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-   -   3/28 (GP): Florida Derby (G1); Swale (G2); Appleton (G3) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28606)

TheSpyder 03-28-2009 04:53 PM

Very Happy for Jerkins and I know who I like in the Derby now. Gutsy effort in the lane and if QR has more to improve I say his style and experience makes him the one to beat.

Great ride too.

eajinabi 03-28-2009 04:55 PM

Flop job by Desormaux. Give him the Vlade Divac trophy!

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:56 PM

now does Pletcher/Dunkirk pull hijinx and rush into something to get more earnings for Derby? or just let it play out naturally and go Preakness, Belmont ?

Travis Stone 03-28-2009 04:56 PM

Pletcher wasn't too happy after the race, did anyone hear the line he gave Edwards? That was awesome regardless, great horse race!

Cannon Shell 03-28-2009 04:56 PM

Cant tell you how happy I am for JJ.

Though Pletcher was right, the track is ridiculous today.

The Lexington just got a lot tougher

randallscott35 03-28-2009 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
now does Dunkirk pull hijinx and rush into something to get more earnings for Derby? or just let it play out naturally and go Preakness, Belmont ?

I can't see them going to the Lex for that. They await the Preakness, but he may yet get in at 150k. Time will tell.

cakes44 03-28-2009 04:57 PM

I'm liking my 18-1 on Friesan Fire more every week.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
no reason to knock either. They both ran big.
Quality Road might be the triple crown horse this year.

Has a good chance to win the Derby, but it's too deep a year for him to win the T.C.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Pletcher wasn't too happy after the race, did anyone hear the line he gave Edwards? That was awesome regardless, great horse race!

can you paraphrase it?
watching via xpressbet video feed

eajinabi 03-28-2009 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
now does Dunkirk pull hijinx and rush into something to get more earnings for Derby? or just let it play out naturally and go Preakness, Belmont ?

Go for the Peter Pan and beat Also rans then build the hype for the Belmont and scratch the day before. Its called the Casino Drive Strategy

The Indomitable DrugS 03-28-2009 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Great ride too.


JRV placed him in a great spot - but almost got caught with his pants down on the far turn.

I don't think he ever saw Dunkirk until he was almost on level terms. He appeared to be looking back for Dunkirk as well just before he got level. I'm sure he'd have liked to push the button a tad sooner had he saw Dunkirk coming to him with a head of steam.

Garret Gomez rode a tremendous race. I don't think the track was playing kind to Dunkirk's style ... but he placed him perfectly - moved at the perfect time - and almost caught JRV sleeping.

Cannon Shell 03-28-2009 05:00 PM

That may be the all time lame excuse. They got rain last Sunday?

Sightseek 03-28-2009 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Cant tell you how happy I am for JJ.

Though Pletcher was right, the track is ridiculous today.

The Lexington just got a lot tougher

But do you think he would have said that if he had Quality Road?

mclem0822 03-28-2009 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Pletcher wasn't too happy after the race, did anyone hear the line he gave Edwards? That was awesome regardless, great horse race!

It was a great race I agree, I'd love to see them both go on to the Derby. The track records keep getting smashed today.

justindew 03-28-2009 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
That may be the all time lame excuse. They got rain last Sunday?

Agreed. Pletcher is correct to bitch, although he could have scratched.

Cannon Shell 03-28-2009 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
But do you think he would have said that if he had Quality Road?

While it does look a little like whining after the fact, the track was certainly souped up. Though that isnt a real big surprise

Cannon Shell 03-28-2009 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
Agreed. Pletcher is correct to bitch, although he could have scratched.

True. he should have bitched after the 1st.

ArlJim78 03-28-2009 05:05 PM

Velasquez never saw Dunkirk until quite late, I thought Dunkirk had the clear jump on him. They both dug in impressively.
Its criminal how they monkey with the tracks on big days, and I still don't know why they do it. Who does it benefit?

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Has a good chance to win the Derby, but it's too deep a year for him to win the T.C.

Belmont is a big stretch but he stamped himself Derby Preakness favorite.

For those who felt Friesan Fire wasn't brilliant enough have a more talented alternative...

Cannon Shell 03-28-2009 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You think he's Derby/Preakness favorite already? It's way too early. Quality Road's a very nice horse. But there is a big difference between sitting a dream trip on a bias track in a small field and a 20 horse field Derby Day. I wouldn't want to take too short a price on him, even though he's been nothing short of brilliant so far.

Agreed. JV rode him perfectly today, got him a little breather on the turn and didn't panic when Dunkirk ranged up quickly on him.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-28-2009 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
True. he should have bitched after the 1st.

There are days when the track is souped up - times are lightning fast - and wide closers do very well throughout the card. Have an edge.

Just as there are days - like today in Dubai - when the track is very slow and tiring - times are slow - and the inside speed is at an extreme advantage.

Dunkirk labored over one of those slow tiring tracks in his debut at GP when he won in 1:25 and change.

A lot of times path and style biases seem to occur on funky weather days - and they said the winds were blowing at 25 MPH.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You think he's Derby/Preakness favorite already? It's way too early. Quality Road's a very nice horse. But there is a big difference between sitting a dream trip on a bias track in a small field and a 20 horse field Derby Day. I wouldn't want to take too short a price on him, even though he's been nothing short of brilliant so far.

I think he's got a real good shot at being the betting favorite barring a freak injury. Not necessarily saying he's "my" favorite.

Sightseek 03-28-2009 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
I think he's got a real good shot at being the betting favorite barring a freak injury. Not necessarily saying he's "my" favorite.

If I Want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, I think he's the favorite.

