The actual return is better than the expected return based on probability. im not smart enough to show you the math but it exists.

I found an interesting essay here

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wb.../pp_03.125.pdf

Music Note can't beat Tiz' Tough Sis (or whatever her name is)? LOL - and I mean no disrespect to that filly, either, who is very good.

you need to remember tho betsy, music note-if she goes to the bc-will be running on an AWT. that may well be the deciding factor. it's not who is the best horse this year, but who handles that track the best.

when they haven't faced each other, what else is there? sure, there could be other factors that help you decide..i like music note, but can she beat the older horses she will be facing, and horses who ran very well on an AWT? i think she's only run on natural surfaces so far, so that is a very big question mark.
as for rational--well, that was hrfan who you were talking to so good luck with that.

That's right - I do have to remind myself. I find it pathetic that we have to take into account this fake surface and who can handle it or not. It's frustrating because in this instance I have no clue if MN will take to it. If the race were to be run on a regular dirt track, I could just accept the results as it were. Now, we have a day where championships could be decided based on the results on a freaky sort of surface. It's really unfortunate.

True enough (the part I have bolded), but in MN's case, that's kind of hard to do. She apparently didn't get a great Beyer for yesterday's performance, but that would be almost impossible because she was out for a walk in the park. Let's say she got a fig in the mid 90s. On the face of it, that's not that good for a championship-type filly. However, if she had been allowed to run, I venture to say she would have run faster than 1:50 and change and she would have a higher figures. You're argument that (a) we don't know how MN will stack up against the very good older mares out there and (b) she's a ? on the surface are legitimate arguments. The #s argument in this case, though, just don't work here. Even the Alabama, which was a very good race, got a fairly low #, probably due to the very slow pace. I'm certainly not saying that Music Note is going to win the Distaff, but if she handles the surface, I would expect her to acquit herself well.

sure, a televised, paid workout isn't a good indication. but on bc day she'll be tackling a new surface and older horses-if she wins, she would deserve the top 3 yo filly nod imo.

What about if MN runs well in the Distaff and PS either loses or doesn't win impressively in the Cotillion? Man, that was a costly nose loss in the Alabama.

And if the races are held on a sealed, sloppy track, which places many horses at a disadvantage, you are willing to accept the results as definitive? Churchill Downs for years has been disparaged as a 'cuppy track', that not all horses 'take to'.

Note to the newbies: this is why we oldsters liked the previous way of determining champions - the entire campaign was taken into account, and performances on unsuitable surfaces discounted. Skip Away didn't like Churchill - no problem, he won a lot of races elsewhere. Some other champions couldn't handle wet tracks as well as dry. Well, if it was sloppy for the Woodward, it could be dry for the JCGC. Horse racing is not a tournament sport; there is no 'final' where a win determines the champion.

I would take a dirt track over a fake track any day of the week. Besides, did I say that the BC was the end all and be all? I don't think one race should be the deciding factor in a championship unless that is the only race where the competitors meet head to head. To me, head to head trumps all. Other than that, obviously the whole season has to count for something. Also, you used my point completely out of context. I was saying that if Music Note doesn't run well in the Distaff this year, I would be very frustrated because it's being run on a surface that she may not handle.....many horses don't handle it. If it were being run on dirt (even sloppy dirt) and MN didn't run well, I wouldn't be happy, but I could accept it a lot better.