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-   -   This One's for Phil goes nuts... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27448)

The Indomitable DrugS 01-26-2009 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
Is that a serious question? You really lump Wolfson with the Dutrow's and Ness' s of the world? The man is a great trainer. He doesn't ever have 45% winners at a meet like the above and that says alot.

Paul

Yeah, he was just 53-for-131 (40% wins) with a $2.38 ROI with all starters in 2008 at high takeout Calder.

He was a mere 46-for-90 (51% wins) with a $2.96 ROI with all dirt starters at Calder in '08.

But you are right - anyone who takes washed up old claimers from Bill Mott and gets them to draw off in the Breeders Cup Mile should never be grouped with those others.

MISTERGEE 01-26-2009 09:22 PM

hahahahahahah, i laughed my ass off

The Indomitable DrugS 01-26-2009 09:39 PM

As for the 117 figure... it looks pretty cut and dry.

I think CJ pretty much covered the straight forward obvious way to look at it. Here's more of an esoteric way...

When Lost in the Fog won the '05 Sunshine Million Dash at GP - he ran 0.44 seconds faster than Alix M did in the F & M dirt sprint at the same distance 30 minutes later.

By comparison, This Ones for Phil ran 1.45 seconds faster than High Resolve did in the F & M dirt sprint one hour later.

Both Alix M. and High Resolve got 96 Beyers for those wins. LITF got a 102 and TOfP got a 117 .. as one full second at 6fs equals 15 Beyer points.

If you want to try and make a case that the track got much slower after TOfP ran ... well, thats a hard case to make, because the previous dirt races earlier on in the card all could have been timed with a sundial.

MISTERGEE 01-26-2009 09:47 PM

compound that with High Resolve ran an unbelievable great race as it is

SCUDSBROTHER 01-26-2009 10:09 PM

It's not a big deal for cappers, but it would be a lot more fun to cap the horse(than to cap the trainer.) Uh, the people who are gunna have to change this are the ones that have the most to lose(other trainers and owners.) BTW, is Ramsey giving horses to Dutrow yet?

the_fat_man 01-26-2009 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
It's not a big deal for cappers, but it would be a lot more fun to cap the horse(than to cap the trainer.)

Not for all the TRAINER 'cappers out there.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-26-2009 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Not for all the TRAINER 'cappers out there.

Who isn't a trainer capper?

VOL JACK 01-26-2009 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
Is that a serious question? You really lump Wolfson with the Dutrow's and Ness' s of the world? The man is a great trainer. He doesn't ever have 45% winners at a meet like the above and that says alot.

Paul

He did take a 6yo Meisques Approval, who was an Overnight Stake horse for BILL MOTT and turn him into a Breeders Cup Champ. He crushed a good group of horses that day. Had he faced the same group the year before, he wouldve been drowned.

MISTERGEE 01-26-2009 10:23 PM

long range problem is the owners who dont win the 30% of races with these guys will be knocked out of the game and for example in fla we will have a 3 horse stakes field with entries from maybe wesley ward, kirk ziadie and wolfson

the_fat_man 01-26-2009 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Who isn't a trainer capper?

ME, for one.

I also don't get an erection whenever a new gelding is announced.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-26-2009 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
ME, for one.

I also don't get an erection whenever a new gelding is announced.

You don't care that the trainer of a 2 year old maiden is Wesley Ward? You see that horse the same as one trained by Kathleen O'connell, or Phil Gleaves? Are you saying you just don't bet those races?

cakes44 01-27-2009 08:02 AM

I hate to answer for the fat man, but the guys I know that focus mostly on trip-handicapping don't bet too many races with a bunch of first-time starters.

pweizer 01-27-2009 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK
He did take a 6yo Meisques Approval, who was an Overnight Stake horse for BILL MOTT and turn him into a Breeders Cup Champ. He crushed a good group of horses that day. Had he faced the same group the year before, he wouldve been drowned.


Miesque's Approval had won several stakes that year leading up to the Breeder's Cup starting with the Sunshine Millions Turf in January. He won the Eclipse that year because of the whole campaign. It is not like that win came from no where.

Paul

blackthroatedwind 01-27-2009 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
Miesque's Approval had won several stakes that year leading up to the Breeder's Cup starting with the Sunshine Millions Turf in January. He won the Eclipse that year because of the whole campaign. It is not like that win came from no where.

Paul


You're correct. Marty Wolfson did not just turn him around for a miracle win in the BC Mile. He also turned this 7YO claimer around for several wins in stakes. Just mentioning the BC doesn't do this particular miracle justice.

freddymo 01-27-2009 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Blistering column by Andy Beyer in DRF about work of Dutrow vis a vis the performance of 'Phil'. Indicts other 'supertrainers' as well.. Important read.

