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-   -   9/14: ALDEBUTANTE (Belmont) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24956)

Kasept 09-12-2008 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
From the looks of weather in NY this weekend, it may end up off the turf.

That would be fine.

Scav 09-12-2008 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
From the looks of weather in NY this weekend, it may end up off the turf.

Might end up being a blessing if they overfill.

She is bred out the ass for the slop.

pointman 09-12-2008 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Might end up being a blessing if they overfill.

She is bred out the ass for the slop.

Sounds good to me. If I am not mistaken, unless at least one is entered as MTO, there will be at least one AE if there are 13 entered. Good luck to all Dee Tee'rs on this draw!

Bigsmc 09-12-2008 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Might end up being a blessing if they overfill.

She is bred out the ass for the slop.

Scratch it down to about 6 fillies over the slop....

Scav 09-12-2008 12:36 PM

5th race, drew the 11 hole...I think...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20080914D

And if I read this right, we will need a jockey if the 14 draws in

And she is the #10 in the program, I think

Lots of I thinks...Confusing overnight

Bigsmc 09-12-2008 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
5th race, drew the 11 hole...I think...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20080914D

And if I read this right, we will need a jockey if the 14 draws in

And she is the #10 in the program, I think

Lots of I thinks...Confusing overnight

All of your I thinks are correct.

Scav 09-12-2008 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
All of your I thinks are correct.

I am turning into a knowledge MACHINE!!

Payson Dave 09-12-2008 01:24 PM

I've seen several of these training up here all summer...this not going to be an easy spot..:zz:

Kasept 09-12-2008 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
I've seen several of these training up here all summer...this not going to be an easy spot..:zz:

Were you expecting one?

Payson Dave 09-12-2008 01:36 PM

It would not have broken my heart to have avoided a couple of these....

Kasept 09-12-2008 01:44 PM

5th (3:07)

6 Furlongs (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $52,000

1 Miss World Hill C 118
3 Just Livin a Dream Maragh R 118 L
4 Gold Record Espinoza J L 118 FTL
1A Driven Snow Garcia Alan 118
5 Nan Prado E S 118 L
6 Warm Springs Girl Coa E M 118 L
7 Buck Sign Rodriguez R R 118 FTL
2 Green Pond Velazquez J R 118 FTL
8 Pumpkin Shell Velasquez C 118 L
9 Amber's Edge Sanchez J 118 L
10 Aldebutante Migliore R 118 FTL
11 Paradise Bound Castellano J J 118 FTL
AE 12 Miakoda Velazquez J R 118 FTL
AE 13 Pull Dancer Migliore R 118 FTL
MTO 2B Gemswick Park Velazquez J R 118 FTL

A-Coupled: Miss World and Driven Snow
B-Coupled: Green Pond and Gemswick Park

Kasept 09-12-2008 02:16 PM

DRF GRADED ENTRIES
FIFTH RACE Probable Post 3:07 EDT


6 Furlongs. Turf. 2-Year-Olds. Fillies. Maiden Special Weight. Purse: $52,000


2 Just Livin a Dream Maragh R 118 9-5
5 Nan Prado E S 118 5-2
15 Gemswick Park Velazquez J R 118 3-1
6 Warm Springs Girl Coa E 118 7-2
10 Amber's Edge Sanchez J 118 9-2
12 Paradise Bound Castellano J 118 15-1
13 Miakoda Velazquez J R 118 15-1
14 Pull Dancer Migliore R 118 15-1
8 Green Pond Velazquez J R 118 20-1
11 Aldebutante Migliore R 118 20-1
1 Miss World Hill C 118 30-1
4 Driven Snow Garcia A 118 30-1
3 Gold Record Espinoza J L 118 50-1
7 Buck Sign Rodriguez R R 118 50-1
9 Pumpkin Shell Velasquez C H 118 50-1
Coupled: Miss World and Driven Snow; Green Pond and Gemswick Park

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-12-2008 02:35 PM

good post imo..:$: :$: :$:

Danzig 09-12-2008 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I am turning into a knowledge MACHINE!!

change your name to magic eight ball...we'll flip you around and ask questions.

NoCarolinaTony 09-12-2008 03:28 PM

Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Scav 09-12-2008 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Yes, I agree. I would like to instill the "NO BETTING DT RUNNERS UNTIL 10 minutes to post" rule

If you aren't by your computer. DO A CONDITIONAL WAGER for ZERO MINUTES TO POST.

For the record, I have instilled a rule on myself "NO BETTING ANY OF CHUCKS RUNNERS AGAIN" to prevent riducule on myself and injustice to his owners :)

Kasept 09-12-2008 03:50 PM

DRF CLOSER LOOK
by Jim Kachulis


Miss World
Long series of half-mile breezes on view; her sire was 4 of 8, a winner of 173K; offspring of Berstein have won turf debut 14 out of 85 times; the dam lost only start and this is her only foal to race.

Just Livin a Dream
Tough beat last time in a quick affair; the sire was 7 of 14, a winner of 666K; dam was unraced; siblings include Presious Passion, winner of the G1 United Nations Stakes and 960K overall.

