Go to the track, take a look around,
think about how many people you see,
especially during a weekday, are thinking about
older horses that are really accomplished.

They dont care. This sport attracts a whole
lot of people that are looking for juice and
nothing else. They are addicted gamblers.

The beauty of watching great athletes means
nothing to them. The game has and always will
attract these types, which is why there has
always been a tainted view of racing by the
general public.
Add a Mullins incident, the jock that jumped
off in England, Cobra venom...

On topic: Why should I think Terrain has a decent
chance in the Blue Grass? Please explain why he is
a throwout.

I kinda like Terrain in the Blue Grass.

I'll take a stab. First, there is the fact that he hasn't finished first in a race since the Mountaineer Juvenile at 6f. Yes, he was moved up to first in a double DQ, but he looks like one of those horses who are always hitting the board without winning. Must use underneath in exotics, not for win. How's that?

Ok then I will take General Quarters
to get rammed up the rear of Mufaaz
courtesy of Rebar Coa in a unique fused horse
win/place finish.

One thing that we have to consider these days is whether the horse was bred to mature early and excel at 2 or not. Such horses will look really good at 2 but will get no better at 3, sort of like Arazi, the poster child of this sort. Meanwhile others of the crop will have improved with maturity from 2 to 3, catch up and surpass the juvenile hotshots.

The clearest example of this currently is Beethoven. He is by a stallion who reached his peak at 2 out of a mare who reached her peak at 2. I didn't expect him to go on at 3, based on what he was bred to be, and he hasn't.

Now when you get a horse who isn't bred to be an early maturing sort and STILL beats them all at 2, like Hoist the Flag, then you know you have a real racehorse.

Nice to see a Gr.2 race come up like a Gr.1 in the Jenny Wiley. Visit has been a dissapointment since a promising debut in NA, I think she will offer abit of value today. Looking for a better race from her 1st time out east.

Scratches & Changes


6th Race -- Shakertown (G3)
#7--Rollers--SCRATCH
#8--Fort Prado--SCRATCH
#13AE--Goldphin Gray--Runs
#14AE--Stradivinsky--SCRATCH

7th Race -- Commonwealth (G2)
NO CHANGES

8th Race -- Jenny Wiley (G2)
#4--Ballymore Lady--SCRATCH
#9--Visit--SCRATCH

9th Race -- Toyota Blue Grass (G1)
NO CHANGES

Track Conditions, Maintenance & Weather
Saturday, April 11, 2009 11:00 AM
The Polytrack is fast; the turf course is yielding; the rail is down

Forecast is sunny and 60 degrees today; check back throughout the day to see if the condition of the turf course is upgraded
We received about 1.5 inches of rain yesterday.

The Gallop Master will be used twice today after training; once at 4 inches; a second time at 3 inches. It will be used again after races 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8.

Visit's a scratch, thanks...:rolleyes:

Frankel knows she wasn't beating Forever Together under any circumstances. She could lose today, but it wasn't going to be to Visit.

I'm starting to think that Frankel's daughter has bigger balls than him.

Next time he is on ATRAB, that would be a great question, why does he scratch so often?...I'm sure I am not only bettor that gets driven crazy by this. Anyway we will never know now, Forever Together is a really good horse but I have to think she will need one before she hits top form. Thus I was willing to take her on today.

Arazi is a bad example. Perhaps you missed the Kentucky Derby he ran in. He was even better than he was in the BC Juvenile.

What? he ran a well-beaten eighth in the Derby. Are you trying to tell me that Lil E. Tee, Casual Lies and Dance Floor were better horses than Bertrando, who was second in the Juvie? Or were you trying to be sarcastic? Can't tell oftentimes, without a clue of some sort.

I know where he finished. I also know what kind of race he ran. That's why I wonder did you actually see the race or are you just going by the final results? In that Derby, he made another run which, to me, was more impressive than the BC run was. He passed every horse in moving from last place and was right there at the top of the lane. It's my belief that his not finishing had more to do with the fact that he'd had the surgery and only one 8f prep race between the BC and the Derby, that race being on grass in Europe, than it had to do with him not getting any better.

Hold Me Back over Patena with Charitable Man and Join in the Dance battling for third.

I'm taking Charitable Man, he's going to be all the talk on the Derby Trail(until Square Eddie destroys the Lexington imposters next Saturday)

Got Backseat Rhythm next

I take it back, she wasn't losing to anyone. She won in a gallop, despite a glacial 1:17 pace. She is a true champ.

Stop the presses. I agree.

Arazi made a huge move in the Kentucky Derby, typically a winning move, but it all caught-up to him.

so, does this mean mafaaz will be skipping the derby?

Any horse that drinks Guiness daily is a friend of mine.

Weird race in the Blue Grass.

General Quarters actually ran decent and finished in under 36 seconds for the final 3/8ths.

Its hard to know what to make of races over that track. It seems like front runners are carrying home, and I'm not sure how much stamina to give them credit for.
JoJo had such a perfect trip and came up empty.

I played no-shows Charitable Man, Mafaaz and Patena :o

I was surprised to see him so close to the pace, just like I was in the FL Derby.

yea, it was one of those times when his raw pace numbers would have him close, but his running style would suggest he would be farther back. Add the switch to Borel into the mix as well...

The track is playing fair. I think you are reading too much into it. I didn't see a single instance where a frontrunner got carried longer than they can go, or a closer's advantage either.

It's been front-running all week. Jockeys have been fighting for the lead, and making early move-ups to get forward position. I've hit two big races by playing the speeds (vs. Stardom Bound, Ventura).

It is always possible that it has changed back to a fair track today, all I really watched was the Blue Grass so far.

I think the rail is deep at Keeneland right now... horses are swimming over it.

its not the speed
 

Hello, closers on santa anita poly don't closer at other tracks. Front Runners don't fade at other tracks. Well Armed Papa IWR etc

Ventana, Evita, Stardom etc. Did people really thing the 5 best closers all came from Santa Anita.

This explanation I could buy more than being speed friendly.

I also played the speeds against Stardom Bound, but it really wasn't because speed was good, more because I knew Stardom Bound was very vulnerable at 3/5. Check today's charts- the winners at the 1/2 mile call (3/4 in routes) were 6th, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 7th, 3rd, and 2nd.

However, speed on the turf is NOT good. Of course, the one speed all YEAR I absolutely needed to come back found a way to wire the field :rolleyes:

Seitz won another today with a bomb.....Seitz on FIRE!!

I know. I didn't miss him this time. ;)

Apparently he wasn't on the decline:o

Who? Jojo? He's not a router, he's a one-turn closer.

Hopefully they will consider a prep race this time, but they went from thinking Charitable Man was ready for the Derby to now pointing to the Travers.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102949.html

It will be a miracle if he's up to running in the King's Bishop that day.