Latest supertrainer feat raises suspicion
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...9&subs=0&arc=0

Thoroughbred racing has become less a test of horses than it is a competition among trainers. The most successful have been dubbed "supertrainers" because they achieve results almost without precedent. They compile winning percentages that dwarf the records of horsemen enshrined in the Hall of Fame. They acquire horses and transform them in ways that history's greatest trainers never dreamed of. Accordingly, bettors disregard the normal logic of handicapping when they evaluate horses saddled by Rick Dutrow in New York, Bruce Levine or Jason Servis in New Jersey, Marty Wolfson in south Florida, Kirk Ziadie and Jamie Ness at Tampa Bay Downs, Jeff Mullins in California and countless other miracle workers.


Help us Steve please! Are you Milk or are you Meat? If you are going to defend guys like Dutrow and Wolfson and not call them out then why would you suggest Beyer's article is an important read?

Can you agree with Beyer and not denounce the likes of the chemists mentioned?

VOL JACK 01-27-2009 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
Miesque's Approval had won several stakes that year leading up to the Breeder's Cup starting with the Sunshine Millions Turf in January. He won the Eclipse that year because of the whole campaign. It is not like that win came from no where.

Paul

I never said the BC Mile win came from nowhere. He had a very solid campaign.
I was drawing the comparsion from the previous year. What the horse would have done in the same race 12 months earlier. ( before Marty Miracle)

King Glorious 01-27-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You're correct. Marty Wolfson did not just turn him around for a miracle win in the BC Mile. He also turned this 7YO claimer around for several wins in stakes. Just mentioning the BC doesn't do this particular miracle justice.

One of my great disappointments as a fan is not having had the chance to see what Wolfson could have done with horses like Theatrical and Cigar. He could have straightened out the mistakes that Mott was making and really made them special.

Linny 01-27-2009 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK
He did take a 6yo Meisques Approval, who was an Overnight Stake horse for BILL MOTT and turn him into a Breeders Cup Champ. He crushed a good group of horses that day. Had he faced the same group the year before, he wouldve been drowned.

MA was a very good 3yo grasser but had tailed off by the time Wolfson got him. He was offered for a $50k tag in the late fall of the year prior to his Mile win. I think it was his only race for a tag. That hardly makes him a "claimer" in the usual sense. Like how when Charismatic won the Derby and was hailed as a "former claimer." That said, I do agree that Wolfson overall, belongs in this category.

VOL JACK 01-27-2009 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
One of my great disappointments as a fan is not having had the chance to see what Wolfson could have done with horses like Theatrical and Cigar. He could have straightened out the mistakes that Mott was making and really made them special.


He surely would have had Cigar running on dirt.
He could have won the Jackie Wackie, my personal fav Stake, like 5 straight years.

Smooth Operator 01-27-2009 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
He has written this basic article a few other times. I'm glad he writes them, and I hope he continues to do so until things change.

Me too



Such distrust has corroded the very foundation of the sport. Honest owners are reluctant to invest in the game when they believe they can't compete with the cheaters. Many bettors have lost enthusiasm because the art of handicapping has become an exercise in guessing who has the best "juice." The public at large is alienated when it suspects that drugs are tainting the sport's greatest events. This is what happened in last year's Triple Crown series, and it could happen again in 2009.


Yeah, you can put me in that group, Andy.


Seeing the re-breaking, pharmacologically-altered freak known as Curlin nose the likely 'roid-free Street Sense in that '07 Preakness was really the last straw for me. Been playing poker ever since.


Seeing the freak get absolutely trounced at the first-ever 'roid-free Breeders' Cup by those two young Euros will always be one of my fondest memories, though...

parsixfarms 01-27-2009 10:14 AM

Let's not forget the wonders that Wolfson has performed with Slewfoundmoney, another Live Oak horse who couldn't get out of her own way with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

VOL JACK 01-27-2009 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
Let's not forget the wonders that Wolfson has performed with Slewfoundmoney, another Live Oak horse who couldn't get out of her own way with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Makes you wonder why Ms. Weber doesn't give Miracle Marty all her horses.
Why waste time and money with guys like Mott amd Malcolm Pierce.
Not to mention the biggest joke for a trainer in NY, John Kimmel.

Crown@club 01-27-2009 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Blistering column by Andy Beyer in DRF about work of Dutrow vis a vis the performance of 'Phil'. Indicts other 'supertrainers' as well.. Important read.

