Got just as much of a shot as POTN ;)

but didnt half a sandwich say potn would be off the board?:D

I can't believe you call Jon White an idiot, that tells me you know less than zero. This man is devoted,avid and professional about his job in racing and always trys to get the best info he can all year, not just on his derby pick. He is one of the best ambassadors racing has to offer. BY the way who is your pick for the derby ?

Picking a colt to win the triple crown who hasn't raced on dirt is bizarre,perhaps idiotic? I am sure he isnt an idiot, the opinion is without merit, he might have a ton..

Wow.
What a high wire act.
Edge of the Grand Canyon type stuff.

I feel most of us are over handicapping the race, except for top 5-6 horses we know if anything else wins it will be because of racing luck in their favor. If POTN wins then the never raced on dirt theory will not be talked about next year. it's coming maybe not this year but this factor will fade . It hasn't happened yet because maybe a horse good enough in the last 5 years has not showed up from syn-trk only races. Within a few years the top horses will have to be able to run on both with BC and other top races moving around to the non-dirt tracks.

professional handicapper and gambler? i don't think hes either one. hes not an idiot but any gambler worth a dime never talks like its a sure thing. thats rule number one and why they call it gambling. i love when people come on here and on tv or the paper and talk a horse up so much thats its freakin batman , spiderman and wonder woman all tied up in one. it always tells me to look around. they all lose at one time and its best when the odds are short and everyone is talking "cinch". i've been gambling for a long time and horses rarely, rarely go undefeated or live up to all the crap talk. my biggest days have come at the expense of easy goer, smarty jones and big brown. when someone comes up with a system of "sure things" let me know. i sure don't think this guy has one !

I certainly respect Andys selections....Mr White ?I am not so sure about, but in the end, make your own picks. That is what this game is about, your own selections.
I am putting POTN in my bets, if i happen to bet the race by itself. But usually if i am live in the ik 3 or 4, i wont bet the race. But POTN will be in the pik wagers along with a couple of others..
I am pretty sure he will be in the mix.

:tro: Well said

let me know where you found in print or on ATR JW said a sure thing, he never said that, he has said he thinks POTN will win TC, but said to steve this past week nothing is for sure.

Stan, the guy is the biggest douchebag that's ever showed up here. In fact the only person I've ever put on ignore because he adds absolutely nothing pertinent to any discussion.

Seriously, don't waste your breath/keystrokes responding to him

And you know me how? who are you, what do you add?

The fewer definitive staments you make,
the more careful you are,
the better you look in the long run.
Venturing with bold, broad statements
is a set up for inaccuracy. And if one is
inaccurate often enough in the games these
two play... Well that is risky for people that cannot
handle being wrong.

Elimination of certain options is important. But it is also
much easier than picking the correct option that was
not part of popular opinion, or had many skeptics
before an event plays out.

We have an example of careful v. "to hell with it" bold.

rude rules..the king of tampa bay!!!!

Did you not see his avatar?

10-4 i hear you, where you been ? haven;t seen you post any lately

Same ole' crap - working too much - have TMZ entered in the 6th at Tampa Saturday, get my bets down for the derby then off to a Derby party not far from the track...

Lets recap, did i call him non devoted, unprofessional, or any of that nonsense or did I say he is idiotic for going around saying that this horse will win the KD and go on to win the TC and become the greatest horse of all time. I really dont know where the blind devotion is coming from he has with this horse.

And if you havent notice ive started several threads about Musket Man and have made it very clear that I will be putting money on the horse. And if im going to pick a horse that "figures" to go with him it would have to be Fresian Fire.

And I will take all bets that Musket Man beats POTN. YOU CAN MARK MY WORDS ON THAT ONE

Good-luck

happy derby,and party, like your picks but not as good as mine ;)

c'mon did you listen to this guy? seriously? the triple crown has not been won in 30 years. he made it sound like a walk in the park for this horse. i have my doubts about him even winning one of them. like most of these guys he is not a professional gambler. hes a guy with a forum about racing, more like a tout. a real gambler would never make these statements when not knowing whose in the races, the track conditions etc. and this clown is talking triple crown a week before the first leg. it sounds like some of you guys...lol. i read a post about someone with the brillant idea of playing rachel alexandra in oaks /derby double...wow, how original only half the world will be doing that move. of coarse i'll use her but i'll have tickets in that double without her too. if she loses i'm sure there will be thread about the terrible ride she got. thats how these things work. i've been horseplaying for a long time, nothing really surprises me anymore. sure everyone loves a hero but folks build these horses up and even better wager their money on short priced "monsters" only to have their wallets and hearts broken by following jokers like this. when i like a horse i bet it. there are very few "world beaters" in this game. to make money its the first lesson to learn. he was so overboard its hard to even fake credibility. can this horse win? possibly. a triple crown? maybe. would i state this publicly and bet on it now? never in a million years!!!!

You need to take the TC talk in Stride. He is in the media business. If an absolute miracle happens and he calls it right and POTN wins the triple crown, JW will be remembered forever for making the ballsy call and gain a ton of cred. If POTN doesn't win then he can say I guess he didn't take to the dirt and everyone will forget he even mentioned it in a few months. Not alot of risk with huge career upside if he is correct.

One of the new pieces of info from Thorograph this year is the concept that synthetic on dirt performances that are new tops tend to be one and done almost without fail. It doesn't mean a regression for a subsequent start is not enough to win a second in a row but the bottom falls out by the third hence very it is very unlikely by these stats that a triple crown from POTN is to follow even if he does win Saturday. Interestingly enough TGH is playing against IWR to win for the same reasons. The third on dirt after a synthetic base is supposed to be a Big Brown Belmont according to their research this year. The multimedia package is $15 bucks for the Derby and Oaks and is really a great watch/read this year.

I was thinking the same thing and my brother had mentioned that the other day too about IWR might regress after two huge starts on the dirt after the synthetics. If there's anytime for him to throw a clunker in on the dirt it would be here. I just have this weird feeling that its going to be bombs away in the derby this year.

I finally get what you guys mean...watching him on HRTV. I love his enthusiasm, but it's funny that he uses POTN to make points about basically every horse he talks about

For me the derby is just for your pick. the other races i will bet for profit,but i and i'm sure many others make a derby pick and enjoy it no matter who wins. playing rachel A is ok she is becoming a crowd favorite and a pleasure to watch. people bet her for the novelty of a super filly, and know they won't make any money, hell at the track many do not cash the ticket but keep as a
momento. nobody on DT forum thinks any of these things are true such as a sure thing. you think your opinion is right and everybody else is stupid, don't you have a nice thing to say about anyone, sounds like you are miserable,chill and bet , and win all of us loser's money.