The problem with running back in the Lexington is that THEN he's got two weeks to the Derby. When has Todd manaed to win a major race off 2 weeks? It's possible but improbable.

I really hope they don't go with Big Drama. He is what he is, 8.5f is probably his max unless he can get an easy lead. If he were mine, the Met Mile would be the goal....

I don't think Fawkes or Queen will get Derby Fever.

remember when he was not going to run bluegrass cat back, and everyone fussed, so he changed his mind? he lost to bernardini, and suffered an injury as well.
i don't think dunkirk runs again before the derby.

That's very bold of you.

:tro:

Updated Earnings (3/28)
 

Red means they aren't going (IMO)

1 Regal Ransom $1,250,000
2 Square Eddie $774,981
3 Pioneerof the Nile $743,250
4 Desert Party $641,667
5 Quality Road $600,000
6 Friesan Fire $570,465
7 Rachel Alexandra $413,001
8 Terrain $410,830
9 Old Fashioned $330,000
10 I Want Revenge $324,000
11 Hold Me Back $288,000
12 West Side Bernie $235,160
13 Chocolate Candy $220,000
14 Bittel Road $211,000
15 Musket Man $200,000
16 Capt. Candyman Can $186,945
17 The Pamplemousse $180,000
17 Win Willy $180,000
19 Papa Clem $160,000
20 Charitable Man $150,000
20 Dunkirk $150,000
22 Mine That Bird $138,705
23 Theregoesjojo $133,063
24 Beethoven $132,494
25 General Quarters $130,645
26 Flying Private $94,000
27 El Crespo $90,000
27 Flying Pegasus $90,000
30 Giant Oak $74,256
31 Join in the Dance $67,500
32 Hello Broadway $63,860
33 Imperial Council $50,000
34 Proceed Bee $47,000
35 Feisty Suances $40,000
35 Massone $40,000
35 Sumo $40,000
35 Take the Points $40,000
39 Stately Character $37,500
40 Bear's Rocket $36,000
42 Justdontcallmejeri $30,000
42 Poltergeist $30,000
44 Nowhere to Hide $27,000
45 Buzzin and Dreamin $25,000
46 Jeranimo $24,000
46 Mr. Hot Stuff $24,000
46 Rendezvous $24,000
49 Parade Clown $23,500
50 Bee Cee Cee $20,000
50 Patena $20,000
52 Captain Cherokee $15,000
53 Flat Out $12,500
53 Masala $12,500
55 He's Really Big $12,000
56 Kelly Leak $9,000

I'm really expecting Stardom Bound to be entered and scratched by IEAH, if for no other reason than to try and keep Dunkirk out if he's still on the bubble come entry time.

Done. Reason for posting was to show how Dunkirk really has a reasonable shot at already getting in. He has to fade 5 races (unless someone gets nuts and tries causing problems from a race like the Translyvannia on Friday)

If horses like Old Fashioned, POTN, Papa Chem, Grapefruit, Freisan Fire, and Terrian run well, Dunkirk is in, but if they don't then he is screwed

Why? Is there some feud between Coolmore and IEAH?

O'Neill has said he's training Eddie for the Derby.

McLaughlin said that with a good effort in the Blue Grass, Charitable Man WILL go.

Looking at the list, the one's with a legit chance of moving up include Imperial Council, Take the Points, Join in the Dance and possibly Flying Pegasus. They wont need to win their last preps either.
Wood $750k 1st $450k, 2nd $150k
Sa Derby Same
Blue Grass Same
Ill Derby $500k 1st $300k 2nd $100k

That's alot of money out there for horses that have some graded earnings already looking to leap frog over a few that are not running back. Even the Lexington for $325k meaning the winner gets $195k and 2nd gets $$65k.

eagles dont worry about flies

Can't rule out CHARITABLE MAN. He's scheduled for The Blue Grass.

Not because there is any fued but I'd think that anyone that watched the Florida Derby would have to consider Dunkirk as a horse that could be a factor and since they'll have I Want Revenge in there and they could possibly help to keep Dunkirk out, I wouldn't be surprised at all.