Cannon Shell 03-28-2009 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There are days when the track is souped up - times are lightning fast - and wide closers do very well throughout the card. Have an edge.

Just as there are days - like today in Dubai - when the track is very slow and tiring - times are slow - and the inside speed is at an extreme advantage.

Dunkirk labored over one of those slow tiring tracks in his debut at GP when he won in 1:25 and change.

A lot of times path and style biases seem to occur on funky weather days - and they said the winds were blowing at 25 MPH.

Looking at the flags it looked like a strong tailwind down the backstretch

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Belmont is a big stretch but he stamped himself Derby Preakness favorite.

For those who felt Friesan Fire wasn't brilliant enough have a more talented alternative...

I think it's very difficult to say who ran better today. A lack of speed is a problem at Gulfstream. They knew that going in. Fact is that Dunkirk was behind, and still is playing catch up quite well. Maybe they should just accept the fact that they started too late, and aim for one of the other 2 legs. This was a tough race for him. He made a big move on a speed favoring track. It's not just a problem of coming in 2nd. It's how much it took out of him to have to fight that bias.

TheSpyder 03-28-2009 05:27 PM

He looked very tired and can't see them wheel him back. If they do and no matter what happens, no way he does well in the Derby. and if by ssome way he does win the Derby, they'll run the horse into the ground going after the TC.
Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I think it's very difficult to say who ran better today. A lack of speed is a problem at Gulfstream. They knew that going in. Fact is that Dunkirk was behind, and still is playing catch up quite well. Maybe they should just accept the fact that they started too late, and aim for one of the other 2 legs. This was a tough race for him. He made a big move on a speed favoring track. It's not just a problem of coming in 2nd. It's how much it took out of him to have to fight that bias.


Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
If I Want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, I think he's the favorite.

If I want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, where does that rank this crop??

Holy Smokes

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder
He looked very tired and can't see them wheel him back. If they do and no matter what happens, no way he does well in the Derby. and if by ssome way he does win the Derby, they'll run the horse into the ground going after the TC.

Yea, I think he is gunna need 6 weeks minimum(that's just a gut feeling.) Do they have that?

Sightseek 03-28-2009 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
If I want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, where does that rank this crop??

Holy Smokes

He's racing essentially the same field, doesn't mean the rest of the crop prepping on the other circuits are no good.

I do expect (hope for?) more out of Imperial Council though.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 05:38 PM

I Want Revenge could add to the heavy-hitters
 
we have a good crop this year.

possibly a very good one

Danzig 03-28-2009 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
can you paraphrase it?
watching via xpressbet video feed

pletcher said he complained to one of the top guys at the track about how they tinkered with the surface. referenced the fact it was the second track record today (big drama in the swale-stands even with the dq i guess), that if he had known they were going to mess with the track and produce a bias for front runners, he'd have gone to aqu next week instead. he seemed pretty ticked off-whether it's a legit beef, i don't know.

fpsoxfan 03-28-2009 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
Agreed. Pletcher is correct to bitch, although he could have scratched.

Exactly. Pletcher could have showed a little more class. Why didn't he run in the Wood to begin with??

Danzig 03-28-2009 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Exactly. Pletcher could have showed a little more class. Why didn't he run in the Wood to begin with??

probably because he thought he could win here. now, let's see if cooler heads prevail with the horse and future plans.

fpsoxfan 03-28-2009 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
probably because he thought he could win here. now, let's see if cooler heads prevail with the horse and future plans.

Good Point. Obviously Dunkirk has a load of talent. He just ran into a very tough horse today. I'd hate to see him miss the derby because of earnings, especially when he's arguably one of the top five three year olds.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Exactly. Pletcher could have showed a little more class. Why didn't he run in the Wood to begin with??

I would imagine it's difficult when you lose, and they jam the mic in your face right away. It is hard to complain like that without looking like you're trying to take away from the winners performance. They would of been closer together. That's all you can really say. There were easier spots. For whatever reason, they chose this spot.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I would imagine it's difficult when you lose, and they jam the mic in your face right away. It is hard to complain like that without looking like you're trying to take away from the winners performance. They would of been closer together. That's all you can really say. There were easier spots. For whatever reason, they chose this spot.

Good point.

I was having a discussion with a handicapper (Draynay) yesterday evening, and the topic of how fast the track was yesterday came up. With The Bonnie Miss going fast in spite of hard fractions, Dr. Pleasure equaling Quality Road's FOY time in an allowance, and the last race 18K claimers buzz sawing through a sub 1:16.

I feel bad for Pletch, but you can't take it away from Quality Road. If a 2nd in this truely top class race doesn't get you in, the blame isn't as much on the track as it is on circumstance.

Danzig 03-28-2009 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I would imagine it's difficult when you lose, and they jam the mic in your face right away. It is hard to complain like that without looking like you're trying to take away from the winners performance. They would of been closer together. That's all you can really say. There were easier spots. For whatever reason, they chose this spot.

i don't think anyone would react well when someone is basically asking 'how'd it feel to lose?'

philcski 03-28-2009 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
He's racing essentially the same field, doesn't mean the rest of the crop prepping on the other circuits are no good.

I do expect (hope for?) more out of Imperial Council though.

Thinking Fischer is saying this is a special crop... and I agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I think it's very difficult to say who ran better today. A lack of speed is a problem at Gulfstream. They knew that going in. Fact is that Dunkirk was behind, and still is playing catch up quite well. Maybe they should just accept the fact that they started too late, and aim for one of the other 2 legs. This was a tough race for him. He made a big move on a speed favoring track. It's not just a problem of coming in 2nd. It's how much it took out of him to have to fight that bias.

Scuds on fire today.


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