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-   -   Trying To Make Money On Big Brown Today... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24320)

GPK 08-04-2008 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
While I agree with you, look at the P4 yesterday at Monmouth and tell me that wasn't a missed opportunity, $900 per $1 with a 1/5, and two other horses that were until $12 (I think)

Silver Tree paid $5.80, another paid $12 and change and another paid $16 and change.

jms62 08-04-2008 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
While I agree with you, look at the P4 yesterday at Monmouth and tell me that wasn't a missed opportunity, $900 per $1 with a 1/5, and two other horses that were until $12 (I think)
Even 78 for the P3 @ 1.00 was very generous considering that 2 favorites won... That's the beauty of the big event days.

jms62 08-04-2008 10:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm being honest. It's been a massacre so far.
Hang in there. It can change with one swing of the bat. Just don't chase by upping your bets.

Coach Pants 08-04-2008 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm being honest. It's been a massacre so far.
Hey there are two turf sprints in the late pick 4 sequence today. :rolleyes:

Scav 08-04-2008 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Hey there are two turf sprints in the late pick 4 sequence today. :rolleyes:
Not only two turf sprints, but the great Mike Dini making an appearance at the Spa......

stonegossard 08-04-2008 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RollerDoc
You might be right. My X5 requires Premium Unleaded. I should factor in about $7.00 for gas. Boy am I stupid :) How come nobody on this board advised me against my strategy.

Hey at least I had fun watching the race and I don't think I lost anything. Big Brown finished strong and regardless of whether he is Travers, BCC bound or stud, he gave me a few thrills this summer.

For those of you calling him Big Crap, I think that is a little out of line. He still beat 19 horses in the KD from a post that nobody had in nearly a century. And his Preakness and FL Derby was not too shabby either.

Or maybe there is still something left in this horse.
Big Brown finished strong?

You mean Coal Play finsished weak. Big Brown didnt pass Coal Play. Coal Play passed Big Brown as he was collapsing. Anyone who thinks BB was impressive yesterday must have watched a different race. But hey.....congrats on your tri bet....2.70 profit. Muy impressivo.

RollerDoc 08-04-2008 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stonegossard
Big Brown finished strong?

You mean Coal Play finsished weak. Big Brown didnt pass Coal Play. Coal Play passed Big Brown as he was collapsing. Anyone who thinks BB was impressive yesterday must have watched a different race. But hey.....congrats on your tri bet....2.70 profit. Muy impressivo.
That would be 12.70 profit. Big deal...I know but I am a race fan not a gambler. I have enjoyed the journey with Big Brown this year and made several hundred on him throughout his races (most of it in the KD). It makes watching/rooting for him extra exciting. I will take 12.70 or hundreds in a race as a winner over losing any day.

And YES...Big Brown did finished strong. Strong enough to win. In the end, that's all that matters. I also saw a horse in Big Brown that had plenty left beyond the finish line as well. Big Brown was impressive yesterday after a long layoff and who knows what happened at The Belmont.

Danzig 08-05-2008 07:00 AM
no, he didn't finish strong. a front runner finally ran out of gas before the wire, benefitting big brown tremendously. talk about being in the right place at the right time.
and the gallop out many times is overrated. you do know horses never win a dime for winning the gallop out?

ArlJim78 08-05-2008 08:03 AM
since when is not running in a straight line and drifting out to the 10 path part of the definition of a strong finish?

Danzig 08-05-2008 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
since when is not running in a straight line and drifting out to the 10 path part of the definition of a strong finish?
since diehard big brown fans don't want to face reality.

jms62 08-05-2008 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
no, he didn't finish strong. a front runner finally ran out of gas before the wire, benefitting big brown tremendously. talk about being in the right place at the right time.
and the gallop out many times is overrated. you do know horses never win a dime for winning the gallop out?
The internet is a wonderful and funny thing. People read something and immediately jump on the bandwagon.
It is in vogue to call Big Brown's performance bad... A little due diligence provides a different story however.

Haskell 2008

1st call 46.59 (Second fastest in last 10 years)
2nd call 110.85 (5th fastest)
Final 148.31 (3rd fastest)

Come Home 37.46 (2nd fastest Not counting 2 lengths that Big Brown was behind at the half)

Beyer of 106 compares to Big Browns best...

