

I'm thinking hard about trying Desert Party now - just wish he wasn't breaking from stall 19

he's got a legit shot. depending on the track today, he could pull a 'lion heart' but manage to hold on...
the sheikh may finally get his elusive prize. i sure hope not.

:D

My condolences to those who were holding 58-1 tickets on I Want Revenge in the first pool.

Sir,

Will you kindly step away from my horses, Dunkirk and Desert Party.

You've been the kiss of death thus far.

xoxox

it most likely was, the connections say so.

lol
the argument could now be made for picking about 1/3rd or 1/2 the field.

I know ... the asst's always have about the same win percentage .. and a MUCH higher ROI ... betting horses of suspended super trainers .. especially at the cheaper tracks ... is a very good angle.

At least RA didn't scratch!!

What do you think about Modification in the Distaff? I think she could run huge at a price if the track ends up being a swamp.

I'm hoping this race is bias aided too. . . Using Desert Party too - I no longer feel like I have any clue in this race

She's Wonder Filly!