I doubt that by Derby time Dunkirk will be on the cusp as he is now. Unless he's #21 (or 20 if Mufaaz goes) entering and scratching Stardom Bound won't help.

Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings for Major Contenders (through 03/31/09)

1 Regal Ransom bin Suroor, Saeed $1,250,000
2 Square Eddie O'Neill, Doug $774,981
3 Pioneerof the Nile Baffert, Bob $743,250
4 Desert Party bin Suroor, Saeed $641,667
5 Quality Road Jerkens, James $600,000
6 Friesan Fire Jones, J. Larry $570,465
7 Terrain Stall, Albert $410,830
8 Old Fashioned Jones, J. Larry $330,000
9 I Want Revenge Mullins, Jeff $324,000
10 Hold Me Back Mott, Bill $288,000
11 West Side Bernie Breen, Kelly $235,160
12 Chocolate Candy Hollendorfer, Jerry $220,000
13 Bittel Road Pletcher, Todd $211,000
14 Musket Man Ryan, Derek $200,000
15 Crowded House (GB) Meehan, Brian $195,020
16 The Pamplemousse Canani, Julio $180,000
17 Win Willy Robertson, McLean $180,000
18 Papa Clem Stute, Gary $160,000
19 Charitable Man McGlaughlin, Kiaran $150,000
20 Dunkirk Pletcher, Todd $150,000

21 Mine That Bird Woolley, Bennie $138,705
22 Theregoesjojo McPeek, Ken $133,063
23 General Quarters McCarthy, Tom $130,645
24 Munnings Pletcher, Todd $105,000
25 Flying Private Lukas, D. Wayne $94,000
26 Cribnote Violette, Rick $90,000
27 Flying Pegasus Nicks, Ralph $90,000
28 Join in the Dance Pletcher, Todd $67,500
29 Imperial Council McGaughey, Shug $50,000
30 Procede Bee Gestes, Terry $47,000
31 Atomic Rain Breen, Kelly $40,000
32 Take the Points Pletcher, Todd $40,000
33 Feisty Suances Vienna, Darrell $40,000
34 Bear's Rocket Baker, Reade $36,000
35 Poltergeist VonHemel, Donnie K. $30,000
36 Lime Rickey Alexander, Frank $30,000
37 Uno Mas Asmussen, Steve $28,000
38 Gone Astray McGaughey, Shug $27,500
39 Nowhere to Hide Zito, Nick $27,000
40 Rendezvous Hollendorfer, Jerry $24,000
41 Jeranimo Pender, Michael $24,000
42 Parade Clown Ball, Katherine $23,500
43 Patena Dutrow, Rick $20,000
44 Soul Warrior Asmussen, Steve $18,000
45 Ventana Baffert, Bob $16,600
46 Captain Cherokee Asmussen, Steve $15,000
47 Brave Victory Zito, Nick $14,833
48 Al Khali Pletcher, Todd $0
49 Mayor Marv Baffert, Bob $0
50 Omniscient Asmussen, Steve $0

This should be the updated list after today's races...


1 Regal Ransom bin Suroor, Saeed $1,250,000
2 Pioneer of the Nile Baffert, Bob $1,193,250
3 Square Eddie O'Neill, Doug $774,981
4 I Want Revenge Mullins, Jeff $774,000
5 Desert Party bin Suroor, Saeed $641,667
6 Quality Road Jerkens, James $600,000
7 Friesan Fire Jones, J. Larry $570,465
8 Musket Man Ryan, Derek $485,000
9 Terrain Stall, Albert $410,830
10 West Side Bernie Breen, Kelly $385,160
11 Chocolate Candy Hollendorfer, Jerry $370,000
12 Old Fashioned Jones, J. Larry $330,000
13 Hold Me Back Mott, Bill $288,000
14 Bittel Road Pletcher, Todd $211,000
15 Crowded House (GB) Meehan, Brian $195,020
16 The Pamplemousse Canani, Julio $180,000
17 Win Willy Robertson, McLean $180,000
18 Papa Clem Stute, Gary $160,000
19 Charitable Man McGlaughlin, Kiaran $150,000
20 Dunkirk Pletcher, Todd $150,000