How is this a bad performance ???

Coal Play ran the race of his life in setting the table for Cool Coal man who didn't deliver.

Antitrust32 08-05-2008 09:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
The internet is a wonderful and funny thing. People read something and immediately jump on the bandwagon.
It is in vogue to call Big Brown's performance bad... A little due diligence provides a different story however.

Haskell 2008

1st call 46.59 (Second fastest in last 10 years)
2nd call 110.85 (5th fastest)
Final 148.31 (3rd fastest)

Come Home 37.46 (2nd fastest Not counting 2 lengths that Big Brown was behind at the half)

Beyer of 106 compares to Big Browns best...

How is this a bad performance ???

Coal Play ran the race of his life in setting the table for Cool Coal man who didn't deliver.

Thank you for your voice of reason! We have some real big brown haters on this site.. and he could win the Breeders Cup this year and people (especially Danzig) will still talk ****.

Gander 08-05-2008 09:26 AM
I'm hardly a fan of Big Brown, I actually think the whole story stinks.
But I think he did very well to win this race. He could have easily given up but he grinded it out and won a 750K race. Wow, I wish I had the intuition to cheat people out of their money so I could buy a horse like this.

The Travers is coming up real weak. I dont think hes avoiding any of these cows. Its more of a timing thing and it makes total sense. Why rush a horse back to run in a glorified Grade 3 against crows hes already crushed?

Antitrust32 08-05-2008 09:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I'm hardly a fan of Big Brown, I actually think the whole story stinks.
But I think he did very well to win this race. He could have easily given up but he grinded it out and won a 750K race. Wow, I wish I had the intuition to cheat people out of their money so I could buy a horse like this.

The Travers is coming up real weak. I dont think hes avoiding any of these cows. Its more of a timing thing and it makes total sense. Why rush a horse back to run in a glorified Grade 3 against crows hes already crushed?
exactly... eventhough it was a 1 million dollar race!

who the hell would he avoid in the Travers? Hes beaten basically all the colts in his division already... save Harlem Rocker who I really doubt scares dutrow all that much.

Gander 08-05-2008 09:53 AM
If Harlem Rocker runs to all the hype, he will win the Travers under a hand ride. You can forget about getting a price on him. Mambo in Seattle is the other logical horse who is the up and comer, but may be an underlay in a race crying out for a bomb. I'm glad Pletcher ran Atoned in the Haskell (and not the Travers) because if he was in the Travers, I would have taken a huge shot with him. Man, he ran terrible. Stop like he had a piano dropped on him.

hoovesupsideyourhead 08-05-2008 09:59 AM
Anybody Think Frank S Will Bring Down A Good One..from Canada..

jms62 08-05-2008 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
If Harlem Rocker runs to all the hype, he will win the Travers under a hand ride. You can forget about getting a price on him. Mambo in Seattle is the other logical horse who is the up and comer, but may be an underlay in a race crying out for a bomb. I'm glad Pletcher ran Atoned in the Haskell (and not the Travers) because if he was in the Travers, I would have taken a huge shot with him. Man, he ran terrible. Stop like he had a piano dropped on him.
So you are basically saying it finally dawned on you that Atoned is GROSSLY overrated.. Hopefully it didn't cost too much to come to that conclusion.

Gander 08-05-2008 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
So you are basically saying it finally dawned on you that Atoned is GROSSLY overrated.. Hopefully it didn't cost too much to come to that conclusion.
No, I said I would have bet Atoned in the Travers, not the Haskell against Big Brown. I just cant bet on or against Big Brown, not since the Derby.
And I never thought he was talented, but he would have fit really well in the Travers against what will be a bunch of Grade 3 horses, which is what Atoned is. Overrated? Maybe. But isnt Pyro also very overrated? And Z Fortune? So too Court Vision? At least Atoned may have been a price.

Danzig 08-05-2008 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Thank you for your voice of reason! We have some real big brown haters on this site.. and he could win the Breeders Cup this year and people (especially Danzig) will still talk ****.
i don't hate big brown. but i don't see that he's that good either. since i don't worship the straw he walks on, i'm a hater? since i was more impressed with races earlier this year, i'm talking ****?

funny that those who agree with someone are a voice of reason, but others with a different point of view are just haters.