Latest supertrainer feat raises suspicion
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...9&subs=0&arc=0

Thoroughbred racing has become less a test of horses than it is a competition among trainers. The most successful have been dubbed "supertrainers" because they achieve results almost without precedent. They compile winning percentages that dwarf the records of horsemen enshrined in the Hall of Fame. They acquire horses and transform them in ways that history's greatest trainers never dreamed of. Accordingly, bettors disregard the normal logic of handicapping when they evaluate horses saddled by Rick Dutrow in New York, Bruce Levine or Jason Servis in New Jersey, Marty Wolfson in south Florida, Kirk Ziadie and Jamie Ness at Tampa Bay Downs, Jeff Mullins in California and countless other miracle workers.

What were the numbers on Ward's Notonthesamepage before his race on 1/3?

King Glorious 01-27-2009 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crown@club
What were the numbers on Ward's Notonthesamepage before his race on 1/3?

They aren't on the same page. Interestingly, all of these fast 3yo's are all racing 6f at Gulfstream.

freddymo 01-27-2009 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
They aren't on the same page. Interestingly, all of these fast 3yo's are all racing 6f at Gulfstream.

Where should they be from Beluah?

King Glorious 01-27-2009 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Where should they be from Beluah?

That wasn't quite where I was going. I was thinking more that maybe there's something with the timing of races there.

sumitas 01-27-2009 10:40 AM

A disturbing column by Beyer that points to the many miles this sport needs to go to remove the cheaters, permanently. One can't really appreciate the horses fully when juicers ply their trade .

parsixfarms 01-27-2009 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK
Makes you wonder why Ms. Weber doesn't give Miracle Marty all her horses.
Why waste time and money with guys like Mott amd Malcolm Pierce.
Not to mention the biggest joke for a trainer in NY, John Kimmel.

You can't lump Kimmel in with the others; he actually won a stakes race at Saratoga with Remarkable Remy for Live Oak.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-27-2009 11:12 AM

When the owner was gunna retire M APPROVAL, Wolfson begged to "let me try " with the horse. Almost like he knew (for sure) that he had the answer.

the_fat_man 01-27-2009 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
Let's not forget the wonders that Wolfson has performed with Slewfoundmoney, another Live Oak horse who couldn't get out of her own way with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Mott always thought highly of her. He just couldn't get her to run in the afternoon, for whatever reason. In her case, it was more 'psychological' than anything.

Still waiting for Wolfson to work his magic on Onoitsmymothernlaw.

Kasept 01-27-2009 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Help us Steve please! Are you Milk or are you Meat? If you are going to defend guys like Dutrow and Wolfson and not call them out then why would you suggest Beyer's article is an important read?

Can you agree with Beyer and not denounce the likes of the chemists mentioned?

I won't pretend I know what is going on in specific barns with specific horses. I don't consider it my job to indict or defend, so in answer to your question, I'm 'parve'. You heard me ask direct questions of Wolfson yesterday about 'move-up performance' and you heard his responses. Find another medium in the game where the questions are even asked..

I know some guys are taking advantages and pressing the envelope and I know others are using every skill a horseman has to maximize performance legally. I'm sure that some efforts that many label 'cheating' are actually horsemanship, and others identified as horsemanship are likely cheating.

Everyone draws their own conclusions based on their level of knowledge and depth of understanding. I try to add to the information base by bringing out all I can from those that will discuss the subject openly.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-27-2009 12:13 PM

Now you know who can replace Larry King (when he kicks it.)

zippyneedsawin 01-27-2009 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator
Seeing the re-breaking, pharmacologically-altered freak known as Curlin nose the likely 'roid-free Street Sense in that '07 Preakness was really the last straw for me. Been playing poker ever since.


Seeing the freak get absolutely trounced at the first-ever 'roid-free Breeders' Cup by those two young Euros will always be one of my fondest memories, though...


uh-huh. and the surface and fact that Curlin was clearly tailing off at the end of the year had nothing to do with it.

freddymo 01-27-2009 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
I won't pretend I know what is going on in specific barns with specific horses. I don't consider it my job to indict or defend, so in answer to your question, I'm 'parve'. You heard me ask direct questions of Wolfson yesterday about 'move-up performance' and you heard his responses. Find another medium in the game where the questions are even asked..

I know some guys are taking advantages and pressing the envelope and I know others are using every skill a horseman has to maximize performance legally. I'm sure that some efforts that many label 'cheating' are actually horsemanship, and others identified as horsemanship are likely cheating.

Everyone draws their own conclusions based on their level of knowledge and depth of understanding. I try to add to the information base by bringing out all I can from those that will discuss the subject openly.


I didnt realize you were Swiss..Sorry my bad

SCUDSBROTHER 01-27-2009 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I didnt realize you were Swiss..Sorry my bad

Actually, I thought it was an odd question. He gave the only answer anybody could(if they're in his situation.)

Revidere 01-28-2009 09:33 AM

Somewhere up there (or down there) Oscar Barrera is smiling on this topic.


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