Yes.

They were a lot closer than given credit for. On dirt, no- Rags to Riches was an outstanding filly, probably the best of the last 3-4 years. On turf or synthetic, maybe. But unfortunately, due to injury and early retirement and because they ran for the same trainer, we never got to find out.

Rachel Alexandra would beat them both on dirt.

I think so and I hope so. However, there isn't much competition in her division this year so we may not know how good she really is until she faces the boys or older fillies.

I find the Keeneland (and Turfway, and Arlington) Polytrack surfaces rather boringly predictable, rather than random. They very noticably tighten up with cooler weather and wet (favors frontrunners), slows and becomes more deep with warm/dry (becomes obviously fair), and this is very apparent during some days as the day progresses, and when one compares morning training times to race times. Keeneland has been spot on with this, this meet so far.

It very often plays very fairly to both speed (must be fit) and closers (must be fit).

At Keeneland, the lack of favorites winning is due more, IMO, to the variety of horses (especially young horses) shipping in from all over (mixing of populations that have never run against each other before).

Fall meet is more predictable than spring, regarding favorites winning (haven't checked it for sure, my impression)

Arlington and Turfway, with their populations rather more fixed and constantly competing against each other, are hardly chaotic or random IMO.

Some handicappers view Kee as chaos, some as great financial opportunity. It plays little like turf in my experience.

Regarding Derby horses, one has to see if they can handle the Churchill dirt surface during their last two weeks of training, anyway. The morning gallops and works reports are most important to me in the final separation of the field.

Regarding using a formula to convert synthetic to dirt figures, I'd want to know under what weather conditions the synthetic figure was obtained.

Will we really learn anything when she faces older fillies/mares? Proud Spell is retired and Zenyatta is unlikely to run outside of California.

Saratoga has a lot of that ... and yet favorites still win at a solid 106-for-254 (42%) clip in dirt stake races this decade. They are 38-for-105 in turf graded stakes this decade.


On Keeneland's synthetic track - favorites have gone a mind-bogglingly dismal 6-for-54 in stake races.

Street Sense losing to Domincan in a near five way photo is an example of some of the goofy results.

Point taken about SAR. I don't think that dirt courses can change (loosen up, tighten up) throughout the day as much as Polytrack can.

On the subject of Panty Raid, can anyone name the horse that beat her in the Bourbonette at Turfway Park? This horse has won stakes races on all 3 surfaces and has twice finished 2nd in grade 1 company last year.

While I agree moisture has a lot to do with where winners come from (front or back) on synthetics, it has nothing to do with the figures. Even on wet synthetic tracks dominated by frontrunners, the figures come back "tighter" than they do on dirt tracks. I'm not saying this is good or bad, but just the way it is.

One thing I find funny in these discussions is the way some people act like a front runner has never won on turf.

Sealy Hill. She's a damn nice filly.

Yep, gave her backers a thrill at SA last year when she ran into that toughie Forever Together.

And made me nearly wet my pants thinking I wasn't going to get out of that leg in multi-race wagers for a minute.

Really nice horse, just the kind who never seems to get any respect, and I'm totally guilty of that too...I don't usually give her any credit.

I went bananas after that race. Go back and read my posts if you want a laugh on a boring monday.

she knocked over two seconds off the oaklawn track record a couple races back. it's what i always saw from days past, if a horse had no competition, they still had the clock. i think she's the best horse in training-and i'm generally very stingy with praise.

She would have won the Bourbonette that day if she would not have broke through the gate and ran a half mile or so before being caught by the outrider, and placed back in the gate. I was in line to cancel the ticket when they broke.

Did Nashoba's Key ever win on the Dirt? I know she got her grade 1's on the turf and "misc"...

She never ran on dirt.

NT

Nothing wrong with 'earning' a victory on the front end. I took a quick look at a number of dates at SA and I found at least a few wire jobs on each day. Nothing wrong with that. And, since these aren't match races we're dealing with, nothing wrong with the setup of the race determining the winner.