Danzig 08-05-2008 10:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I'm hardly a fan of Big Brown, I actually think the whole story stinks.
But I think he did very well to win this race. He could have easily given up but he grinded it out and won a 750K race. Wow, I wish I had the intuition to cheat people out of their money so I could buy a horse like this.

The Travers is coming up real weak. I dont think hes avoiding any of these cows. Its more of a timing thing and it makes total sense. Why rush a horse back to run in a glorified Grade 3 against crows hes already crushed?
it's not that it's a bunch of cows, so much as it is that big brown didn't finish two races back, and in this race was all out to beat a horse who is much less than those heading for the travers. had he not struggled on sunday, i think they would have considered the travers, and then train up to the bcc. i really think iavarone would have liked to showcase his colt at saratoga, but doesn't feel a lot of confidence based on how big brown ran on sunday.

stonegossard 08-05-2008 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RollerDoc
That would be 12.70 profit. Big deal...I know but I am a race fan not a gambler. I have enjoyed the journey with Big Brown this year and made several hundred on him throughout his races (most of it in the KD). It makes watching/rooting for him extra exciting. I will take 12.70 or hundreds in a race as a winner over losing any day.

And YES...Big Brown did finished strong. Strong enough to win. In the end, that's all that matters. I also saw a horse in Big Brown that had plenty left beyond the finish line as well. Big Brown was impressive yesterday after a long layoff and who knows what happened at The Belmont.

Correct me if I am wrong but didnt you put 30 bucks into the tri? It paid 32.70 right?

How is that 12.70 ?

BB didnt finish strong. Coal Play just stopped at the end. Watch on the turn as Desormeaux was geting into him....BB was goin nowhere....only made up ground as Coal Play finally gave in. BB passed a tired OPT Claimer.

BB has been impressive earlier this year when he destroyed bad fields. Now he is barely beating bad fields. Nice horse, but nothing special. Curlin will crush him if Dutrow is dumb enough to race vs him.

Gander 08-05-2008 10:23 AM
Did you guys watch the Jim Dandy? I dont see those horses as being a lot better than the horses Big Brown beat in the Haskell. I would maybe give them a slight edge, but shouldnt Pyro have won the Jim Dandy if he was half as good as the hyped that has surrounded him all year?
I'm not sold on Harlem Rocker being this super horse but he wont have to be to win this.

Gander 08-05-2008 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
it's not that it's a bunch of cows, so much as it is that big brown didn't finish two races back, and in this race was all out to beat a horse who is much less than those heading for the travers. had he not struggled on sunday, i think they would have considered the travers, and then train up to the bcc. i really think iavarone would have liked to showcase his colt at saratoga, but doesn't feel a lot of confidence based on how big brown ran on sunday.
His owners never considered the Travers. It was Dutrow who so badly wanted to run in the Travers and either way, its a moot point now.
I'm glad hes not coming. The hype would be annoying and obnoxious.

smuthg 08-05-2008 10:54 AM
Dutrow speaks...
 
How can Dutrow in his right mind even think of comparing Big Brown to Curlin...

I must have missed the quote "Curlin's never been out of the money, and Big Brown ran DFL in the biggest race of his life..."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/97017.html

Gander 08-05-2008 11:24 AM
I dont think its fair to say Big Brown is or isnt a great horse based on 1 bad day. And its not inconceivable to think he could have finished 3rd or 4th in the Belmont had Desormeaux not pulled him up.
Big Brown won 2 legs of the Triple Crown, and Curlin only 1. At least he didnt let a girl beat him. Big Brown would have walloped that field Curlin beat in Dubai, I dont think thats arguable.
Both very accomplished horsies. They'll never meet so any argument is moot and can never be proved. Also both owned by people I know I wouldnt trust with $5.

Gander 08-05-2008 11:49 AM
You dont think he could have beat that World Cup field? Can you even name another horse in the race? Trolling?

stonegossard 08-05-2008 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I know you're just trolling, but this is pretty amusing. Big Brown would have won in Dubai? I laughed, a lot.
Yeah....and that Big Brown didnt get beat by an icky girl. Most likely Curlin lost because he didnt want to run by her and get kooties.