Gold Record
Gate breeze was fair she has hails form sprint specialist Concorde's Tune who banked 242K, whose offspring have won turf debut 15 of 166 times; the mom was a winner of 2 turf races and 40K; sib to Golden Concorde, 131K earner.

Driven Snow
Sired by Storm Cat who banked 570K in his career; his descendants have won initial grass assignment 69 out of 394 times; the dam was a 6-time turf winner who compiled 1.25 million; no winning sibs to report.

Nan
Closed with a rush in maiden voyage on the green then faded in main track try; her sire was a winner of 1.17 million while the dam won 17K; sib to 139K earner Heaven's Prospect; a yielding course would be an obvious plus.

Warm Springs Girl
Even first effort while favored; her sire was an excellent sprinter who banked 818K; the dam was a winner of 2 turf races and 202K; sib to Marastani who banked just under a half-million, nearly all of which was earned on the grass.

Buck Sign
Adds Lasix after dull debut in the mud; the sire was 8 of 18, 682K earner (all victories on the turf) whose offspring have won grass debut 2 of 53 times; the dam was 2 of 6, 27K earner and this is her sole foal to start.

Green Pond
Her sire was talented, a winner of 591K whose descendants have won turf debut 19 out of 165 times; the dam was a winner of 31K and this is her only foal to race.

Pumpkin Shell
Failed as the chalk last time after promising first run; her sire was a winner of 1.39 million, victorious in the G1 Haskell, whose offspring are zero for 4 in turf debuts; the dam was 2 of 6, 104K earner; sib to Pays to Dream, 377K earner.

Amber's Edge
Much more prompting speed exhibited second out; her sire was a winner of 1.26 million while the dam involved was a 3-time turf winner, 95K earner; no winning sibs to highlight.

Aldebutante
Begins with a bullet breeze; her sire banked a total of 1.73 million whose descendants have won first grass race 1 of 19 times; the dam was zero for 5; sib to 6K winner View of Roses.


Paradise Bound
She hails from Pulpit who banked a total of 728K who never tried the green; offspring of that sire have won grass debut 10 percent of the time; the dam was a winner of 164K, failed in sole turf try and this is her sole foal to race.

Miakoda
Her sire won 4 of 5 lifetime, 616K including victory in G1 Santa Anita Derby but Indian Charlie never tried the green; his offspring have won first grass try 18 out of 136 times; the dam was blanked in 12 starts and this is her lone foal to make it to the gate.

Pull Dancer
See Paradise Bound, above, for information about same sire; the dam involved was unraced; no winning sibs to report.

Gemswick Park
Hoping for more rainfall (a distinct possibility if forecasters are correct); comes back with Lasix after solid first run at huge odds; the sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 1.25 million; dam was a winner of 104K; sib to Queen's College, 66K earner; dangerous if Mother Nature cooperates.

Benny Leger 09-12-2008 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Is it possible that the 25-50 partners could influence the betting pools at tracks such as Kee, CD, Sar, Bel and AP ? I was thinking it was the thousands of folks that visit Derby Trail everyday and follow the progress of our runners on line.

Swale84 09-12-2008 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Definitely not talking out of turn on this. The DT runners do get hit hard and early. While the win odds often creep up after the first flash, i have no doubt that the bigger impact is in the exotic pools, where people will use a horse that is getting "smart money" that they otherwise would have ignored

Tom LaVoice 09-12-2008 09:29 PM

Where are we going to meet
 
Just wanted to check with everyone on where we are planning on meeting on Sunday for the races. We will be leaving Pittsburgh tomorrow morning and would like to know where to meet everyone at Belmont. Looks like the weather is going to be fine for our race and I am guessing it will be on the turf. Know it will be a tough challenge for our girl out of the 11 hole but hopefully a safe and good trip. Looking forward to meeting all on Sunday.

Tom LaVoice

AeWingnut 09-12-2008 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom LaVoice
Just wanted to check with everyone on where we are planning on meeting on Sunday for the races. We will be leaving Pittsburgh tomorrow morning and would like to know where to meet everyone at Belmont. Looks like the weather is going to be fine for our race and I am guessing it will be on the turf. Know it will be a tough challenge for our girl out of the 11 hole but hopefully a safe and good trip. Looking forward to meeting all on Sunday.

Tom LaVoice

Tom,

I don't know about the plans for Belmont - however, in the past - we would meet up in the paddock before every race. If no one tells you what hte plan is, I would try that.

cantknockthehustle 09-12-2008 10:22 PM

I will be there.

Flying up from Washington DC Sunday morning. I land at LGA at 10:45 am. Should anybody happen to be there around that time and interested in sharing a cab or car let me know.

Looking forward to the day.

Tyler

Tom LaVoice 09-12-2008 10:27 PM

thanks
 
I know at Arlington Scavs got us box seats (sweet) and then we all went down to the paddock together. Quite the site. Looking forward to seeing all the Dee Tee folks in the paddock but was just checking to see if we were all meeting before the paddock.