21 Mine That Bird Woolley, Bennie $138,705
22 Theregoesjojo McPeek, Ken $133,063
23 General Quarters McCarthy, Tom $130,645
24 Munnings Pletcher, Todd $105,000
25 Flying Private Lukas, D. Wayne $94,000
26 Cribnote Violette, Rick $90,000
27 Flying Pegasus Nicks, Ralph $90,000
28 Mr. Hot Stuff Harty, Eoin $90,000
29 Imperial Council McGaughey, Shug $75,500
30 Atomic Rain Breen, Kelly $75,500
31 Join in the Dance Pletcher, Todd $67,500
32 Procede Bee Gestes, Terry $47,000
33 Take the Points Pletcher, Todd $85,000
34 Feisty Suances Vienna, Darrell $40,000
35 Bear's Rocket Baker, Reade $36,000
36 Poltergeist VonHemel, Donnie K. $30,000
37 Lime Rickey Alexander, Frank $30,000
38 Uno Mas Asmussen, Steve $28,000
39 Gone Astray McGaughey, Shug $27,500
40 Nowhere to Hide Zito, Nick $27,000
41Rendezvous Hollendorfer, Jerry $24,000
42 Jeranimo Pender, Michael $24,000
43 Parade Clown Ball, Katherine $23,500
44 Patena Dutrow, Rick $20,000
45 Soul Warrior Asmussen, Steve $18,000
46 Ventana Baffert, Bob $16,600
47 Captain Cherokee Asmussen, Steve $15,000
48 Brave Victory Zito, Nick $14,833

Not that it matters, but where's Giant Oak?

I think Giant Oak was at 74,000 and he
got 2nd....

Jeez, he probably passed Dunkirk.
Atomic Rain and Imperial Council also.
No. Prize money dwindles thank god.

32 Atomic Rain $77,500 William L. S. Landes III, Laura Landes & Sarah Landes (KY) Kelly Breen George and Lori Hall
34 Imperial Council $72,500 G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY) Shug McGaughey Sequoia Racing 5th, Wood Memorial

1 Regal Ransom $1,250,000
2 Pioneerof the Nile $1,193,250
3 Square Eddie $774,981
4 Desert Party $641,667
5 I Want Revenge $774,000
6 Quality Road $600,000
7 Friesan Fire $570,465
8 Musket Man $485,000
9 Terrain $410,830
10 West Side Bernie $385,160
11 Chocolate Candy $370,000
12 Old Fashioned $330,000
13 Hold Me Back $288,000
14 Bittel Road $211,000
15 Justwhistledixie (f) $210,000
(14) 16 Win Willy $180,000
(15) 17 Giant Oak $169,256
(16) 18 Papa Clem $160,000
(XX) Maafaz (KDKC)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 Charitable Man $150,000
(17) 19 Dunkirk $150,000
22 Mine That Bird $138,705
(18) 23 Theregoesjojo $133,063
24 Beethoven $132,494
(19) 25 General Quarters $130,645
(20) 26 Mr. Hot Stuff $114,000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
27 Stormalory $112,838
28 Flying Private $94,000
29 El Crespo $90,000
29 Flying Pegasus $90,000

31 Take the Points $85,000
32 Atomic Rain $77,500
33 Just A Coincidence $75,000
34 Imperial Council $72,500
35 Join in the Dance $67,500
36 Hello Broadway $63,860
37 Nowhere to Hide $55,500
38 Feisty Suances $55,000
39 Proceed Bee $47,000

40 Massone $40,000
40 Sumo $40,000
42 Stately Character $37,500
43 Bear's Rocket $36,000
44 Justdontcallmejeri $30,000
44 Poltergeist $30,000
46 Buzzin and Dreamin $25,000
47 Jeranimo $24,000
47 Rendezvous $24,000
49 Parade Clown $23,500

50 Bee Cee Cee $20,000
50 Patena $20,000
52 Captain Cherokee $15,000
53 Flat Out $12,500
53 Masala $12,500
55 He's Really Big $12,000
56 Kelly Leak $9,000

What would happen if two were tied at #20?

I THINK it goes to overall stakes earnings.

Coin flip?

