Yea, I've been pretty steadfast about this since for some time now.

Like you, I now have next to no idea how to even begin thinking about the Derby.

RT,

I loved Mine That Bird last fall and going into the Breeder's Cup. But if those two 3yo races are the sum of his improvement from 2 to 3, (80-81 from 2 yo highs of 76-78), while going synthetic to dirt on top of it, things aren't promising for him to show the leap to be competitive in the Derby. Look at Just a Coincidence, West Side Bernie or Hold Me Back (if you want to see a synthetic surface improver) for patterns of healthy development in three year olds.

I apologize for being unaware of yet more wisdom from DrugS, this regarding Hold Me Back. I personally enjoy that horse so it's great news if he totally has more upside from that race that I knew about. I've heard grumbling about his loss on dirt at 2, some from ESPN on tv I think, but clearly they were just talking of which they knew not. Did you comment on his stride recently on your show or did I get that from reading/hearing Steve Haskin?

About your first post, perhaps 'stupid' was unfair. I do question the wisdom and I don't seem to find any information that qualifies him like 'he's just now coming around mentally' or 'he's really improving'. It sounds like they're running him because he's a nice horse and they have hopes--there are worse reasons but so many horses get ruined doing that. I'm concerned enough for Dunkirk but I was watching him after the race whenever they showed him--he seemed to be plotting revenge as much as a horse could. Maybe he was just cheesed off that he was being unsaddled outside of the winner's circle.

About Atomic Rain in the Wood, I did go back and look at it, and far be it for me to be one of those knuckleheads that argues with you 10 ways to Sunday that the sky is green, so I'll admit he's a nicer seeming horse than I remember and certainly I'd be more likely to call him at least promising although not Derby-promising. I still worry that a horse with what he's shown up to now could be going in over his head and ruined. Promise only takes you so far. Why not hold out for the Preakness and let the waters part after the Derby? I don't see how you come away from the Wood run thinking 'Derby winner's circle here we come!' Maybe G1 placing here we come, but with this Derby field? So many have pulled their horses out this year, trying not to ruin them, that the last 3 or 4 slots are being eyed hungrily and suddenly folks are getting Derby fever that had resigned themselves to being on the outside looking in. I do apologize for not being more tactful in my frustration.

Now playing the part of Affirmed.........Mine that Bird.

king - drugs told me to bet him , i forgot - he's better start giving me the plays the day of rather than 2 weeks before

I couldn't have had that winner in a million tries but this was the first post I thought of when he won.

With all due respect to Steve Byk (I love his horse racing show and seems like a good guy), he owes a sincere apology to the connections of Mine That Bird. While the horse appeared to have zero hope on paper, he deserved to be in based on the rules of entry.

In addition, it just goes to show how absolutely idiotic an idea it is to reduce the field size to 14. Why would you do that? Just to be able to handicap it better? I don't understand. It's ALL about the chance.

Finally, the Derby finish solidifies the fact that stiffer drug testing reveals the phony trainers (Pletcher most notably).

Crow Here, Get your Crow while it's hot. I've got Lemon Pepper Crow, Salt and Pepper Crow, Roasted Crow, BBQ Crow.

While Steve Byk was spending his time sharing his Derby opinions, and reasoning, you made not one single post here in a week.

Until now....with this garbage.

You've got nerve, I'll give you that.

Shouldn't this line be reserved for someone that actually had an opinion on the race? Me thinks so.

Beat me to it BTW.

Didnt hear a peep from him all week, and this is what he types?

both of you can EAD. Been with my wife all week. You see she's got Heart Failure and in need of a new pacemaker. Some of us don't get to live online like you two. Get a real life instead of posting your garbage with 10 million post that add up to having nothing to show for your time. I can't hlp that the both of you missed every bet you made today. Go back to reading the form and not cashing once again.

Apology accepted.

Sorry to hear about your wife. I really am.


But stop taking her pills.

You didnt let the need of the new pacemaker prevent you from going out to your local supermarket to pick up all of those crow spices and herbs and posting your menu on here.

and by the way, I've made more money in this game since the new year, than you probably have in your lifetime, and I'm still green at this game.

and lastly, rest assured that my life is far more enjoyable than your life. So put your dog down and clean up it's creampie.

How so, exactly? By Dunkirk falling on his face at the start?

Sorry about your wife, but I can't imagine a more absurd response to what Andy and Declan said. . .

;)

Dude quit it. Your only going to get yourself worked up over a GAME. Oh I forgot you got that Book out about your betting skills. Like I said if half of you on here were half as good as you claim you'd be retired by now. Oh I've made XXX since. Start posting some $hit before it happens. And no I'm not going to go Head to Head with you on Handicaping I've got beter things to do. Now turn the lights off in Mom's Basement she needs her rest.

