But in this case, the horse scratched before the pool was even open for betting. The bet should never have been accepted.

I think Linny is most likely correct--the bettor will probably get the favorite at the time the pool closes. But what happens if the favorite happens to be the other horse in the exacta? Go to next favorite?

--Dunbar

I see your point, but my guess is refund and no substitution.

Here's what happened:

Some simulcast outlet somewhere accepted exacta bets early, before the pools opened. Some of these bets were on Big Drama, and some were in $1 increments, which is not allowed because it is a $2 minimum bet.

CD is trying to determine where the bets came from and get them out of the system.

Also, it seems the "system" is allowing $1 base bets, which was not the intention. It was supposed to be a $2 minimum.

What's the expected handle on the future-exactas and what's your guess?

I'd like to see $250k.

I think it would take a miracle to reach $250k, considering there's only been about $15k so far.

My guess is $100,000-$120,000.

I agree. My guess is 120K.

Also, CD has taken the exacta odds off the live odds page.

--Dunbar

I Want Revenge (55/1) was the largest priced individual horse of the 23 in Round #1.

Big Drama was the 2nd highest price at 48/1 ... yeah maybe he shouldn't have been back again on account of no subsequent race.

The panel should have one job and one job alone ... and that's to determine who the 23 horses likely to take the most money are - and place them as the 23 entries in the bet.

It's as simple as that. There job isn't to determine who is a sprinter and who is a router. Afleet Alex lost the first several route races of his career - and looked like a sprinter going into the Ark Derby - it didn't stop him from winning the Belmont with ease.

TheGreek has put its fixed odds futures back up. Again, there are just 23 entries, corresponding exactly to the horses in KDFW Pool 2. Here are the odds at TheGreek both before and after yesterday's preps:

Bears Rocket 45.5 80.5
Beethoven 35.5 25.5
Big Drama 0 0
Chocolate Candy 40.5 32.5
Desert Party 14.15 16.15
Dunkirk 13 10.15
Flying Pegasus 35.5 60.5
Friesan Fire 18.15 10.15
General Quarters 30.5 60.5
Giant Oak 25.5 52.5
Hello Broadway 25.5 40.5
I Want Revenge 12 8.25
Imperial Council 25.5 25.5
Old Fashioned 8.45 10.15
Papa Clem 40.5 40.5
Patena 25.5 40.5
Pioneer of the Nile 13.25 14.15
Quality Road 18.15 14.15
Silver City 60.5 85.5
Take the Points 60.5 80.5
The Pamplemousse 20.5 14.25
Theregoesjojo 30.5 30.5
West Side Bernie 40.5 30.5
Any Other Horse 4.85 3.45

The top horses that didn't run yesterday (Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Pamplemousse, Quality Road) have all had their odds come down substantially.

This odds set at TheGreek has a "takeout" of 15.7% compared to the 9.7% "takeout" of the earlier odds.

The Pamplemousse is 14-1 at TheGreek, but just 8-1 currently in the KDFW. Dunkirk is 10-1 at TheGreek but just 6-1 now in the KDFW. Conversely, I Want Revenge is 8.25-1 at TheGreek but is now 10-1 in the KDFW. All Others is 3.45-1 at TheGreek, but is 6-1 in the KDFW.

--Dunbar

Dabbled with a few exacta boxes....2-21 / 6-20 / 12-22 / 13-24 / 14-11/15
went with the 13 & 20 in the Derby futues and the 10 in the Oaks. What the heck!

I tried to do an all others with all others exacta box and they wouldn't let me.:D

From what I understand you can only use it once.

FINAL POOL 2 ODDS

1 Bears Rocket Reade Baker 50 99
2 Beethoven John Ward, Jr. 30 23
3 Big Drama David Fawkes SCR
4 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 29
5 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 17
6 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 12 7
7 Flying Pegasus Ralph Nicks 20 65
8 Friesan Fire J. Jones 12 8
9 General Quarters Mark Miller 30 80
10 Giant Oak Chris Block 20 42
11 Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg 30 69
12 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 10 10
13 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 20
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 8 8
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 15 65
16 Patena Richard Dutrow Jr. 15 71
17 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 12
18 Quality Road James Jerkens 12 14
19 Silver City W. Calhoun 30 99
20 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 77
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 9
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 15 19
23 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen 30 43
24 All Other Three Ye 8 9/2

I really dont see a good bet. Alot of Underlays...but NO VALUE.

Take the Points and Patena look like they offered value.

Desert Party looks like value to me.

Patena offers value if you're not afraid of playing a horse with very little in graded earnings, and only having one prep left which he'll have to come in first or second to even qualify

Anyone have the actual will-pays? Big difference between 4.5-1 and 4.9-1. Between 7-1 and 7.9-1.

--Dunbar

Why would anyone in their right mind trust a "system" like that? Accepting bets they can't honour??? Isn't that close to money-laundering?