It's actually top 19 plus that European auto qualifier.

IF the Euro decides to run...

I would be shocked if he dindn't run no matter how poorly he runs in the Blue Grass due to the fact he gets a 100K bonus just for running in the Derby.

It's a Shadwell horse and honestly I'm not sure a $100k bonus is going to make Sh. Hamdan or break him. He's indicated that he'll need a good run in the BG to go to Louisville.

But do the two Godolphins (Regal Ransom/Desert Party) and one Shadwell (Mafaaz) all enter, if it keeps a Coolmore (Dunkirk) horse on the outside looking in? Shades of Danthebluegrassman??

I doubt the Sheikhs are that vindictive. The Magnier colors appeared in Dubai for the first time this year and found the winner's enclosure twice.

So with Maafaz and the two from Dubai, only the top 17 on the earnings list would go.

Did I read somewhere that one of the Dubai colts might be held out until the Preakness?

--Dunbar

Well, the two from Dubai are part of the top 20. Godolphin has indicated they may hold one back for the Preakness (most likely, Regal Ransom) but if they are both doing well, they might go with both of them in the Derby.

Ky Derby graded earnings list..Wow
 

I looked at the list on E-dailey this a.m., and realized for the first time this is a quality bunch this year. I could go 15 deep and probable make a case for each. The last 2 week-end preps has shown this is wide opened and could be some nice odds with legitmate picks.

1 Regal Ransom $1,250,000
2 Pioneerof the Nile $1,193,250
3 Square Eddie $774,981
4 I Want Revenge $774,000
5 Papa Clem $760,000
6 Desert Party $641,667
7 Quality Road $600,000
8 General Quarters $595,645
9 Friesan Fire $570,465
10 Old Fashioned $530,000

11 Musket Man $485,000
12 Hold Me Back $438,000
13 Terrain $448,330
14 West Side Bernie $385,160
15 Chocolate Candy $370,000
16 Win Willy $230,000
17 Giant Oak $169,256
18 Charitable Man $150,000
19 Dunkirk $150,000
20 KDKC* Maafaz
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Theregoesjojo $133,063
22 Flying Private $119,000
23 Massone $115,000
24 Mr. Hot Stuff $114,000
25 Summer Bird $100,000
26 Join in the Dance $90,000
26 Flying Pegasus $90,000
27 Take the Points $85,000
28 Atomic Rain $77,500
29 Just A Coincidence $75,000
30 Imperial Council $72,500
31 Hello Broadway $63,860
32 Nowhere to Hide $55,500
32 Feisty Suances $55,000
34 Proceed Bee $47,000
35 Sumo $40,000
36 Stately Character $37,500
37 Bear's Rocket $36,000
38 Justdontcallmejeri $30,000
39 Poltergeist $30,000
40 Buzzin and Dreamin $25,000
41 Jeranimo $24,000
42 Rendezvous $24,000
43 Parade Clown $23,500
44 Bee Cee Cee $20,000
45 Patena $20,000
46 Captain Cherokee $15,000
47 Flat Out $12,500
48 Masala $12,500
49 He's Really Big $12,000
50 Kelly Leak $9,000
51 Danger to Society $0

Think of how much fun it would have been if Regal Ransom, Desert Party, Vineyard Haven and Midshipman had stayed in the US each with their original trainer.

Since it looks like Dunkirk will get in, who gets the mount?

Will Gomez give it up for POTN?

If so, will Prado get it back?

Julian Leparoux was red hot at the Churchill fall meet last year. He deserves a look as Pletcher is
still looking for his first Derby win.

What's with all these horses running in the Alaska Derby? Is that graded?

I was looking at the earnings list at the top of this page and thinking "I wonder which of these horses are running this weekend". Then I scroll down and see the answer. Thanks for putting the info together, kasept.

--Dunbar

is patena still on the the derby trail??

Both Charitable Man and Dunkirk have $150k in total stakes earnings. Does Dunkirk get the edge because he earned them in a G1 or does Charitable Man get it because he got them in a winning performance?

(This point will probably be moot as CM is expected to race this weekend and even if he finished 5th he'll probably get earnings. Interesting question though.)