You really should come over here more often for some engaging exchanges, rather than indulging all those trainers, owners, and yo yo's over at PA. You're just about the only one out there with a clue as to pace.

......i couldnt agree more. that place has become a nightmare for me. as you stated, the hollywood surface is alot closer to dirt .

Is the love affair finally over?

http://www.kentuckyoaks.com/2009/new...ng-about-four-

Pink accents my olive guid-ian skin. At least that's what the fashion TV shows tell me.

You prefer wire to wire jobs x 9, sorry I couldn't resist. ;)

woo-hoo, pink! :{>:

:D

You wont be getting a Christmas card from Randy Moss with comments like that.

That is because nobody has figured out how to read his figures yet.

Interesting. Thanks for that.

one thing i love to see is a front end theft in a turf route, especially against a tough field. its like a thing of beauty when they pull it off.

I think part of the reason we see less of the front end thefts are jockies of today are not of the same quality we have had in years gone past, Gary Stevens was just about the best rider at doing this, you could always adjust your handicapping accordingly if you foresaw a paceless race with him in a race. You see what some would term as top riders riding at SA right now and you are quickly reminded just how great a rider he truly was.

Yes and especially the turf marathons, one and a half miles. There was a big gray horse that Pincay rode years ago out in SoCal. He'd send him right to the front and lope along. Any time a horse came to him, he would just let out another notch. He won quite a few races this way. Can't remember the horses name though.

Apparently 79 is the break even point: 79 Beyer = 79 Dirt equivalent Beyer. Go lower than that and the dirt numbers are actually lower. I believe this is because the program uses a linear relationship, and 79 is where the two lines intersect.

Fly Till Dawn?

Yes!!!! I loved to watch that horse run. The last two starts of his career he won two grade I races wire to wire, the San Luis Rey at a mile and one half and the San Juan Capistrano at a mile and 3/4. On the lead the whole way and widening the margin in the stretch. Valenzuela was up for the San Juan, but Pincay rode him in most of his wins. He was one tough customer. Darrell Vienna trained him. Thanks for jogging my memory:)

It is actually 80.

Close enough! Thanks for the info, that's the only true method I've seen yet. Keeneland has a very complicated excel document on poly racing. Has anyone here looked at it?

i've done some work on it. what do you want to know?

Why would you want to convert syn figures to dirt? Wouldn't that be meaningless? You wouldn't do the same for turf figures...

Handicap tracks like Mountaineer and observe all these Woodbine shippers appearing in the cheap races with towering figures and you'll get a better idea why.

Personally ... I ignore speed figures in turf races. I don't even look at them. I don't bet very many races run over synthetic tracks ... but I don't totally ignore figures in synthetic track races because I think the variants can be trusted for both pace and final time.

The field is too bunched at the end of synthetic races to consistently produce big figures like you see on the dirt so it essentially brings bad horses up and good horses down on the figures. By adjusting for that on the assumption that a beaten length on synthetic is more significant than a beaten length on dirt you can at least get some sort of idea as to whether the synthetic horses would be fast enough to compete if they could replicate their synthetic performance on the dirt. From what the numbers at the start of the thread show, only The Pamplemousse was fast enough so the other synthetic horses will have to actually improve on the dirt to contend.

Thanks for posting this. Ashamed to admit I wasn't aware of pacefigures.com. Looking at the conversion values, it's clear that any Beyer speed fig on synthetic can be converted to the dirt equivalent by:

DirtFig = SynFig + (SynFig - 80)/3

Using The Pamplemousse's 103 in the Sham as an example, you'd have:

DirtFig = 103 + (103-80)/3, or

DirtFig = 103 + 7.67 = 110.67, which rounds to 111.

It works for Beyer "SynFigs" below 80, too.

--Dunbar

So this is assuming they have the same ability on both surfaces. I was thinking, even if you could convert Woodbine figures for those who are shipping into Mountaineer, isn't it a guess as to whether the Woodbine shipper even likes real dirt?