Gander 08-05-2008 12:13 PM
Curlin is a great horse. In today's world hes a super horse. Not denying his ability but lets not pretend he hasnt lost races and had his fair share of days when he didnt fire his best shots.
I think hes better than Big Brown but I wouldnt laugh and ridicule someone who thought otherwise. I just dont think Curlin has done nearly enough to make the argument a stupid one.

ArlJim78 08-05-2008 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I dont think its fair to say Big Brown is or isnt a great horse based on 1 bad day.
It isnt that he had one bad day, its that his wins were nothing you would file under the category of great. Big Brown has done nothing that could be called great, in any of his races.

ArlJim78 08-05-2008 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Curlin is a great horse. In today's world hes a super horse. Not denying his ability but lets not pretend he hasnt lost races and had his fair share of days when he didnt fire his best shots.
I think hes better than Big Brown but I wouldnt laugh and ridicule someone who thought otherwise. I just dont think Curlin has done nearly enough to make the argument a stupid one.
you should, those two horses are on distinctly different levels. who is the best horse Big Brown defeated? Macho Again? Coal Play? there is no comparision. I don't know how an informed person can look at the company lines, speed figures, consistency of racing class etc, and come to a different opinion.

Gander 08-05-2008 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
It isnt that he had one bad day, its that his wins were nothing you would file under the category of great. Big Brown has done nothing that could be called great, in any of his races.
You have to be basing this solely on his competition, which I agree 100% sucks. But its not his fault they cant breed good 3 year olds anymore. His KY Derby win was fantastic imo. His Preakness a laugher, equally as impressive.

Again, I am not a fan of his nor his owners/trainer, and I do agree that Curlin is better. But to say he hasnt done anything great? By today's standards?
I think hes a really good horse and I wish he had more likeable connections.

ArlJim78 08-05-2008 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
You have to be basing this solely on his competition, which I agree 100% sucks. But its not his fault they cant breed good 3 year olds anymore. His KY Derby win was fantastic imo. His Preakness a laugher, equally as impressive.

Again, I am not a fan of his nor his owners/trainer, and I do agree that Curlin is better. But to say he hasnt done anything great? By today's standards?
I think hes a really good horse and I wish he had more likeable connections.
I don't think you should define greatness downward to suit the times, other wise it has no meaning. by historical standards Big Brown is not great imo.

ateamstupid 08-05-2008 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Curlin is a great horse. In today's world hes a super horse. Not denying his ability but lets not pretend he hasnt lost races and had his fair share of days when he didnt fire his best shots.
I think hes better than Big Brown but I wouldnt laugh and ridicule someone who thought otherwise. I just dont think Curlin has done nearly enough to make the argument a stupid one.
I don't remember Curlin having any 'bad days', which is pretty damn remarkable considering the schedule that he had last year. He never had any chance in the Haskell, because it was impossible to close any ground on that track.

If Big Brown raced the schedule that Curlin did at three, he wouldve collapsed in the Belmont even earlier than he did and never been heard from again.

I agree that Curlin's legend is being inflated a bit because of the lack of good handicap horses recently, but he's better than Big Brown. It's not even close.

Gander 08-05-2008 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
you should, those two horses are on distinctly different levels. who is the best horse Big Brown defeated? Macho Again? Coal Play? there is no comparision. I don't know how an informed person can look at the company lines, speed figures, consistency of racing class etc, and come to a different opinion.
Good question. Who is the best horse Big Brown defeated? Before seeing the Jim Dandy I would have said Pyro. But now I am not too sure. I'd have to give that to Macho Again.

Now what about Curlin? Street Sense or Lawyer Ron? What would you say? I would say Lawyer Ron.

Lawyer Ron would blast Macho Again, so I guess you are right.

SentToStud 08-05-2008 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
you should, those two horses are on distinctly different levels. who is the best horse Big Brown defeated? Macho Again? Coal Play? there is no comparision. I don't know how an informed person can look at the company lines, speed figures, consistency of racing class etc, and come to a different opinion.
Guess we will see if he runs a couple more times but figure me for one to laugh at too. He romped out of the 12 post at Gulf and rolled out of the 20 post in Louisville. I don't disagree that he hasn't beaten real god ones and he did clunk at the Belmont. But he looked dead beaten at the 1/4 pole last weekend and still got it done. It'll be interesting to see how he does vs older.

SniperSB23 08-05-2008 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Good question. Who is the best horse Big Brown defeated?
Eight Belles


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