Kasept 09-13-2008 05:29 AM

In regards to everyone meeting, I will be deciding on arrangements later today. It looks like we will have a rather large group.

3kings 09-13-2008 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Tony,
I can't speak for others but it is often not possible for me to place wagers from my office 10 minutes before post time due to meetings or appointments. This is especially true when the races are mid-week and earlier on the card. I understand what you are trying to accomplish but I am sure there are others who are in my situation.

Kasept 09-13-2008 08:38 AM

A few notes... Will be leaving for Belmont around noon today.

Those making the trip to Belmont Sunday, I will get us a large block of seats in the Clubhouse and likely a few boxes. I expect we will be at least 24-28, and as many as 40-45 with friends, family, etc. Dee Tee or DTers ALL WELCOME...

I would suggest that attendees gather at about 12:30 on the big patio behind the Clubhouse by the fence that overlooks the Paddock walkway. (I will put up a "DEE TEE STABLES" sign by the area tomorrow morning to make it easier for people unfamiliar with Belmont to spot.)

From there we can do whatever we need to in terms of distributing tickets and organizing the afternoon's activity. (I'll have Stable caps and pins for those that haven't received them too..)

Hope everyone is looking forward to a fun day at one of the greatest venues in the entire world of sport.

More updating here as needed...

Thx!
Steve

pmacdaddy 09-13-2008 12:37 PM

Very cool Steve. Thanks!!!

NoCarolinaTony 09-13-2008 12:43 PM

Steve,

In the event I am running late due to air traffic issues, or traffic over from Newark I will call you to arrange to meet. Already excited about this event.

NCT

DT'ers
Sorry folks about talking about wagering. Should we be so fortunate to win, it would also be very profitable for us all if we don't pound the win odds so early, to keep the exotic bet value higher. If we can do that, it would be great. But you have to do what you have to do, I understand.

NC Tony

Payson Dave 09-13-2008 02:21 PM

Let's see if we stay on the turf.... and also who scratches...but imho as of now this is looking like a very tough spot...

kelster 09-13-2008 08:40 PM

Update
 
Arrived at Belmont for the 4th race, went to the barn met the hot walker he said she did well in the paddock, only spent a couple of minutes with Aldeb she was curious and seemed fine, not as outwardly friendly like sumwon however she looks vety intriguing. See everyone tomorrow will be there early to enjoy the events!!!!! Kelly & Martin

AeWingnut 09-13-2008 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kelster
Arrived at Belmont for the 4th race, went to the barn met the hot walker he said she did well in the paddock, only spent a couple of minutes with Aldeb she was curious and seemed fine, not as outwardly friendly like sumwon however she looks vety intriguing. See everyone tomorrow will be there early to enjoy the events!!!!! Kelly & Martin

pictures?

Cannon Shell 09-13-2008 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
A few notes... Will be leaving for Belmont around noon today.

Those making the trip to Belmont Sunday, I will get us a large block of seats in the Clubhouse and likely a few boxes. I expect we will be at least 24-28, and as many as 40-45 with friends, family, etc. Dee Tee or DTers ALL WELCOME...

I would suggest that attendees gather at about 12:30 on the big patio behind the Clubhouse by the fence that overlooks the Paddock walkway. (I will put up a "DEE TEE STABLES" sign by the area tomorrow morning to make it easier for people unfamiliar with Belmont to spot.)

From there we can do whatever we need to in terms of distributing tickets and organizing the afternoon's activity. (I'll have Stable caps and pins for those that haven't received them too..)

Hope everyone is looking forward to a fun day at one of the greatest venues in the entire world of sport.

More updating here as needed...

Thx!
Steve

The sign may not be necessary as 90% of the crowd may be in some way connected to DT.

hrfan 09-14-2008 04:56 AM

good luck guys, i hope she wins for you

SuffolkGirl 09-14-2008 06:43 AM

Heading out the door now from Boston to Belmont - see everyone in 4 hours or so.

MaTH716 09-14-2008 07:20 AM

Good Luck today for all involved. May she run well and come home safe. Enjoy the day guys!

TheSpyder 09-14-2008 07:23 AM

Next to Sumwon's first race this has to be the most exciting start for DT. Even though I'm not in on this one, with all the waiting and all the expectations of a good one and Mig up, I'm really hyped up to watch, especially starting her career at Belmont.

Wishing all the best....and have fun.

Spyder

Kasept 09-14-2008 08:07 AM

Race is off the turf...

pmacdaddy 09-14-2008 08:34 AM

Curious to see the scratches... Will we keep Mig if the #13 gets in?

PSH 09-14-2008 08:36 AM

Probably Not
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Curious to see the scratches... Will we keep Mig if the #13 gets in?

Good luck everyone at Belmont today.
Will be interesting to see how many scratches there are...
Also, i suspect some good jocks will be freed up from the scratches and we should end up with someone capable if Mig goes on the AE that draws in....

All and all it will be a smaller field and increases our chances...

PSH

pgiaco 09-14-2008 08:50 AM

Good luck to all involved. Nothing like a 2 year old debut. Will try to make it down today to cheer her on.


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