Well we agree on 1 at least!

unc you are not adding in the vegas public $ 3 points - i think you are too low



Pitt- actually suprised by your choice this as i could never see vegas letting Pitt only give 4 to a Mid Major and 'vill give six to the runner up in the acc

but at least you give an opinion on here thx

The pure predictor comes up with pretty interesting lines:

North Carolina (-2.5) Gonzaga (I guess -6)
Louisville (-3.5) Wake Forest (I guess -4)
Connecticut (-3.5) Washington (I guess -5)
Pittsburgh (-6) Xavier (I guess -7)

I think Wake is as likely to lose in the first round as they are to somehow make the Elite Eight. That team started out great, but definitely came back to earth a bit coming down the stretch.

Has anybody read the Giant Killers blog on ESPN at all? I wasn't high on them earlier, but after reading some stats, I'd be shocked if KU makes it past the first weekend.

Opining on other early matchups:

Oklahoma smells like a team that loses early. They rely a ton on FT differential, and with Griffin's recent travails, I'm not certain they're as good as the other #2 seeds.

Missouri is sneaky good, and if anything is their downfall, it's tourney inexperience. Ditto West Virginia but with the tourney experience - they're just flat out pretty darn good. If I'm KU, I'm desperately hoping WVU somehow gets knocked off by Dayton lest I not make it to Indianapolis.

The 7-10 games are all really crappy power conference teams playing other really crappy power conference teams. I wish at least a couple of those teams were something other than Cal or Michigan.

Illinois is going down.

Villanova turns the ball over way too often to have anything longer than a Sweet 16 run.

Temple is making the Sweet 16.

Anyway, I could prognosticate forever and probably be wrong about 3/4 of the stuff I just wrote. This is the best time of the year, guys.

yes - but you know what i am glad they did , they are your age joey, what do you think the boys did down in miami the night before ??? 'ville doesn't have an excuse for south bend ain't no miami

i have to hope that they learned thier lesson and will let az , clev st and utah hit collins ave wed and thursday nite:eek: :eek:

So it's a good thing that Wake is a young, immature team?

I don't really care about the Sweet 16 lines right now, I just don't think Wake is as good as you're making them sound.

More likely they had too much fun last time to stay in this time.

there are not many teams in the country that could beat duke and unc

will see they have hopefully 2 games in miami this weekend hopefully the coach will keep them in check , kids are kids and can find ways to sneek out at night as you know , maybe that 27 pt loss was a blessing!

And even fewer that could beat both and lose to Harvard.

my opinion of them is that they are as good or better than any of the big 12 teams that are #3 seeds at this stage

you can't tell me that their win over caroina isn't better than anything that anyone did in the big 12 this year and their wins over carolina / duke at home looks better than louisville splitting with conn and pitt at home

I think the Big 12 sucks and have been saying so all year. Even on my brackets that don't give bonus points for upsets I am taking North Dakota State over Kansas. I saw Cornell play Siena and they are truly pathetic so Missouri will get one win but they won't get past Marquette even down a man. I'd have had no problem with Wake getting a 3 but if they want to guarantee themselves a 3 while going 11-5 in conference they better start scheduling more than one game they can possibly lose in the entire non-conference schedule. I have no sympathy for power conference teams that schedule cupcakes in the nonconference and then get seeded poorly. Syracuse was rewarded this year with a 3 for finally scheduling some legitimate non-conference opponents (including Kansas in KC and at Memphis) after years of getting seeded low due to the cupcake non-conference schedule.

Pitt's ASM is 17.5, Xavier's 12.5. Factoring in the neutral court and Pitt generally being a not-well-liked wagering team PLUS their poor history in the sweet 16 I think any more than -4 and the books would get loaded up by the sharps on the dog.

I've spent several tournaments in Vegas and one of the things I've noticed is the Sweet 16 lines are ALWAYS a lot tighter than you would expect. The dumb money has gone home after the 2nd round and the favorites end up being a bucket or two less than you would expect.

Why would North Carolina possibly be considering playing Lawson against Radford?

chuck - you have blown my cover , i'm seth davis in disguise!

I dont know how important the seedings
really turn out to be unless you happen to
get to play early, possibly shaky rounds at
a familiar site (especially if you lost early in
the conf. tourney). I would think that a coach would
desire a good matchup as much as anything.

For instance: I think Texas has a horribly difficult
time against faster guard oriented teams that press.
Bigger teams, that are patient and relatively non aggressive
on D, is the type of team they want, the seed is not
as important. Playing a Big 10 team for Texas is a
good matchup(Minnesota possibly being almost a
hand picked opponent). But if they win, Duke will kill them.
UConn would be a much more desireable opponent even though
still not a good matchup.

But for teams that actually have a chance:

You have to know some of the coaches are very
cognisant of what type of team their personal and style
match up best against. Meeting what might be a less talented
(lower seeded team) team that plays a game that your
team has a difficult time with... ya might not like the draw.
Ya might wish to play a more talented team with a game
your team thrives against.