I thought you already apologized.

Shouldn't you be counting your money you won today. Being that your the Greatest Handicapper since Pointgiven1985? The day I respect you and you opinion is the day I need put down.

I've repeatedly admitted here that I still have an ABUNDANCE to learn about the game. I'm confident in my ability to cap the races, it's my betting structure that could use tweaking (and my mancrush's). I'll be the first to admit all of this. I only posted that FACT to counter your 'nothing to show for your time' retort. (and I post some of my plays beforehand btw);)

and I'm appalled that you would lump me into the WARRAN T's of the world:rolleyes: . But since it was you that posted it, I will just have to 'consider the source' as they say.

p.s. Stop the pill popping.

i think you're overstating his start. it wasn't that bad of a stumble. i've seen worse, with better finishes after.

That makes one of us.

Haven't had one in quite a long time. Everybody has a vice. Yeah I had a problem and I faced it. So what? Oh you hurt my feelers talking about my RX problem. You people kill me when you rally around one another. Lot's of people on here talk $hit about horses that don't belong. Well you know what the little guy won Today. Not Baffert, Lukas, Todd, or even Richard. It's the little guys who don't belong that make this Sport Great. Sport that's a word alot of people on here need to hear more often.

That's possible, I suppose, but I don't think his trip after that was particularly easy either. Anyways. . . the poster I was responding to made an incredibly asinine comment about Pletcher's supposed drug use, citing his lack of success in the Derby (despite two second place finishes) - not to mention a Belmont Stakes win and countless other major G1 victories. He's the type of idiot that helps limit the general public's exposure to racing to breakdowns and "steroids."

yeah, i didn't get what he was inferring there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGzWsfN3GTA

Gun Charges....Riiiiiiight??? 25 dime litigation.

Come on.... The guy is zero for 24 in the Derby. Most of his horses have finished far up the track. Can a reasonably logical person claim this to be mere coincidence? The guy is an eclipse award winning trainer that won many Derby preps over the years but can't get a horse to be competitive in the one race they seriously test for drugs?

Yea, I guess that is just a coincidence....

Asinine comment? The game is ravaged by drugs. Just saying it isn't doesn't make it so. There is hardly an equine performance I actually believe these days.

I believe I've invested enough of my money and time in this game to have (and state) my opinion.

I consider myself reasonably logical, and I think this post is unreasonably illogical.

They test more at the BC, and monitor stalls more at the BC, than any other horse racing event. Pletcher notched a few wins there didn't he?

I shouldn't even waste my time with this response. The Derby is a 20 horse race under ridiculously difficult circumstances. Because Pletcher hasn't won does not mean he laid-off the drugs. That's ridiculous.

Oh well, I did tell folks I knew that if all we do is talk about how Mine That Bird has no chance he's going to win on Murphy's Law alone. I've never found being so stunned by a win that turns out to also be so hilarious. Calvin Borel's just a marvelously crazy cajun and that cheering after the race was so contagious. The longest margin of victory since Assault--serves us all right. :D Felony violation of Murphy's Law. Happy for Birdstone's people, great sign for his sire future I'm hoping, and since MTB is a gelding who knows, he might be around awhile.

I think TAP's lack of Derby success is based on two factors. First, many of his runners were really not "live contenders" but horses entered by owners with Derby Fever. Odd thing though is that his "Join in the Dance's" seem to outrun his "Dunkirks" every year.

Second, TAP has maintained his high percentage by picking his spots. There are enough big events that if horse A is not 100% in time for this Saturday, you wait and enter next Saturday. You simply cannot do that with the Derby and BC. (He's won some BC races but not at the clip that he wins other G1's.) In those races you must be ready on the day.

A more riviting thread I have not read in quite some time.

As for drugs in the sport, well whether they are used by everyone or almost everyone, I don't think it makes near the difference all this hoopla is about.

As for Packer, sorry about you wife, but you threw the first punch and I really don't see what your point is. Not defending or siding, just stating my opinion.

As for me making a living betting on horses. Yes, it's true. And I enjoy poverty very much thank you.

As for Mind that Bird. What????? A side question....of the hundreds of DT'ers...anyone have him?

I watched the Derby with my 3 year old. As they were loading into the gate she said " I think these are cows daddy, because some horses look like cows."
Turns out she was right.:p

??

Not jabbing at Steve or taking sides but this post is pretty funny.

Well played!:tro: :tro:

:wf

I think that was the one from the heart.

This thread is comedy gold now.

this is the nicest thing anyone has said about mine that bird, pre-derby

:D