Huh? It's about as close to a fig newton as it is to money-laundering.

--Dunbar

$104k, good call. I guess I was way too optimistic that it would be completely "new" money, figuring $350k in the win pool and maybe 75% of that in the exacta pool. I guess relatively speaking total handle between the two bets was decent at $380k which is up 20% from last year and in this economy that's like being up 100%!

Actual willpays are up on the Kentuckyderby.com website. Dunkirk closes as the individual favorite, LOL. Side note, any idea what the hell that guy is talking about money laundering?!?

Wow, my near 30-1 on Flying Pegasus and Silver City from pool 1 look kind of pathetic now.

Oops.

I took a stab with Quality Road. Was hoping for better performances by the weekend favorites, but I'll take the 14-1.

Thanks for the heads up on the will-pays, phil. btw, I'm no relation to Dunkirk!

Not a clue. That's why I said it made as much sense as saying there was a fig newton involved.

--Dunbar

the smallest exactas are over $100GOING UP TOOVER 3000

One article I read before Pool 2 said that CD was using the exacta pool as a guage of how much interest there is to expand the pools to more horses. Not sure of that reasoning, but if they adhere to it, there's nothing to suggest they should expand the number of horses.

The 104K exacta pool (nice call on the pool size, Justin!) was hardly inspiring, and it probably contributed to the decline in the win pool by $50K from last year's already low amount. But I don't think there's strong correlation between exacta betting and bettors' interest in betting more horses in the futures.

I think expanding the number of horses is a bad idea for a different reason. In Pool 1, "All Others" attracted more than $134,000 of the $478,721 of bets in the pool. Does anyone really think that the added horses, most of which will be showing odds of 100-1 or more, will attract $134K of action to offset the loss of "All others"? Extremely small chance of that happening, IMO.

--Dunbar

Honestly, I totally disagree.

First off, the exacta pool being used as a gauge to whether or not additional horses would be of interest to bettors seems crazy? I see no correlation between an exacta offering insight into potential interest in a 400 horse pool.

Secondly, the appeal of more horses is the prices and diversity. A line-up of 400 horses with some horses at 700-1 will most certainly garner and generate interest.

There is some validity to the thought that the amount of win $ bet on the field and whether or not it would spread to other interests, but in my opinion, it's completely offset by the spark and interest the higher priced horses, larger options and infinite additional options you can generate from it.

Not sure I agree. Down 15% isn't necessarily a bad number in this economy especially considering the overall gain including the exactas.

Race wagering overall is down... the economic indicator emails I receive from Equibase being down 15% in a pool/wager like this is not that crazy given the playing field today.

How much money will someone bet on a 700-1 horse? $20? Or do they want to win more than $14,000.

Horses beyond the first 23 entries are only known by a very small % of the betting public. You may argue that the serious bettors will show up to bet. Again, though, how much will they bet on a 200-1 shot? Even a serious bettor is not likely to put up more than $50 on a 200-1 shot. Are there 2600 people in the country willing to suddenly show up and make bets like that? Because that's the number you'd need to offset the money that will NOT be bet on All Others. (or 1300 people, if each is going to find 2 horses to bet $50 on.) I don't think there are anywhere near that number.

At best I think it would be a wash in Pool 1. Now in Pool 2, the amount bet on All Others is smaller, so maybe that amount could be offset by opening up the number of entries. In Pool 3 the amount bet on All Others is smaller still, but so is interest in horses beyond the top 23.

--Dunbar

Pool 1 in 2009 was UP 9% over last year, Phil, bad economy notwithstanding. That's why I think the decreased win pool in Pool 2 was probably due to money siphoned off into the exacta pool.

--Dunbar

I'm wondering if problems placing the exacta bet contributed to the size of the pool. When I tried to place a bet using my NJ wagering account I'd get messages saying the races were closed for this track or pools not available and it would not allow me to bet. Drove over to Monmouth and tried to use the machines. When you tried to place a bet you could not get a "program" with the names to come up. You had to try to place a bet where you'd then get just the number & odds. At the time I only had the names written down and there wasn't a program or sheet available confirming horse & number. Finally one of teller supervisors was able to lend me a copy of the Pool 2 "program". So now I'm finally ready to place a few bets. For the exacta you could bet $1Box = minimum of $2. Problem I had was that the tab indicating "wrong amount" kept flashing so I gave up and placed $2 exacta boxes. This meant I had to spend more per bet and was not going to be able to cover some of the bets I wanted to. After placing 6 or so bets I asked the supervisor if I could see the sheet again. It clearly said you could place the $1 box for $2. So even though the amount error kept flashing at me I tried it anyway and of course it worked. Now I'm frustrated and mad about what happened and decided I was done with that. Keep in mind I was placing bets for what was supposed to just be fun. I had the family pick by names. I had planned to box several of those together, key a few and box some with the "Field". Instead I walked away angry and the pool did not get all I had planned to bet.